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2009 Pre-Derby Analysis Back to the Derby Starters page Advice: Coming from off the pace, he just failed to hold on to the lead in the Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Futurity at two, losing by a neck. After a series of poor efforts in allowance and stakes company he reemerged with a big winning run in the Grade 2 Lexington Stakes. His PFs are mid-level but his closing pace figures are solid. A potential negative is that his best races have been on the synthetic surfaces at Arlington Park and Keeneland while he failed to menace in his only start on dirt in the listed Sunland Derby. He may be rounding into form but there are doubts about his highest performance level and his ability to handle the surface at Churchill Downs. Atomic Rain: He has only a maiden win in six lifetime starts but finished a respectable fourth beaten just under five lengths in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial Stakes while racing just behind the pace. He has never really come close to winning a stakes race in three tries, all graded. His last PF is his best, although not of pre-Derby quality. His projected pace characteristics for a mile and a quarter are among the poorest in the field. Overall, he has the look of a non-contender and could finish near the back. Chocolate Candy: One of four Dual Qualifiers in the field based on a juvenile campaign that included a win in the Real Quiet Stakes and a good closing third in the Grade 1 Cashcall Futurity. He is a strong finisher and among the top five in projected turn time and last quarter mile time. His speed figures have continually improved during his three-year-old campaign and his best PF matches the standard established by the vast majority of previous Derby winners in their prep races. However, he has never raced outside of California or on other than a synthetic surface. The record over the last couple of years of Derby starters without proven dirt ability has not been good. As with any switch in surface, we can speculate but we won’t know until he does it. If one gives him the benefit of the doubt, he is a legitimate threat and his pedigree seems well suited to the distance. Desert Party: One of two horses prepped in Dubai, Desert Party was an excellent two-year-old with an impressive win in the Grade 2 Sanford Stakes at Saratoga followed by a very poor effort in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes won by Vineyard Haven, a colt he had defeated in the Sanford. Taken to Dubai for his three-year-old preparation, he won two straight races before losing to stablemate Regal Ransom by a close and narrowing margin at nine furlongs. Although translating form in Dubai to the US is difficult, Desert Party’s Racing Post ratings don’t match up well with the better American-raced horses. His pace characteristics don’t compare well either. If we accept these data at face value, he doesn’t appear to be a serious threat. Whether or not to accept the data is a difficult decision. The fact that previous highly regarded Derby starters coming from Dubai off strong performances have not fared well may be significant. He would benefit from an off track. Dunkirk: With only three lifetime starts, none as a two-year-old, and despite flashes of brilliance in his races, Dunkirk doesn’t seem quite fast enough nor ideally suited to a mile and a quarter. His pace characteristics are solid but a cut below Derby winner standards. There is no doubt he has an abundance of talent; however, inexperience and a large field could compromise his chances. I believe he will have a tough time against equally talented colts that have more seasoning in graded stakes. Flying Private: It is hard to consider this colt a serious contender based on his very modest PFs and his poorly suited pace characteristics. One win in ten starts is not encouraging. Barring a miraculous trip and a complete race meltdown, Flying Private is a candidate to finish last. Friesan Fire: A good second tier two-year-old, Friesan Fire ran an even third in the Grade 2 Futurity Stakes and a more distant fourth in the following Grade 3 Nashua Stakes, both in New York. Moving to the mid-South in preparation for the Triple Crown races he has run off three consecutive graded stakes wins, the first at a mile and the others at a mile and a sixteenth, all at the Fair Grounds, and all with improving PFs. In fact, his latest PF exceeds the prep race standard of previous Derby winners. His pace characteristics are adequate, although his projected turn time and last quarter mile time are about average in this field. A wet track should enhance his prospects. If he can overcome the effects of a seven-week layoff and the absence of a nine-furlong prep race, both of which are historical negatives, he will be a candidate for the win. General Quarters: After breaking his maiden first time out, it took him eight starts to win again, which he did in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay. That was followed by a disappointing fifth to Musket Man in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby and a solid, rebounding win in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes on Keeneland’s polytrack. His best PFs on both dirt and a synthetic surface are slightly below the prep race standard of previous Derby winners, as are his pace characteristics. In addition, recent Blue Grass Stakes form on the synthetic surface, apart from Derby winner Street Sense which had already demonstrated championship form on dirt, has not translated well to good efforts in the Derby. Nevertheless, with a few breaks and a good mid-pack trip, he seems genuine enough possibly to get a piece at the end. Hold Me Back: He was a good closing second in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes following a win in the Grade 2 Lane’s End Stakes; however, his PFs in those races are average at best in this field. His projected turn time and last quarter mile time are outstanding, although earned on synthetic surfaces. In fact, his only effort on dirt has been a fifth place, 14-length defeat in the Grade two Remsen Stakes going nine furlongs at two. By contrast, he has achieved three wins and a second from four starts on synthetic surfaces. With questions about his speed over a distance of ground and his suitability to dirt, I can’t consider him a major contender. I Want Revenge (Scratched): Another