2004 Ascot Gold Cup Preview

The following article by Steve Miller appeared in Raceform Update prior to the running of the 2004 Ascot Gold Cup.  Note that Papineau was the winner at odds of 5-1.

Papineau Possesses Stamina to Scoop Cup

Steve Miller is a thoroughbred owner, analyst and writer on pedigree issues. His specialist subject is dosage theory: in short the assessment of potential stamina in racehorses using four generations of pedigree, and awarding points depending on the 'chefs-de-race' in a horse's family tree.

THERE ARE 17 left in Thursday's Ascot Gold Cup. In crude terms those with the most stamina potential appear at the top of the following table and those with the least at the bottom, ranked by the centre of distribution (CD) measure.

The points totals for Vinnie Roe and Dusky Warbler are too low (at just 10 points and eight points respectively) for an accurate reading and have consequently been excluded from the table (which features the remaining 15). However, we know Vinnie Roe stays, having finished a neck runner-up to Royal Rebel in 2002, while Dusky Warbler finished second in the Doncaster Cup.

Key to dosage points profile: points awarded according to pedigree for the five categories - brilliant, intermediate, classic, solid and professional - which reflect the distance range from extreme speed (brilliant) to extreme stamina (professional). Where the classic points (expressed in the third category of the profile, going left to right) exceed the total number of points in all four other categories combined the term dominant classicity is used. Horses with such a profile can be expected to stay beyond their headline figures. 

The seven at the top of the table (New South Wales, Misternando, Songlark, Ingrandire, Savannah Bay, Alcazar and Papineau) show negative centres of distribution (CD). This marks them out for pronounced stamina aptitude. The next four: Brian Boru, Westerner, Excalibur and Mr Dinos, have slightly positive CDs, but all show dominant classicity. This means they will stay at least as far as their headline numbers suggest. Dominant classicity (DC) is especially significant for 'double zero' horses (those showing no points in the Solid or Professional categories of their stamina profiles). The two examples of DC double zero horses here are Mr Dinos and Highest.

Few horses truly stay two and a half miles, and the pace of the race is more crucial than at lesser distances in determining the outcome. If the pace is a fast one, the horse with the greatest reserves of stamina ought to win, assuming relative ability is broadly similar.

Godolphin has four (Papineau, New South Wales, Songlark and Highest) of the remaining 17, three of which have negative CDs. The In The Wings colt New South Wales appears at the top of the table and shares his damsire Ela-Mana-Mou with Alcazar.

The four-year-old Papineau has taken the eye recently and the son of Singspiel holds strong chances. He is lightly exposed and has won four of his six races. He has improved for stepping up from a mile and a half to two miles (beating Mr Dinos in the process), and the Dosage figures tell us he could easily improve again at this trip.

Songlark has never performed beyond a mile and a half but should benefit for a step up in trip. Highest cannot be completely dismissed, even with a Dosage index (DI) of 2.00. Although sired by Selkirk, he is out of a Silver Hawk mare and, while he has no stamina points as such in his profile, he does possess dominant classicity.

Mr Dinos is the other example of a double zero DC horse, but he appears higher up the table, so has an enhanced chance. He was impressive in winning the 2003 renewal of the contest in a fast time and will again take the beating in a race that suits him so well. However, this year's race could prove even better than last year's.

French challenger Westerner has won over the trip having taken the Prix du Cadran in impressive style, and shares his sire Danehill with the recent Derby winner North Light. Westerner is well placed in the table and also possesses dominant classicity. This also applies to Brian Boru, who would be very interesting if lining up in this. The 2003 St Leger winner thrives in races where stamina is tested off a strong pace. Brian Boru's stablemate Excalibur is the real dark horse. Winning by 15 lengths in a 26-horse field on his only racecourse appearance (over half the distance of this), the son of Danehill, like Westerner (also by Danehill) has plenty of stamina on his dam's side being out of an Alleged mare.

The presence of Ingrandire (who has been supplemented for £20,000) from Japan gives the race a genuine international flavour, and the son of White Muzzle should not fail for stamina, appearing close to the top of the table.

Plenty show good chances of getting the two-and-a-half miles. While the likes of New South Wales, Misternando, Savannah Bay and Alcazar look to be brimming with prepotent stamina, the negative against them is that they may prove short of Group 1 class. It ought to take a notable performance to win this year's renewal.

The relatively unexposed Papineau is taken to see off the strong challenge of Westerner and Mr Dinos. However, Brian Boru would be a threat to all if lining up, and New South Wales will be staying on when many have cried enough.

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr. Steven Roman can be found on www.chef-de-race.com.