The raiding party from Ballydoyle looks as formidable as ever with six of a field of 13 at the five-day stage. Fame And Glory looks a smashing type for the Derby and has built on his exploits as a two-year-old, shouldering a Group 1 penalty and running out the winner of the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes on his return to the racetrack this season from the Jim Bolger-trained Fergus McIver and John Oxx’s Mourayan. He then went on to beat that same pair in dismissive style off a fast pace in the Group 2 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial (a race won in the past by the likes of Sinndar, Galileo and High Chaparral, who went on to follow up at Epsom) back at Leopardstown – supplanting the 2,000 Guineas winner at the head of the Derby market in the process. After winning his maiden at Navan last season the son of Montjeu went on to take the Group 1 Criterium Saint-Cloud from his stablemates Drumbeat and Age Of Aquarius. Out of a Shirley Heights mare, the unbeaten colt appears at the top of our table (the opposite end to Sea The Stars) with a negative CD and a DI of below 1. This means the trip is well within his scope, while he can also lay-up with speediest types, quicken in an instant off a fast pace and is as fluid and balanced as you could wish for. If you were to imagine a horse with the attributes to win the premier Classic it would be embodied in this colt.

Rip Van Winkle ran a highly promising ‘Derby trial’ in the 2,000 Guineas when finishing fourth, reportedly a week or two short of ideal condition. The Galileo colt followed up his maiden win at the Curragh with Group 3 victory at Leopardstown last term. He was subsequently a beaten favourite at Group 1 level when seventh of 13 in the Dewhurst, when held up, albeit only a couple of lengths adrift of the winner. Rip Van Winkle’s preparation was interrupted for several weeks due to an over-reach followed by a stone bruise just prior to the 2,000 Guineas. His true strengths are likely to be seen at middle distances. Whether he fully gets the Epsom trip or just short of it remains to be seen, but he is highly regarded at Ballydoyle and seems sure to be in the mix to finish thereabouts.

There was a lot to like about the way in which Black Bear Island claimed the Dante Stakes. The brother of Derby winner High Chaparral picked up readily in the closing stages under forceful driving from Colm O'Donoghue to deny his front-running stablemate Freemantle in a good quality renewal. Erhaab, Benny The Dip, North Light, Motivator and Authorized all won the Dante before going on to claim the Derby, making it the best pointer for the big event. The son of Sadler’s Wells is out of a Darshaan mare and has close to the perfect Dosage profile for the Derby, with a DI of just below 1 and a CD of exactly zero. He is perhaps the best equipped to deny his own stablemate Fame And Glory. Freemantle was a 10-length winner of a Tipperary maiden last term, albeit on the third time of asking. He has been scratched from the race and will wait for Royal Ascot.

Lingfield Derby Trial winner Age Of Aquarius out-battled the Mick Channon-trained Montaff and Henry Cecil’s Father Time on his reappearance this term after being headed and like so many of O’Brien’s should improve again for his initial outing. The Galileo colt won on his debut at Dundalk last term before being thrown into Group 1 company in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud, where he finished a close up fourth to stablemates Fame And Glory and Drumbeat. In terms of stamina aptitude he looks the right type to be lining up in a Derby.

Also engaged in the race for Ballydoyle are the first two in the Chester Vase Golden Sword and Masterofthehorse, the latter coming in for significant support in the ante-post market in recent days, on the back of showing eye-catching progress from his last race in the build up to the main event. Sandown’s Group 3 Bet365 Classic Trial third Malibu Bay is scratched from the race and headed for the French Derby.

Coolmore spokesman Richard Henry has confirmed that the six jockeys forming the Ballydoyle team in the Derby are: Johnny Murtagh, Seamus Heffernan, Colm O’Donoghue, Pat Smullen, Richard Hughes and Ryan Moore. At the time of writing precise riding plans have yet to be confirmed. Johnny Murtagh seems certain to ride either Rip Van Winkle (who he chose over subsequent Irish 2,000 Guineas winner Mastercraftsman at Newmarket) or Fame And Glory. While he has declared a "soft spot" for Rip Van Winkle, he has also stated that he will let his head rule his heart when deciding.

Gan Amhras ran a splendid 2,000 Guineas – especially so for a colt with his stamina potential – to finish a close up third. Jim Bolger’s charge was also placed third behind Mourayan on his debut and split Soul City and his stablemate Intense Focus in the valuable Goffs Million at the Curragh. The Galileo colt is out of a Darshaan mare and features close to the top of our table for stamina potential. With the class to be placed in a Guineas and stamina aplenty he should give the favourite something to think about for last year’s winning trainer.

Godolphin’s Kite Wood was two lengths adrift of Black Bear Island in fifth in the Dante on his reappearance this term and won twice over a mile as a two-year-old in a Doncaster maiden and in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes at Ascot, when trained by Michael Jarvis. He should handle the 12 furlongs at Epsom fine, despite reservations to the contrary from some quarters and should not be entirely dismissed from calculations.

Debussy won the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom for trainer John Gosden from hot Oaks contender Midday. He was subsequently placed third behind the O’Brien pair, Golden Sword and Masterofthehorse, in the Chester Vase. The Diesis colt apparently acts on the track and is out of a Singspiel mare, so stamina should not prove an issue, featuring with Fame And Glory at the top of our table.

The Mick Channon-trained Montjeu colt Montaff has close form with Age Of Aquarius in the Lingfield Derby Trial, but may be a little flatterred by his proximity to the O’Brien charge – although the fourth in that race, Alwaary, went on to win the Listed Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood for John Gosden and is now aimed at the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot.

William Haggas trained Shaamit to win the Derby in 1996 and South Easter, Chester’s Dee Stakes winner, would be the first to represent the handler since then. Bernard Kantor, managing director of Derby sponsor Investec, is a joint owner of the colt.

The Dosage system helped us to select the winner and first four, in this column last year, and the winner and first five the year before. New Approach was taken to outperform his earlier efforts at a mile over middle distances last season (New Approach has a perfect blend of speed and stamina), while Authorized was the confident selection in 2007, conforming to a profile that was a virtual blueprint for the race (Authorized has all the credentials for victory at Epsom).

This year’s selection is every bit as strong as the previous two.

The best matches to the required stamina for this year’s race are: Fame And Glory (DI 0.65), Debussy (0.70), Gan Amhras (0.76), Masterofthehorse (0.77), Golden Sword (0.80), Black Bear Island (0.82), Age Of Aquarius (0.89), Crowded House (1.04), Kite Wood (1.09) and Rip Van Winkle (1.10).

The Irish appear to have a stranglehold on this year’s renewal, dominating both in terms of numbers (eight of the 13 left in at the time of writing) and prominence in the betting. I expect Fame And Glory to go in on rails. The best of his stablemates may prove to be Black Bear Island and Rip Van Winkle, while Masterofthehorse has come in for significant support in recent days and will stay the trip very well. Jim Bolger’s Gan Amhras should ensure that Ballydoyle don’t have everything their own way. Sea The Stars, who appears at the opposite end of our table to Fame And Glory, has proven to be very classy but may fail for stamina in this critical test.

Verdict

1) Fame And Glory
2) Black Bear Island
3) Gan Amhras
4) Rip Van Winkle
5) Masterofthehorse