2009 Ascot Gold Cup Preview
 by Steve Miller

The following article by Steve Miller has been recently published in RACEFORM UPDATE in the UK.  It is presented here with the permission of the author.

Godolphin still has three possible runners in Thursday's feature race - Veracity and Easten Anthem look best placed to outstay the aging likely favourite

Godolphin team poised to rob heroic Yeats of historic victory

WHILE FEW thoroughbreds stay 20 furlongs, if the pace in the Ascot Gold Cup is true the horse with the greatest reserves of stamina ought to win, assuming that horse is not run off its legs in the early stages and that relative ability and general fitness are otherwise broadly comparable.

The dream combination of a horse with the right sort of profile for such extreme distance that is also Group 1 calibre is relatively rare. Consequently it is common for horses that do make the grade to win the race more than once (Yeats, Royal Rebel, Kayf Tara, Drum Taps, Sadeem, Gildoran, Ardross, Le Moss and Sagaro have all won this race at least twice since the mid-1970s).

Those with either (or both) a Dosage index (DI) of less than 1.0 and a zero or negative centre of distribution (CD), to have won the Gold Cup in the past 12 renewals are: Yeats (three times), Papineau, Kayf Tara (twice), Enzeli, Celeric, Classic Cliché, Double Trigger and Arcadian Heights. Such types seem to run well in this race habitually in spite of what they achieve elsewhere and regardless of odds.

The table shows the 10 left in at the five-day confirmation stage – comprising seven entires (four horses and three colts) and three geldings. As usual the table is organised with those showing the greatest stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage index (DI).

2009 Ascot Gold Cup possibles 

Sole entry

Ballydoyle’s sole entry, Yeats, equalled Sagaro’s record of three consecutive victories in the race last year and bids to go one better this season in winning for an historic fourth time. The Sadler’s Wells’ entire has won six Group 1s including a Coronation Cup, an Irish St Leger and a Prix Royal-Oak, in addition to his three Gold Cups, and 14 of his 23 career starts to date. To say he disappointed on his reappearance this term would be an understatement when odds-on favourite and running no sort of race in sixth place behind Alandi and Hindu Kush in a Listed race at Navan. He reportedly blew hard after the race and while he can be expected to line up at Ascot in much better shape, the transformation required to pull off the epic feat would be dramatic. The question is can the eight-year-old veteran rise to the occasion one more time. Merman was eight when he won this back in 1900, but no eight-year-old has won since.

Before he won the Yorkshire Cup at 14 furlongs at the beginning of last season Geordieland had not won beyond 12 furlongs in 29 appearances. Nevertheless, he has finished runner-up in some notable distance races, including the Gold Cup itself in both 2007 and 2008. He is clearly best at distances beyond 12 furlongs as he confirmed when proving too good for Patkai on this term’s reappearance in the Henry II Stakes at Sandown over an extended two miles. Like Yeats the son of Johann Quatz is eight.

Godolphin trio

Godolphin still has three possibles at this stage – Veracity, Eastern Anthem and Sagara.

Veracity was taken out of this at the five-day stage last season. The Lomitas horse appears at the head of our table, indicating almost bottomless stamina. He has filled runner-up spots at Group level behind Mahler in the Queen’s Vase and Allegretto in the Goodwood Cup at three and last season was a close third to Yeats and Allegretto at Group 1 level in the Prix Royal-Oak at Longchamp. He won over two miles at Nad Al Sheba in February and subsequently finished third to Ask in the Yorkshire Cup. The five-year-old richly deserves a place in the line-up as one virtually certain to improve again at this trip.

Eastern Anthem put together three straight wins in Nad Al Sheba this term for Mubarak Bin Shafya’s yard. Since being transferred from Saeed Bin Suroor the son of Singspiel did nothing but improve and is currently one of the top-rated to line up here. Back with Bin Suroor for his summer campaign, the five-year-old was said to have needed the run in the Coronation Cup, failing to make an impression in sixth place behind Ask. However, he is not expected to fail for lack of stamina despite not being tried beyond 14 furlongs and would be interesting if turning out here at big odds.

Sagara has won only once in 15 starts but has been placed in Group company, notably when third in Dylan Thomas’s Arc. The Sadler’s Wells gelding was fifth to Yeats in this last year and finished his season as a runner-up to stablemate Veracity in the Jockey Club Cup over two miles at Newmarket.

