2007 Two Thousand Guineas Preview
 by Steve Miller

The following article by Steve Miller has recently been published in RACEFORM UPDATE in the UK.  It is presented here with the permission of the author.

Although he could prove even better at middle distances, a fully fit Teofilo holds strong chances of landing the 2,000 Guineas. But Duke Of Marmalade, Adagio, Strategic Prince and US Ranger appear better suited to a mile and worth taking the favourite on with.  

Get ready to raise a toast to Marmalade in 2,000 Guineas

NEWMARKET’S STAN JAMES 2,000 GUINEAS presents us with a field of variously exposed colts brimming with potential. The hopes and expectations for this generation’s thoroughbred elite will again be measured and dashed against the reality of the unrelenting Rowley Mile. Some that go into the dip seem to never come out again, while a few define themselves as something apart from the ordinary by stamping their class over those left stumbling around in their wake.

Analysing the race beforehand is part of the thrill. What the form won’t tell us we again look to the Dosage system to fill. The Dosage system has supplied us with a 100% strike rate in this race in the time that I’ve been writing this column. Last year the confident vote went to George Washington, the year before it told us that Footstepsinthesand and Oratorio had a clear advantage over the red-hot favourite Dubawi – both finishing in front of that one in the race itself – and in 2004 the system gave us Haafhd to topple the unsuitable favourite One Cool Cat.

The system is clearly paying its way, not only telling us who will win but just as importantly which short-priced hot shots (e.g. Dubawi and One Cool Cat) won’t. To find this year’s winner we again need to identify which individual has the appropriate blend of speed and stamina for this particular race. (We look at those bracketed in the ‘sweet spot’ for the race at the end of this article.) We must again look to marry stamina suitability with class.

The table looks at a selection of the 30 three-year-old colts confirmed at the five-day stage (and includes the supplemented US Ranger). In crude terms those with the most stamina potential appear at the top and those with the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage index (DI).

Selection of 2,000 Guineas contenders

Godolphin
Godolphin’s Noverre colt Truly Royal won his only start last term, a Newmarket maiden, before finishing runner-up to Mount Hadley on his return to action in Dubai. The colt has emerged as Godolphin’s number one in the pecking order for the 2,000 Guineas following work, described as “solid” at Nad Al Sheba under Frankie Dettori.

Mofarij, the well bred half-brother of the high-class pair Iffraaj and Kareymah, finished runner up to Sir Michael Stoute’s Spanish Moon in a 19-runner maiden at Newmarket last term before running out a comfortable winner on his return this season at Nad Al Sheba, looking much better suited to faster conditions than he had encountered at Newmarket. The son of Bering appears at the head of our table, the only one with a negative centre of distribution (CD) – indicating pronounced stamina potential.

Adagio, the main contender for trainer Sir Michael Stoute (who also trains Al Shemali and Al Tharib), ran out an impressive winner of the Craven, quickening well at the business end of the race despite being slow to get into it and not getting a clear passage. In so doing he has propelled himself to the forefront of Guineas fancies. Adagio went to the Dewhurst last term on the back of a maiden win and wasn’t far away in that after rearing up at the start. The Craven runner-up Sonny Red is a stablemate of the impressive Greenham winner Major Cadeaux, but is also a legitimate Guineas contender in his own right whether here or in France. Sonny Red is a son of Redback out of a Petong mare – the Dosage is of little help with him as he has just four points in his profile (insufficient for a meaningful reading and he is excluded from the table for this reason). However, three of those four points are for stamina, so 8 furlongs should not pose a problem.

The unbeaten Jim Bolger-trained Teofilo has twice accounted for Holy Roman Emperor at Group 1 level as a juvenile and has won narrow victories over other Ballydoyle inmates Eagle Mountain and Red Rock Canyon. Teofilo, by Galileo out of a Danehill mare, is brother to Senora Galilei – a 10-furlong winner at three from the same yard. Eight furlongs will not pose a problem and the Guineas favourite looks to have the scope to improve at middle distances. The colt reportedly suffered a setback in his preparation for the Guineas although he has apparently managed to shrug this off. Nevertheless, he will need to be on his mettle to justify favouritism here.

