2006 St. Leger Preview
 by Steve Miller

The following article by Steve Miller has recently been published in RACEFORM UPDATE in the UK.  It is presented here with the permission of the author.

Victory in the season’s final Classic is ensured for a Northern Dancer-line individual – Sixties Icon can prove best of those still set to take their chance, following defections from Papal Bull, Septimus, Youmzain, etc...

Northern Dancer has stranglehold on the Leger

THE 2006 RENEWAL of the Ladbrokes St Leger (run this year at York) is now certain to be a family dominated affair with all of those that could still take part by a Northern Dancer-line stallion. Three of those that at the time of writing could still take part are by Sadler’s Wells (by Northern Dancer) with another seven by one or other of Sadler’s Wells sons Galileo and Montjeu. Two others are by Northern Dancer-line stallions (Desert Prince and Lomitas). This being the case, many of those taking part have very similar looking Dosage profiles. So application of the system looks like giving us less of an edge in this year’s renewal than it has in the past.

Winning criteria
The average Dosage index (DI) for the past twelve winners of the St Leger is 1.16, with the ‘right types’ for the race having a DI of about 1.00 or less (the lower the DI the more stamina aptitude). Of the past twelve winners the overwhelming majority satisfy this requirement – they comprise: Scorpion (DI 1.00), Brian Boru (1.05), Bollin Eric (1.00), Milan (0.77), Millenary (1.33), Mutafaweq (1.07), Nedawi (1.40), Silver Patriarch (1.00), Classic Cliché (0.83) and Moonax (0.73). Of these the system identifies Milan, Classic Cliché and Moonax as the three with the most stamina aptitude (with DIs below 1.00). On top of the DI requirement Milan and Moonax also had negative centres of distribution (CD) of -0.05 and -0.04 respectively with Classic Cliché on exactly zero. Although Rule Of Law defied this in 2004 with a DI of 2.11 and a CD of +0.71, the winner will typically have a DI of around 1.00, or less, and a CD that is close to zero, erring to the negative, in years in which there are such examples (e.g. Milan and Moonax).

The accompanying table shows those who could still take part at the time of writing, arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage index. All of them, with the possible exception of Red Rocks, look to have stamina enough for this on a Dosage analysis.

2006 St Leger (at York) – At five-day confirmation stage

The Mark Johnston-trained Linas Selection will miss the race due to a setback. This is doubly unfortunate for his luckless owner Renata Jacobs who’s other chance Soapy Danger suffered a fractured pastern when fifth of 10 to Youmzain in the Great Voltigeur.

Favourite
The Jeremy Noseda-trained Sixties Icon, current strong favourite for the final classic, won a maiden at Windsor at the beginning of May and has subsequently been placed behind Papal Bull and Red Rocks at Ascot in the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes, after finishing seventh to Sir Percy in the Derby. The Galileo colt has since got back in front in pleasing style under a confident ride from Frankie Dettori (who is set to keep the ride) at Goodwood, where he put Jadalee and Linas Selection in their respective places. Although the colt hasn’t competed beyond 12 furlongs he looks the type to have stamina enough for this, with six points in the stamina wing of his profile.

Mick Channon’s Youmzain followed up victory at Newmarket by taking the Great Voltigeur at York, getting the better of Red Rocks. Unfortunately Youmzain has been ruled out of the race by his owner Jaber Abdullah on doubts over the Sinndar colt’s suitability for the St Leger trip. He has a Dosage profile fully consistent with that of past winners of the race, but is now set to take part in the Prix Niel at Longchamp the following day.

Red Rocks has done little wrong, finishing out of the frame only once in his eight-race career. After winning a maiden at Windsor on his reappearance he made short work of Degas Art in Listed company at Newmarket a month later. He has finished runner-up at Group 2 and Group 1 level to Papal Bull, Rail Link and Youmzain at Ascot, Longchamp and York respectively. The Galileo colt has a big chance if he gets the trip, but the Dosage system gives him the least chance of lasting home of the Galileo colts still in the race, being out of a Machiavellian mare. Against that, with the possible exception of Sixties Icon, he also looks the most talented of the Galileo colts in this. The Champion Stakes at Newmarket is an alternative for him.

Optimum trip
Although the Marcus Tregoning colt Jadalee looks held by two or three of these he has been successful against older horses recently in the Listed March Stakes run over 14 furlongs at Goodwood. The Desert Prince colt appears close to the top of our table and St Leger looks like being his optimum trip. On stamina grounds he looks to have plausible place chances.

