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The
following article by Steve Miller has recently been published in RACEFORM UPDATE
in the UK. It is presented here with the permission of the author. Andre
Fabre’s five-year-old has the class and stamina to take the Ascot Gold Cup Dive
in with Reefscape THE
ASCOT Gold Cup presents us with the opportunity to take up a tried and trusted
method of identifying long-odds winners of the race, namely the Dosage system.
While few thoroughbreds truly stay 20 furlongs – and the pace of the race is
more crucial than at lesser distances in determining the outcome – if the pace
is a fast one the horse with the greatest reserves of stamina ought to win,
assuming that horse is not run off its legs in the early stages and that
relative ability and general fitness are otherwise broadly similar. The
problem with the Ascot Gold Cup is that a horse with the right sort of profile
for such extreme distance that is also good enough to win at Group 1 level is
pretty rare, which is why those with seemingly unsuitable profiles are also able
to win the race against ‘slowboats’. However, when a horse does have the
right profile and is legitimate Group class and has hit form at the right time,
it pays to follow them in this. Those with
either, or both, a Dosage index (DI) of less than 1.00 and a zero or negative
centre of distribution (CD), to have won the Gold Cup in the past decade or so
are: Papineau (SP 5/1), Kayf Tara (twice, 11/1 and 11/8), Enzeli (20/1), Celeric
(11/2), Classic Cliché (3/1), Double Trigger (9/4) and Arcadian Heights (20/1).
Both Enzeli (DI 0.54, CD -0.45) and Arcadian Heights (DI 0.90, CD -0.05)
returned at odds of 20/1. Any student of Dosage would have been on (as I was),
as they stuck out like sore thumbs. A couple of 20/1 winners and an 11/1 winner
(in Kayf Tara) comfortably pay for many years of losing bets. Likewise, Double
Trigger (DI 0.21, CD -1.40) was screaming out to be backed for this, as was
Celeric (DI 0.00, CD -1.44), whose entire points total of 18 appeared in the
stamina wing of his profile (which is extremely rare). Moreover,
those that have such profiles seem to run well in this race habitually in spite
of what they achieve elsewhere and regardless of odds, being placed both prior
to and subsequent to winning. Against
this it should also be noted that the likes of Westerner and Mr Dinos were able
to win with DIs of slightly more than 1.50 and Royal Rebel won with a DI of more
than 2.00. However, whenever we have an in form candidate with a distance
reading, it pays to side with that one. The
accompanying table shows the 13 left in the race at the five-day confirmation stage and as usual is arranged with
those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom,
ranked in order of the Dosage index (DI). 2006
Ascot Gold Cup – Five-day confirmation stage
Sir Michael Stoute
Distinction
heads
the current betting market for the race as a winner of the
Group 2 Goodwood Cup at 2 miles and runner-up to Westerner (at York) in last
year’s Gold Cup. He showed he was in good heart by taking the Listed Paddy
Power/Aston Park Stakes at Newbury last month by a head from subsequent Goodwood
winner Balkan Knight (in receipt of 9lbs). The 7-y-o son of Danehill has won six
times between 10 and 16 furlongs and was runner-up to Westerner (also by
Danehill) last year at 20 furlongs. He has performed with distinction at middle
distances and, if anything, has improved for stepping up in trip. He has a
single prepotent stamina point (derived from Ribot in his fourth generation) in
the Professional (extreme stamina) category of his profile, but also a high
concentration of points (28) in his mid Classic category. This means he is an
example of a horse showing ‘dominant classicity’, which basically means he
will stay at least as far as his headline numbers suggest he will. On form you
would expect him to start favourite for this year’s renewal in the absence of
Papineau and Westerner.
