Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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 2009 Belmont Stakes Starters 

  Below are the 2009 Belmont Stakes starters in post position order with their PFs in graded stakes and selected other races and their pace parameters in 2009 races at a mile or more on dirt or a synthetic surface.  The information provided includes the contender's post position and morning line odds, EFH (Experimental Free Handicap) ranking, if ranked; the sire; the sire's AWD (average winning distance in North American open stakes); the sire's AWD in dirt and AWS races only; the sire's %C (percentage of progeny open stakes wins at the classic distances of 9 1/2, 10 and 12 furlongs); the sire's sire line; the dam's sire; the dam's sire's AWD; the dam's sire's AWD in dirt and AWS races only; the dam's sire's %C; the dam's sire line; the bloodline cross (P = Phalaris, NP = non-Phalaris); Dosage figures and known connections.  An asterisk (*) after the AWD indicates an AWD sample size of less than five.

 
Note: Dual Qualifiers are shown in red.  Others identified as elite two-year-olds of 2008 and with a DI of 4.00 or less are shown in maroon.  These include the two-year-old leaders by Experimental Free Handicap ranking, Timeform ranking of American-raced two-year-olds, The Thoroughbred Times Performance Rates, Beyer Speed Figures, Bloodstock Research BRIS Ratings, Thoroughbred Daily News (TDN) Rising Stars and PFs in graded races.
      
PP    M/L     CONTENDER   EFH    SIRE AWD   DIRT   %C     SIRE LINE  DAM'S SIRE AWD   DIRT   %C     DAM'S SIRE LINE    BLOODLINES      DP     DI     CD    RIDER TRAINER   OWNER
1   10-1   CHOCOLATE CANDY  116   CANDY RIDE 7.59   7.55   0.0   RAISE A NATIVE SEATTLE SLEW 8.20   8.01   10.9   BOLD RULER P/P   7 - 1 - 11 - 1 - 0   2.08   0.70   GOMEZ HOLLENDORFER   SID & JENNY CRAIG TRUST
2   4-1   DUNKIRK       UNBRIDLED'S SONG   7.92   8.05   3.7   RAISE A NATIVE   A.P. INDY 8.54   8.33   7.7   BOLD RULER P/P   9 - 13 - 16 - 0 - 2   3.00   0.68   VELAZQUEZ   PLETCHER    MAGNIER, TABOR & SMITH
3   15-1   MR. HOT STUFF      TIZNOW 8.49   8.44   7.9   IN REALITY TURKOMAN 9.20   9.35   15.6   RAISE A NATIVE NP/P   4 - 1 - 9 - 0 - 0   2.11   0.64   PRADO  HARTY WINSTAR FARM LLC
4   12-1   SUMMER BIRD      BIRDSTONE 8.38 * 8.38 * 25.0   RAISE A NATIVE SUMMER SQUALL 8.79   8.13 *   14.3   NORTHERN DANCER P/P   4 - 4 - 7 - 1 - 0   2.56   0.69   DESORMEAUX   ICE JAYARAMAN & JAYARAMAN
 5    20-1   LUV GOV      TEN MOST WANTED             NORTHERN DANCER   NEPAL 8.50 * 8.67 * 0.0   BOLD RULER P/P   7 - 2 - 5 - 0 - 0   4.60   1.14   MENA LUKAS MARYLOU WHITNEY STABLE
6   3-1   CHARITABLE MAN   117   LEMON DROP KID 8.36   8.05   8.3   RAISE A NATIVE SAINT BALLADO   7.80   7.63 * 0.0   TURN-TO P/P   9 - 1 - 15 - 1 - 0   2.06   0.69   GARCIA   MCLAUGHLIN    WARREN JR & WARREN JR
 7    2-1   MINE THAT BIRD       BIRDSTONE 8.38 * 8.38 *   25.0   RAISE A NATIVE   SMART STRIKE   8.50   8.50   16.7   RAISE A NATIVE P/P   8 - 3 - 5 - 0 - 0   5.40   1.19   BOREL WOOLEY JR   DOUBLE EAGLE RANCH & BUENO SUERTE EQUINE
8   12-1   FLYING PRIVATE      FUSAICHI PEGASUS 8.35   8.35   0.0   RAISE A NATIVE UNBRIDLED 7.71   7.78   7.1   RAISE A NATIVE P/P   15 - 11 - 14 - 0 - 2   3.67   0.88   LEPAROUX LUKAS GRAND SLAM FARM LLC
9   15-1   MINER'S ESCAPE     MINESHAFT 8.67 * 8.67 * 0.0   BOLD RULER BROAD BRUSH 8.14   7.91   6.7   DOMINO P/NP   8 - 13 - 15 - 0 - 0   3.80   0.81   LEZCANO ZITO LAPENTA
10   15-1   BRAVE VICTORY     LION HEART 6.10   6.10   0.0   NORTHERN DANCER COPELAN 8.01   7.76   0.0   TOM FOOL P/P   4 - 1 - 3 - 0 - 0   4.33   1.13   MARAGH ZITO LAPENTA

