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2006
two Thousand Guineas Preview The following article by Steve Miller has recently been published in RACEFORM UPDATE in the UK. It is presented here with the permission of the author. George Washington has the blend of speed and stamina to take the Guineas in style, but Amadeus Wolf looks best placed to take advantage of any flaws Washington
to keep Wolf from the door for Ballydoyle THE
GREATEST spring classic, Newmarket’s 2,000 Guineas, has always held a special
place for me. The mix of anticipation and excitement I feel about this race is
like no other, akin to how young children look forward to Christmas, in
expectation and wonderment. I know that when I no longer feel the tingle in the
bones around this time of year I’ll be ready to batten down the shutters and
call it a day. That it’s not quite the same for any other race in the calendar
must be to do with the fact that while brimming with promise the contenders are
usually as yet unproven as racehorses. They tantalize us, precisely balanced
between being literally anything – a potential Champion The Wonder Horse
– and the all too likely alternative of being just another also-ran, with all
hopes and expectations measured and dashed against the reality of that
unrelenting straight Rowley Mile. Some that go into the dip seem to never come
out again, while the very few define themselves as special by stamping their
class over those left stumbling around like newborn giraffes in their wake. I count myself fortunate to have witnessed some of the great performances from the likes of Nijinsky and Brigadier Gerard when in my teens, through El Gran Senor, Dancing Brave and Nashwan in the Eighties, to Zafonic and King’s Best in recent years. I’ve grimaced at the injustice of the mighty Hawk Wing somehow contriving to get beat despite such awe inspiring raw ability and wept at the waste of not building Shamardal’s season around this race of races. Analysing
the race before hand is part of the thrill. What the form won’t tell us we
again look to the Dosage system to fill. Last year the system (as predicted in
this column) told us that Footstepsinthesand and Oratorio had a distinct
advantage over the red-hot favourite Dubawi and were tipped to both finish in
front of that one. Footstepsinthesand duly returned the 13/2 winner and Oratorio
also got the better of Dubawi (who finished fifth despite going off as the 11/8
favourite). The previous year the system also told us that Haafhd was best
placed to beat the unsuitable 15/8 favourite One Cool Cat. To
find this year’s winner we again need to identify which colt has the best
blend of speed and stamina for this particular race. (We look at those bracketed
in the ‘sweet spot’ for the race at the end of this article.) We must again
look to marry stamina suitability with class. The
table looks at a selection of the three-year-old colts that at the time of
writing are still engaged in the race.
In crude terms those with the most stamina potential appear at the top and those
with the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage index (DI). Selection
of 2,000 Guineas candidates
Barry
Hills Barry
Hills would appear to have an embarrassment of riches going into the Guineas
with impressive wins from Killybegs in the Craven and Red Clubs in the Greenham
and an unlucky looking runner up in the Feilden in Olympian
Odyssey.
Red
Clubs
saw out a splendid campaign last season – winner of three of his nine races
and place twice behind Amadeus Wolf and once behind George Washington, finishing
off his season in the Dewhurst where he was fourth to Sir Percy. Contrary to
speculation the mile should present no problem to him and the form has a very
solid look to it, if short of spectacular. Red
Clubs stablemate Killybegs, a dual winner at two with two subsequent
placed efforts, returned to winning ways in the Craven. The Orpen colt ran out a
convincing winner at Newmarket putting distance between him and the runner up in
the closing stages. On the face of it he features too low in the table to have
the stamina for the Guineas, but his dam sire is Belmez who, although not a chef-de-race,
could be the source of sufficient staying power for Killybegs to have some
chance. The colt is also entered for the French 2,000 Guineas. Olympian
Odyssey looked unlucky to be
denied by a short head by Mark Johnston’s typically tough performer Atlantic
Waves in the Listed Feilden Stakes at Newmarket’s Craven meeting, when
desperate to get past a wall of horses, and is another potent force for Barry
Hills. The colt gets further than a mile already and Jamie Spencer is reportedly
linked with the colt for the big day. Olympian Odyssey’s owner Bill Gredley is
keen to go for the Guineas, although Barry Hills would prefer the Dante. I
have the feeling that of the three Hills is sweet on Red Clubs for this and has
him in the condition to run the race of his life. Amadeus
Wolf,
trained by Kevin Ryan, rounded off a top class two-year-old campaign when
gaining revenge for his defeat by Red Clubs (in the Coventry Stakes) turning the
tables on that rival in the Group 2 Gimcrack at York and the Group 1 Shadwell
Stud Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket. He has good chances of getting the Guineas
trip, the key to his chance lying in his dam side exposure to the Shirley
Heights-Darshaan line through Mark Of Esteem, but like his July Cup-winning
sire, Mozart, if not quite making a mile his best trip, looks set to star at
distances up to a mile. Asset
ran out a winner this term of the Listed Easter Stakes over a mile at Kempton
for Richard Hannon. Both Asset’s sire (Marju) and dam sire (Arazi) have AWDs
of 9 furlongs plus. At two the colt won a novice stakes race at Yarmouth and
finished placed behind Opera Cape in the Solario Stakes at Sandown despite not
appreciating the easy going. Asset should prove best at a mile or slightly
further on fast ground. He is excluded for the table as his point’s total of
12 is too low for an accurate reading. Jim
Bolger’s Heliostatic finished a neck runner-up to the Mick Channon-trained
Yasoodd in his trial at Leopardstown this season. Heliostatic looks to be
screaming out for further than this appearing at the head of our table, the only
