Preview of the 2006 UK Flat Season

Round-up of Stamina Potential for the Classic Generation
by Steve Miller

First published in Raceform Update

WHEN setting off on the endless succession of cattle drives that was the Fifties/Sixties television western Rawhide, trail boss Gil Favor, ramrod Rowdy Yates and company would adopt an admirably pragmatic approach in getting from point A to B… Don’t try to understand ‘em, just rope and throw and brand ‘em.

We are faced with a similar task in rounding up the horses to follow over the coming months. But in addition to roping and branding them (in a manner of speaking) we also need to understand something of the individual attributes of the thoroughbred for performance and stamina, particularly so now that the Flat season is rolling into gear.

It is time to turn to the Dosage system in giving us an edge in what to expect for the season ahead, in what is invariably a time of confusion and mixed messages from connections – who often seem no better placed to have a clear idea about the best plan for their horses than the rest of us.

The tables look at a selection of three-year-olds (colts and fillies). In crude terms those with the most stamina potential appear at the top and those with the least at the bottom, ranked in order of Dosage index (DI)/centre of distribution (CD). Those with less than 16 points in their profile have been excluded – these individuals should not be seen as necessarily inferior to those with a higher number of points but are instances in which the Dosage reading is less likely to prove reliable.  

2006 ROUND-UP

Three-year-old colts:

Three-year-old fillies:

COLTS 

Washington and Nelson

The Aidan O’Brien-trained Danehill colt George Washington headed the two-year-old World Rankings for 2005 at 124, a pound above Shamardal’s mark in 2004. He looks to have plenty of speed, but a mile will be no problem this season with a good concentration of points (19) in the mid Classic category of his Dosage profile. A brilliant winner of the Phoenix Stakes, he subsequently won his National Stakes follow up pleasingly enough. The colt is a half-brother to Grandera and his dam, Bordighera, was a 13-furlong winner at three in France. With just one Professional point in the stamina wing of the colt’s profile, distances beyond a mile should be within his scope. The average winning distance (AWD) for the progeny of Danehill (who is not a chef-de-race) is 9 furlongs. But the stallion throws up both speedier types and those with much more stamina (including Derby and Ascot Gold Cup winners), suggesting that his influence is not prepotent in terms of stamina but more a consequence of which mare he is matched to. As George Washington’s dam sire Alysheba has an AWD of 11 furlongs, middle distances may not be out of the question for the colt. Alysheba’s sire Alydar is a mid category Classic chef-de-race while Danehill’s sire Danzig is a split Intermediate/Classic influence. The speed he has already shown suggests he could be a colt of rare ability. Against this he tends to appear a little distracted and to run around a bit when the pressure is on. He nevertheless looks to be a credible Guineas favourite if his trainer can channel the brilliance he showed us in the Phoenix.

Horatio Nelson (also by Danehill) was four pounds below his stablemate George Washington in the World Rankings. His dam sire is Sadler’s Wells and his dam was the winner of the Oaks and Irish 1,000 Guineas and is half-sister to several winners, including Generous. He appears above George Washington in the Dosage table with four additional stamina points and while he should be effective at a mile has greater potential for middle distances than his stablemate. The colt is considered by some to have been unlucky in not beating Sir Percy in the Dewhurst.

Sir Percy doesn’t make a habit of winning by much of a margin, but he does keep winning – most recently with two short head defeats of Horatio Nelson and Cool Creek in Group 1 and Group 2 contests. The unbeaten Dewhurst winner is hailed by Marcus Tregoning as the best two-year old he has trained. Tregoning views him as a middle-distance colt for this season, while others think that his attributes are for speed. Tregoning’s view is supported by the fact that Sir Percy’s dam was a high-class performer over 11 furlongs while his dam sire Blakeney has an AWD of 12.1 furlongs for his progeny. His Dosage points total of just 10 is insufficient for a reliable reading and he is consequently excluded from the table. However, he does have four stamina points, which suggests that his trainer may not be barking up the wrong tree.

Godolphin acquisitions

The Barathea colt Opera Cape, trained last season by Sylvester Kirk, was reportedly rated by that trainer as a “proper Guineas contender” before joining Godolphin’s ranks. The colt finished last season as runner-up to Horatio Nelson in the Grand Criterium and again one place behind that rival when third to Sir Percy in the Dewhurst. Prior to that he had run out a convincing winner of a Group 3 at Sandown. He looks to prefer some cut in the ground and should be effective at distances of a mile or more this season.

The Machiavellian colt Palace Episode (now also with Godolphin) also ran in the Dewhurst and subsequently won the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster from Winged Cupid (another since acquired by Godolphin) on heavy going when more use was made of him. Palace Episode shows a mixture of influences, while he does have two stamina points the concentration of his influences is for speed, although the Guineas clearly should not present a problem with regard to stamina (he is also entered for the Irish 2,000 Guineas).

The In The Wings colt Winged Cupid (trained last season by Mark Johnston) is more straightforward to analyse, with an abundance of stamina influences – no less than 18 stamina points deriving from prepotent influences on both sides of his pedigree. Only Ballydoyle’s Galileo Galilei appears above him in the table (i.e. even more stamina potential) of the colts in our selection. Winged Cupid is entered for the Budweiser Irish Derby, but don’t be surprised if he proves to be Godolphin’s St Leger choice, while Galileo Galilei (whose dam sire is Ela-Mana-Mou) could be a future Gold Cup type.