PFs:

For speed figure aficianados we have included additional information for your consideration.  Next to the starters' PF we have added the calculated equivalent Beyer Speed Figure (~BSF in green) based on a statistical correlation between PFs and BSFs.  This is followed by the actual Beyer Speed Figure (BSF in red) as published in Daily Racing Form past performances.  These data will allow for an easier comparison of figure patterns between PFs and BSFs.  For example, there is a 24-point jump between Mine That Bird's previous best BSF and his Kentucky Derby BSF (81 to 105).  Based on PFs, the jump between Mine That Bird's previous best figure and his Kentucky Derby figure is equivalent to only 9 BSF points (89 to 98).
    
HORSE PF ~BSF BSF FIN DATE RACE GR AGE/SEX TRK DIST SURF TRK COND
BRAVE VICTORY 4 82 73 7TH 10-04-08 CHAMPAGNE S G1 2YO BEL 8.00 DIRT FST
BRAVE VICTORY 36 70 61 5TH 11-01-08 IROQUOIS S G3 2YO CD 8.00 DIRT FST
BRAVE VICTORY -34 95 94 4TH 03-28-09 SWALE S G2 3YO GP 7.00 DIRT FST
BRAVE VICTORY -21 90 86 7TH 04-18-09 COOLMORE LEXINGTON S G2 3YO KEE 8.50 SYNTH FST
BRAVE VICTORY -26 92 91 3RD 05-09-09 PETER PAN S G2 3YO BEL 9.00 DIRT FST
Charitable Man -28 93 93 1st 09-13-08 Futurity S G2 2yo Bel 7.00 Dirt gd
Charitable Man -16 89 85 7TH 04-11-09 TOYOTA BLUE GRASS S G1 3YO KEE 9.00 SYNTH FST
Charitable Man -48 100 100 1ST 05-09-09 PETER PAN S G2 3YO BEL 9.00 DIRT FST
Chocolate Candy -21 90 83 3rd 12-20-08 CashCall Futurity G1 2yo Hol 8.50 Synth fst
Chocolate Candy -17 89 87 1ST 01-17-09 CALIFORNIA DERBY l 3yo gg 8.50 Synth fst
Chocolate Candy -45 99 94 1ST 02-14-09 EL CAMINO REAL DERBY G3 3yo gg 9.00 Synth fst
CHOCOLATE CANDY -55 102 95 2ND 04-04-09 santa anita derby g1 3YO SA 9.00 Synth fst
CHOCOLATE CANDY 4 82 86 5TH 05-02-09 KENTUCKY DERBY g1 3YO CD 10.00 DIRT SY
DUNKIRK -45 99 108 2ND 03-28-09 FLORIDA DERBY G1 3YO GP 9.00 DIRT fst
DUNKIRK 25 74 77 11TH 05-02-09 KENTUCKY DERBY G1 3YO CD 10.00 DIRT SY
FLYING PRIVATE -21 90 85 2ND 02-28-09 MOUNTAIN VALLEY S L 3YO OP 6.00 DIRT fst
FLYING PRIVATE -18 89 96 2ND 03-21-09 LANE'S END S G2 3YO TP 9.00 SYNTH fst
FLYING PRIVATE -20 90 91 5TH 04-11-09 ARKANSAS DERBY G2 3YO OP 9.00 Dirt FST
FLYING PRIVATE 111 44 41 19th 05-02-09 KENTUCKY DERBY G1 3YO CD 10.00 DIRT SY
FLYING PRIVATE -45 99 102 4TH 05-16-09 PREAKNESS S G1 3YO PIM 9.50 DIRT FST
