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2007
Epsom Derby Preview The
following article by Steve Miller has recently been published in RACEFORM UPDATE
in the UK. It is presented here with the permission of the author. Authorized
conforms to Dosage blue print for the Derby and has plenty going for him besides
– Aqaleem and Eagle Mountain may be next best Authorized has all the credentials for victory at Epsom THE OLD ADAGE goes
that the fastest horse wins the 2,000 Guineas, the luckiest horse wins the Derby
and the best horse wins the St Leger. The Dosage system tells us that a large
chunk of that ‘luck’ in the Derby resides in having a blend of speed and
stamina that conforms to a Dosage index (DI) of 1.00 and a centre of
distribution (CD) of zero – or the best fit to this standard in relative terms
of those taking part. In addition to stamina suitability (to which the Dosage
system confines itself) other factors will of course muddy the waters – not
least the ability to handle the track and the prevailing going conditions, how
well the horse has been prepared for the race and simply how good it is to begin
with. But when a high combination of these things
come together – when the one that has the best Dosage profile for the race is
also the favourite, is both agile and well balanced, and is trained to the bone
by a consummate professional, we are presented (dare I say it) with something of
the look of a good thing. This year offers us such a prime example in
Authorized. It looks to be the opportunity Frankie Dettori has been waiting for,
one he will find difficult to mess up. The Italian’s ambition of winning the
Derby seems closer than it has been before – it has become palpable almost
close enough to taste. The
accompanying table shows the 19 left in at the five-day confirmation stage and
as usual is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top
and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage index (DI). 2007 Derby contenders
Empty
handed Eastern
Anthem
was, it is true, backed for the Derby earlier this year, but could only finish
third to Salford Mill on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket at the beginning
of May and was a subsequent uninspiring runner-up to Halicarnassus in a
three-runner Listed event at Goodwood, in receipt of 5lb from the winner. The
Singspiel colt is the first foal of 1,000 Guineas and Oaks winner Kazzia. He
derives 11 stamina points from In The Wings (and his sire Sadler’s Wells) and
from Shirley Heights – who is the sire of Eastern Anthem’s dam sire (Zinaad).
Eastern Anthem appears near the head of our table with a negative centre of
distribution, denoting pronounced stamina potential. The Derby trip will present
no problem, but enthusiasm for his chances does not appear to be brimming. It
is probably just as well that Jalil has been withdrawn, the Storm Cat
colt has no prepotent stamina points in his Dosage profile and would have
appeared at the foot of our table. His stamina profile is far from what
it ought to be to compete effectively in this. The writing was also on the wall
for Mythical Kid who could only finish a well-beaten fourth of six in a
Listed event behind the eye-catching Lucarno at Newmarket last weekend. Lucarno
finished runner-up to Diamond Tycoon in a good-looking Newbury maiden in April
and he followed up with a facile win on the Kempton all-weather before winning
at Newmarket at Listed level over a mile and a quarter last weekend. John Gosden
has indicated that he is giving serious consideration to turning him out for
this and the Dynaformer colt has good chances of getting the trip. There
was a lot to like about the way in which the Peter Chapple-Hyam trained Authorized
stamped his authority on the Dante Stakes, the most significant trial for
the Derby, teeing himself up to emulate Motivator – the last horse to complete
the Dante/Derby double. The 25/1 winner of the Racing Post Trophy, when run at
Newbury last term, is by Montjeu out of a Saumarez mare and should excel when
stepped up to a mile-and-a-half, having just the sort of headline numbers in his
Dosage profile that you would expect for the Derby. O’Brien
team… The
trainer sent four of the five to post in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial, which
also included the Ballysax Stakes winner Mores Wells. Archipenko quickened up to
win pleasingly from his fast finishing stablemate Yellowstone, with favourite
Macarthur disappointing behind these. Yellowstone won a maiden at Cork
last term but has not managed to finish in front again in five subsequent starts
and could only manage eleventh place in the 2,000 Guineas. Yellowstone has no
points in the stamina wing of his Dosage profile and does not look to have an
obvious chance in this. Archipenko
won his maiden at the third time of asking last term when defeating
Honoured Guest by six lengths. His chances of getting 12 furlongs rest primarily
on his dam side. Nijinsky is his dam sire and Archipenko’s four prepotent
stamina points are derived from him. The sire’s side holds out less obvious
stamina attributes, but Kingmambo has sired the likes of St Leger winner Rule Of
Law, so when matched with the right mare is capable of getting staying types.
Archipenko is likely to be effective at up to a mile and a half, although his
optimum trip may be a little shy of the required distance. There are others here
who appear more likely to fully see out the trip. He may prove better suited to
the French Derby. Eagle
Mountain
looked promising when finishing fifth in the 2,000 Guineas and looks sure to
improve at middle distances. The Rock Of Gibraltar colt, out of a Darshaan mare,
is well placed in our table as a horse entitled to take part in the Derby and
has sidestepped the Irish Guineas to take part here. He has obvious chances in
terms of suitability and ability. AFTER
finishing down the field behind Mores Wells in a Leopardstown maiden at the
beginning of April Mahler stepped up his effort when returning to the
course to win comfortably. He followed this up in a 12 furlong Derby trial at
Gowran Park where he made all running out a comfortable winner. The colt has no
worries on the stamina front being by Galileo out of a Rainbow Quest mare and
has 10 points in the stamina wing of his profile. Soldier Of Fortune
got up to beat Arabian Gulf in the Chester Vase, in a closely contested duel.
