|
Leading 2010 Kentucky Derby Contenders
|
The
following table displays the leading 2010 Kentucky Derby
contenders. The information provided includes the contender's EFH (Experimental Free
Handicap) ranking; the
sire; the sire's AWD (average
winning distance in North American open stakes); the sire's AWD in dirt
and AWS races only; the sire's %C (percentage of progeny open stakes wins at
the classic distances of 9 1/2, 10 and 12 furlongs); the sire's sire
line; the dam's sire; the dam's sire's AWD; the dam's sire's AWD in dirt
and AWS races only; the dam's sire's %C; the dam's sire line; the bloodline
cross (P = Phalaris, NP = non-Phalaris); Dosage figures and known connections.
An asterisk (*) after the AWD indicates an AWD sample size of less than
five. Post position (PP) and morning line odds (M/L) will be added
after the entries are drawn.
Note: Horses
identified as elite two-year-olds of 2009 and with a DI of 4.00
or less are shown in maroon. These include the two-year-old leaders
by Experimental Free Handicap ranking, Timeform ranking of American-raced
two-year-olds, The Thoroughbred Times Performance Rates, Beyer Speed
Figures, Bloodstock Research BRIS Ratings, Thoroughbred Daily News (TDN)
Rising Stars and PFs in graded races.
|
| |
PP |
|
M/L |
|
|
CONTENDER |
|
|
|
|
SIRE |
AWD |
|
DIRT |
|
%C |
|
SIRE
LINE |
|
DAM'S
SIRE |
AWD |
|
DIRT |
|
%C |
|
DAM'S
SIRE LINE |
BLOODLINES |
|
|
|
|
|
DP |
|
|
|
|
|
|
DI |
|
|
CD |
|
|
RIDER |
TRAINER |
OWNER |
| |
1 |
|
3-1 |
|
 |
LOOKIN
AT LUCKY |
|
126 |
|
|
SMART
STRIKE |
8.32 |
|
8.05 |
|
13.5 |
|
RAISE
A NATIVE |
|
BELONG
TO ME |
8.04 |
|
8.04 |
|
0.0 |
|
NORTHERN
DANCER |
P/P |
|
10 |
- |
4 |
- |
12 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
|
|
3.33 |
|
|
0.92 |
|
|
GOMEZ |
BAFFERT |
PEGRAM,
WATSON & WEITMAN |
| |
2 |
|
10-1 |
|
 |
ICE
BOX |
|
|
|
|
PULPIT |
8.36 |
|
8.31 |
|
4.6 |
|
BOLD
RULER |
|
TABASCO
CAT |
8.50 |
|
8.58 |
|
10.0 |
|
NORTHERN
DANCER |
P/P |
|
7 |
- |
6 |
- |
11 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
|
|
3.36 |
|
|
0.83 |
|
|
LEZCANO |
ZITO |
LAPENTA |
| |
3 |
|
12-1 |
|
 |
NOBLE'S
PROMISE |
|
124 |
|
|
CUVEE |
7.50 |
* |
7.50 |
* |
0.0 |
|
RAISE
A NATIVE |
|
CLEVER
TRICK |
7.36 |
|
7.01 |
|
4.5 |
|
NEARCTIC |
P/P |
|
11 |
- |
4 |
- |
7 |
- |
2 |
- |
0 |
|
|
3.36 |
|
|
1.00 |
|
|
MARTINEZ |
MCPEEK |
CHASING
DREAMS RACING 2008 LLC |
| |
4 |
|
15-1 |
|
 |
SUPER
SAVER |
|
122 |
|
|
MARIA'S
MON |
8.21 |
|
7.97 |
|
6.8 |
|
RAISE
A NATIVE |
|
A.P.
INDY |
8.52 |
|
8.34 |
|
6.7 |
|
BOLD
RULER |
P/P |
|
7 |
- |
7 |
- |
14 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
|
|
3.00 |
|
|
0.75 |
|
|
BOREL |
PLETCHER |
WINSTAR
FARM LLC |
| |
5 |
|
30-1 |
|
 |
LINE
OF DAVID |
|
|
|
|
LION
HEART |
6.81 |
|
6.81 |
|
0.0 |
|
NORTHERN
DANCER |
|
CAPOTE |
7.63 |
|
7.30 |
|
5.9 |
|
BOLD
RULER |
P/P |
|
7 |
- |
1 |
- |
8 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
|
|
3.00 |
|
|
0.94 |
|
|
BEJARANO |
SADLER |
THRASH
& THRASH |
| |
6 |
|
30-1 |
|
 |
STATELY
VICTOR |
|
|
|
|
GHOSTZAPPER |
9.00 |
* |
9.00 |
* |
0.0 |
|
NORTHERN
DANCER |
|
DYNAFORMER |
8.35 |
|
8.54 |
|
2.1 |
|
TURN-TO |
P/P |
|
3 |
- |
2 |
- |
11 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
|
|
1.91 |
|
|
0.50 |
|
|
A.