Sadler’s Wells

Another who is likely to prove he has stamina on his side is Greek Well. The unraced Sir Michael Stoute-trained colt, by Sadler’s Wells out of the Darshaan mare Hellenic, is a full brother to Islington, Greek Dance, New Morning and Election Day and was subject to a Derby betting plunge earlier this year. His Dosage index is 0.77 with a slightly negative centre of distribution (CD) of -0.05. In other words, he’ll get all of the 12 furlongs on breeding (which is all we have to go on) and looks a fine Derby prospect if he shapes half as well as his breeding suggests he should.

The Sadler’s Wells colts Septimus (who shares the same sire and dam sire as Greek Well) and Hamdan Al Maktoum’s Nakheel (who remains in Johnston’s care) are two others to mention in the context of the Derby. Each with a Dosage index close to 1.00 and with centres of distribution of close to zero, they conform to the a virtual ideal for the 12 furlongs of Epsom.

Mark Johnston

Johnston reports that Nakheel has wintered particularly well and is training him with the Guineas in mind, although it is not clear at this stage if that is also the owner’s intention for the colt. Black Charmer, Atlantic Waves and Prince Of Light are three others that are possible for the Guineas and among those that Johnston looks sure to aim at pattern level events.

Storm Cat

The Storm Cat colt Art Museum has no stamina points in his profile and looks more of a sprinter. The other Storm Cat in our selection is the unraced Pescatorio who has a single stamina point and may be more of a speed miler. Pescatorio is the full brother of Some Kind of Tiger, a 7 furlong-winner at two, and half-brother to Balanchine, Romanov (a middle-distance performer), and Sun Chariot Stakes winner Red Slippers.

Finally, the excellent Amadeus Wolf, trained by Kevin Ryan, rounded off a top class 2-y-o campaign when gaining revenge for his defeat by Red Clubs (in the Coventry Stakes) turning the tables on that rival in the Group 2 Gimcrack at York and the Group 1 Shadwell Stud Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket. He has chances of getting the Guineas trip, but like his July Cup-winning sire, Mozart, if not quite making a mile his best trip, looks set to star at distances up to a mile.

FILLIES

The Inchinor filly and winner of the Prix Morny, Silca’s Sister, is excluded from our table as she has just two points in her profile, which tells us next to nothing in Dosage terms. After being well beaten at Newmarket she won her maiden at Newbury before beating the colts (and fillies) including Ivan Denisovich (the favourite in the Morny) in good style, handling the testing conditions better than the others. She previously proved effective on much faster ground at Newbury and is another that Godolphin has snapped up for the Classic season.

We fell out of love with the Diesis filly New Girlfriend, who disappointed in the Morny after previously winning Listed and Group 2 events in France. However, she looks likely to appreciate a step up in trip and appeared not to handle soft going. She may well prove worth another chance back on good ground.

Dual Group 2 winner Flashy Wings didn’t do much wrong last season under the care of Mick Channon, winning four races before narrow defeats at Newbury in a Sales race (giving 6lb to the winner) and Newmarket in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes, finishing two necks down to Donna Blini and Wake Up Maggie. A highly successfully campaigned filly and near the head of the market for the 1,000 Guineas. She should get the mile, but may be vulnerable to those with more scope for improvement.

Rumplestiltskin

Rumplestiltskin managed to trump Flashy Wings in the World Rankings for juvenile fillies, impressing in the Prix Marcel Boussac and beaten only once in her six starts, when third behind La Chunga on Good/Firm in the Albany Stakes at York, on faster going than appeared ideal for her (her successes have come on Good or Good/Soft going). Another by Danehill out of a Mr Prospector mare she looks a worthy 1,000 Guineas favourite, although with just one stamina point in her Dosage profile others in our selection look better suited to the Oaks.

Sir Michael Stoute’s Selkirk filly Scottish Stage finished runner-up to Race For The Stars in a Listed event at Newmarket following her maiden win at Lingfield. Although Ballydoyle’s Race For The Stars had previously disappointed in the Moyglare Stud Stakes (Group 1) at the Curragh when finishing last of nine to Rumplestiltskin, that run may be best forgotten and Race For The Stars could yet make up into a credible Guineas candidate in her own right.

Nannina, trained by John Gosden, finished behind Donna Blini at Newmarket and Mixed Blessing at Newbury before leaving that form behind to score in the Group 3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood followed by the Group 1 Meon Valley Stud Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket, just getting up to score by a neck from Alexandrova.

Ballydoyle’s Oaks hand

Ballydoyle’s Alexandrova looks like an Oaks filly, and like her stablemate Chenchikova – winner of her only race at two at Tipperary, but beaten into fourth behind Danehill Music in the recent Group 3 Park Express European Breeders Fund Stakes at the Curragh – is by Sadler’s Wells. This pair heads the market for the Oaks and look the right types, although Chenchikova will need to improve on her recent outing. The other filly to mention in the context of having the stamina for the Oaks is the Gosden-trained Innocent Air who finished her season by beating the colts in a Listed event at Newbury, like her stablemate Nannina leaving her early season form behind her.

SUMMARY

At this stage the two colts to follow for stamina look likely to be Galileo Galilei and Winged Cupid. The unraced Greek Well looks to have the right sort of Dosage profile for the Derby, as does the closely related Septimus. Art Museum and Amadeus Wolf look to be primarily about speed. George Washington has shown us a touch of brilliance. The question now is will he continue to reproduce it. If so he looks set to excel at 8 furlongs and perhaps a little more.