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2008 Kentucky Derby Starters

Below are the 2008 Kentucky Derby starters in post position order with their lifetime PFs in graded stakes and their pace parameters in 2008 races at a mile or more on dirt or a synthetic surface (plus the top five contenders in each pace parameter category).  Horses listed in red are Dual Qualifiers.  Those listed in maroon have been identified as additional elite juveniles of 2007 from sources other than the Experimental Free Handicap.

Data are current through April 30.  A Pre-Derby analysis is available here.
  
PP       CONTENDER   EFH    SIRE AWD   DIRT   %C     SIRE LINE  DAM'S SIRE AWD   DIRT   %C     DAM'S SIRE LINE  BLOODLINES      DP     DI     CD    RIDER TRAINER   OWNER
1     CoOL COAL MAN     MINESHAFT 8.50 * 8.50 * 0.0   BOLD RULER RUBIANO 7.95   8.09   5.0   RAISE A NATIVE P/P   10 - 8 - 15 - 1 - 0   3.00   0.79   LEPAROUX ZITO LAPENTA
2     TaLe of Ekati 118   TALE OF THE CAT 7.34   7.41   0.0   NORTHERN DANCER SUNDAY SILENCE 8.00 * 8.00 * 0.0   TURN-TO P/P   9 - 1 - 12 - 2 - 0   2.00   0.71   COA TAGG FIPKE
3     Anak Nakal 113   VICTORY GALLOP   8.21   8.14   0.0   RAISE A NATIVE QUIET AMERICAN 7.95   7.90   12.5   RAISE A NATIVE P/P   5 - 7 - 8 - 0 - 0   4.00   0.85   BEJARANO ZITO FOUR ROSES THOROUGHBREDS
4     Court Vision 119   GULCH 7.95   7.87   6.1   RAISE A NATIVE STORM BIRD 8.08   7.84   6.4   NORTHERN DANCER P/P   11 - 5 - 12 - 0 - 0   3.67   0.96   GOMEZ MOTT WINSTAR FARM LLC & IEAH STABLES
5     EIGHT BELLES (f)     UNBRIDLED'S SONG 7.93   8.03   4.5   RAISE A NATIVE DIXIELAND BAND 7.77   7.76   7.2   NORTHERN DANCER P/P   7 - 4 - 11 - 0 - 2   2.20   0.58   SAEZ JONES FOX HILL FARMS INC
6     Z FORTUNE     SIPHON (BRZ) 7.80   7.56   10.0   PRINCE ROSE FORTUNATE PROSPECT   7.71   7.50   5.3   RAISE A NATIVE NP/P   1 - 0 - 3 - 0 - 0   1.67   0.50   ALBARADO ASMUSSEN ZAYAT STABLES LLC
7     BIG TRUCK 102   HOOK AND LADDER  8.50 * 8.50 * 0.0   NORTHERN DANCER    GO FOR GIN 8.50 * 8.50 * 0.0   RIBOT P/NP   5 - 0 - 11 - 1 - 1   1.40   0.39   CASTELLANO TAGG FEIN
8     VISIONAIRE     GRAND SLAM 7.22   7.25   0.0   RAISE A NATIVE FRENCH DEPUTY 7.13   7.13   0.0   NORTHERN DANCER P/P   6 - 1 - 5 - 0 - 0   3.80   1.08   LEZCANO MATZ TEAM VALOR INTERNATIONAL & VISION RACING LLC
9     Pyro 120   PULPIT 8.40   8.47   6.1   BOLD RULER WILD AGAIN 8.14   8.02   6.5   NEARCTIC P/P   8 - 7 - 11 - 0 - 0   3.73   0.88   BRIDGMOHAN     ASMUSSEN     WINCHELL THOROUGHBREDS LLC
10     CoLONEL JOHN 116   TIZNOW 8.24   8.05   0.0   IN REALITY TURKOMAN 9.18   9.33   12.9   RAISE A NATIVE NP/P   4 - 1 - 9 - 0 - 0   2.11   0.64   NAKATANI HARTY WINSTAR FARM LLC
11     Z Humor     DISTORTED HUMOR  8.27   8.07   17.3   RAISE A NATIVE A.P. INDY 8.63   8.44   7.0   BOLD RULER P/P   7 - 7 - 13 - 0 - 1   2.73   0.68   DOUGLAS  MOTT ZAYAT STABLES LLC
12     SMOOTH AIR     SMOOTH JAZZ 7.00 * 7.00 * 0.0   NORTHERN DANCER FRENCH DEPUTY 7.13   7.13   0.0   NORTHERN DANCER P/P   4 - 0 - 4 - 0 - 0   3.00   1.00   CRUZ STUTTS JR. MOUNT JOY STABLES INC.
13     BOB BLACK JACK 103   STORMY JACK             IN REALITY NATIVE PROSPECTOR 8.10   8.10   0.0   RAISE A NATIVE NP/P   5 - 0 - 3 - 0 - 0   4.33   1.25   MIGLIORE KASPAROFF HARMON & KASPAROFF
14     MONBA 113   MARIA'S MON 8.13   8.00   7.1   RAISE A NATIVE EASY GOER 8.97   8.89   15.0   RAISE A NATIVE P/P   3 - 3 - 12 - 0 - 0   2.00   0.50   DOMINGUEZ PLETCHER STARLIGHT STABLE, LUCARELLI & SAYLOR
15     ADRIANO     A.P. INDY 8.71   8.68   14.9   BOLD RULER MR. PROSPECTOR  7.99   7.81   5.9   RAISE A NATIVE P/P   13 - 13 - 24 - 0 - 0   3.17   0.78   PRADO MOTION COURTLANDT FARMS
16     DENIS OF CORK     HARLAN'S HOLIDAY 7.10   7.10   0.0   NORTHERN DANCER UNBRIDLED 7.79   7.88   7.7   RAISE A NATIVE P/P   3 - 3 - 6 - 0 - 2   1.80   0.36   BOREL CARROLL WARREN JR. & WARREN JR.
17     CoWBOY CAL 109   GIANT'S CAUSEWAY   8.81   8.69   12.5   NORTHERN DANCER SEEKING THE GOLD 8.33   8.05   11.3   RAISE A NATIVE P/P   7 - 1 - 10 - 0 - 0   2.60   0.83   VELAZQUEZ PLETCHER STONERSIDE STABLE
18     ReCAPTURETHEGLORY        CHEROKEE RUN   7.55   7.48   0.0   BLUSHING GROOM   DEHERE 7.73   7.54   0.0   NORTHERN DANCER P/P   6 - 2 - 4 - 0 - 0   5.00   1.17   BAIRD ROUSSEL III ROUSSEL III & LAMARQUE
19     GAYEGO     GILDED TIME 6.76   6.85   0.0   DAMASCUS LOST CODE 6.32   6.34   0.0   RIBOT NP/NP   5 - 6 - 4 - 1 - 0   4.33   0.94   SMITH LOBO CUBANACAN STABLES
20     BIG BROWN     BOUNDARY 7.40   7.18   0.0   NORTHERN DANCER   NUREYEV 8.44   8.28   7.0   NORTHERN DANCER P/P   4 - 7 - 23 - 2 - 0   1.67   0.36   DESORMEAUX DUTROW JR.    IEAH STABLES & POMPA JR.

