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2007
Ascot Gold Cup Preview The following article by Steve Miller has recently been published in RACEFORM UPDATE in the UK. It is presented here with the permission of the author. Yeats
has most to fear from the mare Montare, the filly Allegretto and his own
understudy Scorpion (should he line up), but is taken to see them off to claim
back-to-back Ascot Gold Cups 'Second Coming' Yeats can double up WILLIAM
BUTLER YEATS, the celebrated Irish poet and dramatist, once wrote of a ‘second
coming’. One wonders if in a prescient moment he had his namesake, Yeats the
celebrated Irish racehorse, in mind, returning to the scene of his Ascot Gold
Cup success, when penning: And what rough beast,
its hour come round at last, Okay we’re talking Royal
Ascot here rather than Bethlehem and back-to-back Gold Cup victories rather than
a second coming in the form of the antichrist. Aidan O’Brien will also be
hoping for rather less slouching from his “rough beast” (or thoroughbred
racehorse) than William Butler foretold, but you get the general idea. Done and dusted then?…
Well, just in case a few of you are thinking this is a bit tenuous and are
expecting more in the way of analysis, let’s run through what’s required to
win this stamina-sapping prize. The
Dosage system has proved of inestimable help in races such as the Ascot Gold
Cup, in which many of those taking part have scant comparable form, other than
those that have run in the race before. Just three of last year’s field could
line up again on Thursday – the winner Yeats, Prix du Cadran winner Sergeant
Cecil (fifth in this a year ago) and Tungsten
Strike (eighth). While
few thoroughbreds truly stay 20 furlongs, if the pace in the Gold Cup is a fast
one the horse with the greatest reserves of stamina ought to win, assuming that
horse is not run off its legs in the early stages and that relative ability and
general fitness are otherwise broadly comparable. The
problem with the Ascot Gold Cup is that a horse with the right sort of profile
for such extreme distance that is also good enough to win at Group 1 level is
relatively rare, which is why those with seemingly unsuitable profiles are also
able to win the race against ‘slowboats’. However,
those with either (or both) a Dosage index (DI) of less than 1.00 and a zero or
negative centre of distribution (CD), to have won the Gold Cup in the past
decade or so are: Yeats (7/1), Papineau (5/1), Kayf Tara (twice, 11/1 and 11/8),
Enzeli (20/1), Celeric (11/2), Classic Cliché (3/1), Double Trigger (9/4) and
Arcadian Heights (20/1). All
of these could have been backed using the Dosage system, which clearly gives us
a huge edge in this particular race – supplying us with a couple of 20/1
winners in Enzeli (DI 0.54, CD -0.45) and Arcadian Heights (DI 0.90, CD -0.05)
and 11/1, 7/1, 11/2 and 5/1 winners (all SPs). The likes of Double Trigger (DI
0.21, CD -1.40), although a more prohibitive 9/4, was screaming out to be backed
for this, as was Celeric (DI 0.00, CD -1.44), whose entire points total appeared
in the stamina wing of his profile (which is extremely rare and demands
attention in this race). Moreover,
those that have such profiles seem to run well in this race habitually in spite
of what they achieve elsewhere and regardless of odds. Against
this it should also be noted that the likes of Westerner and Mr Dinos were able
to win with DIs of slightly more than 1.50 and Royal Rebel won with a DI of more
than 2.00. Winged
D’Argent (DI 0.45, CD
-0.38), Reefscape (DI 0.68, CD
-0.08) and Yeats (DI 0.89, CD
+0.08) were the best Dosage matches last year, appearing at 1, 2 and 3 at the
head of last year’s table. Yeats and Reefscape duly finished first and second
ahead of the 5/2 favourite Distinction. It should be noted that Yeats is further
down the table this year and may be vulnerable to superior stamina aptitude
higher up (assuming enough class is also present). Winged
D’Argent (ninth last year and fifth in 2005, when run at York) had sufficient
stamina but not the class to succeed in Group 1 company. 2007 Ascot Gold Cup participants
The Dosage system is
of no help with Le
Miracle, by Monsun out
of a Kendor mare. The six-year-old has just two points in his profile and is
consequently excluded from our table as the reading is meaningless. The
six-year-old gelding has won six times at 14 to 16 furlongs, the best at Group 3
level, and was placed third behind Sergeant Cecil and Shamdala in last
season’s Prix du Cadran at the required trip. The gelding appears to stay well
and looked useful when landing the Prix
Gladiateur by five lengths. The Cape Cross filly Rising
Cross has just 10 points and is also excluded from the table as her reading
could be misleading. However, two of those 10 points are for stamina, derived
from Solid chef-de-race Busted on her dam side. The Park Hill Stakes
winner has been kept to Group company in her subsequent four races, finishing
fifth to Montare in the Prix Royal-Oak at Longchamp and most recently a
well-earned fourth behind Scorpion in the Coronation Cup at Epsom. The John
Best-trained filly has won five times, never at Group level – although she
finished third (beaten five lengths) to Alexandrova in the Irish Oaks last year.
