2009 Two Thousand Guineas Preview
 by Steve Miller

The following article by Steve Miller has been recently published in RACEFORM UPDATE in the UK.  It is presented here with the permission of the author.

Mastercraftsman looks set to successfully carry his leading two-year old form into his Classic season

Master and commander

THE STANJAMES.COM 2,000 Guineas is again shaping into a mouth-watering renewal. The hopes and expectations for the elite of a new generation of three-year-old thoroughbreds will again be measured and dashed against the reality of Newmarket’s unrelenting Rowley Mile.

What the form won’t tell us we again look to the Dosage system to supply. The table looks at 21 of the 24 contenders left in at the five-day confirmation stage. Ashram, Imperial Guest and Pure Poetry are excluded as they have insufficient points for a meaningful reading. As usual those with the most stamina potential appear at the top and those with the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage index (DI).

The individual with the optimum blend of speed and stamina is invariably the one to side with. It is left to us to identify the colt in which these qualities best reside.

2,000 Guineas contenders

Talent

More so than usual, Brian Meehan’s yard appears blessed with a surfeit of talent. Delegator represents the Manton handler in the early-season Classic, being catapulted to favouritism after an emphatic win in the Craven on his reappearance this term, off the back of very bullish work reports. Last term he finished runner-up in a Newmarket maiden to the ill-fated Wingwalker before returning to the July course to chalk up his opening victory. He subsequently finished a close-up fifth in the Dewhurst. He goes into the race with a very plausible chance of a first Classic victory for Meehan, although there is a proviso that fast ground could rule him out. The confidence behind Delegator is strong and the Dansili colt represents the stable rather than the highly talented Crowded House who ran out a convincing winner of the Racing Post Trophy when signing off highly talented Crowded House who ran out a convincing winner of the Racing Post Trophy when signing off last term. Crowded House’s two wins from four starts last term both came at a mile and by all accounts he already wants 10 furlongs. Indeed the Dosage underlines that the Rainbow Quest colt would be much better suited to the Derby than this and connections look to have made the right decision in directing him along the Dante-Derby route where his true strengths lie.

Godolphin recruits

Shaweel, transferred from Mark Johnston’s Middleham yard to Saeed bin Suroor at the end of last season, won twice for his former handler (including the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes) from eight starts. The Dansili colt, out of a Peintre Celebre mare, also only narrowly failed in two Group 1s for Johnston – behind Mastercraftsman at the Curragh and Intense Focus at Newmarket. He finished tamely behind Vocalised in the Greenham on his reappearance for bin Suroor, when starting second-favourite, but no doubt the run will have brought him on. The Guineas trip should suit – his failure in the Greenham may be more to do with being short of race fitness than his inability to get a mile.

Ashram finished sixth in the Dewhurst, but didn’t do much wrong before that in following a maiden win with a good second in a conditions stakes race before taking the Group 3 Somerville Tattersall Stakes at HQ. The Indian Haven colt is another to be switched to Godolphin from John Hills’ yard in Upper Lambourn. The colt has reportedly been working well recently and Godolphin’s racing manager Simon Crisford has indicated that either, or both, Ashram and Shaweel could line up.

Team Ballydoyle

Mastercraftsman and Rip Van Winkle have been the most prominent in the betting of the Ballydoyle block bookings in the build up to the race. Despite being left in at the five-day confirmation stage, Westphalia and Set Sail are now likely to head to the French 2,000 Guineas despite being previously named as part of the quartet most likely to tackle Newmarket. Grand Ducal has been left in, while Born To Be King is scratched.

Rip Van Winkle followed up his maiden win at the Curragh with Group 3 victory at Leopardstown. He was a subsequent beaten favourite at Group 1 level when seventh of 13 in the Dewhurst, when held up. Nevertheless, he was only a couple of lengths adrift of the winner and the Galileo colt is no doubt better than the bare form of the race suggests. Rip Van Winkle’s preparation was interrupted for several weeks due to an over-reach, but the Galileo colt has reportedly come to hand in his work and trainer Aidan O’Brien does not believe that the hold-up has disadvantaged him. His true strengths are likely to prove at middle distances however.