The colt won the Prix Noailles at Longchamp on his reappearance this season and
finished runner-up to the subsequent Musidora Stakes winner and Oaks favourite
Passage Of Time in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud on his final start last term. He
had previously beaten Mores Wells in a maiden at Navan. Anton Chekhov
won the Group 2 Prix Hocquart at Longchamp by a head over 11 furlongs after
finishing down the field behind Mores Wells in the Ballysax Stakes. Acapulco,
didn’t appear as a two-year-old but won his maiden at Navan before splitting
Salford Mill and Eastern Anthem at Newmarket. The Galileo colt has reportedly
been showing well at home on the gallops under Seamus Heffernan. The trip will
not be a problem – like Eagle Mountain he is out of a Darshaan mare – and he
could have a much bigger chance than his current odds suggest. Admiralofthefleet has
won three of his six starts including Group victories in the Royal Lodge Stakes
at Ascot and the Dee Stakes on his latest start at Chester. Chinese Whisper has
only won a Galway maiden in six appearances despite finishing runner-up in a
Group 3 event at Longchamp. He has been earmarked by connections for the French
Derby. At the time of writing any of O’Brien’s remaining eight could still
go to Epsom. …and
the others Since graduating from the all-weather David
Elsworth’s Salford Mill lost out by a head to Petara Bay at Newmarket
in the Feilden Stakes (over 9 furlongs), but returned to winning ways under
Kerrin McEvoy when seeing off Acapulco and Eastern Anthem in the Newmarket
Stakes run at a furlong further. The Peintre Celebre colt, out of a Kahyasi
mare, has chances of getting the trip and has reportedly begun to sparkle after
putting in a couple of lacklustre pieces of work.
Ted Durcan takes the ride as McEvoy is claimed by Godolphin. Terry Mills is due to saddle both Petara
Bay and Kid Mambo on Saturday. The nearest Mills has come to winning
the Derby is with fifth-placed All The Way in 1999. Although Petara Bay beat
Salford Mill in the Feilden he disappointed in the Sandown Classic Trial and Kid
Mambo, who won a maiden at Sandown in September, could do no better than third
in the Lingfield Derby Trial this season. Martin Dwyer who partnered Sir Percy to
victory 12 months ago, will ride the Michael Bell-trained Regime, with
Jamie Spencer sidelined due to suspension. The Golan colt won a maiden at
Beverley last term and was runner-up to Miss Beatrix in the Goffs Million at the
Curragh. He subsequently finished down the field behind Authorized in the Racing
Post Trophy. Nevertheless, he ran out a good winner of the Sandown Classic Trial
on his reappearance this season from Peter Chapple-Hyam’s Striving Storm. He
has more than the required stamina for this, but needs to show some improvement
to figure. Aqaleem Strategic
Prince
finished eighth in the 2,000 Guineas on his only appearance this season, but won
three of his five starts last term, two of them at Group 2 level (at Newmarket
and Goodwood). Trained by Paul Cole for Sultan Ahmad Shah, the colt finished
third to Teofilo and Holy Roman Emperor in the Dewhurst, on softer than ideal
going for him. The Dosage system indicates a best trip of around 10 furlongs and
he may be found a little wanting for stamina in this. He also looks unlikely to
get his required fast surface. The maiden Leander makes up the
numbers. In terms of stamina the Kalanisi colt, out of a Slip Anchor mare, ought
to stay, but is unlikely to be good enough to play a leading part and will
hopefully not impede those with real chances. His best work has been seen in the
closing stages in his two public appearances to date, but the Brett Johnson
charge is likely to be hopelessly outclassed here. Speed/stamina
balance The average DI for the past ten winners is 1.33, but those slightly below this figure down to around 1.00 (or less) appear best suited to the stamina requirements of the race (see table).
* Adjusted for the
inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm) Benny
The Dip is the only horse with a DI of above 1.86 to have won the Derby in the
past decade (but
many consider the short-head runner-up Silver Patriarch, with a perfect profile
of DI 1.00, CD 0.03,
to have been desperately unlucky). The
winners who match our requirement over same period are: Sir Percy (0.54),
Motivator (1.43), North Light (1.13), Kris Kin (1.05), High Chaparral (0.82),
Galileo (1.11) and High-Rise (0.82). Shortlist Those
with realistic chances who best fit our criteria this year are: Mahler,
Authorized, Arabian Gulf, Aqaleem,
Eagle Mountain and
Lucarno. I also have a sneaking regard for the form of Soldier Of Fortune,
who will certainly get the trip. Of these Authorized is taken to prevail.
Aqaleem could prove next best with the Ballydoyle contingent, Lucarno
and Arabian Gulf left to fight over the remaining place in the frame. Verdict: More
on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found on www.chef-de-race.com
and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell
Meerdink Company, Ltd. |