GARCIA |
MAKER |
CONWAY
& CONWAY |
| |
7 |
|
30-1 |
|
 |
AMERICAN
LION |
|
113 |
|
|
TIZNOW |
8.47 |
|
8.40 |
|
6.3 |
|
IN
REALITY |
|
STORM
CAT |
7.70 |
|
7.35 |
|
0.0 |
|
NORTHERN
DANCER |
NP/P |
|
6 |
- |
3 |
- |
7 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
|
|
3.57 |
|
|
0.94 |
|
|
FLORES |
HARTY |
WINSTAR
FARM LLC |
| |
8 |
|
50-1 |
|
 |
DEAN'S
KITTEN |
|
113 |
|
|
KITTEN'S
JOY |
8.38 |
* |
8.75 |
* |
0.0 |
|
NORTHERN
DANCER |
|
IDE |
9.00 |
* |
9.00 |
* |
0.0 |
|
RAISE
A NATIVE |
P/P |
|
2 |
- |
1 |
- |
9 |
- |
2 |
- |
0 |
|
|
1.15 |
|
|
0.21 |
|
|
ALBARADO |
MAKER |
RAMSEY
& RAMSEY |
| |
9 |
|
50-1 |
|
 |
MAKE
MUSIC FOR ME |
|
118 |
|
|
BERNSTEIN |
7.41 |
|
7.02 |
|
0.0 |
|
NORTHERN
DANCER |
|
CARSON
CITY |
7.68 |
|
7.56 |
|
7.9 |
|
RAISE
A NATIVE |
P/P |
|
12 |
- |
5 |
- |
9 |
- |
2 |
- |
0 |
|
|
3.31 |
|
|
0.96 |
|
|
ROSARIO |
BARBA |
JOHNSON
& JOHNSON |
| |
10 |
|
20-1 |
|
 |
PADDY
O'PRADO |
|
100 |
|
|
EL
PRADO |
8.18 |
|
7.83 |
|
7.7 |
|
NORTHERN
DANCER |
|
PRIZED |
8.73 |
|
8.00 |
* |
9.1 |
|
TURN-TO |
P/P |
|
2 |
- |
4 |
- |
12 |
- |
4 |
- |
0 |
|
|
1.20 |
|
|
0.18 |
|
|
DESORMEAUX |
ROMANS |
DONEGAL
RACING |
| |
11 |
|
10-1 |
|
 |
DEVIL
MAY CARE (f) |
|
116 |
|
|
MALIBU
MOON |
7.83 |
|
7.87 |
|
5.0 |
|
BOLD
RULER |
|
RED
RANSOM |
8.71 |
|
8.00 |
|
9.7 |
|
TURN-TO |
P/P |
|
7 |
- |
6 |
- |
17 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
|
|
2.53 |
|
|
0.67 |
|
|
VELAZQUEZ |
PLETCHER |
GLENCREST
FARM LLC |
| |
12 |
|
12-1 |
|
 |
CONVEYANCE |
|
|
|
|
INDIAN
CHARLIE |
7.29 |
|
7.49 |
|
4.9 |
|
NASRULLAH |
|
HOLY
BULL |
7.80 |
|
7.74 |
|
0.0 |
|
QUESTIONNAIRE |
P/NP |
|
4 |
- |
1 |
- |
3 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
|
|
4.33 |
|
|
1.13 |
|
|
M.
GARCIA |
BAFFERT |
ZABEEL
RACING INTERNATIONAL LLC |
| |
13 |
|
15-1 |
|
 |
JACKSON
BEND |
|
116 |
|
|
HEAR
NO EVIL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
RAISE
A NATIVE |
|
TABASCO
CAT |
8.50 |
|
8.58 |
|
10.0 |
|
NORTHERN
DANCER |
P/P |
|
9 |
- |
4 |
- |
5 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
|
|
6.20 |
|
|
1.22 |
|
|
M.