Mastercraftsman was a disappointing fourth to Naaqoos in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere, when odds-on favourite and beaten more than two lengths. The colt was previously unbeaten in four starts, all at the Curragh, including two Group 1s and a Group 2. Aidan O’Brien’s charge just got the better of Alhaban and Intense Focus in the Railway Stakes before slamming Coventry Stakes winner Art Connoisseur and dual Group 1 winner Bushranger in the Phoenix Stakes, on a sound surface. He went on to show good resolve when wearing down and short-heading Shaweel in heavy going in the National Stakes at the Curragh. The slog in the Irish race may well have taken the edge off him for his subsequent appearance at Longchamp. Naaqoos, Art Connoisseur and Shaweel have all failed to uphold the form in their respective reappearances this term. Nevertheless, the International Classifications ranked Mastercraftsman as the world’s top performing two-year-old on a rating of 122. The Danehill Dancer colt should improve again and continue to take the beating against his own generation in his Classic season and is in the sweet spot of our analysis to reproduce his best at around a mile.

O’Brien is also responsible for Westphalia who beat Zacinto a neck in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster after taking his maiden and a Listed race in Ireland. The colt has also finished runner-up to Intense Focus and Bushranger, in two outings at the Curragh, and subsequently filled the same spot behind John Gosden’s Donativum in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita. Like Mastercraftsman, Westphalia is a son of Danehill Dancer, but looks likely to prove a slightly sharper type than his stablemate being a little lower in our table on a DI of 2.4. Westphalia reappeared along with Set Sail in the Group 3 Prix de Fontainebleau at Longchamp filling second and fourth spots respectively behind Silver Frost.

Set Sail was the winner of a maiden at Gowran Park and finished last season running fourth to Crowded House in the Racing Post Trophy. Both Set Sail and Westphalia are expected to come on from their needed early-season outing. Both may well now head back to Longchamp rather than Newmarket.

Grand Ducal by Danehill Dancer out of a Shirley Heights mare won on his debut and finished last season placed third behind Arazan in the Group 2 Futurity Stakes at the Curragh. The colt can be expected to show more stamina than the other Danehill Dancer colts in the race given that Shirley Heights, a classic/professional chef-de-race, is his dam sire. O’Brien describes him as a “solid sort of colt” who is in “good form”.

The John Oxx-trained Arazan won his first two starts last term, including the Group 2 Galileo EBF Futurity Stakes at the Curragh (Grand Ducal third) before finishing placed behind Mastercraftsman and Shaweel in the National Stakes at the same track, when odds-on to deliver in the heavy going. Owned by the Aga Khan, the Anabaa colt is a half brother to Azamour, being out of the Lear Fan mare Asmara. A classy type capable of winning on fast and heavy going and further progress seems certain.

Oxx is also responsible for Sea The Stars. The Cape Cross colt won a Leopardstown maiden before proving half a length too good for his highly regarded stablemate Mourayan in the Group 2 Juddmonte Beresford Stakes. Being out of the Miswaki mare Urban Sea, and therefore a half brother to the likes of Galileo and Black Sam Bellamy (both by Sadler’s Wells), he should prove effective at a mile and further this season. He is nevertheless likely to prove most effective at sharper distances than his half brothers, due to his sharper top-line influences, which brings him into the reckoning here.

The Giant’s Causeway colt, Intense Focus, is exposed winning twice from 10 starts, most notably in the Dewhurst (when equipped with a visor and a tongue-tie) in a three-way photo with Lord Shanakill and Finjaan. The Jim Bolger-trained colt was beaten a length on his reappearance at Leopardstown by Kevin Prendergast’s Recharge. Clearly a competitive type, but it would perhaps be disappointing if we can’t find one or two to get the better of him at the highest level this term.