Possible Indicators Relevant to Classic Performance:

Dual Qualifiers:
Pyro
Court Vision
Tale of Ekati		 other Elite 2007 juveniles:
Bob Black Jack
Colonel John
Cowboy Cal
Z Humor		 DI>4 Horses:
Bob Black Jack
Gayego
Recapturetheglory
Horses With Dominant Classicity:  
Big Brown
Big Truck
Colonel John
Cowboy Cal
Monba
Z Fortune		 sire/ Broodmare Sire AWDs>=8.00f On Dirt:  
 Big Truck
Colonel John
Cool Coal Man
Cowboy Cal
Monba
Pyro
Z Humor		 PF -55 or Better At Three:
Big Brown (-89)
Smooth Air (-69)
Denis of Cork (-67)
Tale of Ekati (-63)
Gayego (-62)
Z FORTUNE (-59)
COURT VISION (-56)
Top five Pace Parameter Horses
(# Of Categories):
Gayego (6)
Bob Black Jack (5)
Colonel John (5)
Pyro (4)
Visionaire (4)
Big Brown (2)
Eight Belles (2)
Recapturetheglory (2)
Smooth Air (1)
Z Fortune (1)		 horses with <16 dosage points:
bob black jack
colonel john
denis of cork
recapturetheglory
smooth air
Visionaire
z fortune		 no starts or unplaced on dirt:
adriano
bob black jack
colonel john
cowboy cal
Out-of-the-money last start:
anak nakal
big truck
cool coal man
Denis of cork
Pyro
visionaire		 prior good race at churchill downs:
anak nakal
cool coal man
court vision
denis of cork
monba
pyro
recapturetheglory		 derby-winning rider or trainer: 
adriano
big brown
big truck
cool coal man
denis of cork
gayego
tale of ekati
visionaire

PFs:

