|
2005
St. Leger Preview The following article by Steve Miller has recently been published in RACEFORM UPDATE in the UK. It is presented here with the permission of the author. Scorpion
satisfies credentials for St Leger, but Darshaan holds the key to beating him
Accentuate
the negative – Hard Top has right attributes to take sting out of Scorpion THE
SONGWRITING partnership of Johnny Mercer/Harold Arlen once told us to
“accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative,” but while the general
application of this may be considered excellent advice, when it comes searching
for a winner in the world’s oldest classic (or in other stamina tests such as
the Ascot Gold Cup) using the Dosage system, we need to adopt just the opposite
tactics. A
negative centre of distribution (CD) marks out a racehorse for pronounced
stamina capabilities. Assuming a staying race, such as the Ladbrokes St Leger,
is run at genuine pace and assuming broadly similar ability, a negative CD gives
a horse a decisive advantage. The trouble is that relatively few horses have
negative CDs and those that do are often ‘slowboats’, but when you spot a
good one that does it pays to take note. The
average Dosage index for the past eleven winners of the St Leger is 1.17, with
the ‘right types’ for the race having a DI of about 1.00 or less (the lower
the DI the more stamina aptitude). Of the past eleven winners the overwhelming
majority satisfy this requirement – they comprise: Brian Boru (1.05), Bollin
Eric (1.00), Milan (0.77), Millenary (1.33), Mutafaweq (1.07), Nedawi (1.40),
Silver Patriarch (1.00), Classic Cliché (0.83) and Moonax (0.73). Of these the
system identifies Milan, Classic Cliché and Moonax as the three with the most
stamina aptitude (with DIs of below 1.00). On top of the DI requirement Milan
and Moonax also had negative CDs of -0.05 and -0.04 respectively with Classic
Cliché on exactly zero. These are just the types we should be identifying for
the race. Rule
Of Law defied this last year with a DI of 2.11 and a CD of +0.71, but typically
the winner will have a DI of around 1.00, or less, and a CD that is close to
zero, erring to the negative, in years in which there are such examples (e.g.
Milan and Moonax). Kerrin
McEvoy must take the credit for last year’s victory, judging the pace of the
race impeccably and wringing the last drop of stamina from his mount. The placed
horses – Quiff and Tycoon (the pair identified in this column as best suited
to the race) – were both better equipped to see out the trip but needed a more
searching pace to show their advantage. The
seven left in at the five-day stage (plus Shalapour) appear in the table ranked
in order of CD. Those with the most stamina potential appear at the top and
those with the least at the bottom. Those above Scorpion in the table have as
good, or better, chances of outstaying him. 2005 St. Leger
Lack
of pace was blamed for Scorpion’s dismal performance behind Shamardal in the
French Derby, where he finished sixteenth of 17, but he bounced back to be
beaten just half a length by Hurricane Run in the Irish Derby before going on to
score in his first Group race in decisive fashion in the Grand Prix de Paris –
now run at a mile-and-a-half – accounting for Desideratum by a comfortable
looking two-and-a-half lengths. The
Montjeu colt was unraced at two and satisfies the typical Dosage profile of past
winners with a DI of 1.00 and a CD of +0.19 (although closer to zero, or
negative, would be preferable). If anything, his sire Montjeu (who is not a chef-de-race)
will add rather than detract to his headline stamina figures. Consequently many
will not wish to look past the long term St. Leger favourite. Milan
won this before going on to finish fifth in the Arc and connections could be
planning the same route for Scorpion. In
contrast, his stablemate Indigo Cat – by Storm Cat out of a Kingmambo mare –
who was also entered for this, has no stamina points in his profile, with a DI
of 3.44 and a CD of +0.90. He would have appeared at the foot of the table and
looked the wrong type to take part here. John
Dunlop still has Kong
and Tawqeet in the race despite deciding not to run Unfurled, with his other
entry Munsef sustaining injury when winning the King George V Handicap. The
Clive Brittain-trained Hattan lost his way after finishing sixth in the Derby
having previously beaten Almighty in the Chester Vase at the beginning of May,
but the Halling colt appears to have returned to form against older horses
recently when finishing runner-up to Eccentric in the Group 3 Winter Hill Stakes
at Windsor over 10 furlongs. His only win in seven races has come at 12
furlongs, the first of his three attempts at the distance. He appears to hold
similar chances to those that finished down the field with him in the Derby (The
Geezer and Kong), but on the balance of form it would be a little disappointing
if any of these were good enough to win this. Darshaan
holds the aces
All
is not lost, however, the two Darshaan colts, Shalapour (who now looks set for
the Irish St. Leger a week later than Doncaster) and Hard Top, head the table
and represent the type we are looking for – both with negative CDs. Darshaan
himself is not a chef-de-race (chief of breed), but Darshaan’s sire
Shirley Heights (Classic/Professional split) and his sire Mill Reef
(Classic/Solid split) are, both passing down prepotent stamina aptitude. The
Sir Michael Stoute-trained Hard Top had the measure of The Geezer and Avalon in
the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes at York, with Kong and the Mark Johnston pair
Brahminy Kite and Melrose Avenue behind. Hard Top previously won his maiden by
five lengths at Lingfield this season following up on an eye-catching run behind
Proclamation at two. He will relish the step up to the Leger trip, whereas a
mile-and-a-half is probably as far as The Geezer will want to go. With Mick
Kinane sidelined through injury Ryan Moore, who partnered Hard Top at Lingfield,
takes the ride. Scorpion’s
stablemate Avalon looks to be the other one, with Hard Top, to take from the
race. A comfortable winner of his only other start, a maiden at the Curragh, he
could still be anything and looks like making up into a very useful
four-year-old. The
other Darshaan colt, the John Oxx-trained Shalapour, whose dam sire is Kahyasi,
was thrown in at the deep end in the Irish Derby – after winning twice outside
stakes company at 10 and 12 furlongs. He ran a fine race to finish third behind
Hurricane Run and Scorpion and completed another excellent trial for the St
Leger in finishing runner-up to the filly Chelsea Rose in the Listed Ballyroan
Stakes at Leopardstown – both winner and runner-up accounting for the veteran
distance specialist Vinnie Roe. Oxx has reportedly decided that Shalapour will
bypass the St Leger at Doncaster and take part in the Irish equivalent a week
later. Wherever Shalapour runs at this sort of distance he has a compelling
chance. John
Gosden’s filly Playful Act has also been scratched from the race after
disappointing in the Yorkshire Oaks.
With John Oxx’s exciting filly Behkiyra also not taking part the 2005 renewal
of the St Leger will be left to the colts. Top
to draw Scorpion’s sting
While Scorpion has the look of a good thing, and is identified by the Dosage system as consistent with past winners of this, if we can find something to beat him it is likely to be the Darshaan colt. So
by deciding to ‘accentuate the negative’, in the absence of Shalapour (who
must be backed for the Irish equivalent), I have come down on the side of Hard
Top to repel Scorpion. O’Brien’s other one, the unexposed
Avalon, could still be anything and could mount a serious challenge of his
own for the race. 1)
Hard Top 2) Scorpion 3) Avalon |