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2006
Epsom Derby Preview The
following article by Steve Miller has recently been published in RACEFORM UPDATE
in the UK. It is presented here with the permission of the author. Those Who Have Not Already Grabbed Ante-Post Prices
About The Classy Looking Visindar Should Now Look Elsewhere For Value – To
Those More Likely To Last The Trip Stamina
doubts make Visindar worth opposing in Epsom test
THE DOSAGE system has been of immense help to
me over the years, enabling me to see past what initial reaction and received
opinion try to tell me is the case. My
initial reaction to Visindar’s effortless victory in the Prix du Champ de Mars
at Longchamp in April was to snatch a piece of the 7/1 that was immediately on
offer (those who had backed him prior to the race did rather better). He
subsequently won the Group 2 Prix
Greffulhe, over 10 furlongs, impressively and has been
backed down to a very short-priced Derby favourite. On quieter reflection, turning to the Dosage
system, I am persuaded that at his current market odds he is worth opposing. I
suspect Visindar’s best distance may turn out to be something short of a
mile-and-a-half. While his sire had no problem with the trip his dam side is
primarily made up of sharper influences. The
accompanying table shows a selection of 17 of the 22 colts colts left in the
race at the five-day confirmation stage
and as usual is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the
top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage index (DI). 2006 Derby - Selection of five-day acceptors
Hawk
Wing stretched I
was a huge fan of Hawk Wing (DI 2.00, CD +0.63) after seeing him move
effortlessly through the gears in the National Stakes in Ireland as a
two-year-old and while I considered him a certainty for Guineas I was equally
sure, as I wrote at the time, that he shouldn’t go near Epsom for the Derby. High
Chaparral had the perfect
profile to beat him in that. As it was Hawk Wing ran a heroic race filling the
runner-up spot despite running on empty in the final two furlongs. It was pure
class that got him home behind his stablemate, who had a blueprint profile for
the race (DI 0.82, CD 0.00). The record books show that the horse with the ideal
profile for the Derby won and that the colt with real brilliance, that the
Dosage told us would always be stretched in the race, didn’t. While
I do not doubt Visindar’s (DI 2.53, CD +0.77) ability, I have reservations
(like Hawk Wing before him) about his chances of getting the trip. While the
comparison seems fair, Visindar is of course a different animal to Hawk Wing.
Visindar chances of lasting home largely hinge on any prepotent influence to be
derived from his sire Sinndar. If the influence of Sinndar does turn out to be
prepotent for stamina (which it may) he has a chance of getting it. If Sinndar
fails him for stamina then he won’t last home, as the dam side offers nothing
of help in this particular. Given
what we have seen, those that are on Visindar at fancy ante-post prices will
consider themselves to be a strong position to protect their downside on the
race. But those who haven’t backed him yet are probably best advised to leave
him alone. The choice is then limited to leaving the race alone altogether (a
prospect surely much too horrible to contemplate) or looking for bigger price
value from those that are more certain to see out the trip. There
are several candidates who seem sure to get the trip. The question is are they
also good enough? We will try to identify the best of the bunch. The Sir Michael Stoute-trained Montjeu colt Papal Bull has been re-entered for the race at a cost to connections of £75,000. He made steady progress last term to win his maiden at his third attempt. He improved again when winning a class 3 handicap at Newmarket off joint top weight followed by the Group 3 Chester Vase, beating the Geoff Wragg-trained Sadler’s Wells colt Dragon Dancer in good style. Both Papal Bull and Dragon Dancer look sure to get the mile-and-a-half at Epsom. Dragon Dancer particularly will have no fears of the trip, but looks vulnerable to those who are able to quicken up.
O’Brien
team Dylan
Thomas and Mountain ran
out first and second in the Group 2 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown for
Aidan O’Brien’s Ballydoyle yard and are strong alternatives for owning
connections. Mountain will certainly get the trip (appearing at the head of our
table, one of only two in the race with a negative centre of distribution –
extreme stamina potential) and Dylan Thomas has chances of getting it. Perhaps
the most plausible chance of all from Ballydoyle, as highlighted in this column
at the beginning of the season, may come in the shape of the Sadler’s Wells
colts Septimus (who shares the same sire and dam sire as the Stoute-trained
Greek Well). With a Dosage index (DI) of 0.96 and a centre of distribution (CD)
of +0.14 he conforms to a virtual ideal for the 12 furlongs of Epsom. He is a
powerful galloper whose physique may not be ideally suited to Epsom’s
contours, but if the race turns into a test, which it invariably does, he should
be in the thick of it. There is the strong suggestion he will be even better on
better going. I couldn’t resist a small interest in him at 25/1 with Coral at
the beginning of the season. Horatio Nelson could still play a major part in this. Despite disappointing in the Guineas, his future has always looked like being over middle distances and his trainer did warn before the Guineas that the colt was not nearly as far forward as George Washington. Altius makes up the O’Brien team of five. The
Michael Jarvis-trained Halling colt Hala Bek beat Dragon Dancer well in
his Newbury maiden. He is a half-brother
to High Pitched and Imperial Stride, both high-class 12 furlong-winners. His
sire Halling has an average winning distance (AWD) for his progeny of 10.4
furlongs, while his dam sire Sadler’s Wells has an AWD of 11.3 furlongs. He