Tungsten Strike,
handled by Amanda Perrett, is the winner of six races – three at 14 furlongs
and three at 16 furlongs. He has been tried beyond two miles on three occasions
(at Newmarket, Ascot and York), finishing out of contention on each occasion.
His latest triumph came at the expense of Baddam and The Last Drop in the Group
3 Sagaro Stakes at Ascot at the beginning of May, but he has subsequently failed
at Group 2 level. The single stamina point in the gelding’s profile is on his
dam side derived from Nijinsky. The figures for Tungsten Strike do not appear to
be reliable as they are skewed toward speed over stamina, despite having
Generous as his dam sire. It could be there is unrecognised prepotent stamina in
his pedigree. Nevertheless, the fact that he has won at two miles is no
guarantee that he has the stamina required for this additional half mile. He
looked likely to stay and be placed in last year’s Gold Cup but found nothing
when the race developed in earnest and finished a well beaten eighth. He seems
to prefer a sound surface although he has won on soft going. Perrett also trains Bulwark,
an exposed five-year-old who nevertheless appears to be on the upgrade. He has
won at two miles in handicap company and has been placed at Group level at
Newmarket, York and most recently at Sandown. The Montjeu horse has strong
prepotent stamina influence from the Crepello/Busted line through his dam sire
Bustino and from Sadler’s Wells on his sire’s side. He looks made for the
race but may be a little short of the required ability. The same might be
said of the Mick Channon-trained Baddam. There is no doubt that he is
made for the Gold Cup trip, pulling off the notable double of the Ascot Stakes
and Queen Alexandra Stakes at the Royal meeting last season. He has failed to
get back in front in six subsequent starts, but was runner-up to Tungsten Strike
on his latest appearance in the Sagaro Stakes. The five-year-old’s negative CD
(-0.32) marks him out for almost bottomless stamina capability, appearing at the
head of our table. He will
not fail for stamina and is in form, but will need to improve again to match the
ability of others here. Sergeant Cecil has had a remarkable career that somehow keeps getting better. He won the 2005 Cesarewitch off top weight completing a unique treble of big handicap victories following the Northumberland Plate and Ebor. At eight he is not getting any younger, but has actually hit the form of his life since last year’s Gold Cup, winning four times at 14 to 20 furlongs, including the Group 1 Prix du Cadran, and registering the highest ratings (low 120s) of his career to date. On the pick of his form you couldn’t rule out Rod Millman’s charge, but he is held by Yeats on Ascot Gold Cup and Goodwood Cup form. Millman has strength in depth in the stayers’ division as he also trains the now withdrawn Hawridge Prince who strung together a sequence of three wins over two miles at the end of last season, culminating in the Group 3 Jockey Club Cup at Newmarket. Geordieland has not won beyond 12 furlongs in 25 appearances, although he was runner up to Sergeant Cecil in the most recent of these, at 14 furlongs, and to Yeats in last season’s Goodwood Cup at 16 furlongs. His Dosage reading is for middle-distance stamina, which appears to be his forte having won three times at a mile-and-a-half. Although the six-year-old is probably at his best at further than 12 furlongs there is no obvious reason why Jamie Osborne’s charge should reverse his latest running with Sergeant Cecil in the Yorkshire Cup, on 5lb worse terms here over 20 furlongs, despite optimism from the yard that he might do just that. Jamie Spencer is booked to renew his association with the horse. Last year’s Gold
Cup hero, the Aidan O’Brien-trained Yeats, is a classy stayer who is
just as effective at middle distances. He is a dual Group 1 winner who has won
eight of his 14 races, including this last year from the Group 1-winning
Reefscape, who he had previously beaten in the Coronation Cup and subsequently
dismissed in the Goodwood Cup. At Goodwood, arguably his finest performance to
date (giving weight to everything other than Reefscape), he slammed not only
Reefscape but also four of those potentially lining up against him here in
Geordieland, Tungsten Strike, Sergeant Cecil and Baddam. Mick Kinane will assist
Yeats in his bid for back-to-back Gold Cup glory. We noted before last year’s
Gold Cup in this column (despite then being untried beyond 14 furlongs) that
with a DI of 0.89 and a CD of close to zero that “it would not be a major
surprise if he were to run a very big race”. The same is clearly true this
time. The question is, is there anything as good as him in the field this year
that will stay the trip any better? Understudy Yeats’ stablemates Scorpion
and the now withdrawn Septimus have both been prominent in the betting behind
Yeats in recent weeks. Either would be a near match in terms of class to Yeats,
although Scorpion looks a little less suited to staying as well as either his
older stablemate or Septimus. The five-year-old Scorpion is, like Yeats, a dual
Group 1 winner (St Leger and Coronation Cup) and was impressive in holding the
staying on runner-up Septimus in the Coronation Cup on his latest start. Should