SMITH |
ZITO |
LAPENTA
& BREI |
| |
14 |
|
20-1 |
|
 |
MISSION
IMPAZIBLE |
|
101 |
|
|
UNBRIDLED'S
SONG |
7.89 |
|
8.00 |
|
3.4 |
|
RAISE
A NATIVE |
|
HOLD
YOUR PEACE |
7.72 |
|
7.70 |
|
2.0 |
|
PRINCEQUILLO |
P/NP |
|
7 |
- |
12 |
- |
7 |
- |
0 |
- |
2 |
|
|
4.09 |
|
|
0.79 |
|
|
MARAGH |
PLETCHER |
TWIN
CREEKS RACING STABLES LLC |
| |
15 |
|
30-1 |
|
 |
DISCREETLY
MINE |
|
116 |
|
|
MINESHAFT |
8.50 |
|
8.50 |
|
0.0 |
|
BOLD
RULER |
|
PRIVATE
ACCOUNT |
8.25 |
|
8.17 |
|
7.7 |
|
DAMASCUS |
P/NP |
|
8 |
- |
8 |
- |
15 |
- |
0 |
- |
1 |
|
|
2.76 |
|
|
0.69 |
|
|
CASTELLANO |
PLETCHER |
ROBSHAM
STABLES LLC |
| |
16 |
|
10-1 |
|
 |
AWESOME
ACT |
|
117 |
|
|
AWESOME
AGAIN |
8.43 |
|
8.32 |
|
6.9 |
|
NORTHERN
DANCER |
|
MR.
PROSPECTOR |
8.01 |
|
7.82 |
|
5.6 |
|
RAISE
A NATIVE |
P/P |
|
15 |
- |
3 |
- |
14 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
|
|
3.57 |
|
|
1.03 |
|
|
LEPAROUX |
NOSEDA |
ROY,
VINERY STABLES |
| |
17 |
|
12-1 |
|
 |
DUBLIN |
|
117 |
|
|
AFLEET
ALEX |
7.75 |
* |
7.75 |
* |
0.0 |
|
RAISE
A NATIVE |
|
STORM
BIRD |
8.13 |
|
7.84 |
|
7.3 |
|
NORTHERN
DANCER |
P/P |
|
3 |
- |
1 |
- |
6 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
|
|
2.33 |
|
|
0.70 |
|
|
THOMPSON |
LUKAS |
BAKER
& MACK |
| |
18 |
|
50-1 |
|
 |
BACKTALK |
|
115 |
|
|
SMARTY
JONES |
6.67 |
* |
6.67 |
* |
0.0 |
|
RAISE
A NATIVE |
|
AFFIRMED |
8.55 |
|
7.98 |
|
9.4 |
|
RAISE
A NATIVE |
P/P |
|
6 |
- |
2 |
- |
7 |
- |
1 |
- |
0 |
|
|
2.56 |
|
|
0.81 |
|
|
MENA |
AMOSS |
GOLD
MARK FARM LLC |
| |
19 |
|
50-1 |
|
 |
HOMEBOYKRIS |
|
117 |
|
|
ROMAN
RULER |
8.25 |
* |
8.25 |
* |
0.0 |
|
RAISE
A NATIVE |
|
SALUTELY |
8.00 |
* |
8.00 |
* |
0.0 |
|
RIBOT |
P/NP |
|
6 |
- |
3 |
- |
4 |
- |
0 |
- |
1 |
|
|
3.67 |
|
|
0.93 |
|
|
DOMINGUEZ |
R.
