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2008 Pre-Derby Analysis Back to the Derby Starters page Adriano: Made a dramatic forward move on Turfway's Polytrack in the Lane's End after a terrible effort on the dirt in the Fountain of Youth. Last year he put in a respectable showing on Polytrack at Keeneland in the Breeders' Futurity. At his best he doesn't seem as fast as many others in the field and you have to wonder if he is a synthetic surface specialist. Anak Nakal: Only a cut below the best juveniles of 2007, he is experienced in graded stakes company and his Wood Memorial was very encouraging. Still, his speed figures don't match up well, and despite being a consistent type, he remains a cut below the best three-year-olds of 2008. Big Brown: Undefeated, he is unquestionably the fastest horse in the race by a significant margin. Questions remain about his inexperience, having only three starts. Nevertheless, he has shown he doesn't need the lead and can track a quick pace comfortably. With an average winning margin of almost 10 lengths, it would appear this is one serious colt. His pedigree displays Dominant Classicity and there are plenty of stamina influences within the first four generations. Intensely inbred horses are not statistically favored, but in this case we have 3x3 inbreeding to Derby winner Northern Dancer. Were he 3x3 to Raise a Native, for example, I'd be more concerned. Post position 20 may present a problem, although the colt has enough controlled speed to clear most of the field by the first turn. Big Truck: His sire and broodmare sire don't have a well-established stud record regarding stakes production and except for his Tampa Bay Derby he hasn't shown much. Despite being in the care of a Derby-winning trainer, a win would be a major upset. Bob Black Jack: Although being sprint bred, he has held his own throughout the Derby trail, actually improving with distance. However, the difference between good performance at 9 furlongs and 10 furlongs is huge. Then there is the issue of Santa Anita's synthetic surface vs dirt, and in that regard he is an unknown. Other Santa Anita horses have made the transition well, but until they do, it's pretty much a guess. Despite the colt's obvious quality, I doubt he can step up to the demands of a classic distance on the Churchill Downs surface. Colonel John: Missed being a Dual Qualifier by one pound because of War Pass' 127 pound (one pound above standard) assignment on the Experimental Free Handicap. He seems ideally-suited in terms of running style and, unlike many others, he hasn't faltered at all on the way to the Derby. As with Bob Black Jack, we have the same potential issue of synthetic surface vs dirt, and his speed figures by most measures seem a bit slow. He is, however, working extremely well over the Churchill Downs surface. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt that he can improve at classic distances, something most horses won't do. Cool Coal Man: Hard to figure this one. He had a terrific performance in the Fountain of Youth and a nice win in allowance company sandwiched between two clunkers in graded stakes. If he runs to his best he could finish in the top half, but a win would be a surprise despite the Zito connection. Court Vision: I'm looking for a good effort from Dual Qualifier Court Vision. He has matured well and shown excellent development since winning the Remsen last November, with progressively improved performances in the Fountain of Youth and the Wood Memorial. Distance should not be a problem against this group and he has a prior good race over the Churchill Downs surface. His connections are first rate. Cowboy Cal: He was a very good two-year-old but he has never been in the money on a dirt surface. I think that's too much to overcome considering his overall speed figures are second level. He has classic distance breeding and great connections, so he can't be ignored. It's hard to know how to deal with him, although including him in some exotics could pay off. Denis of Cork: Outstanding in the Southwest Stakes and very disappointing in the Illinois Derby. A return to earlier form puts him right there and he has the breeding, but I'll bet against it even with Derby-winning rider Borel in the irons. Eight Belles: A consistent and high class filly, but possibly over her head here. Previous Derby-winning fillies Winning Colors and Genuine Risk both ran super races against colts at 9 furlongs in their final Derby preps. Not so in this case with a narrow win against fillies at 8 1/2 furlongs. On the other hand, her pace figures set up well in this field and it wouldn't surprise me if she was among the leaders at the end. Gayego: You can pretty much toss out the idea of breeding as a Derby factor if this son of Gilded Time out of a Lost Code mare wins. No runner by Gilded Time or out of a mare by Lost Code (other than Gayego himself) has ever won a major stakes race beyond a mile and a sixteenth. That said, Gayego, although bred as a pure sprinter, is a very talented colt, racing well on both synthetic and dirt surfaces, although not finishing as strongly on the latter. I think he's definitely in the mix but will weaken late, by how much I can only guess. I'd be reluctant to eliminate him from exotics. Monba: A very good two-year-old in 2007 and with impeccable connections. Except for a clunker in the Fountain of Youth he has been very consistent from the beginning and has a mile allowance win over the Churchill Downs surface. He may not be quite as fast over a route of ground as some of his rivals, however, and his best efforts have come on synthetic surfaces. Pyro: A Dual Qualifier and certainly one of the very best juveniles of 2007. His Blue Grass Stakes was a disaster, although it was his only lifetime start on a synthetic surface. I can't say for sure that was the reason for his failure, but considering how good and how consistent he had been throughout his young career, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. He hasn't run quite as fast as he did as a two-year-old, but if he returns to top form he can win, especially with a pedigree and running style ideally suited to the Derby. Broke his maiden at Churchill Downs. Recapturetheglory: He seems ill-bred for a classic distance and I think his only chance is to achieve an uncontested lead in the manner of War Emblem. I don't see that as likely considering the presence of speed horses like Big Brown, Bob Black Jack and Cowboy Cal. His post position 18 should preclude getting an easy lead. Smooth Air: Consistently fast, this colt has displayed ability beyond what is suggested by his pedigree. He's never been out of the money, he's always in the game and he never quits. I like him as an individual very much. That said, his breeding for distance may be marginal and I'm not sure his connections are up to the task. He is, nevertheless, a sentimental favorite and could surprise on talent alone. Take of Ekati: The third and last Dual Qualifier in the field. Although having lost a couple of races by big margins, he has never thrown in a terrible effort in terms of speed figures. At his best he is as good as any. Whether a Tale of the Cat colt can win at a classic distance remains an issue. There are no examples, although his Lion Heart did run a courageous second to Smarty Jones in the 2004 Derby. I think Tale of Ekati is definitely a contender and should be considered at least for the exotics. Visionaire: A nice, but not inspiring colt whose best distance is probably less than a mile and a quarter. I believe it would take a lifetime best effort by far to get him into contention at the finish. Z Fortune: A solid and consistent contender with a mid-pack style well-suited to the Derby. His breeding for classic distances is suspect, but that's becoming more common among Derby contenders in recent years. It's difficult to fault a colt which has been competitive all spring (with a minor glitch in the Rebel Stakes possibly due to being much further behind in the early stages than usual) and which made a solid forward move in his last prep race at nine furlongs. He may not win, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was close. Z Humor: Another very good two-year-old of 2007 which has held his form well at three. He's never run a really awful race against graded stakes horses and he is well-traveled, having run in graded races at five different tracks. He's the kind of horse you'd like to own, but maybe not to win the Derby with. TOP CONTENDERS: OTHERS TO CONSIDER: If Big Brown is severely compromised at the start by post position I would discount his chances to hit the board. The fate of the other top contenders will depend on their individual trip, although I expect Colonel John will be closer early than the others and should have less traffic to overcome. Other than Big Brown, the speed in this race seems suspect, and if he is not prominent from the outset I think one of the mid-pack closers will have the best chance. Revised May 2, 2008 |