HORSE PF FIN DATE    RACE GR AGE/SEX TRK DIST SURF TRK COND
Adriano 11 4th 10-06-07 lane's end breeders' futurity g1 2yo kee 8.50 synthetic fst
Adriano 24 9th 02-24-08 Fountain of Youth S G2 3yo GP 9.00 Dirt fst
Adriano -40 1st 03-22-08 Lane's End S G2 3yo TP 9.00 SYNTHETIC fst
Anak Nakal -5 2nd 10-28-07 Nashua S G3 2yo Aqu 8.00 Dirt gd
Anak Nakal -30 1st 11-24-07 Kentucky Jockey Club S G2 2yo CD 8.50 Dirt fst
Anak Nakal 10 8th 02-24-08 fountain of youth s G2 3yo gp 9.00 Dirt fst
Anak Nakal -16 7th 03-15-08 rebel s G2 3yo op 8.50 Dirt fst
Anak Nakal -49 5TH 04-05-08 WOOD MEMORIAL S G1 3YO AQU 9.00 Dirt fst
Big Brown -89 1st 03-29-08 Florida Derby G1 3yo GP 9.00 Dirt fst
Big Truck 11 4th 11-24-07 remsen s g2 2yo aqu 9.00 Dirt fst
Big Truck 9 5th 01-05-08 hutcheson s g2 3yo gp 7.00 Dirt sy
Big Truck -47 1st 03-15-08 Tampa Bay Derby G3 3yo Tam 8.50 Dirt fst
Big Truck 5 11TH 04-12-08 BLUE GRASS S G1 3yo KEE 9.00 SYNTHETIC fst
Bob Black Jack -11 4th 11-22-07 hollywood prevue s g3 2yo hol 7.00 SYNTHETIC fst
Bob Black Jack -25 3rd 03-15-08 San Felipe S G2 3yo SA 8.50 SYNTHETIC fst
Bob Black Jack -43 2nd 04-05-08 Santa Anita Derby G1 3yo SA 9.00 SYNTHETIC fst
Colonel John -34 2nd 12-22-07 Cashcall Futurity G1 2yo Hol 8.50 SYNTHETIC fst
Colonel John -13 1st 03-01-08 Sham S G3 3yo SA 9.00 SYNTHETIC fst
Colonel John -45 1st 04-05-08 Santa Anita Derby G1 3yo SA 9.00 SYNTHETIC fst
Cool Coal Man 4 7th 11-24-07 Kentucky Jockey Club S G2 2yo CD 8.50 Dirt fst
Cool Coal Man -44 1st 02-24-08 Fountain of Youth S G2 3yo GP 9.00 Dirt fst
Cool Coal Man 1 9TH 04-12-08 BLUE GRASS S G1 3yo KEE 9.00 SYNTHETIC fst
Court Vision -21 1st 10-28-07 Iroquois S G3 2yo CD 8.00 Dirt fst
Court Vision -9 1st 11-24-07 Remsen S G2 2yo Aqu 9.00 Dirt fst
Court Vision -17 3rd 02-24-08 Fountain of Youth S G2 3yo GP 9.00 Dirt fst
Court Vision -56 3rd 04-05-08 Wood Memorial S G1 3yo Aqu 9.00 Dirt fst
Cowboy Cal -35 1st 01-01-08 Tropical Park Derby G3 3yo Crc 9.00 Turf fm
Cowboy Cal -41 2ND 04-12-08 BLUE GRASS S G1 3yo KEE 9.00 SYNTHETIC FST
Denis of Cork -67 1st 02-18-08 Southwest S G3 3yo OP 8.00 Dirt fst
DENIS OF CORK -23 5TH 04-05-08 Illinois Derby G2 3yo Haw 9.00 Dirt fst