LUV GOV -40 97 94 1ST 05-02-09 MSW    3YO&UP CD 8.50 DIRT SY
LUV GOV -26 92 94 8TH 05-16-09 PREAKNESS S G1 3YO PIM 9.50 DIRT FST
MINE THAT BIRD -5 85 77 1ST 10-05-08 GREY S CAN3 2YO WO 8.50 SYNTH fst
MINE THAT BIRD -18 89 74 12TH 10-25-08 BC JUVENILE G1 2YO SA 8.50 SYNTH fst
MINE THAT BIRD 6 81 81 2ND 02-28-09 BORDERLAND DERBY L 3YO SUN 8.50 DIRT fst
MINE THAT BIRD -11 87 80 4TH 03-29-09 SUNLAND DERBY L 3YO SUN 9.00 DIRT fst
MINE THAT BIRD -42 98 105 1ST 05-02-09 KENTUCKY DERBY G1 3YO CD 10.00 DIRT SY
MINE THAT BIRD -57 103 106 2ND 05-16-09 PREAKNESS S G1 3YO PIM 9.50 DIRT FST
MINER'S ESCAPE -28 93 89 1ST 05-02-09 FEDERICO TESIO S L 3YO PIM 9.00 DIRT FST
MR. HOT STUFF -17 89 93 3RD 02-28-09 SHAM S G3 3YO SA 9.00 SYNTH FST
MR. HOT STUFF -51 101 94 3RD 04-04-09 santa anita derby g1 3YO SA 9.00 Synth fst
MR. HOT STUFF 39 69 71 15TH 05-02-09 KENTUCKY DERBY g1 3YO CD 10.00 DIRT SY
SUMMER BIRD -39 97 99 3RD 04-11-09 ARKANSAS DERBY G2 3YO OP 9.00 Dirt FST
SUMMER BIRD 4 82 86 6TH 05-02-09 KENTUCKY DERBY g1 3YO CD 10.00 DIRT SY

Pace Parameters*:

*The significance of projected times based on races at 8.00f is questionable and the data should be considered accordingly.  The adjusted 12f times reflect the difference in track speed between Belmont Park and the track at which the prep race was run.

Below is presented a variety of pace parameters for potential Belmont contenders in 2009 prep races at a mile or more on dirt or synthetic surface.  In addition to the horse, race, track, date and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 12f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 12f race (12fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 12f race (12fLQ).  Following 12f is Adj12f which is the projected 12f time adjusted for the differences in track speed between the track on which the prep race was run and Belmont Park.

The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are displayed in the following table.  The Adj12f number is missing because the comparative data is unavailable for the races used in developing the guideline figures.  The significance of Adj12f is left to the reader.

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures.  Races for each horse are listed in chronological order with the latest race last. 