Peter Chapple-Hyam
Peter Chapple-Hyam trains Dutch Art for this, with Tariq taken out at the five-day stage and Authorized pointed at the Derby. Dutch Art easily beat Strategic Prince in the Norfolk Stakes, by some seven lengths over five furlongs last term. It is unlikely that it would be the same story should the pair meet at a mile this season, however. Dutch Art went on to win the Middle Park and Prix Morny but his unbeaten run was brought to an end on his reappearance this term in the Greenham Stakes by the Richard Hannon-trained Major Cadeaux. The Cadeaux Genereux colt hadn’t been seen out since finishing jarred up in the Coventry Stakes, but put his previous form behind him with a front-running display to which Dutch Art could find no reply. Although Dutch Art might be expected to come on for the race, the same might also be said of the winner and Dutch Art could well prove best at sprint distances anyway. I like the look of Major Cadeaux, but the Dosage tells us that there are others better suited to this race. While he will no doubt get the mile, he may prove even better at just shy of it and there are others here that will truly see out the trip and then some. The Mick Channon-trained Halicarnassus filled third spot in the Greenham – he had finished at the back of the Dewhurst field on his final start last term but was better suited to returning to faster conditions.

Strategic Prince won three of his five starts last term, two of them at Group 2 level (at Newmarket and Goodwood). Trained by Paul Cole for Sultan Ahmad Shah, the colt finished third to Teofilo and Holy Roman Emperor in the Dewhurst, on softer than ideal going for him. Like many others in this he is heading straight for Newmarket without a prep, and his trainer is not ruling out a tilt at the Derby at this stage. The colt shows a good turn of foot and will be at his best on good or faster going. The Dosage system indicates a best trip of 9-10 furlongs and he has obvious chances in a fast run Guineas on decent ground.

Ballydoyle contingent
Mount Nelson and Duke Of Marmalade appear to be the most likely to step up to the mark for Aidan O’Brien’s Ballydoyle team as replacements for Holy Roman Emperor, who has been removed to stud to fill the place left by last year’s enigmatic 2,000 Guineas winner George Washington – now destined to return to the racetrack for a third season rather than continue with his stud duties.

Duke Of Marmalade (by Danehill) did not finish out of the first two in his three starts last term and looks to be a fine prospect, going down by a neck to Strategic Prince in the Veuve Clicquot Vintage Stakes at Goodwood, where he reportedly suffered a fractured pastern – the pair winning out over the Mark Johnston-trained duo Kirklees and Silent Waves in third and fourth. Silent Waves was subsequently placed behind Eagle Mountain (another top prospect from Ballydoyle) while Kirklees finished his season on a winning note when getting the short-head verdict in the Gran Criterium at San Siro. Neither of these represents the Johnston yard and Dubai’s Touch, who beat Prime Defender in the Easter Stakes at Kempton, has been taken out at the five-day confirmation stage leaving the stable with no runners. Duke Of Marmalade has been put through his paces under Mick Kinane in work with the maiden Basalt ahead of his reappearance. He is a lovely laid back individual that has already shown decent form and is one that should progress this season.

After going down by a length to Dermot Weld’s Treasure Map in his debut at Gowran Park, Mount Nelson won his two subsequent outings, finishing last season with a Group 1 win at a mile in the Criterium International, at Saint-Cloud, at the expense of the Philippe Demercastel-trained Spirit One and his own stablemate Yellowstone.

Yellowstone and Royal Lodge Stakes winner Admiralofthefleet were put firmly in their place by Teofilo’s lead horse Creachadoir (a half brother to the smart four-year-old Youmzain) in Leopardstown’s 2,000 Guineas Trial Stakes. Yellowstone fared best of Ballydoyle’s duo, staying on and can be expected to progress, but he looks to be down the pecking order here. Creachadoir, a son of King's Best, is likely to be aimed at the Irish 2,000 Guineas or the Prix du Jockey-Club. The colt has subsequently finished fourth to Mores Wells in the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown.

Eagle Mountain, the Beresford Stakes winner, has caught the eye in his early season work under Colm O'Donoghue. He is another who while proving effective at this trip could well improve at middle distances.

The Geoff Huffer-trained Cockney Rebel did not finish out of the frame in his three outings last season, rounding off his two-year-old campaign with a close up third to Vital Equine and Eagle Mountain in the Group 2 Sportsman Newspaper Champagne Stakes at York. Olivier Peslier is booked to ride. Vital Equine went on to attempt to add a Group 1 race to his tally of three wins last term, but did not prove up to the task finishing down the field to Holy Roman Emperor, Teofilo and Mount Nelson, on three subsequent outings (twice in France and once at Newmarket).