Ask was an impressive winner of the Yorkshire Cup and secured his elusive Group 1 by snatching victory in a desperate three-way split with Youmzain and Look Here in the Coronation Cup at Epsom. He has been scratched from this with his owner preferring to aim him at the Arc, in which he finished sixth to Zarkava last season. The six-year-old son of Sadler’s Wells, out of a Rainbow Quest mare would have been the selection had he lined up here, with no less than 16 stamina points and a massive central concentration of 28 Classic points in his Dosage profile.

Khalid Abdullah’s Coastal Path, third in the race last year, has also been scratched from the race as his handler Andre Fabre considers him to not be in good enough form ahead of this year’s renewal.

Patkai has won at two miles in two races at Ascot at Group 3 level in emphatic style – in the Queen’s Vase last season and the Sagaro Stakes this season. The Indian Ridge colt was subsequently put in his place by Geordieland at Sandown when stepping up to Group 2 level in the Henry II Stakes. Despite having a higher DI than is usually associated with a Gold Cup horse (due to a concentration of 16 points in his Intermediate speed category), Sir Michael Stoute’s charge nevertheless has five stamina points, which will help him to get further than his overall DI suggests.

Last season’s St Leger fourth, Hindu Kush, held off Alandi and Sublimity in good style on his most recent appearance this season to land a Listed race over 14 furlongs at Leopardstown. The Sadler’s Wells colt is out of a Darshaan mare and has solid chances of staying this trip.

The Howard Johnson-trained Washington Irving finished fourth, behind Ask and Veracity in the Yorkshire Cup on his latest appearance for his new connections. A former Ballydoyle inmate, the four-year-old Montjeu gelding won a 10 furlong maiden at Navan last October. He should improve for stepping up in trip.

John Gosden is represented by the Dalakhani four-year-old colt Centennial who finished sixth of eight in the Yorkshire Cup on his latest appearance. In April he split Enroller and Tastahil at Newbury in the Group 3 John Porter Stakes.

The Barry Hills-trained Tastahil finished third to Geordieland and Patkai at Sandown at Group 2 level on his most recent appearance and previously beat All The Aces at Listed level at Newbury. The five-year-old gelding, like Eastern Anthem, is a son of Singspiel.

Negative centre of distribution

If a Dosage index of 1.0 and a centre of distribution of zero is the blueprint for a Derby hopeful, for a potential Ascot Gold Cup winner we are looking for a DI of less than 1.0 and ideally a negative CD. Recent winners of the race conforming to this ideal are: Papineau (DI 0.88, CD -0.04), Enzeli (0.54, -0.45), Celeric (0.00, -1.44), Double Trigger (0.21, -1.40) and Arcadian Heights (0.90, -0.05) – while Yeats (0.89, +0.08), Kayf Tara (0.90, +0.08) and Classic Cliché (0.84, 0.00) qualify in terms of DI and are very close to qualifying in respect of the CD.

This is all the more striking when we consider that negative CD horses are far less common than those with positive CDs, which explains why horses are able to win the Gold Cup in years when there is no particular good example of this type of horse in the race.

Dosage of previous winners

Shortlist

Our shortlist of those with a DI of 1.0 or below comprises: Veracity (DI 0.58), Eastern Anthem (0.58), Washington Irving (0.65), Hindu Kush (0.78), Yeats (0.89) and Geordieland (1.00). Moreover, Veracity, Eastern Anthem, Washington Irving and Hindu Kush also have negative CDs, marking them out for pronounced stamina potential.

Much as I would like to see Yeats work the magic one more time there are some solid types upwards of half his age lining up here that may be worth taking him on with at the respective odds. Despite being short of Yeats’ ability, on stamina aptitude and recent form Veracity looks the best equipped to deny the likely favourite. Eastern Anthem would be interesting if reproducing his best form, which looks to be a little classier than that of Veracity, but his most recent appearance in the Coronation Cup doesn’t have me brimming with confidence, despite the yard insisting that he needed the run in that. Hindu Kush at least has the advantage of victory in his latest appearance. Yeats and Geordieland, first and second in this race for the past two years, are of course again expected to be in the shake-up, despite their advancing years. However, Veracity and/or Eastern Anthem for Godolphin should both show boundless stamina and take advantage of any faltering on the part of the aging likely favourite.

Verdict

1) Veracity
2) Eastern Anthem
3) Yeats
4) Geordieland
5) Hindu Kush

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found on www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.