Dual Qualifier based on a fast-closing nose defeat to Pioneerof the Nile in the Grade 1 Cashcall Futurity, I Want Revenge has displayed uniformly high class at three with improving PFs in successive races, the latest exceeding the standard established by previous Derby winners in their prep races. In addition, he has made the switch from synthetic surfaces to dirt as well as anyone could have hoped for. Unlike others, however, and based on the history of his PFs, I don’t place as much emphasis on the surface switch as I do general development and increasing distance. His late-race pace figures place him near the top of this field and his pedigree seems ideal for classic distances. If not the race favorite, he is certainly among the top three contenders. Join in the Dance: One of the few forwardly placed speed horses in the field, he will have a say in the early pace, although his past performances suggest he won’t be around at the end. His only win to date from eight starts is a wire-to-wire maiden romp as a two-year-old at five and a half furlongs. Neither his PFs nor his pace characteristics indicate he is a legitimate threat. Mine That Bird: Canada’s 2008 juvenile champion, Mine That Bird, a gelding, has done little to build on that achievement, entering the Derby off a sophomore campaign including two straight losses in listed stakes at Sunland Park. His PFs and pace figures are mostly at the bottom of the field and he is another candidate to finish last. Mr. Hot Stuff: He broke his maiden in his fifth start (second in 2009) and followed up with consecutive come-from-behind thirds in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes and Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. His best PF is just below previous Derby winner standards but his closing pace figures are very near the top of the field and his pedigree is well suited to a mile and a quarter. The biggest question is his ability to successfully make the switch from California’s all-weather surface to the dirt at Churchill Downs. If he can, he would be a candidate for at least the exotics with a favorable trip and a less than top effort from the main contenders. Musket Man: With five wins and a third in six starts (3-0-1 in four stakes), this stalking runner is the epitome of consistency. His PFs, however, don’t compare favorably with others in the field and his pace characteristics are average at best. In addition, his pedigree is far from ideal for classic distances. A nice colt, he is probably not a major threat. Nowhere To Hide: He has a maiden win in eight starts and has never placed in a stakes race. His best PF is near the the bottom in the field and his pace characteristics aren't much better. He has regressed with increasing distance. He should be considered another candidate to finish last. Papa Clem: Like I Want Revenge, Papa Clem has made the transition from California’s all-weather surface to dirt in good style with a second and a first in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and Arkansas Derby following a second in the Grade 2 Robert Lewis Stakes. He prefers to race on or near the lead but doesn’t have an especially strong closing move despite his late effort at Oaklawn Park where he passed a tiring Old Fashioned as the rest of the field was gaining on him. His PFs are solid and consistent but sub par as well. At a mile and a quarter he should be prominent in the early stages but is unlikely to be close at the finish. Pioneerof the Nile: Another Dual Qualifier as the result of his win in the Grade 1 Cashcall Futurity, Pioneerof the Nile has run off four straight victories in graded stakes. In his latest, the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, he earned a PF exceeding the pre-Derby standard of previous Derby winners. Overall, his pace characteristics are the best in the field and it appears he can race successfully on or near the lead or from the middle of the pack. The synthetic surface to dirt switch is a consideration, although his breeding suggests that dirt ability should not be an issue. Again, we won’t know until he does it. However, two other starters that made the switch from Santa Anita’s all-weather surface, I Want Revenge and Papa Clem, did so without a problem. I’ll give Pioneerof the Nile the benefit of the doubt and state the obvious. He is a major contender. Regal Ransom: The other Dubai-prepped colt, Regal Ransom, raced twice at two and was next to last in the Grade 1 Norfolk Stakes following his maiden win. In three starts in Dubai he has two seconds and a first, defeating stablemate Desert Party in the Group 2 nine-furlong UAE Derby. Like Desert Party, however, his Racing Post ratings are significantly lower than those of his American-raced rivals. Also like Desert Party his pace figures are not encouraging, again with the warning about translating Dubai form to the US. He does, however, have a pedigree that screams out ten furlongs despite his preferred racing style of being on the pace. He could be dangerous if he gets loose on the lead, although it is an unlikely scenario. Summer Bird: With only three lifetime starts, the main Derby qualification of this come-from-behind colt is a solid closing third in the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby, more the result of the leaders backing up than a powerful late move. Neither his lack of experience, nor his modest PFs nor his uninspiring pace characteristics suggest he is a contender. West Side Bernie: He is another Dual Qualifier following a third in the Grade 3 Kentucky Cup Juvenile and a second in the Grade 3 Delta Jackpot Stakes. His three-year-old campaign has been spotty with a third in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes, a dismal sixth in the Grade 2 Lane’s End Stakes and a hugely improved second in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial. His last PF is just marginally below pre-Derby standards but his pace characteristics are only average. Strong speed influence Gilded Time as his broodmare sire is not particularly comforting. He is notionally the weakest of the Dual Qualifiers, although history has shown that lightly regarded Dual Qualifiers often step up under the unique conditions of the Derby (e.g., Ferdinand, Unbridled, Sea Hero and Thunder Gulch). He's not a prime contender, but sometimes overlooked Dual Qualifiers will surprise. 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