Gypsy King fits Derby blueprint, while Shamardal is a natural for the Guineas
by Steve Miller

A version of the following article by Steve Miller has recently been published in RACEFORM UPDATE in the UK.  It is presented here with the permission of the author.

Round up of stamina potential for the Classic generation

With the Flat season under way and Newmarket’s Craven meeting looming it tends to pay dividends to preview the Classic crop with particular regard to stamina potential at about this time. This should give us an edge in what is traditionally a time of confusion and mixed messages from connections – unsure about the ability and aptitude of their horses – in anticipating where individuals are likely to be pointed later in the season.

I remember, with some amusement, at being taken to task by one ‘expert’, who shall remain nameless, in the pages of Pacemaker that I didn’t know what I was talking about in declaring the filly Petrushka to be marked out for middle distance stamina, when it was obvious that she was a sprinter – following her win in the Nell Gwyn – especially as her dam had only been able to win at 5 furlongs. Three Group 1 wins later that same season two at 12 furlongs and one at 10 and I guess the penny had dropped. I guess, as it went eerily quiet from that same quarter. The point of this illustration being that the Dosage helped us to look past received wisdom to the essential distance aptitude of the filly.

The table looks at a selection of three-year-olds. In crude terms those with the most stamina potential appear at the top and those with the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage index. 

Selection of Three-Year-Old colts and fillies

The fillies

The surprising thing about the David Wachman-trained Damson is that she has only been campaigned at 5 and 6 furlongs to date, when her Dosage shows she is crying out for distances greater than a mile rather than short of it. She ought to excel, more than we have seen so far, when put to distances.

Another who will not fail for want of stamina is the Sir Mark Prescott-trained Darshaan filly Intrigued. She is certainly one you would want to be aiming at the Oaks rather than the Guineas. Her conqueror in the Prix Marcel Boussac, the deeply impressive Divine Proportions, is one that must be aimed at either the French or English 1,000 Guineas before thinking about trying her at further, however.

Titian Time, trained by John Gosden, finished runner-up in the Boussac and she could also do well in the Guineas but may prove best at a little further than a mile, while Gosden’s Sadler’s Wells filly Playful Act had a tremendous two-year-old season, having a couple of attempts at Newmarket to win her maiden at 7 furlongs before Group 2 and Group 1 success at Ascot and Doncaster at a mile. While she could do well in the Guineas, middle distances should be where her real aptitude lies.

Aidan O’Brien’s Listed winner Kitty O’Shea is a full sister to St Leger winner Brian Boru and is another likely to be seen at best advantage with a test of stamina.

Godolphin’s Queen Of Poland was put firmly in her place in the Boussac, but could nevertheless develop into a decent filly this season at around a mile or more. 

The Colts

With regard to the colts, Mick Channon’s best two-year-old Henrik by Primo Dominie out of a Polish Patriot mare ran with credit last year finishing runner-up to Dubawi in the Group 3 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket and third behind Motivator in the Racing Post Trophy. With just 10 points in his profile the Dosage reading cannot be considered reliable about twice as many points is considered a rule of thumb for a reliable reading. No stamina points are evident in his pedigree, however, and he is unlikely to be aimed at middle distance targets.

The Michael Bell-trained Montjeu colt Motivator won both his starts, at Newmarket and Doncaster in the Racing Post Trophy, last term and this clearly talented colt should prove effective at a mile and above this season.

The Sir Michael Stoute-trained Rob Roy is the winner of a competitive Newmarket maiden at 7 furlongs and looks likely to be at his best at around a mile this season.

O’Brien team

As usual, Aidan O’Brien has a formidable looking equine team to draw from. Gypsy King, comfortable winner of an 18-runner maiden at Leopardstown on his only start at two has a near-blueprint Dosage profile for the Derby, with a centre of distribution of zero often described as the ‘ideal’ balance of speed and stamina for this race and a Dosage index of close to 1.00. The colt, by Sadler’s Wells out of the Darshaan mare Love For Ever – a dual winner in France – overcame a poor start at Leopardstown due to an absence of starting stalls to win on an easy surface. If he is to emulate previous O’Brien-trained Derby winners Galileo 2001 and High Chaparral 2002 he is likely to be required to handle better going. He looks made for distances around 12 furlongs, however. He was earmarked at the time of his maiden victory as a possible for the Racing Post Trophy, Which was contested in the end by Albert Hall, and is held in high regard at home.

