2007 Kentucky Derby Preview:

Note: The first section of this article is the standard introduction to our pace-based approach to analyzing the Kentucky Derby.  Those familiar with the methodology may wish to either review it or proceed directly to this year's analysis here. 

It is often said, “pace makes the race”.  We are all familiar with the phrase, but I dare say few of us have a firm grasp on what it means in a practical sense.  The folks at Trackmaster define pace as the tempo or rhythm of a race, which is as good a definition as any.  They further suggest, “pace is important primarily as it effects the overall energy pattern of a race horse”.  Accepting that description creates opportunities for measurement and quantification.  In other words, if a horse’s energy pattern, perhaps better described as its energy distribution throughout the course of a race, is critical to the race’s outcome, then measuring that energy distribution could provide significant insight into the details of the horse’s performance.  Once we understand the subtleties of how a horse typically or better yet, most efficiently, distributes its energy in a race we can hopefully apply our understanding to the demands of another race.  This is an approach we have used for several years to assess the potential of Kentucky Derby contenders.  By analyzing the pace characteristics of the Derby starters in their prep races, we can compare the results to those found for previous Derby winners in their prep races.  Some will fit the successful historical patterns while others won’t.  

Our methodology is multifaceted.  First, we use linear regression (involving fractional times and lengths behind) to generate the slope and intercept of the best straight line that models the individual performance.  Slope is a measure of fatigue.  The higher the slope, the longer the time required to negotiate an additional distance.  Slopes will generally fall between 0.9 (slow early-fast late) and 1.2 (fast early-slow late). Intercept is a measure of early speed and is inversely related to the slope.  In this case, the lower the intercept, the greater the relative early speed.  Intercepts also will usually fall between 0.9 (fast early) and 1.2 (slow early). Correlation Coefficient is a measure of how efficiently a horse's speed is expressed throughout the whole race.  Perfect efficiency is equal to a Correlation Coefficient of 1.00000.  Any value below 1.00000 represents less than ideal efficiency, although it is almost always greater than 0.99900.  The very best horses continually display Correlation Coefficients above 0.99990 while lower quality horses may not display Correlation Coefficients that high. We can subsequently use the slope and the intercept for a race to calculate a predicted time at any distance.  These times include a projected ten-furlong time (10f), a projected turn time in a ten-furlong race (10fTT, the time to negotiate the distance between the six furlong and eight furlong markers) and a projected last quarter-mile time in a ten-furlong race (10fLQ).  

Next, we calculate Sartin Methodology-based Brohamer pace numbers ("Modern Pace Handicapping", by Tom Brohamer, William Morrow and Company, Inc,. New York, 1991) for the same races.  Evaluating only route races these are limited to a 3Fr (Final Fraction) number which is the speed in feet-per-second from the six furlong call to the finish and a %E (Percent Early) number which is a relative measure of energy used through the six-furlong call.  Speed types display %E figures significantly higher than off-the-pace types, although the absolute numbers are greatly affected by the distance of a race.  We emphasize 3Fr and %E from among the various available Brohamer figures because these are directly related to a horse’s ability to conserve energy and to finish its races with something left in reserve.

The other Brohamer figures include EP (Early Pace), the velocity in feet-per-second to the six-furlong call; SP (Sustained Pace), the average of Early Pace and the Final Fraction, thus relating a horse's speed to the six-furlong call and his ability to finish; AP (Average Pace), the average of EP and SP; 1Fr (First Fraction) and 2Fr (Second Fraction), the average velocities in feet-per-second between each of the first two calls (start to four furlongs and four furlongs to six furlongs); and TE (Total Energy), the sum of EP and 3Fr (the total available energy based on current conditions of distance, surface and track as well as inherent ability).

Finally, we use Performance Figures (PFs), based on the same linear regression technology described earlier, as a measure of the absolute quality of the races being analyzed. 

The detailed pace figures for this year’s leading Derby contenders are here. 

For reference, guideline numbers (all times are in seconds; e.g., 122.34 = 2:02.34) for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Spectacular Bid and Triple Crown winners Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed are:  
 

Dirt routes (Before Synthetic): Running to type, the two-turn races here were pro-early speed.

Dirt routes (Synthetic ): Ugly, truly ugly.  Farewell to the universal track bias, hello to the scourge of SynthSurface.  Frontrunners who won were either lucky or extraordinary.  Late moves were almost always a prerequisite for a two-turn win...

Those wishing to still use the Blue Grass Stakes data are, of course, free to do so.  However, be advised that there is no other dirt course at any major racing venue in North America that comes even close to Keeneland's current late speed bias.
  