DUTROW JR |
LAZZINNARO
ET AL |
| |
20 |
|
5-1 |
|
 |
SIDNEY'S
CANDY |
|
|
|
|
CANDY
RIDE |
7.72 |
|
7.70 |
|
4.5 |
|
RAISE
A NATIVE |
|
STORM
CAT |
7.70 |
|
7.35 |
|
0.0 |
|
NORTHERN
DANCER |
P/P |
|
2 |
- |
2 |
- |
5 |
- |
1 |
- |
0 |
|
|
1.86 |
|
|
0.50 |
|
|
TALAMO |
SADLER |
CRAIG
FAMILY TRUST |
(f) indicates a filly
POSSIBLE INDICATORS RELEVANT TO CLASSIC PERFORMANCE:
Dual Qualifiers:
AWESOME ACT
DEVIL MAY CARE
DISCREETLY MINE
DUBLIN
HOMEBOYKRIS
LOOKIN AT LUCKY
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME
NOBLE'S PROMISE
SUPER SAVER
|
other Elite 2007
juveniles:
BACKTALK
|
DI>4 Horses:
CONVEYANCE
JACKSON BEND
MISSION IMPAZIBLE |
Horses With Dominant
Classicity:
DEAN'S KITTEN
DEVIL MAY CARE
DUBLIN
PADDY O' PRADO
STATELY VICTOR
|
sire/ Broodmare Sire AWDs>=8.00f On Dirt:
DEAN'S KITTEN
DISCREETLY MINE
HOMEBOYKRIS
ICE BOX
LOOKIN AT LUCKY
STATELY VICTOR
|
PF -55 or Better
At Three:
AMERICAN LION
SUPER SAVER
MISSION IMPAZIBLE
|
Top
five Pace Parameter Horses
(# Of Categories):
SEE PACE PARAMETER SECTION HERE
|
horses
with <16 dosage points:
CONVEYANCE
DEAN'S kITTEN
HOMEBOYKRIS
SIDNEY'S CANDY
|
no
starts or unplaced on dirt:
DEAN'S KITTEN
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME
SIDNEY'S CANDY
STATELY VICTOR
|
Out-of-the-money
last start:
DISCREETLY MINE
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME
|
prior
good race at churchill downs:
MISSION IMPAZIBLE
SUPER SAVER
|
derby-winning
rider or trainer:
CONVEYANCE
HOMEBOYKRIS
ICE BOX
JACKSON BEND
LOOKIN AT LUCKY
PADDY O'PRADO
SUPER SAVER
|
CONTENDER PFs:
| HORSE |
PF |
FIN |
DATE |
RACE |
GR |
AGE/SEX |
TRK |
DIST |
SURF |
TRK
COND |
| American
Lion |
-10 |
1st |
11-21-09 |
Hollywood
Prevue S |
G3 |
2yo |
Hol |
7.00 |
Synth |
fst |
| American
Lion |
-64 |
3RD |
02-13-10 |
ROBERT
B. LEWIS S |
G2 |
3YO |
SA |
8.50 |
Synth |
fst |
| AMERICAN
LION |
-36 |
4TH |
03-13-10 |
SAN
FELIPE S |
G2 |
3YO |
SA |
8.50 |
Synth |
fst |
| American
Lion |
-32 |
1st |
04-03-10 |
illinois
derby |
g3 |
3YO |
haw |
9.00 |
dirt |
fst |
| AWESOME
ACT |
100 |
9TH |
10-17-09 |
JUMEIRAH
DEWHURST S |
ENG-1 |
2YO |
NMK |
7.00 |
TURF |
GD |
| AWESOME
ACT |
-9 |
4TH |
11-07-09 |
BC
JUVENILE TURF |
G2 |
2YO |
SA |
8.00 |
TURF |
FM |
| AWESOME
ACT |
-37 |
1st |
03-06-10 |
GOTHAM
S |
G3 |
3YO |
AQU |
8.50 |
Dirt |
fst |
| awesome
act |
-37 |
3rd |
04-30-10 |
wood
memorial s |
g1 |
3YO |
aqu |
9.00 |
DIRT |
fst |
| Backtalk |
-26 |
1st |
07-03-09 |
Bashford
Manor S |
G3 |
2yo |
CD |
6.00 |
Dirt |
fst |
| Backtalk |
-27 |
1st |
07-30-09 |
Sanford
S |
G2 |
2yo |
Sar |
6.00 |
Dirt |
fst |
| backtalk |
24 |
3rd |
04-03-10 |
illinois
derby |
g3 |
3YO |
haw |
9.00 |
dirt |
fst |
| CONVEYANCE |
-37 |
1ST |
01-16-09 |
