Hawk at Full Stretch for Derby:
An Epsom Derby 2002 Preview
by Steve Miller

WHILE I fully expect Hawk Wing to establish himself as one of the primary colts of the modern era and possible best son of Woodman (above Hansel, Hector Protector and Timber Country), if his connections are looking for a race in which he could be beaten they could not have come up with one much better than the Epsom Derby.

Already a Group 1 winner at two and moral winner of the first colts’ Classic, Aidan O’Brien is on record at the beginning of this term as saying that he was Ballydoyle’s Triple Crown hope.

His Dosage profile (in the five categories of Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid and Professional) is 9-3-16-2-0 = 30. Eleven speed points are offset by just two stamina points, with a healthy 16-point mid-range Classic concentration. His Dosage index (DI) is 2.00 and his centre of distribution (CD) +0.63. This is all consistent with stamina potential of 8-10 furlongs. While it is just possible that he will get the Derby trip – with none other than Triple Crown winner Nijinsky the sire of his second dam (The Temptress) – in terms of physique he just doesn’t look an Epsom type.

In what might appear to be a so-so year connections will be trusting that his class will see him through, but I am amazed that they would risk him being beaten again, rather than target the top mile and 10-furlong races. If they wanted to prove a point with regard to stamina the Irish Derby seems a much better option than the switchback of Epsom.

The following table looks at some of this year’s possibles in terms of stamina potential. (Bandari is excluded, as his points total of 16 is too low for an accurate reading.)

Put crudely, all of those above Hawk Wing in the table have a better chance of staying 12 furlongs and all those below (i.e. Dubai Destination) have a worse chance of staying. The optimum balance of speed and stamina is represented by a Dosage index of 1.00 and a centre of distribution of zero. Of the above selection, High Chaparral, Fight Your Corner and Moon Ballad are closest to this standard.

Past top performers who conform best to this blueprint for 12 furlongs include last year’s winner Galileo DI 1.11, CD +0.28, dual-Derby winner Montjeu (like Galileo by Sadler’s Wells) DI 0.89, CD +0.08, and Epsom Derby winners Lammtarra (by Nijinsky) DI 1.15, CD +0.30 and Generous (by Caerleon) DI 0.69, CD 0.00.

Horses with a Dosage index of around 2.00 have won the Derby before (e.g. Commander In Chief 1.96 and Dr Devious 2.11), but more appropriate types feature in this year’s renewal. If Hawk Wing wins he will be a true wonder horse, but his reserves of stamina will be tested to the utmost.