Eight Belles (f) -21 1st 03-16-08 Honeybee S G3 3yof OP 8.50 Dirt fst
Eight Belles (f) -39 1st 04-06-08 Fantasy S G2 3yof OP 8.50 Dirt fst
Gayego -19 2nd 03-15-08 San Felipe S G2 3yo SA 8.50 SYNTHETIC fst
Gayego -62 1ST 04-12-08 ARKANSAS DERBY G2 3yo OP 9.00 Dirt fst
MONBA -30 4th 12-22-07 Cashcall Futurity G1 2yo Hol 8.50 SYNTHETIC fst
MONBA -42 1ST 04-12-08 BLUE GRASS S G1 3yo KEE 9.00 SYNTHETIC fst
Pyro -48 2nd 10-06-07 Champagne S G1 2yo Bel 8.00 Dirt fst
Pyro -65 2nd 10-27-07 BC Juvenile G1 2yo Mth 8.50 Dirt sy
Pyro -17 1st 02-09-08 Risen Star S G3 3yo FG 8.50 Dirt fst
Pyro -43 1st 03-08-08 Louisiana Derby G2 3yo FG 8.50 Dirt fst
PYRO 4 10TH 04-12-08 BLUE GRASS S G1 3yo KEE 9.00 SYNTHETIC fst
Recapturetheglory -57 1st 04-05-08 Illinois Derby G2 3yo Haw 9.00 Dirt fst
Smooth Air -50 1st 01-05-08 Hutcheson S G2 3yo GP 7.00 Dirt sy
Smooth Air -69 2nd 03-29-08 Florida Derby G1 3yo GP 9.00 Dirt fst
Tale of Ekati -21 2nd 07-26-07 sanford s G2 2yo sar 6.00 Dirt fst
Tale of Ekati -34 1st 09-15-07 Futurity S G2 2yo Bel 7.00 Dirt fst
Tale of Ekati -14 4th 10-27-07 breeders' cup juvenile g1 2yo mth 8.50 Dirt sy
Tale of Ekati -17 6th 03-08-08 Louisiana Derby G2 3yo FG 8.50 Dirt fst
Tale of Ekati -63 1st 04-05-08 Wood Memorial S G1 3yo Aqu 9.00 Dirt fst
Visionaire -6 3rd 02-09-08 Risen Star S G3 3yo FG 8.50 Dirt fst
Visionaire -52 1st 03-08-08 GOTHAM S G3 3YO Aqu 8.50 Dirt sy
VISIONAIRE -17 5TH 04-12-08 BLUE GRASS S G1 3yo KEE 9.00 SYNTHETIC fst
Z Fortune -23 1st 01-12-08 LeComte S G3 3yo FG 8.00 Dirt fst
Z Fortune -9 2nd 02-09-08 Risen Star S G3 3yo FG 8.50 Dirt fst
Z Fortune -26 5th 03-15-08 rebel s G2 3yo op 8.50 Dirt fst
Z Fortune -59 2nd 04-12-08 ARKANSAS DERBY G2 3yo OP 9.00 Dirt fst
Z Humor 14 3rd 09-02-07 Sapling S G3 2yo Mth 6.00 Dirt fst
Z Humor -40 3rd 10-06-07 Champagne S G1 2yo Bel 8.00 Dirt fst
Z Humor -5 5th 10-27-07 breeders' cup juvenile g1 2yo mth 8.50 Dirt sy
Z Humor -27 1st 12-07-07 Boyd's Gaming Delta Jackpot S G3 2yo Ded 8.50 Dirt fst
Z Humor -10 4th 02-24-08 Fountain of Youth S G2 3yo GP 9.00 Dirt fst
Z Humor -38 3rd 04-05-08 Illinois Derby G2 3yo Haw 9.00 Dirt fst