SAN
RAFAEL S |
G3 |
3YO |
SA |
8.00 |
Synth |
fst |
| CONVEYANCE |
-41 |
1ST |
02-20-10 |
southwest
s |
G3 |
3YO |
op |
8.00 |
dirt |
fst |
| CONVEYANCE |
-19 |
2ND |
03-28-10 |
SUNLAND
DERBY |
G3 |
3YO |
SUN |
9.00 |
Dirt |
fst |
| Dean's
kitten |
-2 |
4TH |
09-09-09 |
WITH
ANTICIPATION S |
g3 |
2YO |
SAR |
8.5 |
turf |
fm |
| DEAN'S
KITTEN |
-2 |
6TH |
11-07-09 |
BC
JUVENILE TURF |
G2 |
2YO |
SA |
8.00 |
TURF |
FM |
| Dean's
kitten |
-43 |
2nd |
03-06-10 |
palm
beach s |
g3 |
3yo |
gp |
9.00 |
turf |
fm |
| Dean's
kitten |
-46 |
1st |
03-27-10 |
lane's
end s |
g2 |
3yo |
tp |
9.00 |
sYnth |
fst |
| Devil
May Care |
-24 |
1st |
10-10-09 |
Frizette
S |
G1 |
2yof |
Bel |
8.00 |
Dirt |
fst |
| Devil
May Care |
-51 |
1st |
03-20-10 |
Bonnie
Miss S |
G2 |
3yof |
GP |
9.00 |
Dirt |
fst |
| Discreetly
Mine |
-5 |
2nd |
09-19-09 |
Futurity
S |
G2 |
2yo |
Bel |
7.00 |
Dirt |
fst |
| Discreetly
Mine |
-23 |
2nd |
10-10-09 |
Champagne
S |
G1 |
2yo |
Bel |
8.00 |
Dirt |
fst |
| Discreetly
Mine |
-41 |
1ST |
02-20-10 |
RISEN
STAR S |
G2 |
3YO |
Bel |
8.00 |
Dirt |
fst |
| Discreetly
Mine |
-51 |
4TH |
03-27-10 |
LOUISIANA
DERBY |
G2 |
3YO |
FG |
9.00 |
Dirt |
fst |
| Dublin |
-44 |
1st |
09-07-09 |
Hopeful
S |
G1 |
2yo |
Sar |
7.00 |
Dirt |
fst |
| Dublin |
-12 |
5TH |
10-10-09 |
CHAMPAGNE
S |
G1 |
2yo |
BEL |
8.00 |
Dirt |
fst |
| Dublin |
8 |
7TH |
11-01-09 |
IROQUOIS
S |
G3 |
2yo |
CD |
8.00 |
Dirt |
fst |
| dublin |
-37 |
2nd |
02-20-10 |
southwest
s |
G3 |
3YO |
op |
8.00 |
dirt |
fst |
| DUBLIN |
-36 |
3RD |
03-13-10 |
REBEL
S |
G2 |
3YO |
OP |
8.50 |
DIRT |
fst |
| DUBLIN |
-50 |
3RD |
04-10-10 |
ARKANSAS
DERBY |
G1 |
3yo |
OP |
9.00 |
DIRT |
fst |
| Homeboykris |
-31 |
1st |
10-10-09 |
Champagne
S |
G1 |
2yo |
Bel |
8.00 |
Dirt |
fst |
| HOMEBOYKRIS |
-14 |
2ND |
02-27-10 |
GULFSTREAM
pARK ALLOWANCE |
ALW |
3YO |
GP |
8.00 |
DIRT |
FST |
| ICE
BOX |
-13 |
5TH |
02-20-10 |
FOUNTAIN
OF YOUTH S |
G2 |
3YO |
GP |
9.00 |
DIRT |
fst |
| ICE
BOX |
-50 |
1st |
03-20-10 |
FLORIDA
DERBY |
G1 |
3YO |
GP |
9.00 |
DIRT |
FST |
| JACKSON
BEND |
-41 |
2ND |
01-23-10 |
HOLY
BULL S |
G3 |
3YO |
GP |
8.00 |
Dirt |
fst |
| JACKSON
BEND |
-27 |
2ND |
02-20-10 |
FOUNTAIN
OF YOUTH S |
G2 |
3YO |
GP |
9.00 |
DIRT |
fst |
| jackson
bend |
-37 |
2nd |
04-30-10 |
wood
memorial s |
g1 |
3YO |
aqu |
9.00 |
DIRT |
fst |
| LINE
OF DAVID |
-52 |
1st |
04-10-10 |
ARKANSAS
DERBY |
G1 |
3yo |
OP |
9.00 |
DIRT |
fst |
| Lookin
At Lucky |
-8 |
1st |
08-09-09 |
Best
Pal S |
G2 |
2yo |
Dmr |
6.50 |
Synth |
fst |
| Lookin
At Lucky |
-2 |
1st |
09-07-09 |
Del
Mar Futurity |
G1 |
2yo |
Dmr |
7.00 |
Synth |
fst |
| Lookin
At Lucky |
-32 |
1st |
10-04-09 |
Norfolk
S |
G1 |
2yo |
SA |
8.50 |
Synth |
