Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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2008 Kentucky Derby Starters
Below are the 2008 Kentucky Derby starters in post position order with their lifetime PFs in graded stakes and their pace parameters in 2008 races at a mile or more on dirt or a synthetic surface (plus the top five contenders in each pace parameter category). Horses listed in red are Dual Qualifiers. Those listed in maroon have been identified as additional elite juveniles of 2007 from sources other than the Experimental Free Handicap. Data are current through April 30. A
Pre-Derby analysis is available here. |
| PP | CONTENDER | EFH | SIRE | AWD | DIRT | %C | SIRE LINE | DAM'S SIRE | AWD | DIRT | %C | DAM'S SIRE LINE | BLOODLINES | DP | DI | CD | RIDER | TRAINER | OWNER | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | CoOL COAL MAN | MINESHAFT | 8.50 | * | 8.50 | * | 0.0 | BOLD RULER | RUBIANO | 7.95 | 8.09 | 5.0 | RAISE A NATIVE | P/P | 10 | - | 8 | - | 15 | - | 1 | - | 0 | 3.00 | 0.79 | LEPAROUX | ZITO | LAPENTA | |||||||||||||
| 2 | TaLe of Ekati | 118 | TALE OF THE CAT | 7.34 | 7.41 | 0.0 | NORTHERN DANCER | SUNDAY SILENCE | 8.00 | * | 8.00 | * | 0.0 | TURN-TO | P/P | 9 | - | 1 | - | 12 | - | 2 | - | 0 | 2.00 | 0.71 | COA | TAGG | FIPKE | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Anak Nakal | 113 | VICTORY GALLOP | 8.21 | 8.14 | 0.0 | RAISE A NATIVE | QUIET AMERICAN | 7.95 | 7.90 | 12.5 | RAISE A NATIVE | P/P | 5 | - | 7 | - | 8 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 4.00 | 0.85 | BEJARANO | ZITO | FOUR ROSES THOROUGHBREDS | ||||||||||||||
| 4 | Court Vision | 119 | GULCH | 7.95 | 7.87 | 6.1 | RAISE A NATIVE | STORM BIRD | 8.08 | 7.84 | 6.4 | NORTHERN DANCER | P/P | 11 | - | 5 | - | 12 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 3.67 | 0.96 | GOMEZ | MOTT | WINSTAR FARM LLC & IEAH STABLES | ||||||||||||||
| 5 | EIGHT BELLES (f) | UNBRIDLED'S SONG | 7.93 | 8.03 | 4.5 | RAISE A NATIVE | DIXIELAND BAND | 7.77 | 7.76 | 7.2 | NORTHERN DANCER | P/P | 7 | - | 4 | - | 11 | - | 0 | - | 2 | 2.20 | 0.58 | SAEZ | JONES | FOX HILL FARMS INC | |||||||||||||||
| 6 | Z FORTUNE | SIPHON (BRZ) | 7.80 | 7.56 | 10.0 | PRINCE ROSE | FORTUNATE PROSPECT | 7.71 | 7.50 | 5.3 | RAISE A NATIVE | NP/P | 1 | - | 0 | - | 3 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 1.67 | 0.50 | ALBARADO | ASMUSSEN | ZAYAT STABLES LLC | |||||||||||||||
| 7 | BIG TRUCK | 102 | HOOK AND LADDER | 8.50 | * | 8.50 | * | 0.0 | NORTHERN DANCER | GO FOR GIN | 8.50 | * | 8.50 | * | 0.0 | RIBOT | P/NP | 5 | - | 0 | - | 11 | - | 1 | - | 1 | 1.40 | 0.39 | CASTELLANO | TAGG | FEIN | ||||||||||
| 8 | VISIONAIRE | GRAND SLAM | 7.22 | 7.25 | 0.0 | RAISE A NATIVE | FRENCH DEPUTY | 7.13 | 7.13 | 0.0 | NORTHERN DANCER | P/P | 6 | - | 1 | - | 5 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 3.80 | 1.08 | LEZCANO | MATZ | TEAM VALOR INTERNATIONAL & VISION RACING LLC | |||||||||||||||
| 9 | Pyro | 120 | PULPIT | 8.40 | 8.47 | 6.1 | BOLD RULER | WILD AGAIN | 8.14 | 8.02 | 6.5 | NEARCTIC | P/P | 8 | - | 7 | - | 11 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 3.73 | 0.88 | BRIDGMOHAN | ASMUSSEN | WINCHELL THOROUGHBREDS LLC | ||||||||||||||
| 10 | CoLONEL JOHN | 116 | TIZNOW | 8.24 | 8.05 | 0.0 | IN REALITY | TURKOMAN | 9.18 | 9.33 | 12.9 | RAISE A NATIVE | NP/P | 4 | - | 1 | - | 9 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 2.11 | 0.64 | NAKATANI | HARTY | WINSTAR FARM LLC | ||||||||||||||