Pace Parameters:

HORSE RACE TRK DATE DIST SLOPE INT CC EP SP AP 1Fr 2Fr 3Fr TE %E 4f 6f 8f 9f 10f Adj10f 10fTT 10fLQ
ADRIANO FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S GP 0224 9.00 1.0360 1.0632 0.99963 54.31 51.67 52.99 54.04 54.83 49.03 103.3 52.57 48.63 74.02 99.72 112.66 125.65 125.65 25.70 25.93
ADRIANO LANE'S END S TP 0322 9.00 1.0404 1.0497 1.00000 54.70 53.54 54.12 55.74 52.75 52.38 107.1 51.07 47.43 72.32 97.55 110.26 123.04 122.24 25.23 25.49
ANAK NAKAL FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S GP 0224 9.00 1.0218 1.0722 0.99973 54.48 52.47 53.48 54.11 55.20 50.45 104.9 51.94 48.68 73.67 98.84 111.48 124.15 124.15 25.17 25.31
ANAK NAKAL REBEL S OP 0315 8.50 1.0632 1.0359 0.99985 54.75 51.79 53.27 55.60 53.17 48.84 103.6 52.85 47.42 72.98 99.10 112.32 125.63 125.23 26.11 26.53
ANAK NAKAL WOOD MEMORIAL S AQU 0405 9.00 1.0509 1.0485 0.99991 54.34 51.99 53.16 55.05 53.05 49.63 104.0 52.25 47.99 73.49 99.43 112.53 125.70 124.70 25.94 26.28
BIG BROWN ALW GP 0305 8.00 1.0734 1.0101 0.99996 56.73 53.95 55.34 58.19 54.06 51.16 107.9 52.58 45.33 70.05 95.40 108.25 121.22 121.22 25.35 25.82
BIG BROWN FLORIDA DERBY GP 0329 9.00 1.0579 1.0233 0.99998 56.57 54.34 55.46 57.64 54.54 52.11 108.7 52.04 45.73 70.22 95.20 107.83 120.54 120.54 24.98 25.35
BIG TRUCK SAM F. DAVIS S TAM 0216 8.50 1.0105 1.0781 1.00000 54.19 53.70 53.94 54.38 53.83 53.21 107.4 50.46 48.58 73.17 97.86 110.23 122.61 121.61 24.69 24.75
BIG TRUCK TAMPA BAY DERBY TAM 0315 8.50 1.0329 1.0556 0.99977 55.29 52.99 54.14 55.27 55.31 50.69 106.0 52.16 47.59 72.34 97.37 109.97 122.61 121.61 25.03 25.24
BIG TRUCK BLUE GRASS S KEE 0412 9.00 0.9964 1.0973 0.99996 53.36 53.01 53.18 52.96 54.16 52.66 106.0 50.34 49.80 74.59 99.36 111.73 124.10 124.10 24.76 24.74
BOB BLACK JACK SAN FELIPE S SA 0315 8.50 0.9910 1.0907 0.99997 54.25 55.08 54.66 54.32 54.09 55.91 110.2 49.23 48.68 72.75 96.75 108.73 120.69 122.09 24.00 23.94
BOB BLACK JACK SANTA ANITA DERBY SA 0405 9.00 1.0115 1.0686 1.00000 55.24 54.82 55.03 55.49 54.75 54.40 109.6 50.40 47.59 71.72 95.94 108.08 120.24 121.64 24.22 24.29
COLONEL JOHN SHAM S SA 0301 9.00 0.9723 1.1137 1.00000 53.37 54.34 53.85 52.80 54.54 55.31 108.7 49.10 50.01 74.17 98.11 110.02 121.89 123.29 23.94 23.77
COLONEL JOHN SANTA ANITA DERBY SA 0405 9.00 0.9949 1.0854 0.99992 54.47 55.25 54.86 54.85 53.71 56.04 110.5 49.29 48.34 72.37 96.35 108.32 120.29 121.69 23.98 23.95
COOL COAL MAN GP ALW GP 0126 9.00 1.0729 1.0198 0.99988 55.81 52.65 54.23 56.82 53.89 49.50 105.3 53.00 46.32 71.56 97.44 110.56 123.80 123.80 25.88 26.36