fst |
| Lookin
At Lucky |
-31 |
2nd |
11-07-09 |
BC
Juvenile |
G1 |
2yo |
SA |
8.50 |
Synth |
fst |
| Lookin
At Lucky |
-27 |
1ST |
12-19-09 |
CASHCALL
FUTURITY |
G1 |
2yo |
HOL |
8.50 |
Synth |
fst |
| Lookin
At Lucky |
-37 |
1ST |
03-13-10 |
REBEL
S |
G2 |
3YO |
OP |
8.50 |
DIRT |
fst |
| lookin
at lucky |
-12 |
3rd |
04-03-10 |
santa
anita derby |
g1 |
3YO |
SA |
9.00 |
Synth |
fst |
| Make
Music for Me |
-3 |
2nd |
08-09-09 |
Best
Pal S |
G2 |
2yo |
Dmr |
6.50 |
Synth |
fst |
| Make
Music for Me |
3 |
2nd |
09-07-09 |
Del
Mar Futurity |
G1 |
2yo |
Dmr |
7.00 |
Synth |
fst |
| MAKE
MUSIC FOR ME |
-22 |
3RD |
12-19-09 |
CASHCALL
FUTURITY |
G1 |
2yo |
HOL |
8.50 |
Synth |
fst |
| MAKE
MUSIC FOR ME |
-47 |
1ST |
03-06-10 |
PASADENA
S |
L |
3YO |
SA |
8.00 |
TURF |
FM |
| MAKE
MUSIC FOR ME |
-13 |
6TH |
04-10-10 |
TOYOTA
BLUE GRASS S |
G1 |
3YO |
KEE |
9.00 |
SYNTH |
FST |
| Mission
Impazible |
20 |
3rd |
04-30-09 |
Kentucky
Juvenile S |
G3 |
2yo |
CD |
5.00 |
Dirt |
gd |
| MISSION
IMPAZIBLE |
-20 |
4TH |
02-20-10 |
southwest
s |
G3 |
3YO |
op |
8.00 |
dirt |
fst |
| Mission
Impazible |
-56 |
1ST |
03-27-10 |
LOUISIANA
DERBY |
G2 |
3YO |
FG |
9.00 |
Dirt |
FST |
| Noble's
Promise |
-27 |
1st |
10-10-09 |
Breeders'
Futurity |
G1 |
2yo |
Kee |
8.50 |
Synth |
fst |
| Noble's
Promise |
-29 |
3rd |
11-07-09 |
BC
Juvenile |
G1 |
2yo |
SA |
8.50 |
Synth |
fst |
| NOBLE'S
PROMISE |
-24 |
2ND |
12-19-09 |
CASHCALL
FUTURITY |
G1 |
2yo |
HOL |
8.50 |
Synth |
fst |
| NOBLE'S
PROMISE |
-37 |
2ND |
03-13-10 |
REBEL
S |
G2 |
3YO |
OP |
8.50 |
DIRT |
fst |
| PADDY
O'PRADO |
-5 |
3RD |
09-04-09 |
WITH
ANTICIPATION S |
G3 |
2yo |
SAR |
8.50 |
TURF |
FM |
| PADDY
O'PRADO |
-53 |
1ST |
03-06-10 |
PALM
BEACH S |
G3 |
3YO |
GP |
9.00 |
TURF |
FM |
| PADDY
O'PRADO |
-32 |
2ND |
04-10-10 |
TOYOTA
BLUE GRASS S |
G1 |
3YO |
KEE |
9.00 |
SYNTH |
FST |
| SIDNEY'S
CANDY |
-58 |
1ST |
02-15-10 |
SAN
VICENTE S |
G2 |
3YO |
SA |
7.00 |
Synth |
fst |
| SIDNEY'S
CANDY |
-54 |
1ST |
03-13-10 |
SAN
FELIPE S |
G2 |
3YO |
SA |
8.50 |
Synth |
fst |
| SIDNEY'S
CANDY |
-36 |
1ST |
04-03-10 |
santa
anita derby |
g1 |
3YO |
SA |
9.00 |
Synth |
fst |
| STATELY
VICTOR |
-49 |
1ST |
04-10-10 |
TOYOTA
BLUE GRASS S |
G1 |
3YO |
KEE |
9.00 |
SYNTH |
FST |
| SUPER
SAVER |
-21 |
4TH |
10-10-09 |
Champagne
S |
G1 |
2yo |
Bel |
8.00 |
Dirt |
fst |
| super
saver |
-60 |
1st |
11-28-09 |
kentucky
jockey club s |
G2 |
2yo |
cd |
8.50 |
Dirt |
fst |
| SUPER
SAVER |
-59 |
3RD |
03-13-10 |
TAMPA
BAY DERBY |
G3 |
3YO |
TAM |
8.50 |
DIRT |
fst |
| SUPER
SAVER |
-51 |
2ND |
04-10-10 |
ARKANSAS
DERBY |
G1 |
3yo |
OP |
9.00 |
DIRT |
fst |
Figures in red under
PF are Racing Post Ratings (RPR) for
foreign performances.
