2008 Ascot Gold Cup Preview
 by Steve Miller

The following article by Steve Miller has been recently published in RACEFORM UPDATE in the UK.  It is presented here with the permission of the author.

Septimus and Coastal Path represent formidable obstacles to Yeats emulating Sagaro in claiming a third Gold Cup success at Royal Ascot in as many seasons

Septimus and Coastal Path big dangers to Yeats three-timer

THE DOSAGE SYSTEM comes into its own with the Ascot Gold Cup, in which many of those taking part have scant comparable form, other than those that have run in the race before.

While few thoroughbreds truly stay 20 furlongs, if the pace in the Gold Cup is true the horse with the greatest reserves of stamina ought to win, assuming that horse is not run off its legs in the early stages and that relative ability and general fitness are otherwise broadly comparable. The dream combination of a horse with the right sort of profile for such extreme distance that is also Group 1 calibre is relatively rare. Consequently it is common for horses that do make the grade to win the race more than once (Yeats, Royal Rebel and Kayf Tara, in the last decade alone).

Those with either (or both) a Dosage index (DI) of less than 1.00 and a negative centre of distribution (CD), to have won the Gold Cup in the past decade or so are: Yeats twice (7/1 and 8/13), Papineau (5/1), Kayf Tara (twice, 11/1 and 11/8), Enzeli (20/1), Celeric (11/2), Classic Cliché (3/1), Double Trigger (9/4) and Arcadian Heights (20/1).

The Dosage system indicated all of these as the right types. This clearly gives us a huge edge in this particular race – supplying us with a couple of 20/1 winners in Enzeli (DI 0.54, CD -0.45) and Arcadian Heights (DI 0.90, CD -0.05) and 11/1, 7/1, 11/2 and 5/1 winners (all SPs). The likes of Double Trigger (DI 0.21, CD -1.40), although a more prohibitive 9/4, was screaming out to be backed for this, as was Celeric (DI 0.00, CD -1.44), whose entire points total appeared in the stamina wing of his profile (which is extremely rare and demands attention in this race).

Moreover, those that have such profiles seem to run well in this race habitually in spite of what they achieve elsewhere and regardless of odds.

The accompanying table shows 14 of the 15 left in at the five-day confirmation stage for this year’s renewal and is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage Index (DI). Le Miracle, by Monsun out of a Kendor mare, has just two points in his profile and is consequently excluded from our table as the reading is meaningless.

2008 Ascot Gold Cup contenders

The seven-year-old gelding, Le Miracle, has won seven times at 14 to 20 furlongs, the best at Group 1 level in last season’s Prix du Cadran, at the required trip, where he gained revenge with Yeats for his third spot in last season’s Gold Cup. He is effective at this trip but has been comprehensively beaten by Coastal Path in his two appearances this season.

Ballydoyle three

Aidan O’Brien has left three in at the five-day stage but has indicated that Yeats could be Ballydoyle’s sole representative in an attempt to emulate Sagaro, the only triple winner of this race. The Ascot Gold Cup hero of the past two seasons is a classy stayer who is also effective at middle distances. The Sadler’s Wells’ entire has won four Group 1s including a Coronation Cup and an Irish St Leger in addition to his two Gold Cups, and 11 of his 18 career starts. He opened this season’s account with victory in the Listed Vintage Crop Stakes at Navan and in spite of his advancing years is again a plausible favourite for this year’s stamina test.

After winning at Group level at the Curragh last term Septimus went on to finish a creditable runner-up to his stablemate Scorpion in the Coronation Cup before running out the season with two Group 2 victories in the Lonsdale Cup where he beat Balkan Knight and the Doncaster Cup, where he trounced that same rival together with Geordieland, Allegretto, Distinction, Finalmente and Baddam. He is yet to make his reappearance this season but is already proven as a high-class stayer. With 11 points in the stamina wing of his profile the five-year-old can steal the thunder from his hat-trick seeking stablemate, if he is allowed to take his chance.

Honolulu appears at the head of our table, being by Montjeu out of a Darshaan mare. Fourth in the Yorkshire Cup this season behind Geordieland and placed in the St Leger and Ebor last term the colt will not fail for stamina, but it is a testament to the quality of Yeats and Septimus that he appears to be no more than an understudy for this from a yard with an apparent embarrassment of staying talent. Honolulu and Septimus have entries in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes on Saturday (although Ballydoyle’s Ormonde Stakes winner Macarthur is primarily being aimed at that) and, according to O’Brien, Honolulu is also a possible for the Queen Alexandra Stakes.

Before he won the Yorkshire Cup at 14 furlongs at the beginning of this season Geordieland had not won beyond 12 furlongs in 29 appearances, although he has finished runner-up in some notable distance races, including this last season. He is clearly best at distances beyond 12 furlongs despite winning five times at up to 12 furlongs and only once beyond it.

There is no doubt that Baddam is made for the Gold Cup trip, pulling off the notable double of the Ascot Stakes and Queen Alexandra Stakes at the Royal meeting in 2006 when trained by Mick Channon. He has failed to get back in front in 16 subsequent starts, but was runner-up to Tungsten Strike in the Sagaro Stakes and Enjoy The Moment in last season’s Queen Alexandra Stakes. He clearly thrives at Ascot and is another who will not fail for stamina. He would, however, need to improve markedly on his seventh place in this last year to figure and has looked a shadow of his former self in three appearances this season.

Diamond Quest’s Dosage reading indicates middle-distance stamina and an optimum trip of 12 furlongs-plus. Nevertheless, he won the 2006 Canon Gold Cup handicap at two miles at Greyville racecourse in Durban, South Africa, on the only occasion he has been tried at the trip. Now with Andrew Balding the Saumarez gelding was outclassed in last season’s Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes at the Royal meeting and would have a bit to find here.

