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2008
Epsom Derby Preview The
following article by Steve Miller has been recently published in RACEFORM UPDATE
in the UK. It is presented here with the permission of the author. New Approach has a perfect blend of speed and stamina UNLIKE LAST YEAR, when
the Vodafone Derby winner Authorized stood out like a sore thumb on both form
and Dosage credentials, the picture this year had looked more of a puzzle.
Several had similar claims in terms of stamina potential and the bulk of the
form looked much of a muchness. The ante-post market had been further muddied by
a couple of leading contenders needing to be supplemented (Casual Conquest and
Doctor Fremantle) and another (New Approach) apparently left in “by
mistake”. With the news that dual Classic runner-up New Approach (a colt
screaming out for middle distances) is to line up in the premier Classic and
that Casual Conquest has also committed to Epsom that picture has changed.
Contenders for the
Derby require a blend of speed and stamina that conforms to a Dosage index (DI)
of about 1.0 and a centre of distribution (CD) of around zero – or the best
fit to this standard in relative terms of those taking part. In addition to
stamina suitability (to which the Dosage system confines itself) other factors
will of course play their part – not least the ability to handle the track and
the prevailing going, how well the horse has been prepared for the race and
simply how good it is to begin with. The accompanying table shows
16 of the 18 left in at the five-day confirmation stage – Maidstone
Mixture and
Bouguereau are excluded from the table as both have inadequate points totals
(just 8 points each) making any reading unreliable. As
usual the table is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the
top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage Index (DI). 2008 Derby contenders
From his
Freemason Lodge Stables at Newmarket Sir Michael Stoute is responsible for three
Derby trial winners in Tartan Bearer, Doctor Fremantle and Tajaaweed. Tartan
Bearer has been
successful in both of his starts this term, following up his maiden win at
Leicester with success in the Dante Stakes, where he proved too good for Aidan
O’Brien’s Frozen Fire and Henry Cecil’s Twice Over. The Spectrum colt is a
brother to Golan and Gift Range, being out of the Generous mare Highland Gift.
Golan finished runner-up to Galileo in the Derby after taking the 2,000 Guineas
and subsequently won the King George. Tartan Bearer appears near the head of our
table on a negative CD and a DI of 0.60, giving him more than enough stamina for
his Epsom test. Doctor
Fremantle justified
favouritism when landing the Chester Vase from the Michael Jarvis-trained All
The Aces. He had previously been beaten a neck by John Gosden’s Bronze Cannon
in a Newmarket handicap. The Sadler’s Wells colt has finished in the first two
in his five starts and stays 12 furlongs well. He has just the sort of blend of
speed and stamina that you would expect from a Derby winner and has been
supplemented for the race. Tajaaweed
won the Dee Stakes at Chester from the Henry Cecil-trained Unnefer (the
subsequent winner of a Listed race at Newmarket) and Achill Island (sent to the
French Derby, where he finished at the back). Last term the Dynaformer colt won
on his debut at Nottingham, but struggled in Group 1 company when finishing down
the field in the Racing Post Trophy. Reportedly working well at home and not
without chances, he just makes our threshold on stamina criteria. Weld hopeful The
unbeaten Casual Conquest has more than enough stamina to see out the
mile-and-a-half. The Hernando colt dismissed Washington Irving and Moiqen in
impressive style to take the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown by six
lengths. On the recommendation of trainer Dermot Weld connections have forked
out the £75,000 to supplement him despite worries over his inexperience (he has
only appeared twice, winning both times at Leopardstown). Curtain
Call
is another who will improve for stepping up to 12 furlongs, being by Sadler’s
Wells out of a Darshaan mare. Luca Cumani’s charge won a three-runner
conditions stakes race at Nottingham this season by a convincing six lengths
from Mark Johnston’s Drill Sergeant. He was subsequently a late withdrawal
from the Lingfield Derby trial due to firm ground. The Sadler’s Wells colt
split New Approach and Henrythenavigator in the Futurity Stakes at the Curragh
last term before returning to the same course to win the Group 2 Juddmonte
Beresford Stakes. He finished last season at Doncaster when fifth to Ibn Khaldun
in the Racing Post Trophy. He is expected to improve again at the Derby trip and
has already shown decent form. Ballydoyle
squad Aidan O’Brien is responsible for five of the remaining 18. Alessandro Volta won a Listed race at Leopardstown at the tail end of last season. The Montjeu colt was a beaten favourite when fourth (saddle slipped) to Moiqen on his reappearance this term in the Ballysax Stakes but subsequently made amends by holding off stablemate King Of Rome in the Lingfield Derby Trial. Washington
Irving is still a maiden
but is one who will improve for stepping up in trip. However, he would have to
show significant improvement on his effort behind Casual Conquest at
Leopardstown to figure here. A more realistic
proposition from Ballydoyle could come in the shape of Dante runner-up Frozen
Fire, although that one has shown recent market weakness. After winning a
14-runner maiden at Gowran Park last term he finished a well-beaten eighth at
Group 1 level in the Racing Post Trophy. He left that form behind with a solid
reappearance in the Dante, just failing to get to Tartan Bearer by a head. In terms of ability the dual 2,000 Guineas
winner, Henrythenavigator, was the clear pick of the O’Brien team. The
negatives against him were the trip and the likely going, neither of which he
was likely to relish. As
mentioned in my 2,000 Guineas article last month, the
Kingmambo colt is brother to Queen Cleopatra, an eight-furlong winner at three
and Group 1-placed at eight to 10 furlongs. With a DI of 1.92 and four stamina
points he was certain to improve when stepping up to a mile. However, a
mile-and-a-half could well be beyond him.
Sadler’s Wells is his dam sire and gives him a chance of getting it, while his
sire Kingmambo is able to throw up middle-distance horses when matched to the
right mare. The prevailing easy going has scuppered his participation, however,
and he has been taken out. Bashkirov
makes up the Ballydoyle team with Achill Island having run in the French Derby.
Bashkirov is a maiden who finished fourth behind Moiqen and Alessandro Volta at
Navan last term and the Galileo colt has made little impression this term. The John Gosden-trained
Bronze Cannon beat
Chester Vase winner Doctor Fremantle a neck at level weights in a handicap over
10 furlongs at Newmarket earlier this season and followed up over the same
course and distance at the end of May. With a DI of 1.57 the Lemon Drop Kid colt
is unlikely to fully see out the trip as well as some others here. Henry Cecil’s remaining chance of landing his fifth Derby rests with Kandahar Run now that the beaten Dante favourite Twice Over has been scratched from the race. The Rock Of Gibraltar colt has finished first or second in his five appearances to date, the latest of which was in Listed company over 10 furlongs at Newmarket. He has reportedly been catching pigeons at home, but distances short of 12 furlongs are likely to prove optimum for him. French
2,000 Guineas runner-up Rio De La Plata will be partnered by Frankie
Dettori for Godolphin in the Derby. While the Rahy colt should prove effective
at 10 furlongs, 12 furlongs may well stretch his stamina. Godolphin’s other
hope Ibn Khaldun, a late withdrawal from the French Derby due to lameness, had
better prospects of seeing out the trip at Chantilly than at Epsom. The Mark
Tompkins-trained Alan Devonshire appears at the head of our table and the
Mtoto colt will certainly stay (beyond middle distances in fact). He finished a
detached fourth of five to Alessandro Volta and King Of Rome in the Lingfield
Derby trial and looks out of his depth here. Peter Chapple-Hyam’s charge, Bouguereau, won
his maiden at Pontefract this term and was subsequently beaten a neck by the
Henry Cecil-trained Unnefer in a conditions stakes race at Newbury. The Alhaarth
colt finished seventh in the Italian Derby over 11 furlongs on his latest
outing. The Fergus Wilson-owned Maidstone Mixture, whose
Chantilly trainer Richard Chotard had refused to run in the Derby, has a
hopeless cause. Hopefully the grey, by Linamix, who recently won a hurdles race
at Strasbourg, will stay out of the way of the others.
Dramatic
U-turn The dramatic news that New
Approach will run in the Derby providing the ground is “good or softer”
revitalises a Derby market that needed a shot in the arm. Trainer Jim Bolger had
previously said that New Approach had been left in “by mistake” (his target
being the Irish Derby), which seemed a pity (if barely plausible) as the Galileo
colt looks to be better suited to the mile-and-a-half at Epsom than to either of
the English or Irish 2,000 Guineas, in which he finished an admirable runner-up
on both occasions over an inadequate trip. The move makes sense for last
season’s champion juvenile, who has just missed out on two Classics this term
and is screaming out for middle distances. His DI of 0.89 gives him just the
right blend of speed and stamina for the premier Classic. The colt’s owner
Princess Haya Of Jordan (and her husband Sheikh Mohammed) no doubt had some say
in this outcome, which is to be applauded. River Proud is a surprise supplement to the Derby field. Last season’s Group 3 Tattersall Stakes winner reappeared in the Craven when a well-beaten fourth to Twice Over. Paul Cole’s charge subsequently ran a blinder from a bad draw in the French Guineas to be placed third and was considered by some to be unlucky to have not reached at least runner-up spot in that. He looks unlikely to get the Derby trip, however. Speed/stamina
balance The optimum blend of speed and stamina for the Derby is often expressed as a Dosage index (DI) of 1.0 and a centre of distribution (CD) of zero. The average DI for the past ten winners is 1.12, but those slightly below this figure down to around and below 1.0 appear best suited to the stamina requirements of the race (see table). Dosage of previous winners
*
Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race
(see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm) The Derby winner typically comes from a band of
below DI 1 up to about 1.4. The winners who matched this requirement over the
past decade are: Authorized (0.86), Sir Percy (0.54), Motivator (1.43), North
Light (1.13), Kris Kin (1.05), High Chaparral (0.82), Galileo (1.11) and
High-Rise (0.82). Shortlist Using
this indicator we arrive at the following shortlist of those with the required
stamina for this year’s race: Tartan
Bearer (0.60), Washington Irving (0.65), Casual Conquest (0.68), Bashkirov
(0.79), Doctor Fremantle (0.82), Curtain Call (0.83), New Approach (0.89),
Alessandro Volta (1.00), Frozen Fire (1.33) and Tajaaweed (1.45). Of these the two that
stand out are New Approach and the unexposed Casual Conquest. The
three Freemason Lodge contenders (Doctor Fremantle, Tartan Bearer and Tajaaweed),
the Ballydoyle team, and the likes of Curtain Call, Kandahar Run and Rio
De La Plata, ensure excellent strength in depth. The Derby field once more is
something to get excited about – and New Approach can show them the
way. Verdict THE
DOSAGE SYSTEM is a key tool in the assessment of the distance potential of
racehorses, based on certain sires (only those that demonstrate prepotent
influence) in the first four generations of the subject individual’s pedigree.
It is especially useful when form information is either scant or absent. It also
helps in identifying if a racehorse is being campaigned over a less effective
distance than it is ideally suited. Three
statistics are generated by the Dosage system: a Dosage Profile (DP), a Dosage
Index (DI) and a Centre of Distribution (CD).
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