As a rough comparison,
RPR 100 = PF -15
RPR 105 = PF -26
RPR 110 = PF -38
RPR 115 = PF -48
RPR 120 = PF -63
RPR 125 = PF -75
RPR 130 = PF -87
CONTENDER
PACE PARAMETERS:
Below is presented a variety of pace
parameters for Derby contenders in 2010 prep races at a mile or
more on dirt or a synthetic surface. In addition to the horse, race, track, date and distance, we have
included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from
linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times. These
are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the
linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f (unadjusted), the predicted
turn time in a 10f race (10fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in
a 10f race (10fLQ). Following 10f is Adj10f which is the projected
10f time adjusted for the differences in track speed between the track
on which the prep race was run and Churchill Downs. The various pace parameters are described here.
Note that because of unresolved questions related
to the pace characteristics associated with all-weather surfaces, pace
parameters for races on those surfaces are shown in italics in
order to differentiate them from those for races on dirt. At this
point, it is left to the reader to decide the significance of these
figures on the two different types of surface. The final table of
Derby starters also will differentiate between pace parameters on
dirt and synthetic surfaces. Once the Derby entries are drawn, the
rank order of all starters in each category will replace the current tables of
pace parameter leaders, some of which may not be entered.
The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since
1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are
displayed in the following table. The Adj10f number is missing
because the comparative data is unavailable for the races used in
developing the guideline figures. The significance of Adj10f is
left to the reader.
| 3Fr |
TE |
%E |
10f |
10fTT |
10fLQ |
| >=51.56 |
>=107.3 |
<=52.08 |
<=122.34 |
<=24.94 |
<=25.33 |
Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline
figures. Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline
figures. Races for each
horse are listed in chronological order with the latest race last.
| HORSE |
RACE |
TRK |
DATE |
DIST |
SLOPE |
INT |
CC |
EP |
SP |
AP |
1FR |
2FR |
3FR |
TE |
%E |
4F |
6F |
8F |
9F |
10F |
ADJ10F |
10FTT |
10FLQ |
| AMERICAN
LION |
ROBERT
B. LEWIS S (G2) |
SA |
0213 |
8.50 |
1.0285 |
1.0527 |
1.00000 |
55.62 |
54.58 |
55.10 |
56.17 |
54.54 |
53.54 |
109.2 |
50.93 |
46.98 |
71.28 |
95.82 |
108.16 |
120.54 |
122.14 |
24.54 |
24.72 |
| AMERICAN
LION |
SAN
FELIPE S (G2) |
SA |
0313 |
8.50 |
0.9985 |
1.0869 |
0.99987 |
53.81 |
54.95 |
54.38 |