If history is a guide, and if recent trends continue, then Circular Quay (PF -65), Street Sense (PF -60), Any Given Saturday (PF-60) and Nobiz Like Shobiz (PF -55) are the logical choices.  They are the only contenders to meet the pace parameter and Performance Figure criteria.  Zanjero is very close with PF -54.  Street Sense and Tiago appear in all five categories, Zanjero in four.  Mr. Bob Laudicina has recently observed that every Derby winner between 1998 and 2006 (with the exceptions of Giacomo and Barbaro) was among the top five in the 3Fr category and at least one other.  This is interesting because it dramatically reduces the number of qualifiers.  In 1998, the number of qualifiers drops from six to three.  The changes for the other years are: 1999, five to two; 2000, five to three; 2001, five to three; 2002, three to two; 2003, three to two; 2004, seven to five; 2005, four to one; and 2006, four to one with Sweetnorthernsaint as the only remaining qualifier.  In 2007 the change is from four to one with Street Sense as the only remaining qualifier.  Similarly, Mr. Brad Titus has observed that every Derby winner since 1998 except War Emblem and Barbaro was among the top five in the 10fTT category and at least one other.  Using this restriction, the change in 2007 is from four to three.  On the other hand, further limiting the number of qualifiers runs the risk of eliminating possible exacta and trifecta opportunities.  That said, guidelines are just that, and trends are continually broken.  That's why races are run on the track and not on paper.  

In an unusual turn of events, there are eight Dual Qualifiers among the potential starters, the most in any one Derby since at least 1972.  They include, by EFH ranking, Street Sense (127); Scat Daddy (123); Circular Quay, Great Hunter and Nobiz Like Shobiz (122); Stormello (121); and Any Given Saturday and Liquidity (119).  All four pace parameter/PF qualifiers are Dual Qualifiers.

With regard to the selection of Dual Qualifiers, we had noted in early 1990 in an article published in Owner-Breeder magazine that the EFH was deficient in identifying the elite two-year-olds of the year because of arbitrary rules limiting those horses eligible for ranking.  The issue arose after the Derby wins of Winning Colors and Sunday Silence in 1988 and 1989.  Neither had raced in stakes company at two, but based on the results of head-to-head competition with division leaders, both were clearly among the very best of their generation.  They confirmed their juvenile class by maintaining superior form into their three-year-old campaign.  From these observations arose the idea of the "conceptual" Dual Qualifier, a term reserved for three-year-olds with a Dosage Index (DI) of 4.00 or less and which were among the best juveniles of the previous year but failed to be ranked on the EFH within ten pounds of the top.  Other Derby winners fitting that description include Grindstone, Funny Cide and Smarty Jones.  All were either weighted too low on the EFH or left out entirely because of the rules for inclusion.  Yet each demonstrated elite two-year-old form by other measures.  Since there is nothing sacred about the EFH, and because the whole idea is to locate all of the truly elite two-year-olds, especially those overlooked by the EFH, we have sought additional and complementary methods of identification.  These include Thoroughbred Times Performance Rates; Timeform ratings of American-raced two-year-olds; Racing Post Ratings; BRIS, Equibase and Beyer speed figures; and, of course, our own PFs.  Using this methodology we have found a total of 31 two-year-olds of 2006 which were among the top ten according to the various speed figure and Performance Rate criteria and/or were EFH-ranked or Timeform-Ranked within ten pounds of the division highweight.  This increases the pool from 17 when using the EFH exclusively.  The value of this approach is apparent when we consider that 2006 Derby winner Barabro, which was not within 10 pounds of the division leader on the EFH, was indeed within 10 pounds of the highweight according to Timeform.

Surprisingly, using the expanded Dual Qualifier criteria in 2007 we find only the same eight ranked on the EFH among this year's Derby starters.

The highly-regarded and undefeated Curlin, the likely Derby favorite, does not appear among the leaders by pace parameter or PF.  His situation is similar to Barbaro's last year from the perspective of pace, although Barbaro barely missed the PF guideline and was identified by Timeform as an elite American-raced two-year-old.  Curlin, on the other hand, was unraced at two and enters the Derby with only three lifetime starts.  Although angles are meant to be broken, late development and lack of experience have not played well in Derby history going back a century and more.  It would take a true superstar to overcome the challenge presented by the Grade 1-quality, mature and tested colts he will face.  Other than facile wins against weaker competition, there is nothing to this point that stamps him as an obvious future great.  This year's Derby preps have been weak in comparison with recent years and Curlin may improve and step forward.  Nevertheless, he may not represent much value at the betting window.