Sir Michael Stoute also stables Cover Up, who had beaten Tungsten Strike in the Group 3 Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket last October and the Sagaro Stakes at Lingfield this term. However, he was never going when 11/4 favourite and last of seven to Tungsten Strike in his most recent appearance in the Henry II Stakes. Connections blamed the soft going that day and he could well prove a different prospect on faster ground if joining his stablemate here. He has won the Ascot Stakes at 20 furlongs and the Queen Alexandra Stakes twice at 22 furlongs and this trip holds no fears for him. Distance and going will suit, but at nine age is against him. Although appearing at the bottom of our table Cover Up’s dam sire Rainbow Quest (who is not a chef-de-race) is the likely source of his stamina attributes. At the time of writing, the stable is reticent as to whether he will appear here or go for a third Queen Alexandra. Akarem
has
hit form at the right time with an impressive win at Listed level at Ascot at
the end of last month. Trained by Karl Burke, connections have paid £18,000 to
supplement him for the race. Akarem has not won at beyond a mile-and-a-half on
the Flat, but he was placed in the Group 3 Curragh Cup and has subsequently had
a spell of hurdling. The six stamina points in his profile suggest he could run
well enough in this to recoup his fee. While Akarem has been supplemented Godolphin has withdrawn The Geezer and Cherry Mix, who have appeared shadows of their former selves this season. However, Godolphin has kept the mare Guadalajara in the race. She won four times last year at 11 and 12 furlongs, in France, in handicaps and at Listed level. The mare was stepped up in class at the end of last season and good enough to be placed in both of her Group 2 races at 13 furlongs, behind Diamond Tango at Deauville and Oiseau Rare at Longchamp. With just 12 points in her profile the Acatenango mare’s Dosage reading may not prove reliable. However, two of those points are in the stamina wing of her profile giving her a better than forlorn hope.
Mark Johnston
Mark
Johnston, who has a tremendous record at the Royal meeting, has reported that
his team is also not firing on all cylinders and that the pool of horses he has
to choose from to launch his assault on the Royal meeting is much smaller this
season than in a typical year. Golden Quest, who ran second to Distinction in
last season’s Goodwood Cup, and Darasim who last won for Johnston in the 2004
Goodwood Cup, have both been withdrawn. However, Johnston also stables Winged
D’Argent who has just the sort of Dosage profile you would want to see for
this race, with 15 stamina points and a negative CD. He
narrowly failed to snatch runner-up spot to Westerner from Allez Olive by a
diminishing short head at just shy of two miles in the Group 2 Prix Vicomtesse
Vigier and finished fifth at York in the Gold Cup last year. He has finished
down the field in his first three appearances this season before taking
runner-up spot to Tungsten Strike in the Group 2 Henry II Stakes at Sandown,
albeit five lengths adrift. His stamina is not in question, but the 5-y-o will
need to find another half a stone on his best form (of about 114) to have more
than place chances here. Fast going would also be against him. However, his odds
should be big enough to back for a generous place return. The
Amanda Perrett-trained Tungsten Strike is the winner of five races –
three at 14 furlongs and two at 16 furlongs. His latest triumph came at the
expense of Winged D’Argent in the Henry II Stakes on soft going at Sandown
where he ran out a ready winner. The
Dermot Weld-trained winner of the 2002 Melbourne Cup Media
Puzzle
returned to winning ways in a Listed race over 14 furlongs at Leopardstown this
season. The nine-year-old
missed all of last season and finished down the field in the 2004 Melbourne Cup
but has been lightly raced since winning at Flemington and has appeared twice
this term. He stayed on under pressure in his latest start to beat Jim
Bolger’s Good Surprise a length. A bit to find with the principals though and
at his age that is unlikely. Andre Fabre
Reefscape
won
the Group 3 Prix Gladiateur at two miles and the Group 1 Prix du Cadran at this
trip for Andre Fabre before failing by a neck to overhaul Alcazar in the Prix
Royal Oak, all at Longchamp in September and October of last year. However, the
5-y-o has failed to score this term (under his Group 1 penalty) after three
attempts at two miles at Listed, Group 3 and Group 2 level. Returning to Group 1
level, especially at this trip, where he will not have to concede weight, should
actually give him an edge, however. He seems to perform on fast and soft going.
Christophe Soumillon takes the ride. Reefscape has been prepared with this race
in mind, in following the route of last year’s winner, and if running up to
his best form of around 120 he is capable of taking this off the favourite. Yeats
has won four of his eight races and had Reefscape 5½ lengths behind him in the
Coronation Cup last year. He has failed to score since then, but finished a
close up fourth in the Irish St Leger. The 5-y-o has yet to race beyond 14
furlongs. However, a DI of less than 1 indicates he has chances of staying
further. He is much less exposed than the typical Gold Cup contender and it
would not be a major surprise if he were to run a very big race. Sergeant
Cecil
won the Totesport Cesarewitch last season off top weight completing a unique
treble of big handicaps following victories following the Northumberland Plate
and Ebor. He finished three lengths down to Percussionist in the Group 2
Yorkshire Cup this season. On his best form he has chances in this, but the
seven-year old would probably need to find a few pounds improvement to win. The
Walter Swinburn-trained Barolo has won a Listed race at Leopardstown from
Two Miles West and got the better of Grampian and Fight Your Corner at the end
of 2004 in a conditions event at Salisbury. He finished tenth in last season’s
Gold Cup, having never been able to get into contention, a distance clear of the
remaining seven. He finished third to Tungsten Strike in the Henry II Stakes,
getting tired on his reappearance after looking some sort of threat to the
winner. High
Action
has won eight races at eight to 19 furlongs, including a valuable two-mile
handicap at Lingfield last season giving 5lb to Golden Quest. The soft going was
against him when fifth of six in the Listed Paddy Power/Aston Park Stakes last
month, but the six-year-old looks short of class for this even on his best form
and with ideal going in his favour. Motafarred
has won once at Galway at 12 furlongs when trained by Dermot Weld. He finished
thirteenth of 15 in a York handicap last month and the gelding looks well out of
his depth here. Negative centre of
distribution
If a Dosage index of 1.00 and a centre of
distribution of zero is the blueprint for a Derby contender, for a potential
Ascot Gold Cup winner we are ideally looking for a negative CD and a DI of less
than 1. Recent winners of the race conforming to this are: Papineau (CD -0.04,
DI 0.88), Enzeli (-0.45, 0.54), Celeric (-1.44, 0.00), Double Trigger (-1.40,
0.21) and Arcadian Heights (-0.05, 0.90) – while both dual winner Kayf Tara
(+0.08, 0.90) and Classic Cliché (0.00, 0.84) qualify in terms of DI and are
very close to qualifying in respect of the CD. This
is all the more striking when we consider that negative CD horses are far less
common than those with positive CDs, which explains why horses are able to win
the race in years when there is no particularly good example of this type of
horse. Winged
D’Argent
(CD
-0.38, DI 0.45), Reefscape
(-0.08,
0.68) and Yeats
(+0.08,
0.89) are the best Dosage matches this year and appear at 1, 2 and 3 in our
table. Summary Distinction
(who has
won on good to firm) looks
the obvious choice –
he has the class to win and is proven at the trip.
Sergeant
Cecil
is a game type but looks like he has a little to find, and Tungsten Strike
has hit form, although even at nine Cover Up seems to have the measure of
that one on faster going. But
looking past the obvious, Reefscape,
Yeats
and Winged D’Argent have the best stamina profiles for this. The Dosage analysis points to Prix du Cadran-winner Reefscape or Winged D’Argent (who won’t be suited by fast going). If there is an Enzeli or an Arcadian Heights in this year’s race it is Winged D’Argent. It’s unlikely that there should be more than a couple of 20/1 winners in a Group 1 race in any given decade or so though, so a win bet on Reefscape and a place bet on Winged D’Argent is advised as a strategy for those looking beyond the favourite.
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