COOL COAL MAN FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S GP 0224 9.00 1.0262 1.0578 0.99983 55.65 53.73 54.69 55.56 55.83 51.81 107.5 51.77 47.39 71.84 96.51 108.91 121.35 121.35 24.67 24.84
COOL COAL MAN BLUE GRASS S KEE 0412 9.00 1.0091 1.0837 0.99988 53.97 52.84 53.41 53.57 54.79 51.71 105.7 51.06 49.12 73.95 98.86 111.33 123.82 123.82 24.91 24.97
COURT VISION FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S GP 0224 9.00 0.9982 1.0895 0.99982 54.48 53.41 53.95 53.79 55.83 52.33 106.8 51.02 49.03 73.50 97.94 110.16 122.38 122.38 24.45 24.44
COURT VISION WOOD MEMORIAL S AQU 0405 9.00 1.0117 1.0834 0.99970 54.06 52.31 53.18 53.53 55.01 50.55 104.6 51.68 49.27 74.25 99.33 111.90 124.49 123.49 25.08 25.16
COWBOY CAL BLUE GRASS S KEE 0412 9.00 0.9933 1.0916 0.99998 54.25 54.14 54.19 53.88 55.00 54.03 108.3 50.09 48.93 73.20 97.41 109.50 121.58 121.58 24.21 24.17
DENIS OF CORK SOUTHWEST S OP 0218 8.00 1.0014 1.0844 0.99988 54.66 53.44 54.05 54.42 55.07 52.22 106.9 51.13 48.67 73.05 97.44 109.64 121.84 121.44 24.39 24.40
DENIS OF CORK ILLINOIS DERBY HAW 0405 9.00 0.9900 1.0983 0.99993 53.91 53.61 53.76 53.29 55.16 53.31 107.2 50.29 49.47 73.90 98.25 110.40 122.54 122.34 24.35 24.29
EIGHT BELLES (f) HONEYBEE S OP 0316 8.50 0.9957 1.0904 0.99999 54.10 54.01 54.05 53.91 54.47 53.92 108.0 50.09 48.96 73.32 97.64 109.78 121.93 121.53 24.32 24.29
EIGHT BELLES (f) FANTASY S OP 0406 8.50 0.9934 1.0888 0.99997 54.63 54.35 54.49 54.27 55.32 54.08 108.7 50.25 48.62 72.74 96.81 108.82 120.83 120.43 24.06 24.02
GAYEGO SAN FELIPE S SA 0315 8.50 0.9857 1.0948 0.99997 54.25 55.25 54.75 54.22 54.30 56.25 110.5 49.09 48.78 72.74 96.59 108.49 120.36 121.76 23.85 23.76
GAYEGO ARKANSAS DERBY OP 0412 9.00 1.0520 1.0349 0.99995 55.77 53.54 54.66 56.55 54.30 51.30 107.1 52.08 46.58 71.36 96.58 109.32 122.14 121.74 25.22 25.55
MONBA FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S GP 224 9.00 1.0719 1.0382 0.99932 54.24 49.92 52.08 54.31 54.09 45.60 99.8 54.35 48.25 74.52 101.43 115.08 128.84 128.84 26.91 27.41
MONBA BLUE GRASS S KEE 0412 9.00 0.9852 1.0991 0.99998 54.11 54.24 54.17 53.57 55.20 54.37 108.5 49.87 49.23 73.40 97.46 109.45 121.42 121.42 24.05 23.96
PYRO RISEN STAR S FG 0209 8.50 0.9658 1.1244 0.99968 52.18 54.71 53.45 52.28 51.98 57.25 109.4 47.69 50.80 75.15 99.22 111.17 123.08 123.28 24.07 23.86
PYRO LOUISIANA DERBY FG 0308 8.50 1.0067 1.0842 0.99994 53.49 53.91 53.70 54.06 52.42 54.33 107.8 49.62 49.01 73.71 98.46 110.86 123.26 123.46 24.76 24.80