| 11 | Z Humor | DISTORTED HUMOR | 8.27 | 8.07 | 17.3 | RAISE A NATIVE | A.P. INDY | 8.63 | 8.44 | 7.0 | BOLD RULER | P/P | 7 | - | 7 | - | 13 | - | 0 | - | 1 | 2.73 | 0.68 | DOUGLAS | MOTT | ZAYAT STABLES LLC | |||||||||||||||
| 12 | SMOOTH AIR | SMOOTH JAZZ | 7.00 | * | 7.00 | * | 0.0 | NORTHERN DANCER | FRENCH DEPUTY | 7.13 | 7.13 | 0.0 | NORTHERN DANCER | P/P | 4 | - | 0 | - | 4 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 3.00 | 1.00 | CRUZ | STUTTS JR. | MOUNT JOY STABLES INC. | |||||||||||||
| 13 | BOB BLACK JACK | 103 | STORMY JACK | IN REALITY | NATIVE PROSPECTOR | 8.10 | 8.10 | 0.0 | RAISE A NATIVE | NP/P | 5 | - | 0 | - | 3 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 4.33 | 1.25 | MIGLIORE | KASPAROFF | HARMON & KASPAROFF | |||||||||||||||||
| 14 | MONBA | 113 | MARIA'S MON | 8.13 | 8.00 | 7.1 | RAISE A NATIVE | EASY GOER | 8.97 | 8.89 | 15.0 | RAISE A NATIVE | P/P | 3 | - | 3 | - | 12 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 2.00 | 0.50 | DOMINGUEZ | PLETCHER | STARLIGHT STABLE, LUCARELLI & SAYLOR | ||||||||||||||
| 15 | ADRIANO | A.P. INDY | 8.71 | 8.68 | 14.9 | BOLD RULER | MR. PROSPECTOR | 7.99 | 7.81 | 5.9 | RAISE A NATIVE | P/P | 13 | - | 13 | - | 24 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 3.17 | 0.78 | PRADO | MOTION | COURTLANDT FARMS | |||||||||||||||
| 16 | DENIS OF CORK | HARLAN'S HOLIDAY | 7.10 | 7.10 | 0.0 | NORTHERN DANCER | UNBRIDLED | 7.79 | 7.88 | 7.7 | RAISE A NATIVE | P/P | 3 | - | 3 | - | 6 | - | 0 | - | 2 | 1.80 | 0.36 | BOREL | CARROLL | WARREN JR. & WARREN JR. | |||||||||||||||
| 17 | CoWBOY CAL | 109 | GIANT'S CAUSEWAY | 8.81 | 8.69 | 12.5 | NORTHERN DANCER | SEEKING THE GOLD | 8.33 | 8.05 | 11.3 | RAISE A NATIVE | P/P | 7 | - | 1 | - | 10 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 2.60 | 0.83 | VELAZQUEZ | PLETCHER | STONERSIDE STABLE | ||||||||||||||
| 18 | ReCAPTURETHEGLORY | CHEROKEE RUN | 7.55 | 7.48 | 0.0 | BLUSHING GROOM | DEHERE | 7.73 | 7.54 | 0.0 | NORTHERN DANCER | P/P | 6 | - | 2 | - | 4 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 5.00 | 1.17 | BAIRD | ROUSSEL III | ROUSSEL III & LAMARQUE | |||||||||||||||
| 19 | GAYEGO | GILDED TIME | 6.76 | 6.85 | 0.0 | DAMASCUS | LOST CODE | 6.32 | 6.34 | 0.0 | RIBOT | NP/NP | 5 | - | 6 | - | 4 | - | 1 | - | 0 | 4.33 | 0.94 | SMITH | LOBO | CUBANACAN STABLES | |||||||||||||||
| 20 | BIG BROWN | BOUNDARY | 7.40 | 7.18 | 0.0 | NORTHERN DANCER | NUREYEV | 8.44 | 8.28 | 7.0 | NORTHERN DANCER | P/P | 4 | - | 7 | - | 23 | - | 2 | - | 0 | 1.67 | 0.36 | DESORMEAUX | DUTROW JR. | IEAH STABLES & POMPA JR. | |||||||||||||||
Possible Indicators Relevant to Classic Performance:
|
Dual Qualifiers: Pyro Court Vision Tale of Ekati |
other Elite 2007 juveniles: Bob Black Jack Colonel John Cowboy Cal Z Humor |
DI>4 Horses: Bob Black Jack Gayego Recapturetheglory |
|
Horses With Dominant Classicity: Big Brown Big Truck Colonel John Cowboy Cal Monba Z Fortune |
sire/ Broodmare Sire AWDs>=8.00f
On Dirt: Big Truck Colonel John Cool Coal Man Cowboy Cal Monba Pyro Z Humor |
PF -55 or Better At Three: Big Brown (-89) Smooth Air (-69) Denis of Cork (-67) Tale of Ekati (-63) Gayego (-62) Z FORTUNE (-59) COURT VISION (-56) |
|
Top five Pace Parameter Horses (# Of Categories): Gayego (6) Bob Black Jack (5) Colonel John (5) Pyro (4) Visionaire (4) Big Brown (2) Eight Belles (2) Recapturetheglory (2) Smooth Air (1) Z Fortune (1) |
horses with <16 dosage points: bob black jack colonel john denis of cork recapturetheglory smooth air Visionaire z fortune |
no starts or unplaced on dirt: adriano bob black jack colonel john cowboy cal |
|
Out-of-the-money last start: anak nakal big truck cool coal man Denis of cork Pyro visionaire |
prior good race at churchill downs: anak nakal cool coal man court vision denis of cork monba pyro recapturetheglory |
derby-winning rider or trainer: adriano big brown big truck cool coal man denis of cork gayego tale of ekati visionaire |
PFs:
| HORSE | PF | FIN | DATE | RACE | GR | AGE/SEX | TRK | DIST | SURF | TRK COND |
| Adriano | 11 | 4th | 10-06-07 | lane's end breeders' futurity | g1 | 2yo | kee | 8.50 | synthetic | fst |
| Adriano | 24 | 9th | 02-24-08 | Fountain of Youth S | G2 | 3yo | GP | 9.00 | Dirt | fst |
| Adriano | -40 | 1st | 03-22-08 | Lane's End S | G2 | 3yo | TP | 9.00 | SYNTHETIC | fst |
| Anak Nakal | -5 | 2nd | 10-28-07 | Nashua S | G3 | 2yo | Aqu | 8.00 | Dirt | gd |
| Anak Nakal | -30 | 1st | 11-24-07 | Kentucky Jockey Club S | G2 | 2yo | CD | 8.50 | Dirt | fst |
| Anak Nakal | 10 | 8th | 02-24-08 | fountain of youth s | G2 | 3yo | gp | 9.00 | Dirt | fst |
| Anak Nakal | -16 | 7th | 03-15-08 | rebel s | G2 | 3yo | op | 8.50 | Dirt | fst |
| Anak Nakal | -49 | 5TH | 04-05-08 | WOOD MEMORIAL S | G1 | 3YO | AQU | 9.00 | Dirt | fst |
| Big Brown | -89 | 1st | 03-29-08 | Florida Derby | G1 | 3yo | GP | 9.00 | Dirt | fst |
| Big Truck | 11 | 4th | 11-24-07 | remsen s | g2 | 2yo | aqu | 9.00 | Dirt | fst |
| Big Truck | 9 | 5th | 01-05-08 | hutcheson s | g2 | 3yo | gp | 7.00 | Dirt | sy |
| Big Truck | -47 | 1st | 03-15-08 | Tampa Bay Derby | G3 | 3yo | Tam | 8.50 | Dirt | fst |
| Big Truck | 5 | 11TH | 04-12-08 | BLUE GRASS S | G1 | 3yo | KEE | 9.00 | SYNTHETIC | fst |
| Bob Black Jack | -11 | 4th | 11-22-07 | hollywood prevue s | g3 | 2yo | hol | 7.00 | SYNTHETIC | fst |
| Bob Black Jack | -25 | 3rd | 03-15-08 | San Felipe S | G2 | 3yo | SA | 8.50 | SYNTHETIC | fst |
| Bob Black Jack | -43 | 2nd | 04-05-08 | Santa Anita Derby | G1 | 3yo | SA | 9.00 | SYNTHETIC | fst |
| Colonel John | -34 | 2nd | 12-22-07 | Cashcall Futurity | G1 | 2yo | Hol | 8.50 | SYNTHETIC | fst |
| Colonel John | -13 | 1st | 03-01-08 | Sham S | G3 | 3yo | SA | 9.00 | SYNTHETIC | fst |
| Colonel John | -45 | 1st | 04-05-08 | Santa Anita Derby | G1 | 3yo | SA | 9.00 | SYNTHETIC | fst |
| Cool Coal Man | 4 | 7th | 11-24-07 | Kentucky Jockey Club S | G2 | 2yo | CD | 8.50 | Dirt | fst |
| Cool Coal Man | -44 | 1st | 02-24-08 | Fountain of Youth S | G2 | 3yo | GP | 9.00 | Dirt | fst |
| Cool Coal Man | 1 | 9TH | 04-12-08 | BLUE GRASS S | G1 | 3yo | KEE | 9.00 | SYNTHETIC | fst |
| Court Vision | -21 | 1st | 10-28-07 | Iroquois S | G3 | 2yo | CD | 8.00 | Dirt | fst |
| Court Vision | -9 | 1st | 11-24-07 | Remsen S | G2 | 2yo | Aqu | 9.00 | Dirt | fst |
| Court Vision | -17 | 3rd | 02-24-08 | Fountain of Youth S | G2 | 3yo | GP | 9.00 | Dirt | fst |
| Court Vision | -56 | 3rd | 04-05-08 | Wood Memorial S | G1 | 3yo | Aqu | 9.00 | Dirt | fst |
| Cowboy Cal | -35 | 1st | 01-01-08 | Tropical Park Derby | G3 | 3yo | Crc | 9.00 | Turf | fm |
| Cowboy Cal | -41 | 2ND | 04-12-08 | BLUE GRASS S | G1 | 3yo | KEE | 9.00 | SYNTHETIC | FST |
| Denis of Cork | -67 | 1st | 02-18-08 | Southwest S | G3 | 3yo | OP | 8.00 | Dirt | fst |
| DENIS OF CORK | -23 | 5TH | 04-05-08 | Illinois Derby | G2 | 3yo | Haw | 9.00 | Dirt | fst |
| Eight Belles (f) | -21 | 1st | 03-16-08 | Honeybee S | G3 | 3yof | OP | 8.50 | Dirt | fst |
| Eight Belles (f) | -39 | 1st | 04-06-08 | Fantasy S | G2 | 3yof | OP | 8.50 | Dirt | fst |
| Gayego | -19 | 2nd | 03-15-08 | San Felipe S | G2 | 3yo | SA | 8.50 | SYNTHETIC | fst |
| Gayego | -62 | 1ST | 04-12-08 | ARKANSAS DERBY | G2 | 3yo | OP | 9.00 | Dirt | fst |
| MONBA | -30 | 4th | 12-22-07 | Cashcall Futurity | G1 | 2yo | Hol | 8.50 | SYNTHETIC | fst |
| MONBA | -42 | 1ST | 04-12-08 | BLUE GRASS S | G1 | 3yo | KEE | 9.00 | SYNTHETIC | fst |
| Pyro | -48 | 2nd | 10-06-07 | Champagne S | G1 | 2yo | Bel | 8.00 | Dirt | fst |
| Pyro | -65 | 2nd | 10-27-07 | BC Juvenile | G1 | 2yo | Mth | 8.50 | Dirt | sy |
| Pyro | -17 | 1st | 02-09-08 | Risen Star S | G3 | 3yo | FG | 8.50 | Dirt | fst |
| Pyro | -43 | 1st | 03-08-08 | Louisiana Derby | G2 | 3yo | FG | 8.50 | Dirt | fst |
| PYRO | 4 | 10TH | 04-12-08 | BLUE GRASS S | G1 | 3yo | KEE | 9.00 | SYNTHETIC | fst |
| Recapturetheglory | -57 | 1st | 04-05-08 | Illinois Derby | G2 | 3yo | Haw | 9.00 | Dirt | fst |
| Smooth Air | -50 | 1st | 01-05-08 | Hutcheson S | G2 | 3yo | GP | 7.00 | Dirt | sy |
| Smooth Air | -69 | 2nd | 03-29-08 | Florida Derby | G1 | 3yo | GP | 9.00 | Dirt | fst |
| Tale of Ekati | -21 | 2nd | 07-26-07 | sanford s | G2 | 2yo | sar | 6.00 | Dirt | fst |
| Tale of Ekati | -34 | 1st | 09-15-07 | Futurity S | G2 | 2yo | Bel | 7.00 | Dirt | fst |
| Tale of Ekati | -14 | 4th | 10-27-07 | breeders' cup juvenile | g1 | 2yo | mth | 8.50 | Dirt | sy |
| Tale of Ekati | -17 | 6th | 03-08-08 | Louisiana Derby | G2 | 3yo | FG | 8.50 | Dirt | fst |
| Tale of Ekati | -63 | 1st | 04-05-08 | Wood Memorial S | G1 | 3yo | Aqu | 9.00 | Dirt | fst |
| Visionaire | -6 | 3rd | 02-09-08 | Risen Star S | G3 | 3yo | FG | 8.50 | Dirt | fst |
| Visionaire | -52 | 1st | 03-08-08 | GOTHAM S | G3 | 3YO | Aqu | 8.50 | Dirt | sy |
| VISIONAIRE | -17 | 5TH | 04-12-08 | BLUE GRASS S | G1 | 3yo | KEE | 9.00 | SYNTHETIC | fst |
| Z Fortune | -23 | 1st | 01-12-08 | LeComte S | G3 | 3yo | FG | 8.00 | Dirt | fst |
| Z Fortune | -9 | 2nd | 02-09-08 | Risen Star S | G3 | 3yo | FG | 8.50 | Dirt | fst |
| Z Fortune | -26 | 5th | 03-15-08 | rebel s | G2 | 3yo | op | 8.50 | Dirt | fst |
| Z Fortune | -59 | 2nd | 04-12-08 | ARKANSAS DERBY | G2 | 3yo | OP | 9.00 | Dirt | fst |
| Z Humor | 14 | 3rd | 09-02-07 | Sapling S | G3 | 2yo | Mth | 6.00 | Dirt | fst |
| Z Humor | -40 | 3rd | 10-06-07 | Champagne S | G1 | 2yo | Bel | 8.00 | Dirt | fst |
| Z Humor | -5 | 5th | 10-27-07 | breeders' cup juvenile | g1 | 2yo | mth | 8.50 | Dirt | sy |
| Z Humor | -27 | 1st | 12-07-07 | Boyd's Gaming Delta Jackpot S | G3 | 2yo | Ded | 8.50 | Dirt | fst |
| Z Humor | -10 | 4th | 02-24-08 | Fountain of Youth S | G2 | 3yo | GP | 9.00 | Dirt | fst |
| Z Humor | -38 | 3rd | 04-05-08 | Illinois Derby | G2 | 3yo | Haw | 9.00 | Dirt | fst |
Pace Parameters:
| HORSE | RACE | TRK | DATE | DIST | SLOPE | INT | CC | EP | SP | AP | 1Fr | 2Fr | 3Fr | TE | %E | 4f | 6f | 8f | 9f | 10f | Adj10f | 10fTT | 10fLQ |
| ADRIANO | FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S | GP | 0224 | 9.00 | 1.0360 | 1.0632 | 0.99963 | 54.31 | 51.67 | 52.99 | 54.04 | 54.83 | 49.03 | 103.3 | 52.57 | 48.63 | 74.02 | 99.72 | 112.66 | 125.65 | 125.65 | 25.70 | 25.93 |
| ADRIANO | LANE'S END S | TP | 0322 | 9.00 | 1.0404 | 1.0497 | 1.00000 | 54.70 | 53.54 | 54.12 | 55.74 | 52.75 | 52.38 | 107.1 | 51.07 | 47.43 | 72.32 | 97.55 | 110.26 | 123.04 | 122.24 | 25.23 | 25.49 |
| ANAK NAKAL | FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S | GP | 0224 | 9.00 | 1.0218 | 1.0722 | 0.99973 | 54.48 | 52.47 | 53.48 | 54.11 | 55.20 | 50.45 | 104.9 | 51.94 | 48.68 | 73.67 | 98.84 | 111.48 | 124.15 | 124.15 | 25.17 | 25.31 |
| ANAK NAKAL | REBEL S | OP | 0315 | 8.50 | 1.0632 | 1.0359 | 0.99985 | 54.75 | 51.79 | 53.27 | 55.60 | 53.17 | 48.84 | 103.6 | 52.85 | 47.42 | 72.98 | 99.10 | 112.32 | 125.63 | 125.23 | 26.11 | 26.53 |
| ANAK NAKAL | WOOD MEMORIAL S | AQU | 0405 | 9.00 | 1.0509 | 1.0485 | 0.99991 | 54.34 | 51.99 | 53.16 | 55.05 | 53.05 | 49.63 | 104.0 | 52.25 | 47.99 | 73.49 | 99.43 | 112.53 | 125.70 | 124.70 | 25.94 | 26.28 |
| BIG BROWN | ALW | GP | 0305 | 8.00 | 1.0734 | 1.0101 | 0.99996 | 56.73 | 53.95 | 55.34 | 58.19 | 54.06 | 51.16 | 107.9 | 52.58 | 45.33 | 70.05 | 95.40 | 108.25 | 121.22 | 121.22 | 25.35 | 25.82 |
| BIG BROWN | FLORIDA DERBY | GP | 0329 | 9.00 | 1.0579 | 1.0233 | 0.99998 | 56.57 | 54.34 | 55.46 | 57.64 | 54.54 | 52.11 | 108.7 | 52.04 | 45.73 | 70.22 | 95.20 | 107.83 | 120.54 | 120.54 | 24.98 | 25.35 |
| BIG TRUCK | SAM F. DAVIS S | TAM | 0216 | 8.50 | 1.0105 | 1.0781 | 1.00000 | 54.19 | 53.70 | 53.94 | 54.38 | 53.83 | 53.21 | 107.4 | 50.46 | 48.58 | 73.17 | 97.86 | 110.23 | 122.61 | 121.61 | 24.69 | 24.75 |
| BIG TRUCK | TAMPA BAY DERBY | TAM | 0315 | 8.50 | 1.0329 | 1.0556 | 0.99977 | 55.29 | 52.99 | 54.14 | 55.27 | 55.31 | 50.69 | 106.0 | 52.16 | 47.59 | 72.34 | 97.37 | 109.97 | 122.61 | 121.61 | 25.03 | 25.24 |
| BIG TRUCK | BLUE GRASS S | KEE | 0412 | 9.00 | 0.9964 | 1.0973 | 0.99996 | 53.36 | 53.01 | 53.18 | 52.96 | 54.16 | 52.66 | 106.0 | 50.34 | 49.80 | 74.59 | 99.36 | 111.73 | 124.10 | 124.10 | 24.76 | 24.74 |
| BOB BLACK JACK | SAN FELIPE S | SA | 0315 | 8.50 | 0.9910 | 1.0907 | 0.99997 | 54.25 | 55.08 | 54.66 | 54.32 | 54.09 | 55.91 | 110.2 | 49.23 | 48.68 | 72.75 | 96.75 | 108.73 | 120.69 | 122.09 | 24.00 | 23.94 |
| BOB BLACK JACK | SANTA ANITA DERBY | SA | 0405 | 9.00 | 1.0115 | 1.0686 | 1.00000 | 55.24 | 54.82 | 55.03 | 55.49 | 54.75 | 54.40 | 109.6 | 50.40 | 47.59 | 71.72 | 95.94 | 108.08 | 120.24 | 121.64 | 24.22 | 24.29 |
| COLONEL JOHN | SHAM S | SA | 0301 | 9.00 | 0.9723 | 1.1137 | 1.00000 | 53.37 | 54.34 | 53.85 | 52.80 | 54.54 | 55.31 | 108.7 | 49.10 | 50.01 | 74.17 | 98.11 | 110.02 | 121.89 | 123.29 | 23.94 | 23.77 |
| COLONEL JOHN | SANTA ANITA DERBY | SA | 0405 | 9.00 | 0.9949 | 1.0854 | 0.99992 | 54.47 | 55.25 | 54.86 | 54.85 | 53.71 | 56.04 | 110.5 | 49.29 | 48.34 | 72.37 | 96.35 | 108.32 | 120.29 | 121.69 | 23.98 | 23.95 |
| COOL COAL MAN | GP ALW | GP | 0126 | 9.00 | 1.0729 | 1.0198 | 0.99988 | 55.81 | 52.65 | 54.23 | 56.82 | 53.89 | 49.50 | 105.3 | 53.00 | 46.32 | 71.56 | 97.44 | 110.56 | 123.80 | 123.80 | 25.88 | 26.36 |
| COOL COAL MAN | FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S | GP | 0224 | 9.00 | 1.0262 | 1.0578 | 0.99983 | 55.65 | 53.73 | 54.69 | 55.56 | 55.83 | 51.81 | 107.5 | 51.77 | 47.39 | 71.84 | 96.51 | 108.91 | 121.35 | 121.35 | 24.67 | 24.84 |
| COOL COAL MAN | BLUE GRASS S | KEE | 0412 | 9.00 | 1.0091 | 1.0837 | 0.99988 | 53.97 | 52.84 | 53.41 | 53.57 | 54.79 | 51.71 | 105.7 | 51.06 | 49.12 | 73.95 | 98.86 | 111.33 | 123.82 | 123.82 | 24.91 | 24.97 |
| COURT VISION | FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S | GP | 0224 | 9.00 | 0.9982 | 1.0895 | 0.99982 | 54.48 | 53.41 | 53.95 | 53.79 | 55.83 | 52.33 | 106.8 | 51.02 | 49.03 | 73.50 | 97.94 | 110.16 | 122.38 | 122.38 | 24.45 | 24.44 |
| COURT VISION | WOOD MEMORIAL S | AQU | 0405 | 9.00 | 1.0117 | 1.0834 | 0.99970 | 54.06 | 52.31 | 53.18 | 53.53 | 55.01 | 50.55 | 104.6 | 51.68 | 49.27 | 74.25 | 99.33 | 111.90 | 124.49 | 123.49 | 25.08 | 25.16 |
| COWBOY CAL | BLUE GRASS S | KEE | 0412 | 9.00 | 0.9933 | 1.0916 | 0.99998 | 54.25 | 54.14 | 54.19 | 53.88 | 55.00 | 54.03 | 108.3 | 50.09 | 48.93 | 73.20 | 97.41 | 109.50 | 121.58 | 121.58 | 24.21 | 24.17 |
| DENIS OF CORK | SOUTHWEST S | OP | 0218 | 8.00 | 1.0014 | 1.0844 | 0.99988 | 54.66 | 53.44 | 54.05 | 54.42 | 55.07 | 52.22 | 106.9 | 51.13 | 48.67 | 73.05 | 97.44 | 109.64 | 121.84 | 121.44 | 24.39 | 24.40 |
| DENIS OF CORK | ILLINOIS DERBY | HAW | 0405 | 9.00 | 0.9900 | 1.0983 | 0.99993 | 53.91 | 53.61 | 53.76 | 53.29 | 55.16 | 53.31 | 107.2 | 50.29 | 49.47 | 73.90 | 98.25 | 110.40 | 122.54 | 122.34 | 24.35 | 24.29 |
| EIGHT BELLES (f) | HONEYBEE S | OP | 0316 | 8.50 | 0.9957 | 1.0904 | 0.99999 | 54.10 | 54.01 | 54.05 | 53.91 | 54.47 | 53.92 | 108.0 | 50.09 | 48.96 | 73.32 | 97.64 | 109.78 | 121.93 | 121.53 | 24.32 | 24.29 |
| EIGHT BELLES (f) | FANTASY S | OP | 0406 | 8.50 | 0.9934 | 1.0888 | 0.99997 | 54.63 | 54.35 | 54.49 | 54.27 | 55.32 | 54.08 | 108.7 | 50.25 | 48.62 | 72.74 | 96.81 | 108.82 | 120.83 | 120.43 | 24.06 | 24.02 |
| GAYEGO | SAN FELIPE S | SA | 0315 | 8.50 | 0.9857 | 1.0948 | 0.99997 | 54.25 | 55.25 | 54.75 | 54.22 | 54.30 | 56.25 | 110.5 | 49.09 | 48.78 | 72.74 | 96.59 | 108.49 | 120.36 | 121.76 | 23.85 | 23.76 |
| GAYEGO | ARKANSAS DERBY | OP | 0412 | 9.00 | 1.0520 | 1.0349 | 0.99995 | 55.77 | 53.54 | 54.66 | 56.55 | 54.30 | 51.30 | 107.1 | 52.08 | 46.58 | 71.36 | 96.58 | 109.32 | 122.14 | 121.74 | 25.22 | 25.55 |
| MONBA | FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S | GP | 224 | 9.00 | 1.0719 | 1.0382 | 0.99932 | 54.24 | 49.92 | 52.08 | 54.31 | 54.09 | 45.60 | 99.8 | 54.35 | 48.25 | 74.52 | 101.43 | 115.08 | 128.84 | 128.84 | 26.91 | 27.41 |
| MONBA | BLUE GRASS S | KEE | 0412 | 9.00 | 0.9852 | 1.0991 | 0.99998 | 54.11 | 54.24 | 54.17 | 53.57 | 55.20 | 54.37 | 108.5 | 49.87 | 49.23 | 73.40 | 97.46 | 109.45 | 121.42 | 121.42 | 24.05 | 23.96 |
| PYRO | RISEN STAR S | FG | 0209 | 8.50 | 0.9658 | 1.1244 | 0.99968 | 52.18 | 54.71 | 53.45 | 52.28 | 51.98 | 57.25 | 109.4 | 47.69 | 50.80 | 75.15 | 99.22 | 111.17 | 123.08 | 123.28 | 24.07 | 23.86 |
| PYRO | LOUISIANA DERBY | FG | 0308 | 8.50 | 1.0067 | 1.0842 | 0.99994 | 53.49 | 53.91 | 53.70 | 54.06 | 52.42 | 54.33 | 107.8 | 49.62 | 49.01 | 73.71 | 98.46 | 110.86 | 123.26 | 123.46 | 24.76 | 24.80 |
| PYRO | BLUE GRASS S | KEE | 0412 | 9.00 | 0.9860 | 1.1071 | 0.99997 | 53.15 | 53.15 | 53.15 | 52.55 | 54.37 | 53.14 | 106.3 | 50.00 | 50.21 | 74.88 | 99.44 | 111.69 | 123.92 | 123.92 | 24.56 | 24.47 |
| RECAPTURETHEGLORY | ILLINOIS DERBY | HAW | 0405 | 9.00 | 0.9960 | 1.0870 | 1.00000 | 54.40 | 54.55 | 54.47 | 54.32 | 54.54 | 54.70 | 109.1 | 49.86 | 48.60 | 72.79 | 96.94 | 109.01 | 121.07 | 120.87 | 24.15 | 24.13 |
| SMOOTH AIR | SAM F. DAVIS S | TAM | 0216 | 8.50 | 1.0123 | 1.0768 | 0.99999 | 54.22 | 53.55 | 53.89 | 54.38 | 53.93 | 52.88 | 107.1 | 50.63 | 48.56 | 73.20 | 97.94 | 110.34 | 122.76 | 121.76 | 24.74 | 24.82 |
| SMOOTH AIR | FLORIDA DERBY | GP | 0329 | 9.00 | 1.0400 | 1.0432 | 0.99985 | 56.14 | 53.86 | 55.00 | 56.44 | 55.57 | 51.58 | 107.7 | 52.13 | 46.70 | 71.20 | 96.03 | 108.54 | 121.11 | 121.11 | 24.83 | 25.08 |
| TALE OF EKATI | LOUISIANA DERBY | FG | 0308 | 8.50 | 0.9996 | 1.0947 | 0.99999 | 53.22 | 53.04 | 53.13 | 53.18 | 53.29 | 52.86 | 106.1 | 50.16 | 49.72 | 74.56 | 99.40 | 111.82 | 124.24 | 124.44 | 24.84 | 24.84 |
| TALE OF EKATI | WOOD MEMORIAL S | AQU | 0405 | 9.00 | 1.0889 | 1.0105 | 0.99999 | 55.11 | 52.13 | 53.62 | 56.96 | 51.77 | 49.14 | 104.3 | 52.84 | 46.35 | 72.07 | 98.58 | 112.07 | 125.69 | 124.69 | 26.51 | 27.11 |
| VISIONAIRE | RISEN STAR S | FG | 0209 | 8.50 | 0.9948 | 1.0987 | 0.99989 | 52.75 | 53.83 | 53.29 | 53.14 | 51.98 | 54.92 | 107.7 | 48.98 | 49.85 | 74.62 | 99.34 | 111.69 | 124.03 | 124.23 | 24.72 | 24.69 |
| VISIONAIRE | BLUE GRASS S | KEE | 0412 | 9.00 | 0.9586 | 1.1297 | 1.00000 | 52.88 | 54.00 | 53.44 | 51.89 | 54.89 | 55.12 | 108.0 | 48.96 | 50.92 | 75.10 | 98.95 | 110.78 | 122.55 | 122.55 | 23.85 | 23.60 |
| Z FORTUNE | LECOMTE S | FG | 0112 | 8.00 | 1.0024 | 1.0852 | 0.99995 | 53.85 | 54.34 | 54.09 | 54.20 | 53.15 | 54.84 | 108.7 | 49.54 | 48.83 | 73.32 | 97.82 | 110.08 | 122.34 | 122.54 | 24.51 | 24.52 |
| Z FORTUNE | RISEN STAR S | FG | 0209 | 8.50 | 0.9873 | 1.1043 | 0.99997 | 52.95 | 53.81 | 53.38 | 52.94 | 52.97 | 54.67 | 107.6 | 49.21 | 49.97 | 74.57 | 99.06 | 111.28 | 123.48 | 123.68 | 24.49 | 24.41 |
| Z FORTUNE | REBEL S | OP | 0315 | 8.50 | 1.0555 | 1.0417 | 0.99989 | 54.71 | 52.12 | 53.42 | 55.50 | 53.27 | 49.53 | 104.2 | 52.51 | 47.55 | 72.95 | 98.83 | 111.91 | 125.08 | 124.68 | 25.88 | 26.25 |
| Z FORTUNE | ARKANSAS DERBY | OP | 0412 | 9.00 | 1.0276 | 1.0592 | 0.99998 | 55.07 | 53.74 | 54.40 | 55.47 | 54.30 | 52.40 | 107.5 | 51.23 | 47.62 | 72.24 | 97.08 | 109.57 | 122.10 | 121.70 | 24.85 | 25.02 |
| Z HUMOR | SAM F. DAVIS S | TAM | 0216 | 8.50 | 1.0353 | 1.0581 | 0.99997 | 54.40 | 52.84 | 53.62 | 54.90 | 53.42 | 51.28 | 105.7 | 51.46 | 48.02 | 73.07 | 98.42 | 111.18 | 124.00 | 123.00 | 25.35 | 25.58 |
| Z HUMOR | FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S | GP | 0224 | 9.00 | 1.0285 | 1.0620 | 0.99975 | 55.05 | 52.88 | 53.96 | 54.86 | 55.41 | 50.71 | 105.8 | 52.03 | 47.99 | 72.83 | 97.90 | 110.51 | 123.15 | 123.15 | 25.07 | 25.26 |
| Z HUMOR | ILLINOIS DERBY | HAW | 0405 | 9.00 | 0.9941 | 1.0918 | 0.99997 | 54.19 | 53.99 | 54.09 | 53.81 | 54.95 | 53.80 | 108.0 | 50.18 | 49.02 | 73.35 | 97.63 | 109.76 | 121.88 | 121.68 | 24.28 | 24.25 |
Top Five Contenders in Key Pace Parameter Categories:
| 3Fr | TE | %E | 10f | Adj10f | 10fTT | 10fLQ | PF |
| PYRO | COLONEL JOHN | PYRO | BOB BLACK JACK | EIGHT BELLES | GAYEGO | VISIONAIRE | BIG BROWN (-89) |
| GAYEGO | GAYEGO | VISIONAIRE | COLONEL JOHN | BIG BROWN | VISIONAIRE | GAYEGO | SMOOTH AIR (-69) |
| COLONEL JOHN | BOB BLACK JACK | GAYEGO | GAYEGO | RECAPTURETHEGLORY | COLONEL JOHN | COLONEL JOHN | DENIS OF CORK (-67) |
| BOB BLACK JACK | PYRO | COLONEL JOHN | BIG BROWN | SMOOTH AIR | BOB BLACK JACK | PYRO | TALE OF EKATI (-63) |