has a good Dosage reading for the Derby. Unfortunately he scoped badly before
the Dante, for which he was ante-post favourite, and was withdrawn from that. An
interrupted preparation so close to the Derby does not augur well. Otherwise he
seems ideally placed with a fine chance. Art Deco and Ivy Creek pulled well
clear of their field in the Group 3 Dee Stakes at Chester. The Peintre Celebre
colt Art Deco got first run on Geoff Wragg’s charge that day and there may not
be much between the pair in terms of ability although the winner might be
expected to see out 12 furlongs the better. Art Deco’s trainer Charles
Egerton has left him in the Derby, but he is more likely to run in Sunday’s
Prix du Jockey Club. Sir
Percy
ran a fine Derby ‘trial’ in the 2000 Guineas, as did Barry Hills’s Olympian
Odyssey. Marcus Tregoning has always viewed Sir Percy as a middle-distance
colt for this season. His view is supported by the fact that Sir Percy’s dam
was a high-class performer over 11 furlongs while his dam sire Blakeney has an
AWD of 12.1 furlongs for his progeny. His Dosage points total of just 10 is
insufficient for a reliable reading and he is consequently excluded from the
table. However, he does have four stamina points, which suggests that his
trainer may not be barking up the wrong tree. He finished jarred up in the
Guineas and is another whose preparation for this has been held up at a crucial
stage. However, his trainer again seems full of hope following recent work and
he merits serious consideration here. Jeremy Noseda’s Sixties Icon is a
maiden winner at Windsor this term. On the face of it he looks out of his depth,
but his Dosage reading is close to ideal for the Derby and there are some decent
colts in the yard that this one has presumably outshone to figure in this. Mick
Channon appears delighted with his facile Predominate Stakes winner Championship
Point. The Lomitas colt won a maiden and a Listed race last term before
going down by a head to Linda’s Lad at Deauville giving away 5lb on ground he
hated. He has the perfect Dosage reading for the Derby and must be respected. Sienna
Storm
finished four lengths behind Championship Point at Goodwood. The son of Peintre
Celebre won a maiden last term and finished last of three in a Conditions event
at Epsom at the end of April. It is difficult to make out a case for him being
prominent in this. Andre Fabre intends to be double-handed for
the race with Linda’s Lad joining Visindar in a cross-Channel assault
on Epsom. Linda’s Lad got up by a head to beat Mick Channon’s Hazeymm in the
Lingfield Derby Trial. The performance was probably better than the bare form
suggests and stamina problems shouldn’t be an issue. He is a colt with
definite chances in this. Frankie Dettori is set to take the ride after
Godolphin stated it would not be represented in the race. Dettori had been due
to partner Winged Cupid, but after woefully disappointing performances from the
likes of Opera Cape, who finished last in the 2,000 Guineas and Palace Episode,
who all but tailed off in the Dante, Godolphin has had to face up to the reality
that its horses are in no condition to do themselves justice. Visindar is, at the time of writing, the big-race favourite and despite doubts over the trip his Derby and Arc-winning sire Sinndar had no problem with it. Mick Channon’s Youmzain (also by Sinndar) appears higher up the table due to a stouter dam side. Sinndar is not (yet) a chef-de-race, but if he were Visindar would also be sure to appear higher up the table. The Aga Khan’s colt oozes class and his owner knows what it takes to win the race having won it with Shergar, Shahrastani, Kahyasi and Sinndar. It pains me to oppose him, but oppose him I must. Speed/stamina
balance The optimum blend of speed and stamina for the Derby is often said to be expressed as a Dosage index (DI) of 1.00 and a centre of distribution (CD) of zero. The
average DI for the past ten renewals is 1.41, but those slightly below this
figure down to around 1.00 (or less) appear best suited to the stamina
requirements of the race. Benny The Dip is the only horse with a DI of above 2
to have won the Derby in the past decade, while the winners who match our
requirement over same period are: Motivator (1.43), Kris Kin (1.34), High
Chaparral (0.82), Galileo (1.11), High-Rise (0.82), Shaamit (0.80) and Lammtarra
(1.15). Those
who best fit our criteria this year are: Atlantic Waves (0.85, 0.00),
Papal Bull (0.91, +0.09), Hala Bek (0.92, +0.17), Septimus
(0.96, +0.14),
Championship Point (1.00, 0.00), Sixties Icon (1.00, +0.23),
Youmzain (1.09, +0.25), Olympian
Odyssey (1.11, +0.29), Horatio Nelson (1.21, +0.19), Best Alibi (1.22, +0.40),
Linda’s Lad (1.24, +0.26) and Art
Deco (1.43, +0.43). All
things being equal ability wise the horse that conforms best to our blueprint
should win. While Visindar (2.53, +0.77) appears to be the best horse, only one
colt has bucked the trend of a DI greater than 2 in the past 10 years (and many
consider the short-head runner-up in 1997, Silver Patriarch (1.00, +0.03),
who gained compensation in the St Leger, to have been desperately unlucky). Of
the colts clustered around the ‘sweet spot’ in terms of stamina
aptitude for this race Atlantic Waves, Papal Bull, Hala Bek, Septimus,
Championship Point, Olympian Odyssey, Linda’s Lad and Horatio Nelson look like
being the group to take on the favourite with. Of these Papal Bull, Septimus, Championship Point and Linda’s Lad are the ones to have hit form, while Horatio Nelson could be a real danger if progressing from his first run this season in the Guineas, as so many of O’Brien’s horse have. I’ll have to reluctantly pass over Hala Bek due to his interrupted preparation and can’t see Linda’s Lad or Championship Point being quite good enough. So I expect the winner to come from Septimus, Horatio Nelson and Papal Bull. When push comes to shove I’ll take Septimus and Papal Bull for the 1-2 to shut out the French raider. The Dosage tells us they are made of the right stuff.
Selections: 1)
Septimus 2)
Papal Bull 3)
Visindar |