PYRO BLUE GRASS S KEE 0412 9.00 0.9860 1.1071 0.99997 53.15 53.15 53.15 52.55 54.37 53.14 106.3 50.00 50.21 74.88 99.44 111.69 123.92 123.92 24.56 24.47
RECAPTURETHEGLORY ILLINOIS DERBY HAW 0405 9.00 0.9960 1.0870 1.00000 54.40 54.55 54.47 54.32 54.54 54.70 109.1 49.86 48.60 72.79 96.94 109.01 121.07 120.87 24.15 24.13
SMOOTH AIR SAM F. DAVIS S TAM 0216 8.50 1.0123 1.0768 0.99999 54.22 53.55 53.89 54.38 53.93 52.88 107.1 50.63 48.56 73.20 97.94 110.34 122.76 121.76 24.74 24.82
SMOOTH AIR FLORIDA DERBY GP 0329 9.00 1.0400 1.0432 0.99985 56.14 53.86 55.00 56.44 55.57 51.58 107.7 52.13 46.70 71.20 96.03 108.54 121.11 121.11 24.83 25.08
TALE OF EKATI LOUISIANA DERBY FG 0308 8.50 0.9996 1.0947 0.99999 53.22 53.04 53.13 53.18 53.29 52.86 106.1 50.16 49.72 74.56 99.40 111.82 124.24 124.44 24.84 24.84
TALE OF EKATI WOOD MEMORIAL S AQU 0405 9.00 1.0889 1.0105 0.99999 55.11 52.13 53.62 56.96 51.77 49.14 104.3 52.84 46.35 72.07 98.58 112.07 125.69 124.69 26.51 27.11
VISIONAIRE RISEN STAR S FG 0209 8.50 0.9948 1.0987 0.99989 52.75 53.83 53.29 53.14 51.98 54.92 107.7 48.98 49.85 74.62 99.34 111.69 124.03 124.23 24.72 24.69
VISIONAIRE BLUE GRASS S KEE 0412 9.00 0.9586 1.1297 1.00000 52.88 54.00 53.44 51.89 54.89 55.12 108.0 48.96 50.92 75.10 98.95 110.78 122.55 122.55 23.85 23.60
Z FORTUNE LECOMTE S FG 0112 8.00 1.0024 1.0852 0.99995 53.85 54.34 54.09 54.20 53.15 54.84 108.7 49.54 48.83 73.32 97.82 110.08 122.34 122.54 24.51 24.52
Z FORTUNE RISEN STAR S FG 0209 8.50 0.9873 1.1043 0.99997 52.95 53.81 53.38 52.94 52.97 54.67 107.6 49.21 49.97 74.57 99.06 111.28 123.48 123.68 24.49 24.41
Z FORTUNE REBEL S OP 0315 8.50 1.0555 1.0417 0.99989 54.71 52.12 53.42 55.50 53.27 49.53 104.2 52.51 47.55 72.95 98.83 111.91 125.08 124.68 25.88 26.25
Z FORTUNE ARKANSAS DERBY OP 0412 9.00 1.0276 1.0592 0.99998 55.07 53.74 54.40 55.47 54.30 52.40 107.5 51.23 47.62 72.24 97.08 109.57 122.10 121.70 24.85 25.02
Z HUMOR SAM F. DAVIS S TAM 0216 8.50 1.0353 1.0581 0.99997 54.40 52.84 53.62 54.90 53.42 51.28 105.7 51.46 48.02 73.07 98.42 111.18 124.00 123.00 25.35 25.58
Z HUMOR FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S GP 0224 9.00 1.0285 1.0620 0.99975 55.05 52.88 53.96 54.86 55.41 50.71 105.8 52.03 47.99 72.83 97.90 110.51 123.15 123.15 25.07 25.26
Z HUMOR ILLINOIS DERBY HAW 0405 9.00 0.9941 1.0918 0.99997 54.19 53.99 54.09 53.81 54.95 53.80 108.0 50.18 49.02 73.35 97.63 109.76 121.88 121.68 24.28 24.25

