2007 St. Leger Preview
 by Steve Miller

The following article by Steve Miller has recently been published in RACEFORM UPDATE in the UK.  It is presented here with the permission of the author.

Honolulu makes a rattling good alternative to his stablemate Soldier Of Fortune, who sets the standard for this year’s St Leger but looks unlikely to line up

Splash out on Honolulu

THE DOSAGE system comes into its own when analysing Group races that require a test of stamina. It also gives us a decisive edge when there is scant form at the distance to go on and in situations where those taking part are still largely unknown quantities. In fact there are few, if any, races in which the system is of more help to us than the St Leger.

Winning criteria
The average Dosage index (DI) for the past 13 winners of the oldest classic is 1.07, with the ‘right types’ for the race having a DI of about 1.00 or less (the lower the DI the more stamina aptitude). Of the past 13 winners the overwhelming majority satisfy this requirement – they comprise: Sixties Icon (DI 1.00), Scorpion (1.00), Brian Boru (1.05), Bollin Eric (1.00), Milan (0.77), Millenary (0.83), Mutafaweq (1.07), Nedawi (0.92), Silver Patriarch (1.00), Classic Cliché (0.83) and Moonax (0.73). Of these the system identifies Milan, Millenary, Nedawi, Classic Cliché and Moonax as those with the greatest stamina aptitude (all with DIs of below 1.00). On top of the DI requirement Milan and Moonax also had negative centres of distribution (CD), with Classic Cliché on exactly zero.

Although Rule Of Law defied these guidelines in 2004 with a DI of 2.11 and a CD of +0.71, the winner will typically have a DI up to about 1, rather than above it, and a CD that tends to the negative (in years in which there are such examples – e.g. Milan and Moonax). This year there is a handful in the race with negative CDs, indicating that the right types should indeed make the line up.

The accompanying table shows the 12 that have been left in the race at Monday’s confirmation stage, including the supplemented Regal Flush, arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage index.

2007 St Leger possible runners

* Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)

Proven at trip
The trip will pose no problem for Mahler, by Galileo out of a Rainbow Quest (classic/solid chef-de-race) mare, as he proved when slamming Veracity in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot. Mahler was beaten in better company when dropped back in trip in the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes next time out, but was staying on in fifth behind Lucarno and his stablemates Yellowstone, Macarthur and Acapulco, after being headed in that. The colt will be better for stepping back up in trip, but has a bit to find with some of the others here and he finished down the field in the Derby. The colt is one of six trained by Aidan O’Brien that are still in the race and one of four of the six nominated as the most likely to take part, along with Honolulu, Macarthur and Acapulco.

Acapulco, by Galileo out of a Darshaan mare, like Mahler will relish a test of stamina, although he has not yet been tried at beyond 12 furlongs. He split Salford Mill and Eastern Anthem in the Listed Newmarket Stakes at the beginning of May and finished a far from disgraced ninth in the Derby, finishing ahead of Mahler there as he did at York. He is still relatively unexposed and has place chances.

Veracity looks set to take his chance and ran a fine race to finish a half-length runner-up to Sir Michael Stoute’s four-year-old Allegretto in the Goodwood Cup. That represents a step up from his second to Mahler in the Queen’s Vase and puts him in with a chance here. His negative CD suggests that the distance is not an issue and the Lomitas colt has strong claims on a place.

Gosden
The John Gosden-trained Dynaformer colt Lucarno has had a busy season, winning three of his seven starts, finishing runner-up in two others, and running fourth in the Derby. He fully deserves his Group 2 success, but is still a little behind an average St Leger winner in terms of ability, although it would not be a surprise if he were to improve again. There are others here that appear better suited to stepping up in trip, however.

Gosden also trains Raincoat who is bred on similar lines to Mahler, both being by Sadler’s Wells stallions out of Rainbow Quest mares. Raincoat finished down the field behind Lawman in the Prix du Jockey Club, but has otherwise run very respectably this term – his best run arguably in defeat when runner-up to Authorized in the Dante. Of the Gosden pair Lucarno has the higher level of form, but Raincoat may well possess superior stamina.

Arc bound?
Soldier Of Fortune (like Mahler, Acapulco and Celestial Halo, by Galileo) sets the standard for ability in this. He finished a respectable fifth to Authorized in the Derby before running away with the Irish equivalent by nine lengths from his stablemates Alexander Of Hales and Eagle Mountain (the runner-up at Epsom). Not seen out since, but he heads our table with 10 stamina points in his profile, a DI of 0.57 and a negative CD. He would take the beating here if connections gave him the nod, given that he has both the best form and greatest stamina potential, according to his Dosage reading. However, he is targeted for the Arc trials and although appearing to have a straightforward chance in the St Leger he needs to be in it to win it.

Derby-third Aqaleem got the better of Soldier Of Fortune at Epsom and subsequently split Yellowstone and Raincoat in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood. However, he met with a setback in training, reportedly pulling a muscle in his hindquarters during routine work, and will miss the race.

Macarthur has not managed to get back in front this term after winning his two-year-old maiden, but his most recent performance behind Lucarno was also his best. Despite a DI of 1.43 he has four stamina points in his profile and should not be ruled out on his latest effort.

Screamer
Honolulu ran a screamer to finish runner-up in the Ebor, off 111, especially so for a three-year-old. As the colt is by Montjeu out of a Darshaan mare, with a negative CD, the trip was never going to be an issue. He looks to be up with the class of previous winners of this race and should take advantage of the likely absence of his stablemate Soldier Of Fortune.

Song Of Hiawatha won at the beginning of June at Navan from his better-fancied stablemate Red Rock Canyon, but finished last in the Juddmonte International, won by Authorized, after making the running for Dylan Thomas and Duke Of Marmalade.

Celestial Halo gave Speed Gifted two pounds for a two-length defeat when improving at the trip in the Melrose. The Galileo colt may prove to have superior stamina to his York conqueror and could improve again here.

John Dunlop’s Samuel finished runner up to Tungsten Strike in the March Stakes at Goodwood on his latest start, but it is hard to see this maiden winning a classic after four placed outings this term.

Sir Michael Stoute has supplemented Regal Flush for Saturday’s big race at a cost of £40,000. The Cheveley Park Stud-owned Sakhee colt won the Old Borough Cup over 14 furlongs at Haydock last weekend on the back of a handicap win at Goodwood at the beginning of August. Despite five stamina points in his Dosage profile it looks a big ask for him to step up to this company.

Speed/stamina balance
If the optimum blend of speed and stamina for the Derby is expressed as a Dosage index (DI) of 1.00 and a centre of distribution (CD) of zero, we are ideally looking for a DI of less than 1 and a negative CD for the St Leger. The average DI for the past 13 winners is just over 1, with the ideal type for the race a little below this.

Dosage of previous St Leger winners

AVERAGE DOSAGE INDEX = 1.07

* Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)

Shortlist
We arrive at the following shortlist of those with the required stamina for this year’s race: Soldier Of Fortune (DI 0.57), Veracity (0.58), Honolulu (0.60), Celestial Halo (0.65), Acapulco (0.69), Mahler (0.83), Raincoat (0.86) and Samuel (1.07). In addition to these Lucarno and Macarthur look worth their places despite having slightly higher DIs than typical to win this particular race.

Honolulu is the clear pick of those looking likely to take part with Veracity’s Goodwood Cup effort promoting him to the main danger. The remainder of the O’Brien team and Gosden’s pair can fight out the remaining place.

Verdict: