Hawk
at Full Stretch for Derby:
An Epsom Derby 2002 Preview
by
Steve Miller
WHILE
I fully expect Hawk Wing to establish himself as one of the primary colts of the
modern era and possible best son of Woodman (above Hansel, Hector
Protector and Timber Country),
if his connections are looking for a race in which he could be beaten they could
not have come up with one much better than the Epsom Derby.
Already
a Group 1 winner at two and moral winner of the first colts’ Classic, Aidan
O’Brien is on record at the beginning of this term as saying that he was
Ballydoyle’s Triple Crown hope.
His Dosage profile (in the five
categories of Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid and Professional) is
9-3-16-2-0 = 30. Eleven speed points are offset by just two stamina points, with
a healthy 16-point mid-range Classic concentration. His Dosage index (DI) is
2.00 and his centre of distribution (CD) +0.63. This is all consistent with
stamina potential of 8-10 furlongs. While it is just possible that he will get
the Derby trip – with none other than Triple Crown winner Nijinsky the
sire of his second dam (The Temptress) – in terms of physique he just
doesn’t look an Epsom type.
In what might appear to be a so-so
year connections will be trusting that his class will see him through, but I am
amazed that they would risk him being beaten again, rather than target the top
mile and 10-furlong races. If they wanted to prove a point with regard to
stamina the Irish Derby seems a much better option than the switchback of Epsom.
The
following table looks at some of this year’s possibles in terms of stamina
potential. (Bandari is excluded, as his points total of 16 is too low for an
accurate reading.)
| CONTENDER |
DP
= Pts
|
DI
|
CD
|
| Tholjanah
(Darshaan) |
3-1-12-6-4 = 26 |
0.63 |
-0.27 |
| High
Chaparral (Sadler’s Wells) |
6-1-22-9-2
= 40 |
0.82 |
0.00 |
| Fight
Your Corner (Muhtarram) |
5-2-8-6-3 = 24 |
0.85 |
0.00 |
| Moon
Ballad (Singspiel) |
5-3-12-5-1
= 26 |
1.17 |
+0.23 |
| Al
Moulatham (Rainbow Quest) |
11-0-13-4-4
= 32 |
1.12 |
+0.31 |
| Naheef
(Marju) |
9-3-13-5-0
= 30 |
1.61 |
+0.53 |
| Coshocton
(Silver Hawk) |
6-6-25-0-1
= 38 |
1.81 |
+0.42 |
| Hawk
Wing (Woodman) |
9-3-16-2-0
= 30 |
2.00 |
+0.63 |
| Dubai
Destination (Kingmambo) |
13-4-18-0-1
= 36 |
2.60 |
+0.78 |
Put
crudely, all of those above Hawk Wing in the table have a better chance of
staying 12 furlongs and all those below (i.e. Dubai Destination) have a worse
chance of staying. The optimum balance of speed and stamina is represented by a
Dosage index of 1.00 and a centre of distribution of zero. Of the above
selection, High Chaparral, Fight Your Corner and Moon Ballad are
closest to this standard.
Past
top performers who conform best to this blueprint for 12 furlongs include last
year’s winner Galileo DI 1.11, CD +0.28, dual-Derby winner Montjeu (like
Galileo by Sadler’s Wells) DI 0.89, CD +0.08, and Epsom Derby winners Lammtarra
(by Nijinsky) DI 1.15, CD +0.30 and Generous (by Caerleon) DI 0.69,
CD 0.00.
Horses
with a Dosage index of around 2.00 have won the Derby before (e.g. Commander In
Chief 1.96 and Dr Devious 2.11), but more appropriate types feature in this
year’s renewal. If Hawk Wing wins he will be a true wonder horse, but his
reserves of stamina will be tested to the utmost.