one of our selection (other than the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Final Verse)
with a Dosage index of less than 1.00 and a negative centre of distribution
(CD), indicating his best trip will be at distance. Misu Bond won the European Free Handicap and won two races last term for his trainer Bryan Smart including the Listed Two-Year-Old Trophy at Redcar. On the same Newmarket card Jeremy Noseda won both divisions of the Wood Ditton for unraced three-year-olds with his colts Secret World and Petrovich. It is, however, Araafa who represents the yard here. Speed
vs. stamina I
REMEMBER hearing at about this time in 1986 that Khalid Abdulla’s Lyphard colt
Dancing Brave had “too much speed” for the Guineas and that he wouldn’t
get the Derby trip “in a horse box”, as if the possession of speed somehow
also excluded the possibility of stamina. We know now how much that advice was
worth listening to. It seems we are now hearing similar things about the
Ballydoyle inmate George
Washington. While it is
undeniable that the colt has plenty of speed, and his trainer has stated that
he’ll believe he gets a mile when he sees it, we can afford to take this
apparent warning with a large pinch of salt. As an example of a thoroughbred
with ‘dominant classicity’ the Dosage is clear that he’ll have no problem
seeing out eight furlongs this season with a good concentration of points (19)
in the mid Classic category of his profile. A
brilliant winner of the Phoenix Stakes, he subsequently won his National Stakes
follow up pleasingly enough. The colt is a half-brother to Grandera and his dam,
Bordighera,
was a 13-furlong winner at three in France. With just one Professional point in
the stamina wing of the colt’s profile he will not have limitless stamina,
however. His
sire Danehill (who is not a chef-de-race) has an average winning distance
(AWD) for his progeny of 9 furlongs. But the stallion throws up both speedier
types and those with much more stamina (including Derby and Ascot Gold Cup
winners), suggesting that his stamina influence is not prepotent but more
a consequence of which mare he is matched to. As George Washington’s dam sire
Alysheba has an AWD of 11 furlongs we should not be unduly worried about his
ability to see out this trip. Alysheba’s sire Alydar is a mid category Classic
chef-de-race while Danehill’s sire Danzig is a split
Intermediate/Classic influence. The
speed he has already shown suggests he could be a colt of rare ability. Against
this he tends to exhibit what O’Brien refers to as “arrogance” in the way
he conducts himself. He nevertheless looks to be a credible Guineas favourite if
his trainer can channel the brilliance he showed us in the Phoenix. Horatio
Nelson
(also by Danehill) was four pounds below his stablemate George Washington in the
juvenile World Rankings. His dam sire is Sadler’s Wells and his dam was the
winner of the Oaks and Irish 1,000 Guineas and is half-sister to several
winners, including Generous. He appears above George Washington in the Dosage
table with four additional stamina points and while he should be effective at a
mile has greater potential for middle distances than his stablemate. Sir
Percy doesn’t make a habit
of winning by much of a margin, but he does keep winning – most recently with
two short head defeats of Horatio Nelson and Cool Creek in Group 1 and Group 2
contests. The unbeaten Dewhurst winner is hailed by Marcus Tregoning as the best
two-year old he has trained. Tregoning views him as a middle-distance colt for
this season, while others think that his attributes are for speed. Tregoning’s
view is supported by the fact that Sir Percy’s dam was a high-class performer
over 11 furlongs while his dam sire Blakeney has an AWD of 12.1 furlongs for his
progeny. His Dosage points total of just 10 is insufficient for a reliable
reading and he is consequently excluded from the table. However, he does have
four stamina points, which suggests that his trainer may not be barking up the
wrong tree. Godolphin The
Barathea colt Opera Cape, trained last season by Sylvester Kirk, was
reportedly rated by that trainer as a “proper Guineas contender” before
joining Godolphin’s ranks. The colt finished last season as runner-up to
Horatio Nelson in the Grand Criterium and again one place behind that rival when
third to Sir Percy in the Dewhurst. Prior to that he had run out a convincing
winner of a Group 3 at Sandown. He looks to prefer some cut in the ground and
should be effective at distances of a mile or more this season. Sweet
spot The
average Dosage index (DI) for the past ten Guineas winners is 1.54, but those
slightly above this up to around DI 2.00 seem the ideal type for the race. Of
the last ten winners those that fall into this bracket are: Footstepsinthesand
(1.77), Haafhd (2.33), Rock Of
Gibraltar (2.16), King’s Best (2.06), Island Sands (1.57) and King Of Kings
(1.78). Those
lying in this range (just above 1.50 to just above 2.00) this year include: Red
Clubs (1.67), George Washington (1.67), Opera Cape (also 1.67), Amadeus Wolf
(1.77) and Misu Bond (2.08). Horatio Nelson and Sir Percy will have their
supporters, but both look set to star at distances in excess of this. Of
those bracketed in the sweet spot, George Washington, Opera Cape and Amadeus
Wolf boast the strongest level of form. Dancing Brave picked them up and
carried them in this and the colt we saw in the Phoenix has the potential to do
the same, on a stage he is surely destined to shine if he can curb his
playacting. Amadeus Wolf, running off an identical DI to last year’s
winner of 1.77 looks best placed to take advantage of any flaw in the likely
favourite’s performance. So a win bet on George Washington and a place bet on
Amadeus Wolf should prove fruitful. At the time of writing, Opera Cape looks a
big price and those that are interested in him should not be put off. I also get
the feeling that Red Clubs is in good heart and will not be far away. The
presence of the front two in the Dewhurst (should Horatio Nelson line up) should
provide evidence enough that the winner is at least very decent and just
possibly the next wonder horse… one thing you can count on, I’ll again be
there to find out. How
they can finish: 1)
GEORGE WASHINGTON 2)
Amadeus Wolf 3)
Horatio Nelson 4)
Red Clubs 5)
Sir Percy 6)
Opera Cape |