Scorpion line up against Yeats on Thursday, rather than go for the Hardwicke
Stakes on Saturday, we should be left in no doubt that he would be running in
his own right. Montare The Jonathan
Pease-trained Montjeu mare Montare is
one who certainly seems to appreciate a trip and looks to be improving. Although
capable of winning at 10 and 12 furlongs the five-year-old’s best performances
have been at two miles (not tried beyond), when beating Bellamy Cay, Sergeant
Cecil and Lord Du Sud in the Group 1 Prix Royal-Oak at the end of last season
and just missing out on runner-up spot when a staying on third to Lord Du Sud,
eight lengths clear of Le Miracle in fourth, in the Group 2 Prix Vicomtesse
Vigier at Longchamp in May. The George Strawbridge-owned mare
appears capable of staying on when the majority of others have had enough, which
together with her 3lb allowance will hold her in good stead here. Barry Hills’ The
Last Drop was touched off by the John Dunlop-trained Mount Kilimanjaro in a
Listed event over 14 furlongs at Nottingham this season. He subsequently
finished third to Tungsten Strike in the Sagaro Stakes but weakened markedly on
his latest outing in the Yorkshire Cup and was pulled up. Bulwark, Mount
Kilimanjaro and Tungsten Strike were among those that were no match for Sir
Michael Stoute’s Lancashire Oaks winner Allegretto when tried at 16
furlongs at Group 2 level in the Henry II Stakes at Sandown. The Cheveley Park
Stud-owned four-year-old filly has won three races, two of which have been Group
2, of her eight starts. She looks capable of going on to better things and has
improved for stepping up in trip. Like Rising Cross she will benefit from a 5lb
allowance. The Jean-Claude
Rouget Lord Du Sud has proved capable of winning at Listed and Group
level at up to two miles (not tried beyond) and excels on soft and heavy going
– the six-year-old has won 10 times, only once on Good going, all of his other
victories have been on Soft or Heavy. The course is unlikely to get enough rain
during an unsettled period to turn it to his favoured going. Andrew Balding’s
new recruit, Diamond Quest, previously with South African handler Mike De
Kock, holds an alternative engagement in the Hardwicke Stakes and his Dosage
reading (DI 1.00 and a CD of close to zero), indicates middle-distance stamina
and an optimum trip of 12 furlongs-plus. Finalmente
beat Elusive Dream and Bulwark on the all-weather at Lingfield in a handicap
over two miles. The gelding has run in three handicaps since, all at Newmarket,
without success, but was staying on in the most recent of these over 14
furlongs. Middle distances to two miles looks to be the five-year-old’s
optimum trip. Godolphin The well-travelled
grey entire Cherry Mix has won three Group 1s (in Italy and Germany). The
furthest the six-year-old has won at is 13 furlongs (a Group 2 event in France
when three). Godolphin’s Laverock (now withdrawn along with Tam Lin and The
Geezer) won the Group 1 Gran Premio del Jockey Club in San Siro last season over
12 furlongs, in which Cherry Mix (who won the race in 2005) was placed third.
Laverock’s Dosage reading suggests he can improve if stepped up to staying
trips in excess of middle distance while Cherry Mix looks less certain to meet
this requirement. However, it seems that Laverock could head for the Hardwicke
run over 12 furlongs. Frankie Dettori takes the ride on Cherry Mix. Negative
centre of distribution If a Dosage
index of 1.00 and a centre of distribution of zero is the blueprint for a Derby
contender, for a potential Ascot Gold Cup winner we are ideally looking for a DI
of less than 1.00 and a negative CD. Recent winners of the race conforming to
this ideal are: Papineau (DI 0.88, CD -0.04), Enzeli (0.54, -0.45), Celeric
(0.00, -1.44), Double Trigger (0.21, -1.40) and Arcadian Heights (0.90, -0.05)
– while Yeats (0.89, +0.08), dual
winner Kayf Tara (0.90, +0.08) and Classic Cliché (0.84, 0.00) qualify in terms
of DI and are very close to qualifying in respect of the CD. This
is all the more striking when we consider that negative CD horses are far less
common than those with positive CDs, which explains why horses are able to win
the Gold Cup in years when there is no particular good example of this type of
horse.
Shortlist It is probably wise not to exclude Le
Miracle, whose Dosage
reading is of no help. Also,
Sergeant Cecil keeps
improving at eight and must be in with a shout of advancing on last year’s
fifth place – despite a higher than typical DI of 1.55. However, this didn’t
stop the likes of Westerner (1.53) or Mr
Dinos (1.59). Summary It is difficult to
get away from last year’s winner Yeats, particularly after his hugely
impressive subsequent victory in the Goodwood Cup in which he trounced a small
handful of those lining up here giving them weight. In terms of class his
own stablemate Scorpion poses the most potent threat, but his stamina
aptitude is not quite as strong. Sergeant Cecil is in great form and
cannot be ruled out, but is also held by Yeats. In the end we can but
trust and hope that W B Yeats’ ‘second coming’ is not code for coming
second. Those who suspect this could be the outcome at least have some
ammunition to take him on with. Montare looks the each-way value (if
possible back her “without the favourite”) as a supplement to a win bet on Yeats. Verdict:
1) YEATS |