Ballydoyle’s Oratorio won four of his seven starts at two and finished runner up to the filly Damson at the Curragh and Shamardal in the Dewhurst at Newmarket. Oratorio is by Danehill out of a Vaguely Noble mare. Danehill is showing much more stamina for his progeny than his own distance capabilities on the racecourse, as shown by the likes of last year’s Derby winner North Light and Ascot Gold Cup runner-up Westerner. Although Danehill is not a chef-de-race yet, the stamina that Oratorio derives from his dam sire Vaguely Noble, a split Classic/Professional chef-de-race, taken with Danehill’s emerging aptitude for intermediate stamina, marks him out for middle distances. The fact that he also shows dominant classicity which basically means he will stay at least as far as his headline numbers suggest sets the seal on middle distance stamina aptitude. 

Albert Hall, another by Danehill out of the Roberto mare Al Theraab winner at a mile at three from a good US turf family, won the Group 2 Beresford Stakes at the Curragh before finishing runner-up to Motivator in the Racing Post Trophy on his final seasonal appearance. His Dosage reading suggests middle distances could play to his strengths.

The unbeaten Danzig colt Ad Valorem ended his two-year-old campaign with a workmanlike victory in the Middle Park Stakes from Rebuttal and Iceman. The colt’s pedigree is packed with a concentration of speed and classic influences and is likely to prove best at distances up to a mile.

Yet another from Ballydoyle, Grand Central, by Sadler’s Wells out of Coronation Stakes winner Rebecca Sharp by Machiavellian, won his maiden in good style at Leopardstown at the end of October. Due to where he is stabled he is prominent in the 2,000 Guineas market and could prove an interesting proposition. He will get the mile well and may be seen at his best at a little further.

Footstepsinthesand by Giant’s Causeway is a winner of both his starts and could be anything. His dam sire is Rainbow Quest and the colt looks set to star at 8-10 furlongs at three.

John Gosden’s Polar Falcon colt Iceman put up some solid looking performances last term before being put in his place in the Dewhurst and should prove effective at distances of around a mile or more.

Which brings us to the brilliant Dewhurst winner Shamardal, subsequently unplaced on dirt in the UAE Derby. The colt shares his sire with Footstepsinthesand, but has a less stout dam sire in Machiavellian and is consequently likely to have less stamina potential. The colt has, however, shown the most natural aptitude for the 2,000 Guineas that you could wish for. 

Godolphin choice

Shamardal has in fact been my idea of the Guineas winner since before he ran in the Veuve Clicquot Vintage Stakes at Goodwood at the end of July 2004 an unusually early time to have such a positive idea about the following season’s Guineas winner.

In any other ownership than that of Sheikh Mohammed the colt would be nailed on to take part in the Guineas.

The Sheikh of course has made no secret of the fact that Dubawi is his flagship horse being a son of the ill-fated Dubai Millennium and he would rather win the English spring classic with anything by Dubai Millennium than he would with a son of Coolmore’s rising superstar Giant’s Causeway. Sheikh Mohammed managed to buy back nearly all of the 52 Dubai Millennium foals and is surely desperate for at least one of these to win an English Classic.

I am dreading the prospect of Shamardal being effectively sidelined by being asked to run against his natural aptitude in the American triple crown series.

No amount of will power on behalf of an owner can ensure success. That is left to the ability and aptitude of the horse in question and while Dubawi will no doubt get the Newmarket mile well he will certainly be better suited to the Derby than Shamardal. Dubawi’s dam won the Italian Oaks and three Group/Grade 2 races at 10 furlongs and is herself a daughter of a half-sister to Derby winner High-Rise.