Bolger is also responsible for Gan Amhras, the winner of a maiden at Naas last term. The Galileo colt was also placed third behind Mourayan on his debut and split Soul City and his stablemate Intense Focus in the valuable Goffs Million at the Curragh. However, the colt is out of a Darshaan mare and features at the top of our table. Consequently he is likely to be better suited to middle distance and staying trips.

The Roger Charlton trained Cityscape won a novice race at Salisbury in impressive fashion last term and hasn’t been out of the first two in four career starts. The Selkirk colt had to settle for second best to Vocalised on his reappearance in the Greenham, but has shown good ability with the promise of more to come. He was also runner-up to Jukebox Jury in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes at Ascot last season. The colt remains an exciting prospect and appears effective at the trip despite having no stamina points in his Dosage profile.

The Sir Michael Stoute-trained Evasive won two of his three races last term culminating in the Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes at Newbury, at the expense of Bonny Charlie, after winning a competitive Newmarket maiden in good style. The colt is American bred by Elusive Quality out of a Storm Cat mare, Evasive is relatively unexposed and improving, but has no stamina points in his profile. While he should see out the mile okay, he is unlikely to do so as well as others in the race. Evasive’s preparation has been disrupted by a foot abscess causing him to miss his intended prep in either the the Craven or the Greenham on his way to the Classic. The colt has also recently been found to be ”slightly lame”. To his credit Evasive has won on soft and good to firm going.

Marcus Tregoning is reportedly pleased with Finjaan’s preparation for the race and excited about his prospects. He was taken out of the Greeham on race day due to the going. The Royal Applause colt is out of a Dayjur mare and Tregoning is reportedly hopeful rather than confident of his charge getting the required trip at Newmarket, but is otherwise convinced he’ll run a big race. The Dosage indicates that his best trip should be at around 7 furlongs, although he may get the mile just as well when he fully matures.

Lord Shanakill won twice from eight starts last term and finished his season well by taking the Group 2 Mill Reef stakes at Newbury and then finishing a nose down to Intense Focus in the Dewhurst. The Speightstown colt, out of a Theatrical mare, was also cut from the Greenham field, due to a reported high temperature the day before the race. The Karl Burke-trained colt has had the benefit of a racecourse spin with older horses at Ripon in preparation for the big day. Jim Crowley is set to keep the ride at Newmarket.

Himalya won a Doncaster maiden for his trainer Jeremy Noseda before finishing a close up fourth in the Coventry at Royal Ascot behind Art Connoisseur, Intense Focus and Lord Shanakill. The Danehill Dancer colt is unexposed and open to further improvement.

Peter Chapple-Hyam’s Monitor Closely signed off his juvenile season with a maiden win at Newbury. The half brother to Eclipse winner Mount Nelson had to settle for runner-up spot behind the John Gosden-trained Nehaam at Newmarket on his reappearance this term. The Oasis Dream colt represents the yard rather than Sayif, a good second to Bushranger in the Middle Park Stakes last term.

The Henry Cecil-trained On Our Way could only manage fourth of five behind Redwood when failing to justify favouritism in the Listed Feilden Stakes at Newmarket on his reappearance this term. The Royal Lodge third won twice last season and showed promise. However, a new level of form is needed to be competitive here and it doesn’t look like the Oasis Dream colt will be adding to the trainer’s tally of 23 domestic Classics since taking over from his stepfather Sir Cecil Boyd-Rochfort at the end of 1968.

Zafisio won the Group 1 Criterium International at Saint-Cloud last season and three of his six career starts. His winning form has come on soft or heavy and Roger Curtis, who took over the colt’s training when Paul Blockley had his licence withdrawn at the end of last year, has indicated that he may well go for the German or French equivalents rather than Newmarket in search of more suitable going. The Efisio colt is also likely to be better suited to middle distances.