3Fr TE %E 12f 12fTT 12fLQ
>=50.95 >=106.1 <=52.40 <=148.05 <=25.31 <=25.58

  
HORSE RACE TRK DATE DIST SLOPE INT CC EP SP AP 1FR 2FR 3FR TE %E 4F 6F 8F 10F

12F

 Adj12F 12FTT 12FLQ
BRAVE VICTORY COOLMORE LEXINGTON S KEE 0418 8.50 1.0192 1.0699 0.99999 54.42 53.55 53.98 54.71 53.86 52.68 107.1 50.81 48.25 72.95 97.80 122.78 147.85 148.65 24.98 25.07
BRAVE VICTORY PETER PAN S BEL 0509 9.00 0.9935 1.0845 0.99991 55.52 54.79 55.16 55.02 56.45 54.06 109.6 50.66 48.15 72.04 95.87 119.66 143.42 143.42 23.79 23.76
CHARITABLE MAN TOYOTA BLUE GRASS S KEE 0411 9.00 0.9819 1.1057 0.99985 53.89 53.58 53.74 52.91 55.88 53.26 107.2 50.27 49.75 74.08 98.27 122.34 146.32 147.12 24.07 23.98
CHARITABLE MAN PETER PAN S BEL 0509 9.00 1.0303 1.0446 0.99989 56.90 54.96 55.93 57.14 56.45 53.01 109.9 51.78 46.23 70.21 94.43 118.84 143.40 143.40 24.41 24.56
CHOCOLATE CANDY CALIFORNIA DERBY GG 0117 8.00 0.9895 1.0944 0.99977 54.68 53.66 54.17 53.75 56.56 52.64 107.3 50.96 48.99 73.17 97.27 121.30 145.29 146.49 24.03 23.98
CHOCOLATE CANDY EL CAMINO REAL DERBY GG 0214 9.00 0.9867 1.0987 0.99962 54.55 53.46 54.00 53.27 57.20 52.38 106.9 51.02 49.29 73.53 97.66 121.72 145.71 146.91 24.05 23.99
CHOCOLATE CANDY SANTA ANITA DERBY SA 0404 9.00 0.9782 1.1042 0.99998 54.19 54.50 54.35 53.50 55.61 54.82 109.0 49.72 49.33 73.35 97.19 120.89 144.49 145.69 23.71 23.60
CHOCOLATE CANDY KENTUCKY DERBY CD 0502 10.00 1.0283 1.0692 1.00000 53.61 52.60 53.10 54.24 52.41 51.58 105.2 50.96 48.79 74.03 99.51 125.18 150.99 150.39 25.67 25.81
DUNKIRK ALW GP 0219 9.00 1.0355 1.0527 0.99999 55.03 53.55 54.29 55.61 53.89 52.08 107.1 51.38 47.44 72.19 97.24 122.52 147.98 146.98 25.28 25.46
DUNKIRK FLORIDA DERBY GP 0328 9.00 0.9969 1.0804 0.99989 55.59 54.79 55.19 55.02 56.72 53.99 109.6 50.73 47.93 71.80 95.65 119.48 143.30 142.30 23.83 23.81
DUNKIRK KENTUCKY DERBY CD 0502 10.00 1.0489 1.0510 0.99985 54.34 51.85 53.10 54.66 53.72 49.36 103.7 52.40 48.14 73.66 99.60 125.86 152.39 151.79 26.26 26.52
FLYING PRIVATE LANE'S END S TP 0321 9.00 0.9941 1.0912 0.99991 54.42 53.85 54.14 53.87 55.48 53.29 107.7 50.53 48.95 73.25 97.50 121.72 145.90 143.90 24.22 24.19
FLYING PRIVATE ARKANSAS DERBY OP 0411 9.00 1.0508 1.0405 0.99995 54.72 53.61 54.16 56.30 51.80 52.50 107.2 51.04 47.12 72.14 97.61 123.40 149.46 148.26 25.79 26.06
FLYING PRIVATE KENTUCKY DERBY CD 0502 10.00 1.0849 1.0304 0.99959 53.82 49.51 51.67 54.34 52.82 45.21 99.0 54.36 48.26 74.92 102.36 130.40 158.92 158.32 28.04 28.52
FLYING PRIVATE PREAKNESS S PIM 0516 9.50 1.0029 1.0824 0.99997 54.65 54.03 54.34 54.45 55.02 53.41 108.1 50.55 48.54 72.90 97.28 121.68 146.09 146.09 24.40 24.41
LUV GOV MSW OP 0305 8.00 1.0049 1.0877 1.00000 53.54 53.22 53.38 53.60 53.42 52.90 106.4 50.32 49.28 74.07 98.90 123.76 148.64 147.44 24.86 24.88
