Chef-de-Race: A.P. Indy
dkb/br.h., 1989 (Seattle Slew-Weekend Surprise, by Secretariat)
(January 8, 2008)

A.P. Indy, dkb/br.h., 1989 (Seattle Slew-Weekend Surprise, by Secretariat) is a classic example of a Thoroughbred expressing the full potential of his pedigree both on the track and in the breeding shed.  His sire, a Brilliant/Classic chef-de-race, won the Triple Crown, was named Horse of the Year, earned Eclipse Award championships at two, three and four and led the general, juvenile and freshman sire lists during his extraordinary stud career.  His dam, a Grade 3 stakes winner of over $400,000, was a Kentucky Broodmare of the Year and produced two classic winners (A.P. Indy and Summer Squall) and three successful sons at stud (A.P. Indy, Summer Squall and Honor Grades).

A.P. Indy represents the once ubiquitous Nasrullah sire line through Bold Ruler.  In recent years the Nasrullah branch of the Phalaris line has been overtaken by both the Northern Dancer and Raise a Native lines, although the branch through Seattle Slew and A.P. Indy remains vigorous.  Descendants of Nasrullah through Blushing Groom, Caro and Never Bend also continue to do very well in both North America and Europe. 

At two, A.P. Indy won three of four starts including the Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity and he was co-ranked the third best two-year-old of 1991 on the Experimental Free Handicap at 124 pounds, six pounds below the exceptional juvenile champion Arazi and one pound below Bertrando.  He won three Grade 1 races as a three-year-old, including the Breeders' Cup Classic, the Belmont Stakes and the Santa Anita Derby.  Not surprisingly, he was voted Horse of the Year and champion three-year-old colt in 1992.  He retired to stud with earnings of $2,979,815 from eight wins in eleven starts, among them six graded stakes victories.

A.P. Indy was an immediate success at stud getting thirteen stakes winners from his first crop of only 45 named foals.  He has never looked back, leading the general sire list in 2003 and 2006, placing among the top ten for ten consecutive years, among the top five seven times, and generating progeny earnings in excess of $7 million for nine straight years.  Through the beginning of January 2008, A.P. Indy is the sire of five champions and 108 stakes winners (11.3% from foals) of which 64 are graded stakes winners.  His progeny have earned about $90 million on the track and his yearling sales average is close to $550,000.  With those credentials, his $300,000 stud fee seems appropriate.

A.P. Indy's roster of Grade 1 winners is extensive and includes Horse of the Year Mineshaft and classic winners Bernardini and Rags to Riches.  The average winning distance of his runners in North American open stakes races is 8.71 furlongs, placing him among the more stamina-oriented sires currently standing.  Only 8.2% of his progeny stakes wins have been at seven furlongs or less.  42.4% have been between 7 1/2 and 8 1/2 furlongs and 49.4% have been at nine furlongs or more.  15.2% of the stakes wins have been at the American classic distances of 9 1/2, 10 or 12 furlongs.

In addition to achieving outstanding success as a sire of runners, A.P. Indy is also emerging as a top class broodmare sire, ranking 13th in 2006 and 12th in 2007 on the general broodmare sire list.  Among the best runners to date produced by his daughters are champion Wait a While and Grade 1 stakes winners Bluegrass Cat and Any Given Saturday.

Equally important is A.P. Indy's performance as a sire of sires.  In 2007, four of his sons ranked among the top 100 on the general sire list: Pulpit, Malibu Moon, Stephen Got Even and Golden Missile. 

Regardless of stellar statistics in the breeding shed, assignment as a chef-de-race requires a demonstration of prepotence for type.  Outstanding performance at stud does not guarantee that a particular type is being transmitted by a sire to his descendants with any degree of predictability.  Since the purpose of Dosage is to enhance our understanding of the relationship between Thoroughbred pedigrees and performance on the track by facilitating the aptitudinal interpretation of a pedigree, aptitudinal prepotence is the most important factor we consider.  On the other hand, it is important to understand that the purpose of contemporary Dosage methodology is not merely to acknowledge superior breeding success, a fact the public often ignores.  In any case, one way to observe prepotence is to compare the Dosage figures for a population of runners having a common ancestor with the figures for a control group, in this case the general population of Thoroughbred stakes winners.  Twenty-five years of accumulated data have allowed us to define the relationship between Dosage figures and average winning distance.  If we observe a sub-population in which the Dosage figure/distance relationship deviates significantly from the same relationship established by the breed at large, we may find that the difference is attributable to the aptitudinal prepotence of the common ancestor.

To that end, we analyzed the data from over 300 open North American stakes races in which A.P. Indy or any of several of his leading sons is the sire or broodmare sire of the race winner.  The average winning distance (AWD) of these races is 8.51 furlongs with an average winner's Dosage Profile (DP) of 8.58-3.86-12.14-0.50-0.34, average Dosage Index (DI) of 2.85 and average Center of Distribution (CD) of 0.79.

The predicted DI and CD values at an average winning distance of 8.51 furlongs are 2.78 and 0.62, respectively.

The difference in average DI between the sub-population (i.e., stakes winners with A.P. Indy as a common ancestor) and the control group is minimal; however, the difference in average CD (the more accurate statistical tool) is significant.  The objective, then, is to identify aptitudinal prepotence attributable to A.P. Indy that brings the Dosage figures for the sub-population closer in line with the predicted values derived from the general population.  

An Intermediate/Classic (I/C) chef-de-race designation for A.P. Indy revises his descendants' average figures to DP 8.58-9.93-18.21-0.50-1.34, average DI 2.87 and average CD 0.69.  These changes create a much better alignment between the sub-population and the control group.  A direct result of the assignment is a change in the contribution A.P. Indy makes to the DP of his offspring: from 5-3-8-0-0 (equivalent to DI 3.00 and CD 0.81) to 5-11-16-0-0 (equivalent to DI 3.00 and CD 0.66).  This adequately reflects a greater contribution of stamina than previously acknowledged in the Dosage figures of his descendants.

The reader will note that the revised average CD of 0.69 is still marginally higher than the predicted average of 0.62.  However, the slight shift toward speed is consistent with the fact that A.P. Indy's AWD is longer than that of any of his prominent sons or of his daughters as a group.  In other words, although A.P. Indy is clearly a strong source of stamina, there is some speed being passed along to his next generation descendants.  This is evident from the following table.

With an Intermediate/Classic designation, A.P. Indy becomes the 208th chef-de-race.