Top Five Contenders in Key Pace Parameter Categories:

3Fr TE %E 10f Adj10f 10fTT 10fLQ PF
PYRO COLONEL JOHN PYRO BOB BLACK JACK EIGHT BELLES GAYEGO VISIONAIRE BIG BROWN (-89)
GAYEGO GAYEGO VISIONAIRE COLONEL JOHN BIG BROWN VISIONAIRE GAYEGO SMOOTH AIR (-69)
COLONEL JOHN BOB BLACK JACK GAYEGO GAYEGO RECAPTURETHEGLORY COLONEL JOHN COLONEL JOHN DENIS OF CORK (-67)
BOB BLACK JACK PYRO COLONEL JOHN BIG BROWN SMOOTH AIR BOB BLACK JACK PYRO TALE OF EKATI (-63)
VISIONAIRE RECAPTURETHEGLORY Z FORTUNE EIGHT BELLES COOL COAL MAN MONBA BOB BLACK JACK GAYEGO (-62)
 
Since 1998, the Derby winner has been among the top five 8 times each in 3Fr and TE, 5 times in %E, 6 times in 10f, 7 times each in 10fTT and 10fLQ and 8 times in PF.
 
The pace parameters displayed above are for 2008 prep races at a mile or more on dirt.  In addition to the horse, race, track, date and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 10f race (10fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race (10fLQ).  Following 10f is Adj10f which is the projected 10f time adjusted for the differences in track speed between the track on which the prep race was run and Churchill Downs.  The various pace parameters are described below. 

The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are displayed in the following table.  The Adj10f number is missing because the comparative data is unavailable for the races used in developing the guideline figures.  The significance of Adj10f is left to the reader.  In addition, we have added the leading contenders by Performance Figures (PF) (when first, second or third in a 2008 graded race) to the Top 5 summary.

3Fr TE %E 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
>=51.56 >=107.3 <=52.08 <=122.34 <=24.94 <=25.33

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures.  Races for each horse are listed in chronological order with the latest race last.
 
Pace parameters for the Gotham Stakes (G3) contested on March 8 are unavailable because the positions of the horses at the fractional distances were obscured by the weather conditions.

 
Definition of Pace Terms: 

Slope is a measure of fatigue.  It parallels the increase in time required to negotiate an additional distance.  The higher the number, the steeper the slope, indicating that the fatigue rate is greater.  Slopes will generally fall between 0.9 (slow early-fast late) and 1.2 (fast early-slow late).

Int., or Intercept is a measure of early speed and is inversely related to the slope.  In this case, the lower the intercept, the greater the relative early speed.  Intercepts also will usually fall between 0.9 (fast early) and 1.2 (slow early).

CC, or Correlation Coefficient is a measure of how efficiently a horse's speed is used throughout the whole race.  Perfect efficiency is equal to a CC of 1.00000.  Any value below 1.00000 represents less than ideal efficiency, although it is almost always greater than 0.99900.  The very best horses continually display CC's above 0.99990 while lower quality horses may not display CCs that high.

The remaining terms are part of the "Sartin Methodology" for describing pace characteristics as discussed by Tom Brohamer ("Modern Pace Handicapping", by Tom Brohamer, William Morrow and Company, Inc,. New York, 1991):

EP (Early Pace) is velocity in fps (feet-per-second) to the second call.

SP (Sustained Pace) is the average of early pace and the final fraction, thus relating a horse's speed to the second call and his ability to finish.

AP (Average Pace) is the average  of EP and SP.

1Fr (First Fraction), 2Fr (Second Fraction) and 3Fr (Third Fraction) are the average velocities in fps between each of the calls.

TE (Total Energy) is the sum of EP and 3Fr.  It is the total available energy based on current conditions of distance, surface and track as well as inherent ability.

%E (Percent Early) is a relative measure of energy used through the second call (EP/TE).  Speed types display %E figures significantly higher than off-the-pace types, although the absolute numbers are greatly affected by the distance of a race.