LUV GOV MSW OP 0319 8.50 1.0252 1.0682 1.00000 54.00 53.03 53.51 54.52 53.02 52.07 106.1 50.89 48.47 73.45 98.65 124.00 149.49 148.29 25.36 25.49
LUV GOV MSW KEE 0404 8.50 0.9947 1.0938 0.99993 53.95 53.43 53.69 53.51 54.80 52.90 106.9 50.47 49.29 73.77 98.21 122.62 147.00 147.80 24.41 24.38
LUV GOV MSW CD 0502 8.50 1.0166 1.0727 0.99993 54.50 53.26 53.88 54.63 54.26 52.02 106.5 51.18 48.39 73.07 97.89 122.82 147.83 147.23 24.93 25.01
LUV GOV PREAKNESS S PIM 0516 9.50 1.0109 1.0787 1.00000 54.19 53.63 53.91 54.40 53.79 53.07 107.3 50.50 48.67 73.33 98.08 122.90 147.77 147.77 24.82 24.87
MINE THAT BIRD BORDERLAND DERBY SUN 0228 8.50 1.0230 1.0637 0.99983 55.15 53.32 54.23 55.00 55.46 51.48 106.6 51.74 47.82 72.40 97.17 122.09 147.12 147.32 24.92 25.03
MINE THAT BIRD SUNLAND DERBY SUN 0329 9.00 1.0891 1.0027 0.99985 56.43 52.68 54.56 57.80 53.93 48.94 105.4 53.54 45.55 70.83 96.89 123.55 150.69 150.89 26.66 27.14
MINE THAT BIRD KENTUCKY DERBY CD 0502 10.00 0.9692 1.1206 0.99990 52.57 54.10 53.33 52.54 52.62 55.63 108.2 48.59 50.60 74.96 99.07 122.99 146.76 146.16 23.92 23.77
MINE THAT BIRD PREAKNESS S PIM 0516 9.50 0.9817 1.1003 0.99991 54.61 54.38 54.50 53.76 56.25 54.15 108.8 50.20 49.12 73.14 97.01 120.77 144.44 144.44 23.76 23.67
MINER'S ESCAPE MSW GP 0314 9.00 1.0028 1.0881 0.99982 54.10 52.96 53.53 53.46 55.41 51.83 105.9 51.08 49.18 73.85 98.55 123.26 147.99 146.99 24.71 24.73
MINER'S ESCAPE FEDERICO TESIO S PIM 0502 9.00 1.0134 1.0771 0.99993 54.25 53.18 53.71 54.10 54.54 52.11 106.4 50.98 48.67 73.40 98.24 123.17 148.17 148.17 24.93 25.00
MR. HOT STUFF MDN SA 0201 8.00 0.9779 1.0986 1.00000 54.74 55.47 55.11 54.38 55.46 56.20 110.9 49.36 48.67 72.36 95.87 119.25 142.52 143.72 23.38 23.27
MR. HOT STUFF SHAM S SA 0228 9.00 0.9949 1.0888 0.99998 54.59 54.29 54.44 54.31 55.14 53.99 108.6 50.27 48.73 72.95 97.12 121.27 145.39 146.59 24.14 24.12
MR. HOT STUFF SANTA ANITA DERBY SA 0404 9.00 0.9730 1.1093 0.99992 54.22 54.35 54.29 53.19 56.35 54.48 108.7 49.88 49.56 73.52 97.27 120.86 144.32 145.52 23.59 23.46
MR. HOT STUFF KENTUCKY DERBY CD 0502 10.00 1.0227 1.0761 0.99852 54.79 51.36 53.07 52.97 58.26 47.92 102.7 53.35 49.19 74.46 99.93 125.55 151.29 150.69 25.62 25.74
SUMMER BIRD MDN OP 0319 8.50 1.0061 1.0845 1.00000 53.76 53.55 53.65 53.99 53.32 53.34 107.1 50.19 49.00 73.69 98.42 123.19 147.99 146.79 24.77 24.80
SUMMER BIRD ARKANSAS DERBY OP 0411 9.00 1.0142 1.0704 1.00000 54.86 54.17 54.52 55.22 54.20 53.49 108.3 50.65 47.97 72.38 96.90 121.51 146.18 144.98 24.61 24.68
SUMMER BIRD KENTUCKY DERBY CD 0502 10.00 1.0123 1.0844 0.99995 53.54 52.61 53.08 53.44 53.72 51.68 105.2 50.90 49.41 74.48 99.66 124.92 150.23 149.63 25.26 25.32

