2002 St. Leger Dosage Preview
by Steve Miller

A review of the Dosage figures reveals that there are very few strong candidates in the staying category for the Classic generation. 

Those of you who have seen the Racing Post Weekender would be advised to ignore Nick Mordin’s findings which are misapplied, present some incorrect figures, and are not even consistent with himself. 

Kazzia (Zinaad) jumps out as the one with required stamina (although I understand she won’t line up) 1-1-8-3-5 = 18 DI = 0.50 CD = -0.56. She is the only one with a negative centre of distribution getting 8 stamina points (5 of them Professional) from both side of her pedigree – from her Mill Reef-Shirley Heights top line and from Nijinsky and Vaguely Noble (both fourth generation dam side). Solid chances on stamina grounds, but I always think fillies are vulnerable in this. 

The others have profiles more in line with the Derby distance. Balakheri, Bollin Eric (somewhat surprisingly due to the speed influences on his dam side) and Mamool come out next best in terms of stamina potential: 

Balakheri (Theatrical) 3-1-21-1-2 = 28, DI = 1.07, CD +0.07

Bollin Eric (Shaamit) 5-2-8-5-2 = 22, DI = 1.00, CD +0.14

Mamool (In The Wings) 7-2-14-5-2 = 30, DI = 1.14, CD +0.23 

Bollin Eric gets his stamina from his Crepello-Busted top line, passed down through Mtoto and Shaamit. While Balakheri has only three Stamina points his central concentration of a massive 21 Classic points will help his case. Nick has incorrect figures for Mamool, who must be on the short list. 

Mordin argues in the Weekender that – “when you eliminate the horses by Sadler’s Wells, who are unlikely to stay the Leger trip, you are left with a shortlist of Ballingarry (who Mordin singles out as the one to take the beating), First Charter, Kazzia and Mamool”. This is an odd thing to say since Ballingarry is by Sadler’s Wells and Mamool by Sadler’s Wells’s son In The Wings. 

While Sadler’s Wells is not an out-and-out staying influence himself (being an influence for middle-distance stamina C/S) he is also capable of throwing up Gold Cup winners, so a St Leger winner is of course possible. However, the likes of Sholokhov and Ballingarry have pedigrees more appropriate to the Derby. 

First Charter’s damsire is Shirley Heights so he could come into it although his sire’s side doesn’t help: 

First Charter (Polish Precedent) 3-6-17-2-4 = 32, DI 1.21, CD +0.06 

Mr Dinos (Desert King) should not be entirely ruled out despite having no stamina points at all, as he has a high number of Classic points (17). Highest (Selkirk) has a similar chance to Mr Dinos – not compelling. 

Bandari (Alhaarth), the probable favourite for Saturday’s race, has too low a points total for his Dosage reading to be accurate. You must rate his chances according to your own view of him. His trainer, Mark Johnston, maintains he is the one to beat. His damsire has an AWD of just 8.9f (but from a small sample) and Hail To Reason 9.9f. For me he is not certain to get the trip although if he does he is probably good enough to win. Nick says that Bandari fails the Dosage test “miserably”, but does not appreciate that he has not got a high enough score for it to be meaningful (if you need an example of this look a Double Trigger’s Dosage before and after the inclusion of Ela-Mana-Mou as an extreme stamina influence). Viceregal is the only ‘off-Dosage’ influence that could help him, but I don’t know enough about that stallion to comment (apparently he has a ‘balanced speed’ influence which roughly conforms to Classic). 

However, as we have seen there are no real out-and-out stayers (with the exception of Kazzia) so Bandari ought to make the frame. 

I would advise the ratings experts to look to the highest rated of Balakheri, Bollin Eric and Mamool and go with that one. Mamool looks a tempting each-way bet at the moment (16/1 is available).