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2005
two Thousand Guineas Preview The following article by Steve Miller has recently been published in RACEFORM UPDATE in the UK. It is presented here with the permission of the author. Unexposed
Giant’s Causeway colt has the right stuff to pull off Classic victory Footsteps
to take up Giant’s cause FOLLOWING my early-season round up of stamina potential for the Classic generation (Raceform Update, 30 May 2005) and Bessie Gregory’s subsequent three-part appraisal of the three-year-old scene, its time to get down to the task of predicting real performance in real races. Where better to start than the 2,000 Guineas? The table looks at a
selection of the three-year-old colts that are still engaged in the spring
classic.
In crude terms those with the most stamina potential appear at the top and those
with the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage index. However,
to find the winner we need to identify which colt has the best blend of speed
and stamina for this particular race. Several
appear to have chances, so we must look to marry stamina suitability with
ability. The Dosage can help us with the first part of this equation, a good eye
with the second. Selection
of 2,000 Guineas candidates
The Jim Bolger-trained Democratic Deficit
has been beaten twice by Oratorio and once by Dubawi last season, but came from
last to first to just take the Craven Stakes on his seasonal reappearance with
Rob Roy, Kandidate and Iceman breathing down his neck. The
Craven is traditionally the trial that gives us the best pointers to the Guineas
itself. But the notion of being able to throw a blanket over the first four home
has rarely, if ever, been more apt than in this year’s renewal. This suggests
that the race was either particularly strong or that they all conform to the
average, with nothing exceptional among them. The first suggestion looks
overstated but the latter unfair. The
second and fourth, separated by fractions – Rob Roy and Iceman – could both
be considered to have been unfortunate in running. This applies particularly to
Iceman, who after squeezing through the smallest of gaps was in front a stride
or two past the line and was trapped on the rail at a crucial stage when he
needed to make his move. Iceman
and Rob Roy are the two to take from the race (the third Kandidate is reportedly
aimed at the Dante Stakes). Both should be capable of giving the short-priced
favourite Dubawi a run for his money on Saturday. The
Sir Michael Stoute-trained Rob Roy won a competitive Newmarket maiden at
7 furlongs last term and looks likely to be at his best at around a mile this
season. He has wintered well and the Craven will have put the Lear Fan colt in
good shape to progress into one of the season’s success stories from the ranks
of the classic generation. John
Gosden’s Polar Falcon colt Iceman was caught by Etlaala (in receipt of
5lb) in the Group 2 Champagne Strakes at Doncaster last season, but he was able
to comfortably turn the tables on that opponent when they subsequently met off
level weights in the Dewhurst and the Craven. The colt put
up some solid looking performances last term before being put in his place by
Shamardal and Oratorio when fourth in the Dewhurst. He will prove effective at
distances of around a mile or more this season. Richard
Hannon still has Forward Move (and Solent) engaged in the Guineas
but he was found wanting after making the running in the Craven. However, the Dr
Fong colt has already won at a mile at Newmarket in his maiden last season and
may well want further, and to be ridden differently, to be seen at his best. The
Andrew Balding-trained Diktatorial has won at Group 3 level at seven
furlongs at Newmarket last season and with Damister as his dam sire looks sure
to get the Guineas mile. He has reportedly delighted his connections in a recent
racecourse gallop at Newbury and makes his reappearance in the big one. Mick
Channon’s best two-year-old last term was Henrik (now with Godolphin), but the
West Ilsley yard still looks like being represented with Capable
Guest. The Cape Cross colt is exposed, winning only a maiden in eight starts
last term and losing by a short head in the Listed Easter Stakes at Kempton this
season to the equally exposed Rebel Rebel, who could represent Neville
Callaghan despite subsequently being beaten into fourth in the Feilden Stakes.
With just ten points in Capable Guest’s profile the Dosage is of no real help (about
twice as many points is considered a rule of thumb for a reliable reading).
The
form looks short of what is required in this. Oratorio’s
form
Ballydoyle’s
Oratorio on the other hand represents particularly solid form at the
highest level winning four of his seven starts at two and finishing runner up to
the filly Damson at the Curragh and Shamardal in the Dewhurst at Newmarket.
Oratorio is by Danehill out of a Vaguely Noble mare. Danehill
is showing much more stamina for certain of his progeny than his own distance
capabilities on the racecourse would suggest – at least when put to the right
mare – as shown by the likes of last year’s Derby winner North Light and
Ascot Gold Cup runner-up Westerner. Although
Danehill is not a chef-de-race (chief of breed) the stamina that Oratorio
derives from his dam sire Vaguely Noble – a split Classic/Professional
chef-de-race – taken with Danehill’s possible emerging aptitude for
intermediate stamina, marks him out for middle distances. The fact that he also
shows dominant classicity (which basically means he will stay at least as far as
his headline numbers suggest) sets the seal on middle-distance stamina aptitude.
