Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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The Oaks and Dominant Classicity
by Steve Miller

THE LATE Leon Rasmussen will be known to many of you as one of North America’s foremost bloodstock writers for several decades and former Bloodlines columnist for Daily Racing Form. Rasmussen coined the term dominant classicity to describe a Dosage profile in which the Classic points exceed the total number of points in all of the other categories combined. He observed that those with dominant classicity ought to stay a distance at least as well as their headline figures suggest and that this was especially significant for ‘double zero’ horses (those with no points in either their Solid or Professional stamina categories).

With this in mind I have looked at this year’s Oaks field at Epsom (June 4). The following are a selection of fancied fillies for the Oaks. Four (Punctilious, All Too Beautiful, Baraka and Sundrop) show dominant classicity, three don’t.

The table lists the main Oaks candidates in terms of stamina potential as measured by the centre of distribution (CD) indicator. In crude terms, those with the most stamina potential at the top, those with the least at the bottom.

HORSE (SIRE/DAM'S SIRE)

DP

 DI CD PTS
Hathrah (Linamix/Shernazar) 3-2- 5-8-2  0.60  -0.20 20
Necklace (Darshaan/Barathea) 4-1-13-4-4 0.79 -0.12 26
Punctilious (Danehill/Roberto) 4-6-29-2-1 1.40 0.24 42
All Too Beautiful (Sadler’s Wells/Miswaki)  9-1-22-8-0 1.11 0.28 40
Baraka (Danehill/Troy) 3-8-16-2-1 1.73 0.33 30
Ouija Board (Cape Cross/Welsh Pageant) 5-4- 5-0-2 2.56 0.63 16
Sundrop (Sunday Silence/Night Shift) 7-1-12-0-0 2.33 0.75 20

Ouija Board might be a little stretched to see out 12 furlongs, but all of the others have excellent chances of staying the trip. As we have said the dominant classicity factor ought to prove particularly significant for ‘double zero’ horses, of which Sundrop is an excellent example.

Therefore, while Hathrah and Necklace shouldn’t have a problem with the trip at all, and Sundrop ought to show more aptitude for stamina than her zero stamina points indicate, my two fancies against the field from this would be Punctilious and All Too Beautiful. These are the two who come nearest to the blueprint for the race of a Dosage index (DI) of 1.00 and a Centre of Distribution (CD) of zero and especially so when you factor in that their status as dominant classicity fillies means that they will get at least as far as their headline figures suggest.