2004 Kentucky Derby Preview Last year, at turfpedia.com, we introduced an approach to previewing the Kentucky Derby that emphasized performance factors most likely to reflect a contender's ability to get a mile and a quarter in representative classic style. Since the Derby is usually the first opportunity for a young three-year-old to test a classic distance, it should be obvious that distance is among the most important handicapping factors in the race. The assumption was made at the time that the winner would not benefit from an uncontested easy lead (in the manner of War Emblem, for example) and that the pace would be typical of most prior Derbies. Under those circumstances the race would be less strategic in nature and more intensely contested throughout, allowing freer expression of each horse's genetic potential over the ten furlongs. The analysis then focuses on which contenders are likely to stay and which are not under those conditions. Traditional pedigree interpretation aside, one approach to understanding a contender's distance potential is to have available the average winning distance (AWD) of runners by his sire and out of daughters by his broodmare sire. Accepting that statistics applied to large groups don't always apply to individuals within those groups, they are still a good first-level guide. The following table displays the AWDs in furlongs for the sires and broodmare sires of the 20 Derby entries. We restrict the data to open stakes races because stakes horses are more formful and consistent than lower level horses, making the data more reliable. In cases where the number of examples is small, as with relatively new sires or broodmare sires, the AWD figure is followed by an asterisk and should be considered accordingly.
A different approach to distance potential involves projections of how fast a horse might cover the ten furlongs and how well he might be moving in the latter stages of the race. As an approximation, we have used the method of linear regression to analyze the internal pace characteristics of leading contenders in their Derby prep route races. Linear regression is a technique that generates the best straight line derived from a series of data points. It also affords an equation that we can use to calculate the value anywhere along the line. If our data points are a horse's actual fractional time at four furlongs, six furlongs and at the finish, the equation obtained via linear regression allows us to project a time at any other distance. We have done this for the 2004 Derby entry prep races and from the equations we have identified each horse's best projected last quarter mile time, turn time and final time in a theoretical ten-furlong race. In isolation, these results might have little meaning. However, when measured against the same parameters for previous Derby winners in their preps, we can compare the result to see how well current contenders match up. The next table shows the results for all Derby winners back to 1984 plus those for Spectacular Bid and Triple Crown winners Affirmed, Seattle Slew and Secretariat. The table after that displays the same information for this year's entries plus their best PF in a Derby prep race at a mile or longer on the dirt. In the tables, 10fLQ represents the projected last quarter mile time, 10fTT represents the projected turn time (six to eight furlongs in a ten-furlong race), 10f represents the projected final time and, in the contenders' table, PF represents the Performance Figure. The general guideline for the Derby winner's best prep race PF in recent years has been a figure of -55 or better. It is interesting to note that the averages for the three Triple Crown winners plus Spectacular Bid are superior to those for the rest of the Derby winners in the table. Their average 10fLQ, 10fTT and 10f are 24.1, 24.2 and 1:59.16, respectively. The averages for the remaining Derby winners are 24.5, 24.4 and 2:00.40. There is little doubt that the elite four were the better horses, and it shows up in their prep performances.
For example, every Derby winner has a projected last quarter mile time of 25.3 seconds or less and a projected turn time of 24.9 seconds or less. The significance of these figures is that in their prep races each of the Derby winners, independent of racing style, exhibited a powerful move on the turn as they approached the quarter pole and sustained the move to the finish. Not all entries have demonstrated that ability in any of their preps. In terms of projected final time, the maximum for a Derby winner is the 2:02.34 attained by War Emblem in 2002. Here, too, many entries fall short of the guideline. From this angle, the standouts appear to be (alphabetically) Borrego, Castledale, Master David, Pollard's Vision, Pro Prado, Read the Footnotes, Smarty Jones, St Averil, Tapit, The Cliff's Edge and Wimbledon. Some of these may have issues the handicapper must resolve such as distance limitations suggested directly by pedigree or sire/broodmare sire AWDs. They include Pollard's Vision, Pro Prado and St Averil. Still others may have issues of current class, form, experience or condition. Among these are Castledale (two starts in 2004), Read the Footnotes (7-week layoff), Tapit (two starts in 2004 and only four starts lifetime) and Wimbledon (poor effort in his last Derby prep). Despite these traditional shortcomings, any of them could run back to their best under the right circumstances. The only "pace/performance" standouts coming up to the race without a serious, historical glitch are Borrego, Master David, Smarty Jones and The Cliff's Edge . From this group the outcome easily could be determined by the early pace. As it stands, there is a lot of potential early speed in this year's Derby and the fractions through the first six furlongs are likely to be quite quick, benefiting The Cliff's Edge and Borrego at the expense of Smarty Jones. Having said that, it is the author's opinion that there is no three-year-old any better than Smarty Jones, and even if he loses, we can expect a gallant effort. Master David is a stalker and should be in good position regardless of the early pace. However, his sire's AWD of just 7.09f could be an issue despite a stout bottom side to his pedigree. Just as investment firms are quick to remind us that "prior results do not guarantee future success", so it is with any statistically-based decision making process. Going into the 2003 Derby, how long had it been since a gelding had won...and a New York-bred at that? Before War Emblem raised (or lowered, if you will) the 10f standard to 2:02.34, the slowest projected time for a Derby winner had been 2:01.68. The point is that trends are dynamic and continuously in a state of flux. As the Thoroughbred evolves, classic standards will evolve in tandem. The analysis under discussion is only meant to reveal a series of traits shared by previous Derby winners, but not by all Derby contenders. We'll have to wait until May 1 to see if the trends we are reviewing will continue. One might also want to consider that the field includes five Dual Qualifiers; Action This Day, Birdstone, Lion Heart, Read the Footnotes and The Cliff's Edge. A couple of others seem to possess similar qualities of pedigree and two-year-old form as the Dual Qualifiers but were not within ten pounds of the highweight on the Experimental Free Handicap. Tapit, at 114 pounds, missed the cutoff by just two pounds but has since won a Grade 1, suggesting his juvenile form was underrated. Smarty Jones earned a spectacular BRIS speed rating of 112 as a two-year-old, indicating he was at least as fast as any other colt of his generation. He, too, has sustained his form at three and enters the Derby still undefeated. In the past, horses like Tapit and Smarty Jones have been described as "conceptual" Dual Qualifiers because they meet the Dual Qualifier standard but were not recognized by the Experimental Free Handicap rating system. It may be something to think about in the context of the linear regression methodology outlined here. |