Thundering Star is the other Canon Gold Cup winner in the line-up, taking last year’s renewal. However, the Fort Wood entire finished down the field behind Coastal Path at Longchamp and Finalmente at Sandown this season. While the trip does not look a concern the Mike De Kock-charge could struggle for class in this company.

Finalmente finished fourth to Yeats in this last year at odds of 66/1 and booked his place in this year’s line up by winning the Group 2 Henry II Stakes at Sandown over an extended two miles for his handler Simon Callaghan from Balkan Knight and Royal And Regal. He was also placed behind Allegretto and Veracity in last season’s Goodwood Cup.

Team Elsworth

The eight-year-old Balkan Knight has been a grand servant for his handlers (currently David Elsworth). He finished runner-up to Royal And Regal in the Jockey Club Cup at Newmarket at the end of last term and just failed to get the better of Finalmente in a thrilling finish in the Henry II Stakes this term. The Selkirk gelding seems as good as ever and is fully entitled to line up alongside these.

Elsworth’s other possible Silver Suitor, the winner of a Newmarket maiden at three last season, was placed in a Newmarket handicap over a mile-and-a-half this term before stepping up in trip at Ascot to score in a two mile handicap. The Jeff Smith-owned grey gelding has been saddled with the additional burden of hope as the new Persian Punch.

Godolphin

Sagara, now with Godolphin, has only won once in eight starts but has been placed in Group company, notably when third in Dylan Thomas’s Arc. The Sadler’s Wells gelding has not raced beyond middle distances and may prove most effective at around 12-14 furlongs.

Regal Flush was placed in Listed company behind John Dunlop’s Samuel at York at the end of May. Previously he had received a 10-length drubbing by Henry Cecil’s Tranquil Tiger in a 13½ furlong Listed race at Newbury.

Veracity had appeared at the head of our table, indicating almost bottomless stamina. The Lomitas colt filled runner-up spots at Group level behind Mahler in the Queen’s Vase and Allegretto in the Goodwood Cup last term and ended his season stepping back in trip to finish fifth in the St Leger. Moved from Michael Jarvis to Saeed Bin Suroor this season, the four-year-old deserved a place in the line up as one virtually certain to improve again at this trip. Unfortunately he has been taken out of the race at the five-day confirmation stage.

Sir Michael Stoute’s Allegretto took the Group 1 Prix Royal-Oak at the end of last season. She also won the Goodwood Cup, seeing off the likes of Veracity, Finalmente, Balkan Knight and Geordieland. The Galileo mare was also runner-up to Peeping Fawn in the Yorkshire Oaks and placed behind Septimus in the Doncaster Cup. On grounds of stamina and class she holds definite chances but was disappointing when last of eight in the Henry II Stakes at Sandown behind Finalmente this term. It is no doubt best to forgive her that performance on her seasonal reappearance and if springing back to form she could prove a threat.

Fabre challenge

The unbeaten Coastal Path represents a formidable challenge from France. Andre Fabre’s four-year-old has chalked up a sequence of four Group wins at Longchamp the latest of which were achieved at two miles this season. The Halling colt is out of a Sadler’s Wells’ mare giving him a negative CD, which suggests that he will come into his own at this trip. He remains on the upgrade and a significant threat. Noble Prince, trained by Fabre for Michael Tabor, has been scratched from the race.

Negative centre of distribution

If a Dosage index of 1.0 and a centre of distribution of zero is the blueprint for a Derby contender, for a potential Ascot Gold Cup winner we are looking for a DI of less than 1.0 and ideally a negative CD. Recent winners of the race conforming to this ideal are: Papineau (DI 0.88, CD -0.04), Enzeli (0.54, -0.45), Celeric (0.00, -1.44), Double Trigger (0.21, -1.40) and Arcadian Heights (0.90, -0.05) – while Yeats (0.89, +0.08), dual winner Kayf Tara (0.90, +0.08) and Classic Cliché (0.84, 0.00) qualify in terms of DI and are very close to qualifying in respect of the CD.

This is all the more striking when we consider that negative CD horses are far less common than those with positive CDs, which explains why horses are able to win the Gold Cup in years when there is no particular good example of this type of horse.

Dosage of previous winners

Shortlist

At the five-day confirmation stage our shortlist of those with a DI of less than 1.0 comprises: Honolulu (0.60), Coastal Path (0.70), Thundering Star (0.71), Allegretto (0.78), Yeats (0.89), Baddam (0.91) and Septimus (0.96). Moreover Honolulu, Coastal Path and Baddam also have negative CDs, marking them out for extreme stamina potential. Of these we can strike out Thundering Star and Baddam, who look out of their depth, and Honolulu, who almost certainly will take up another engagement.

It’s a real wrench to go against Yeats, who I have successfully supported in the past two renewals of this, but I’m going for the younger legs of Septimus (should he run here rather than elsewhere) and Coastal Path to get the better of him. They both look to be staying champions in the making.

Verdict
     1) Septimus
     2) Coastal Path
     3) Yeats
     4) Allegretto
     5) Gordieland

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found on www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.

THE DOSAGE SYSTEM is a key tool in the assessment of the distance potential of racehorses, based on certain sires (only those that demonstrate prepotent influence) in the first four generations of the subject individual’s pedigree. It is especially useful when form information is either scant or absent. It also helps in identifying if a racehorse is being campaigned over a less effective distance than it is ideally suited.

Three statistics are generated by the Dosage system: a Dosage Profile (DP), a Dosage Index (DI) and a Centre of Distribution (CD).