It is often said,
“pace makes the race”. We
are all familiar with the phrase, but I dare say few of us have a firm
grasp on what it means in a practical sense.
The folks at Trackmaster define pace as the tempo or rhythm of a
race, which is as good a definition as any.
They further suggest, “pace
is important primarily as it effects the overall energy pattern of a
race horse”. Accepting
that description creates opportunities for measurement and
quantification. In other
words, if a horse’s energy pattern, perhaps better described as its
energy distribution throughout the course of a race, is critical to the
race’s outcome, then measuring that energy distribution could provide
significant insight into the details of the horse’s performance.
Once we understand the subtleties of how a horse typically or
better yet, most efficiently, distributes its energy in a race we can
hopefully apply our understanding to the demands of another race.
This is an approach we have used for several years to assess the
potential of Kentucky Derby contenders.
By analyzing the pace characteristics of the Derby starters in
their prep races, we can compare the results to those found for previous
Derby winners in their prep races.
Some will fit the successful historical patterns while others
won’t.
Our methodology is multifaceted.
First, we use linear regression (involving fractional times and
lengths behind) to generate the slope and intercept of the best straight
line that models the individual performance.
Slope is
a measure of fatigue. The higher the slope, the longer the time
required to negotiate an additional distance. Slopes will
generally fall between 0.9 (slow early-fast late) and 1.2 (fast
early-slow late). Intercept is a measure of early speed and is inversely related to the
slope. In this case, the lower the intercept, the greater the
relative early speed. Intercepts
also will usually fall between 0.9 (fast early) and 1.2 (slow early).
Correlation Coefficient is
a measure of how efficiently a horse's speed is expressed throughout the
whole race. Perfect efficiency is equal to a Correlation Coefficient
of
1.00000. Any value below 1.00000 represents less than ideal
efficiency, although it is almost always greater than 0.99900. The
very best horses continually display Correlation Coefficients above
0.99990 while lower quality horses may not display Correlation
Coefficients that high. We can subsequently use the slope and the
intercept for a race to calculate a predicted time at any distance.
These times include a projected ten-furlong time (10f), a
projected turn time in a ten-furlong race (10fTT, the time to negotiate
the distance between the six furlong and eight furlong markers) and a
projected last quarter-mile time in a ten-furlong race (10fLQ).
Next,
we calculate Sartin Methodology-based Brohamer pace numbers
("Modern Pace Handicapping", by Tom Brohamer, William Morrow
and Company, Inc,. New York, 1991) for the same races.
Evaluating only route races these are limited to a 3Fr (Final Fraction) number which is the
speed in feet-per-second from the six furlong call to the finish and a
%E (Percent Early) number which is a relative measure of energy used
through the six-furlong call. Speed types display %E figures
significantly higher than off-the-pace types, although the absolute
numbers are greatly affected by the distance of a race.
We emphasize 3Fr and %E from among the various available Brohamer
figures because these are directly related to a horse’s ability to
conserve energy and to finish its races with something left in reserve.
The
other Brohamer figures include EP
(Early
Pace), the velocity in feet-per-second to the six-furlong call; SP
(Sustained Pace), the average of Early Pace and the Final
Fraction, thus relating a horse's speed to the six-furlong call and his
ability to finish; AP
(Average Pace), the average of EP and SP; 1Fr
(First Fraction) and 2Fr (Second Fraction), the average
velocities in feet-per-second between each of the first two calls (start
to four furlongs and four furlongs to six furlongs); and TE
(Total Energy), the sum of EP and 3Fr (the total available
energy based on current conditions of distance, surface and track as
well as inherent ability).
Finally,
we use Performance Figures,
based on the same linear regression technology described earlier, as a
measure of the absolute quality of the races being analyzed.
The
relevant figures for this year’s leading Derby contenders are here.
For
reference, guideline numbers (all times are in seconds; e.g., 122.34=
2:02.34) for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Spectacular Bid and
Triple Crown winners Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed are:
The following table represents one way, but certainly
not the only way, of using pace parameters and Performance Figures as a
guide to Kentucky Derby performance. For each year since 1998, the starters are rank ordered according to
the five pace-related parameters derived from Derby prep races at a mile or
more on dirt. They are 1) the fastest 10f; 2) the fastest 10f LQ 3) the fastest 10f TT; 4) the fastest 3Fr;
and 5) the lowest %E. Starters
with the top five values in each category pass the initial screen.
In the second screen, only those passing the first screen and which have
achieved a PF of -55 or better in a graded Derby route prep race are considered
for the win. To test the usefulness of this analysis, all qualifiers are bet across
the board and in exacta combinations. The results are displayed on
the right. Since 1998, this methodology has identified all seven
winners as well as four exactas and two trifectas. The results
demonstrate that horses with exceptional performance in a Derby prep
race at less than ten furlongs and which have also shown the ability to
finish their races with very good energy are most likely to win.
There is nothing mysterious about the outcome. However, it is also
true that many legitimate contenders have often been overlooked by
emphasizing factors that seem not to be as important.