Pace Parameter Leaders:

3Fr (fastest) TE (highest) %E (lowest) 12f (fastest) Adj12f (fastest) 12fTT (fastest) 12fLQ (fastest) PF (best)
MR. HOT STUFF MR. HOT STUFF MINE THAT BIRD MR. HOT STUFF DUNKIRK MR. HOT STUFF MR. HOT STUFF MINE THAT BIRD (-57)
MINE THAT BIRD CHARITABLE MAN MR. HOT STUFF DUNKIRK CHARITABLE MAN  CHOCOLATE CANDY  CHOCOLATE CANDY  CHOCOLATE CANDY (-55)
CHOCOLATE CANDY  DUNKIRK CHOCOLATE CANDY  CHARITABLE MAN  BRAVE VICTORY MINE THAT BIRD MINE THAT BIRD MR. HOT STUFF (-51)
BRAVE VICTORY CHOCOLATE CANDY  SUMMER BIRD BRAVE VICTORY MR. HOT STUFF BRAVE VICTORY BRAVE VICTORY CHARITABLE MAN (-48)
DUNKIRK MINE THAT BIRD CHARITABLE MAN MINE THAT BIRD FLYING PRIVATE DUNKIRK DUNKIRK DUNKIRK (-45)
              FLYING PRIVATE (-45)

Definition of Pace Terms: 

Slope is a measure of fatigue.  It parallels the increase in time required to negotiate an additional distance.  The higher the number, the steeper the slope, indicating that the fatigue rate is greater.  Slopes will generally fall between 0.9 (slow early-fast late) and 1.2 (fast early-slow late).

Int., or Intercept is a measure of early speed and is inversely related to the slope.  In this case, the lower the intercept, the greater the relative early speed.  Intercepts also will usually fall between 0.9 (fast early) and 1.2 (slow early).

CC, or Correlation Coefficient is a measure of how efficiently a horse's speed is used throughout the whole race.  Perfect efficiency is equal to a CC of 1.00000.  Any value below 1.00000 represents less than ideal efficiency, although it is almost always greater than 0.99900.  The very best horses continually display CC's above 0.99990 while lower quality horses may not display CCs that high.

The remaining terms are part of the "Sartin Methodology" for describing pace characteristics as discussed by Tom Brohamer ("Modern Pace Handicapping", by Tom Brohamer, William Morrow and Company, Inc,. New York, 1991):

EP (Early Pace) is velocity in fps (feet-per-second) to the second call.

SP (Sustained Pace) is the average of early pace and the final fraction, thus relating a horse's speed to the second call and his ability to finish.

AP (Average Pace) is the average  of EP and SP.

1Fr (First Fraction), 2Fr (Second Fraction) and 3Fr (Third Fraction) are the average velocities in fps between each of the calls.

TE (Total Energy) is the sum of EP and 3Fr.  It is the total available energy based on current conditions of distance, surface and track as well as inherent ability.

%E (Percent Early) is a relative measure of energy used through the second call (EP/TE).  Speed types display %E figures significantly higher than off-the-pace types, although the absolute numbers are greatly affected by the distance of a race.