He nevertheless also has good speed influences. The
Peter Chapple-Hyam trained Montgomery’s Arch has close form behind
Oratorio in two Group 1 races – the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at
Longchamp and the Dewhurst – finishing a couple of lengths down on Oratorio in
the French race, but getting to within a neck of him at Newmarket.
Montgomery’s Arch has a good Dosage profile for the Guineas, although we
cannot derive too much confidence from his showing in the Craven. Rebuttal,
by Mr Greeley, put up a decent performance behind Ad Valorem in the Middle Park.
He looks like making his mark as a sprinter, but it is possible he’ll get a
mile as a three-year-old horse. His trainer, Brian Meehan, is adamant that he
will and adds he acts on all types of ground. Footstepsinthesand
by Giant’s Causeway is unbeaten in two starts and could be anything. His dam
sire is Rainbow Quest and the colt looks set to star at 8-10 furlongs at three. Of O’Brien’s many entries the only other one still engaged at the time of writing is Cougar Cat. The Storm Cat colt finished four lengths behind Blue Dakota in the Norfolk Stakes at 5 furlongs before splitting Oratorio and Indesatchel in the Anglesey Stakes at the Curragh. Cougar Cat heads for Longchamp for the Group 3 Prix de Fontainebleau (Sunday 24 April) and the Guineas may follow too soon for him to take part. Godolphin’s
chances Sheikh
Mohammed’s pride and joy Dubawi will no doubt get the Rowley Mile well.
His dam, Zomaradah (by Deploy), won the Italian Oaks and three Group/Grade 2
races at 10 furlongs and is herself a daughter of a half-sister to Derby winner
High-Rise. Dubawi’s Dosage reading suggests a best distance of around 10
furlongs and he may be one of those who, like his sire Dubai Millennium, prove
at his best at a mile-and-a-quarter. He has a big chance in the Guineas if the
decision not to aim Shamardal (who is now a possible for the Irish
Guineas according to Godolphin) at this race can be taken at face value. Dubawi even has a Guineas understudy by Dubai
Millennium in the shape of Belenus who won his only race last season at 7
furlongs. He is out of the Barathea mare Ajhiba, a half-sister
to top class performers Second Empire, Hemingway and Balestrini (all by the
Ela-Mana-Mou mare Welsh Love). Belenus will have no problem seeing out the trip
but looks to be there for insurance if anything goes wrong with Dubawi before
the big day. All things being equal Belenus looks to be heading for the French
Guineas where he should not be ignored. Sweet spot The
average Dosage index (DI) for the past ten Guineas winners is 1.4, but those
slightly above this up to around DI 2.0 seem the ideal type for the race. Of the
last ten winners these include: Haafhd (2.33),
Rock Of Gibraltar (2.16), King’s Best (2.06), Island Sands (1.57) and King Of
Kings (1.78). Of those lying in the sweet spot this year, Democratic Deficit (1.40),
Diktatorial (1.40), Footstepsinthesand (1.77), Rob Roy (1.80) and Montgomery’s Arch (2.05) look best placed. Montgomery’s Arch blew up
in the Craven but is talented. Nevertheless it is hard to see him turning around
the form sufficiently to figure here. Higher up the table we find Oratorio (DI
1.24) who is likely to prove best at further than a mile but nevertheless looks
to have a good mix of speed and stamina required for this race with an excellent
concentration of 24 points in his mid Classic category. Dubawi (1.20) ought to prove good enough to make the frame, particularly so if
the bullish reports from Godolphin are to be believed. If not, Shamardal
supporters, especially those with an interest in his sire’s (Giant’s
Causeway) stud value, are likely to view the race as a missed opportunity. Giant’s Causeway vs. Dubai Millennium? If
you’ll forgive the pun, the race could be orchestrated for Oratorio, at
the chief expense of Dubawi, Iceman (DI 1.32), Rob Roy and Diktatorial.
The fly in the ointment is his unexposed stablemate Footstepsinthesand,
who looks well positioned in the table as a Guineas candidate. We
don’t have much to go on with regard to form but, with Shamardal out of the
picture, it would be ironic if it were still to come down to a Giant’s
Causeway/Dubai Millennium head-to-head with Footstepsinthesand vs. Dubawi/Belenus. In
short the O’Brien pair are taken to upset the likely favourite Dubawi. They
both hold legitimate chances. My head tells me Oratorio, the Dosage tells
me Footstepsinthesand. Footnote:
Note that US champion Chief’s Crown
has become the 205th chef-de-race
(announced on the Bloodstock page of the Racing Post, 13 April 2005). Dr.
Steven Roman and I have placed him as a split Intermediate/Solid and this needs
to be factored into pedigrees for the purpose of Dosage analysis. The
write up can be found on www.chef-de-race.com |