The Sir Michael Stoute-trained Ask did well to give Trick Or Treat 10lb and fail to beat that one by a short head in the Melrose Stakes. However, Stoute so often the bridesmaid but never the bride in this – having trained the St Leger runner-up five times – looks like missing out again now that Papal Bull, the disappointing beaten favourite of the Great Voltigeur, is out of the picture.

Most stamina
The two Ballydoyle representatives with the most stamina potential are Mountain (by Montjeu), who heads our table, and Puerto Rico by Sadler’s Wells. Mountain has only won a maiden, at Navan last season, although he finished runner-up to his stablemate Dylan Thomas (Youmzain a further short-head away in third) in the Group 2 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown. He has subsequently been highly tried finishing eighth in the Derby and sixth in the Irish equivalent, he also finished (along with stablemate Puerto Rico) at the back end of the field in the Grand Prix de Paris on his latest start.

Puerto Rico has subsequently finished third to Youmzain in the Great Voltigeur. Yet while neither Mountain nor Puerto Rico should have any fears of the trip and are tried and tested at Group level there is no hard evidence in the formbook that either of them are good enough for this. Nevertheless, Puerto Rico did finish ahead of The Last Drop, Fire And Rain and Championship Point in his latest start.

Least exposed
Another Ballydoyle inmate Tusculum improved for stepping up to 14 furlongs in the recent Listed Ballycullen Stakes at the Curragh, going away from the five-year-old runner-up Good Surprise. This was only the Sadler’s Wells colt’s second outing of the season and fourth in all, having won a maiden at Navan over a mile last term. Stamina will not be an issue in this and he could represent Ballydoyle’s best chance in the absence of Septimus. Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner Trempolino is his dam sire.

Fire And Rain is the least exposed of the Ballydoyle prospects. He beat Mashaahed and Red Rocks in his only appearance at two and finished sixth to Youmzain in the Great Voltigeur on his only other start this term.

Only filly
The only filly left in is the William Haggas-trained Mont Etoile. The Montjeu filly won her maiden at Yarmouth and improved for stepping up to a mile-and-a-half when runner-up in the Cheshire Oaks before taking the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Ascot from Scottish Stage. She failed to confirm form with Scottish Stage in her latest outing in the Irish Oaks, finishing fourth to Alexandrova (Scottish Stage second), some five lengths adrift of the winner and a length behind the runner-up. Very useful albeit unspectacular form – her stamina profile gives her chances, but she is likely to give best to at least one or two of the colts.

Galient, yet another by Galileo (out of a Warning mare), won a Newmarket maiden and a class 3 handicap event at Chester earlier this season before finishing runner-up to Mark Johnston’s Soapy Danger in the Queen’s Vase (with Ermine Sea, who will also not now run in this, a further half a length away in third). The Michael Jarvis-trained colt will have no fears of the trip, but has subsequently finished last of five in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes against older horses.

John Gosden’s charge Ermine Sea (by Rainbow Quest), was the one free of Northern Dancer influence, but is another who will not now take part.

Summary
Northern Dancer (primarily through Sadler’s Wells) has a complete stranglehold on this year’s race with it merely a question of which one of his line will sire the winner. Yet given the patchiness of much of this form, and with so many of these appearing to be much of a muchness, even judged on their best efforts, it is difficult to be confident about which one of Northern Dancer’s descendants will get the job done. Red Rocks is one that has been a model of consistency but typically finds one too good and there is a suspicion that with a DI of above 1.5 he will struggle to get the trip. Youmzain has hit form at the right time, winning his latest two starts. He has a turn of foot and will stay further than his headline figures suggest, which are already sufficient, but he now goes to the Prix Niel instead.

This in effect leaves the market leader, Sixties Icon. Sixties Icon has respectable form behind Papal Bull at Ascot and did well at Goodwood in putting Jadalee, Linas Selection and Savannah in their places. He also fits the profile of past winners of this with six stamina points.

I wanted to side with Youmzain to beat Sixties Icon as this pair appear to be a little classier than the rest and are in line with the Dosage requirements set by previous winners. With Youmzain out of it Sixties Icon looks like holding sway, but also looks skinny value. Red Rocks will fail only through lack of sufficient stamina (which may well prove to be the case), while Jadalee’s superior stamina may earn him a place, if he is allowed to take his chance. If there is a surprise the least exposed are best placed to spring it, in the shape of Tusculum or Fire And Rain.

VERDICT
        1)       Sixties Icon
        2)       Tusculum
        3)       Jadalee
        4)       Red Rocks