Prime Defender and Tobosa represent Newmarket’s Sporting Index European Free Handicap form, with the former just holding off a strong late challenge from William Jarvis’s Tobosa (receiving 4 lbs). Jarvis stated that he believed this to be a good Guineas trial and has given his charge the green light to take part on the expectation that the Rowley Mile will suit him better than the 7 furlongs of the Free Handicap. The Dosage system backs up this belief, indeed it suggests he can improve again at middle distances – appearing one from the top of our table with eight stamina points, derived from Ela-Mana-Mou (four Professional points) and Nijinsky (two Solid points) on his dam side, and Sadler’s Wells (two Solid points) on his sire’s side.

The Hamdan Al Maktoum-owned Haatef (by Danzig out of a Mr Prospector mare), trained by Kevin Prendergast, won a 25-runner maiden at the Curragh before finishing a close-up fourth in the Dewhurst behind Teofilo. There is a marked bias to speed in his Dosage profile, but a strong central concentration of 24 points in his mid Classic category gives him some chance in a truly run mile.

Diamond Tycoon ran out a wide-margin winner of a 16-runner maiden at Newbury at the Guineas trip in a fast time. He ran once last term when finishing runner-up in a Newmarket maiden. The Johannesburg colt is difficult to weigh up – he is only lightly exposed and could be anything. The mile clearly presents no problems and Jamie Spencer will retain the ride.

The unbeaten four-from-four US Ranger has been a market mover of late and has been supplemented for the race at a cost of £25,000. Michael Tabor and Joseph Allen jointly own the Jean-Claude Rouget-trained colt. The son of Danzig won three races at a mile as a two-year-old – albeit in the south of France, at Toulouse and Bordeaux – and was an impressive four-length winner at 7 furlongs on his reappearance this term in the Prix Djebel, at Maisons-Laffitte, beating Prior Warning who had previously won at Listed level. The Dosage puts US Ranger just where he should be for the Guineas and he should make his presence felt.

Sweet spot
The average Dosage index (DI) for the past ten 2,000 Guineas winners is 1.55 (see table), but those with slightly higher DIs than this (up to around DI 2.5) seem the ideal type for the race. Of the past 10 winners those that fall into this bracket are: George Washington (1.67), Haafhd (2.33), Rock Of Gibraltar (2.16), Kings Best (2.06), Island Sands (1.57) and King Of Kings (1.78). Footstepsinthesand was also included with these in 2005, but now has an adjusted DI of 1.08 following the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race. Golan is the only winner of this race in the past 10 renewals with a DI of below 1.00 (indicating greater stamina potential than is usually associated with this race).

* Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)

If we concentrate on those lying in the band of DI 1.2-2.5 (capturing the majority of the past 10 winners), we are left with a shortlist of: Teofilo (1.20), Truly Royal (1.26), Diamond Tycoon (1.50), Strategic Prince (1.55), Vital Equine (1.67), Duke Of Marmalade (1.88), Cockney Rebel (1.91), US Ranger (2.29) and Adagio (2.50).

Of those bracketed in this sweet spot that also look good enough, Teofilo has obvious chances (although his ideal trip looks likely to be at around 10 furlongs). Duke Of Marmalade, Strategic Prince, US Ranger and Adagio look ideally suited to a mile, or a little further. These represent viable alternatives to Teofilo. Mount Nelson should also not be overlooked (falling just outside our range, on 2.56), especially if his stable indicates that the colt is preferred to Duke Of Marmalade. Interestingly, the one who falls just outside the range at the other end is the Aidan O’Brien-trained Eagle Mountain (on DI 1.12). So while Duke Of Marmalade is plum in the middle of the sweet spot for the yard, he is book-ended by stablemates Mount Nelson and Eagle Mountain – the three virtually defining the range of our concentration.

While Teofilo looks booked for at least a place (well being aside), they are queuing up to prove better adapted to this race, with just the right mix of speed and stamina – with Duke Of Marmalade (and his two aforementioned stablemates), together with Adagio, Strategic Prince and US Ranger poised to give the favourite a run for your money at more generous odds.

Suggested finishing order:
    1)       Duke Of Marmalade
    2)       Adagio
    3)       Teofilo
    4)       Strategic Prince
    5)       US Ranger 

1,000 Guineas

Of the market leaders in the 1,000 Guineas, Finsceal Beo’s profile is better suited to Newmarket’s Rowley Mile than that of Sander Camillo, which has no stamina points in her profile.

Consequently Finsceal Beo is taken to account for the Dixie Union filly at the trip and grab the laurels.