| VISIONAIRE | RECAPTURETHEGLORY | Z FORTUNE | EIGHT BELLES | COOL COAL MAN | MONBA | BOB BLACK JACK | GAYEGO (-62) |
| Since 1998, the Derby winner has been among the top five 8 times each in 3Fr and TE, 5 times in %E, 6 times in 10f, 7 times each in 10fTT and 10fLQ and 8 times in PF. The pace parameters displayed above are for 2008 prep races at a mile or more on dirt. In addition to the horse, race, track, date and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times. These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 10f race (10fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race (10fLQ). Following 10f is Adj10f which is the projected 10f time adjusted for the differences in track speed between the track on which the prep race was run and Churchill Downs. The various pace parameters are described below. The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are displayed in the following table. The Adj10f number is missing because the comparative data is unavailable for the races used in developing the guideline figures. The significance of Adj10f is left to the reader. In addition, we have added the leading contenders by Performance Figures (PF) (when first, second or third in a 2008 graded race) to the Top 5 summary.
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Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures. Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures. Races for each horse are listed in chronological order with the latest race last. Pace parameters for the Gotham Stakes (G3) contested on March 8 are unavailable because the positions of the horses at the fractional distances were obscured by the weather conditions. |
Int., or Intercept is a measure of early speed and is inversely related to the slope. In this case, the lower the intercept, the greater the relative early speed. Intercepts also will usually fall between 0.9 (fast early) and 1.2 (slow early). CC, or Correlation Coefficient is a measure of how efficiently a horse's speed is used throughout the whole race. Perfect efficiency is equal to a CC of 1.00000. Any value below 1.00000 represents less than ideal efficiency, although it is almost always greater than 0.99900. The very best horses continually display CC's above 0.99990 while lower quality horses may not display CCs that high. The remaining terms are part of the "Sartin Methodology" for describing pace characteristics as discussed by Tom Brohamer ("Modern Pace Handicapping", by Tom Brohamer, William Morrow and Company, Inc,. New York, 1991): EP (Early Pace) is velocity in fps (feet-per-second) to the second call. SP (Sustained Pace) is the average of early pace and the final fraction, thus relating a horse's speed to the second call and his ability to finish. AP (Average Pace) is the average of EP and SP. 1Fr (First Fraction), 2Fr (Second Fraction) and 3Fr (Third Fraction) are the average velocities in fps between each of the calls. TE (Total Energy) is the sum of EP and 3Fr. It is the total available energy based on current conditions of distance, surface and track as well as inherent ability. %E (Percent Early) is a relative measure of energy used through the second call (EP/TE). Speed types display %E figures significantly higher than off-the-pace types, although the absolute numbers are greatly affected by the distance of a race. |