Three Chefs-de-Race:
Fappiano, Dr. Fager, and Rough'n Tumble
(August 3, 1998)

Occasionally something appears bearing the mark of future greatness and then is taken away before the promise is fulfilled. One such shining light was the stallion Fappiano, a 1977 son of Brilliant/Classic chef-de-race Mr. Prospector out of Killaloe, by Dr. Fager. He died at age thirteen, but from just nine crops of racing age, Fappiano sired forty-eight stakes winners from 410 foals (12%). His Grade 1 level winners include Aptostar, Cahill Road, Cryptoclearance, Defensive Play, Grand Canyon, Quiet American, Rubiano, Serape, Some Romance, Tappiano, Tasso, and Unbridled. Fappiano’s lifetime Average-Earnings Index (AEI) is an exceptional 4.52, measured against a Comparable Index of 3.02. In addition, the average earnings of his starters is an astronomical $105,000, placing him sixth among all sires with North American runners in 1997. Two of his sons, both with just their fourth crop currently racing, have emerged as major sires. They are Kentucky Derby-G1 winner Unbridled, he the sire of Derby winner Grindstone, and Quiet American, winner of the NYRA Mile Handicap-G1 and the sire of champion Hidden Lake and Derby/Preakness winner Real Quiet. Several other sons, including Cryptoclearance, Pentelicus, Cahill Road, Fappavalley, Rubiano, and Defensive Play also have demonstrated the ability to sire high quality runners.

Fappiano’s record as a broodmare sire is equally impressive. Through early 1998, his daughters had produced 525 foals and forty-one stakes winners (8%), among them the Grade 1 fillies Capote Belle and Storm Song. Fappiano’s AEI as a broodmare sire is an excellent 2.29, with a Comparable Index of 2.08.

To put his stud record in perspective, Fappiano’s sire statistics placed him tenth in my ranking among all sires of North American runners with at least fifty lifetime foals of racing age through 1997. That’s good enough to position him between Pleasant Colony and Seattle Slew. On the broodmare sire side, he ranked fourteenth, between Hail to Reason and Round Table. Certainly this level of performance places him among the premier sires of his generation.

To determine the prepotent aptitudinal influences contributed by Fappiano to his descendants, we examined over 200 open stakes races since 1983 where Fappiano or one of his sons is the sire, or where Fappiano is the broodmare sire of the winner. In other words, Fappiano is the one constant in the pedigree of all the winners of these races. At an average winning distance of 7.84 furlongs, the Dosage figures for these winners are average DP 10.81-3.62-9.34-1.13-1.14, average DI 3.37, and average CD 0.86. The comparative standards for distance established by almost 15,000 stakes winners since 1983 are as follows. At seven furlongs: average DP 9.11-5.19-8.99-1.37-0.73, average DI 4.06, and average CD 0.84. At eight furlongs: average DP 8.28-4.83-9.97-1.81-0.94, average DI 3.30, and average CD 0.71. The predicted numbers for Fappiano’s descendants, based on an extrapolation of these figures are average DI 3.42 and average CD 0.76. Although there is good agreement with the average DI value, the average CD of Fappiano’s runners is more typical of six-and-a-half to seven furlong performers than of the near milers they actually are as a group. The challenge, then, is to identify aptitudinal placements that best bring the figures for Fappiano’s descendants in line with the general population having similar performance characteristics.

It quickly became apparent that no placement of Fappiano alone would adequately satisfy the requirements for bringing this sub-population of runners in line with the population at large. A balanced relationship between the DI and CD could not be achieved. However, invoking prepotent aptitudinal influences from Fappiano’s broodmare sire, Dr. Fager, and from Dr. Fager’s sire, Rough’n Tumble, provided an acceptable solution.

Dr. Fager, b.c., 1964 (Rough’n Tumble-Aspidistra, by Better Self) is arguably one of the greatest runners in Thoroughbred racing history. A winner of eighteen races in twenty-two lifetime starts, Dr. Fager was truly among the most talented and versatile horses to ever set foot on a racetrack. His range of ability is dramatically reflected in his best running times: 1:20.1 at seven furlongs, 1:32.1 at eight furlongs, 1:59.3 at ten furlongs. He is also noted for three of the greatest weight-carrying feats of all time. He accomplished these in his last three starts, all wins. In the first, he carried 134 pounds in the Washington Park Handicap, setting the world record for a mile on dirt, which still stands. Next he toted 134 pounds in the nine-and-a-half furlong United Nations Handicap on the grass, spotting the previous year’s grass champion 16 pounds. Finally, he was burdened with an awesome 139 pounds in the Vosburgh Handicap at seven furlongs on the dirt, shattering the Aqueduct track record by a full second. For his exploits, Dr. Fager was named Horse of the Year, champion handicap horse, champion sprinter, and champion turf horse in the same year, 1968. Although none of Dr. Fager’s male line descendants hold a prominent place among the ranks of top class sires, he remains to this day one of the leading broodmare sires. In terms of percent stakes winners and average earnings, I rank him fifth among all North American broodmare sires through 1997, just behind Nureyev and just ahead of Mr. Prospector. His daughters’ most prominent foals include Fappiano, Quiet American (inbred 3x2 to Dr. Fager), Cure the Blues, Equalize, Sewickly, Coup de Fusil, Shared Interest, Tantalizing, and Leroy S.