Pure Poetry made a winning reappearance for Richard Hannon on the all-weather at Kempton before running third to Delegator in the Craven, with the George Margarson-trained Imperial Guest trailing in last in the same race.

Ocean’s Minstrel is the only representative of his sire Pivotal in this year’s potential line up. His winning form has come on the all-weather in a maiden at Kempton at the end of last term and on his reappearance in a Listed race at Lingfield.

Connections have decided to supplement Newmarket’s Listed European Free Handicap winner Ouqba. Barry Hills’ charge has won three times from eight career starts. The Red Ransom colt was another to take part in the Dewhurst, finishing ninth.

Dosage track record

The Dosage has proved extraordinarily helpful as a tool in determining the winner of this race. Since I have been writing this column the system has given us Haafhd in 2004, when he was put forward to topple the unsuitable favourite One Cool Cat. In 2005 it told us that Footstepsinthesand and Oratorio had a clear advantage over the red-hot favourite Dubawi – both finishing in front of that one in the race itself. The confident vote went to George Washington in 2006. In 2007 the system gave us the first, second and fourth, in Cockney Rebel, Vital Equine and Duke Of Marmalade (a Cockney Rebel/Vital Equine straight forecast paid out £692.93 to a £1 stake!), and last year the system told us that Henrythenavigator had a better blend of speed and stamina at a mile than New Approach (who was marked out for middle distances). Last season’s column stated:

“The Kingmambo colt [Henrythenavigator] is brother to the high-class Queen Cleopatra, an eight-furlong winner at three and Group 1-placed at eight to 10 furlongs. With a DI of 1.92 and four stamina points he is virtually certain to improve again when stepping up to a mile on good going... Whatever New Approach does in the Guineas I expect him to outperform his Guineas effort in the Derby/Irish Derby. In the 2,000 Guineas I’m going for Fast Company [a subsequent non-runner] with a saver on the forgotten horse Henrythenavigator for Ireland”.

In the absence of Fast Company I made Henrythenavigator my bet. He obliged at an SP of 11/1, an extraordinary price considering who trains him, while runner-up New Approach indeed went on to outperform his Guineas effort at middle distances, in the Derby and later in the Champion Stakes, where he ran out a very smart winner. The Dosage system has clearly proved indispensible in identifying the aptitude of individuals in terms of distance potential.

Sweet spot

The average Dosage index (DI) for the past 11 2,000 Guineas winners is 1.65 (see table), but those with a slightly higher DI than the average (up to around DI 2) seem the ideal type for the race. Of the past 11 winners those that fall into this bracket are: Henrythenavigator (1.92), Cockney Rebel (1.91), George Washington (1.67), Haafhd (2.33), Rock Of Gibraltar (2.16), Kings Best (2.06) and King Of Kings (1.78). Golan is the only winner of this race in the past 11 renewals with a DI of below 1 (indicating greater stamina potential than is usually associated with this race), which gives hope to those that appear better suited to middle distances such as Rip Van Winkle (DI 1.10) and Gan Amhras (0.76).

* Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)

If we concentrate on those lying in the band of DI 1.4-2.2 (capturing the majority of the past 11 winners), we are left with a shortlist of: Arazan (DI 1.53), On Our Way (1.80), Mastercraftsman (1.82), Shaweel (1.86), Set Sail (1.93), Himalya (1.93), Ouqba (1.96), Monitor Closely (2.00) and Intense Focus (2.20).

Summary

It’s often said that the Guineas is the last major race of the two-year-old season. I expect Mastercraftsman to successfully carry his standard-bearing two-year-old form into his three-year-old campaign and to have an edge at the trip over his stablemate Rip Van Winkle. Delegator could well find himself running into a place, with Arazan and his stablemate Sea The Stars also quietly fancied.

Suggested finishing order:

1) Mastercraftsman
2) Arazan
3) Delegator
4) Rip Van Winkle
5) Sea The Stars