Rough’n Tumble, b.c., 1948 (Free For All-Roused, by Bull Dog) was among the half dozen top three-year-old colts of 1951 when he won the Santa Anita Derby. His place in Thoroughbred pedigrees is secure because, in addition to siring Dr. Fager, he also sired the legendary mare My Dear Girl, the dam of the great sire In Reality. He also sired several other useful stallions including Minnesota Mac, Gunflint, and Flag Raiser.

An accommodation was achieved between the Dosage figures of the general population of stakes winners and the sub-population of stakes winners with Fappiano in their pedigree by making the following aptitudinal assignments: Fappiano, Intermediate/Classic; Dr. Fager, Intermediate; Rough’n Tumble, Brilliant/Classic.

Applying these aptitudinal influences, we obtain revised figures for Fappiano’s descendants:

Average DP 11.32-12.46-15.67-1.13-1.14, average DI 3.43, and average CD 0.77.

The numbers are now essentially identical to those predicted on the basis of average winning distance, and suggest an accurate placement of the three sires.

Some have argued that Fappiano in a pedigree represents true classic stamina. This argument is based on his appearance in the pedigree of Derby winners Unbridled, Grindstone, and Real Quiet, and in the pedigree of Belmont Stakes winner Victory Gallop, all in this decade. In fact, the distance capabilities of Unbridled and his son, Grindstone, can easily be explained by the presence of Professional chef-de-race Le Fabuleux as the broodmare sire of Unbridled. Their Dosage figures are already well within the classic range without invoking additional stamina from Fappiano. Similarly, Victory Gallop’s figures are within classic guidelines, mainly through the influence of Classic-Professional chef-de-race Tom Rolfe, sire of Hoist the Flag, he the broodmare sire of Victory Gallop’s sire, Cryptoclearance.

Although Fappiano may, in fact, be transmitting some classic strength, his overall effect (which includes the influences of his close up ancestors) is moderately shifted toward speed. This is reflected in his average winning distance of 7.84 furlongs compared to the data base average of 8.11 furlongs. Also, an examination of all sires in the data base having at least 20 progeny stakes wins shows Fappiano with 60% open stakes winners at a mile or less. The average for all of the sires is 42%. Fappiano’s speed influence is even more apparent as a broodmare sire. Here his daughters have produced 83% open stakes winners at a mile or less.

Inevitably there will be questions about Real Quiet. This year he became just the second Derby winner since 1929 to exceed the historical Derby guideline of DI 4.00. Prior to the Derby, Real Quiet’s Dosage figures were DP 13-2-7-0-0, DI 5.29, and CD 1.27. The additions of Fappiano, Dr. Fager, and Rough’n Tumble change these figures to DP 14-12-12-0-0, DI 5.33, and CD 1.05, which leave Real Quiet’s DI well above the guideline while lowering the CD. How do we rationalize this? Simply by understanding the nature of statistics. The standard deviation of the DI for descendants of Fappiano is 1.08. Statistics tell us that 95% of the data points within a normal distribution will fall within two standard deviations. In other words, 19 of 20 descendants of Fappiano should have a DI that falls between 5.59 (or 3.43 + 2.16) and 1.27 (or 3.43 – 2.16). Fifty percent should fall within one standard deviation, or between DI 4.56 and DI 2.35. In fact, Real Quiet’s DI is between one and two standard deviations of the average and is part of the general distribution. He is not what could be called an outlier. On the other hand, if one accepts his Derby as a legitimate classic performance, we should be prepared to look for other sources of stamina. In that regard, I suggest that Real Quiet’s sire, Quiet American, should be watched closely. Although he’s had just a few crops to race, and a limited number of open stakes winners, his average winning distance is a relatively long 8.41 furlongs. Additionally, just 38% of his progeny open stakes wins are at a mile or less. For a young sire whose early runners are biased toward shorter races, these statistics are indicative of early stamina. Only time can be the judge. Consider also that forecasts based on moving averages over the last 60 years predict that the average DI of Derby winners will reach 4.00 by about the year 2025. Unless we see a reversion to increased stamina in Thoroughbred bloodlines, it is inevitable that more Derby winners will exceed the historical DI guideline between now and then.

For now, we are satisfied that the new assignments are an accurate representation of the prepotent aptitudinal influences derived from Fappiano, Dr. Fager, and Rough'n Tumble.