54.34 |
52.80 |
56.08 |
109.9 |
48.97 |
48.76 |
73.09 |
97.41 |
109.56 |
121.72 |
123.32 |
24.32 |
24.31 |
| AMERICAN
LION |
ILLINOIS
DERBY (G3) |
HAW |
0403 |
9.00 |
1.0056 |
1.0851 |
0.99989 |
54.10 |
53.10 |
53.60 |
53.66 |
55.00 |
52.11 |
106.2 |
50.94 |
49.03 |
73.71 |
98.44 |
110.81 |
123.20 |
121.60 |
24.73 |
24.76 |
| AWESOME
ACT |
GOTHAM
S (G3) |
AQUI |
0306 |
8.50 |
1.0397 |
1.0494 |
0.99999 |
55.01 |
53.45 |
54.23 |
55.79 |
53.57 |
51.88 |
106.9 |
51.46 |
47.35 |
72.17 |
97.33 |
110.01 |
122.75 |
123.15 |
25.16 |
25.41 |
| AWESOME
ACT |
WOOD
MEMORIAL S (G1) |
AQU |
0403 |
9.00 |
0.9967 |
1.0956 |
0.99988 |
53.68 |
52.97 |
53.33 |
53.05 |
54.95 |
52.27 |
105.9 |
50.69 |
49.62 |
74.33 |
99.02 |
111.35 |
123.68 |
123.48 |
24.68 |
24.66 |
| BACKTALK |
SPORTSMAN'S
PARADISE S |
DED |
0226 |
8.00 |
1.0172 |
1.0805 |
0.99987 |
53.51 |
51.95 |
52.73 |
53.43 |
53.67 |
50.38 |
103.9 |
51.50 |
49.31 |
74.49 |
99.81 |
112.52 |
125.25 |
123.85 |
25.32 |
25.43 |
| BACKTALK |
ILLINOIS
DERBY (G3) |
HAW |
0403 |
9.00 |
1.0139 |
1.0868 |
0.99967 |
53.42 |
51.58 |
52.50 |
52.74 |
54.79 |
49.74 |
103.2 |
51.76 |
49.79 |
75.11 |
100.55 |
113.30 |
126.08 |
124.48 |
25.44 |
25.53 |
| CONVEYANCE |
SAN
RAFAEL S (G3) |
SA |
0116 |
8.00 |
0.9944 |
1.0864 |
0.99999 |
54.55 |
55.00 |
54.77 |
54.55 |
54.54 |
55.46 |
110.0 |
49.59 |
48.43 |
72.48 |
96.48 |
108.47 |
120.45 |
122.05 |
24.00 |
23.97 |
| CONVEYANCE |
SOUTHWEST
S (G3) |
OP |
0220 |
8.00 |
1.0657 |
1.0220 |
0.99991 |
56.09 |
53.24 |
54.66 |
57.14 |
54.09 |
50.38 |
106.5 |
52.67 |
46.09 |
71.00 |
96.48 |
109.38 |
122.38 |
122.78 |
25.47 |
25.90 |
| CONVEYANCE |
SUNLAND
DERBY (G3) |
SUN |
0328 |
9.00 |
1.0114 |
1.0713 |
0.99995 |
55.15 |
54.22 |
54.68 |
55.00 |
55.46 |
53.28 |
108.4 |
50.88 |
47.88 |
72.15 |
96.52 |
108.73 |
120.96 |
122.16 |
24.37 |
24.44 |
| DEAN'S
KITTEN |
LANE'S
END S (G2) |
TP |
0327 |
9.00 |
1.0017 |
1.0854 |
0.99986 |
54.48 |
53.49 |
53.98 |
53.93 |
55.57 |
52.51 |
107.0 |
50.91 |
48.81 |
73.27 |
97.73 |
109.97 |
122.21 |
123.01 |
24.47 |
24.48 |
| DEVIL
MAY CARE |
SILVERBULLETDAY
S (G3) |
FG |
0220 |
8.50 |
1.0840 |
1.0223 |
0.99888 |
55.17 |
49.95 |
52.56 |
55.27 |
54.95 |
44.74 |
99.9 |
55.22 |
47.31 |
73.42 |
100.29 |
113.95 |
127.74 |
127.74 |
26.87 |
27.45 |
| DEVIL
MAY CARE |
BONNIE
MISS S (G2) |
GP |
0320 |
9.00 |
1.0217 |
1.0604 |
0.99980 |
55.81 |
53.94 |
54.88 |
55.51 |
56.41 |
52.08 |
107.9 |
51.72 |
47.37 |
71.69 |
96.18 |
108.48 |
120.81 |
120.81 |
24.49 |
24.63 |
| DISCREETLY
MINE |
RISEN
STAR S (G2) |
FG0 |
0220 |
8.50 |
1.0194 |
1.0728 |
1.00000 |
53.95 |
53.25 |
53.60 |
54.32 |
53.22 |
52.55 |
106.5 |
50.66 |
48.58 |
73.45 |
98.48 |
111.05 |
123.64 |
123.64 |
25.03 |
25.15 |
| DISCREETLY
MINE |
LOUISIANA
DERBY (G2) |
F0G |
0327 |
9.00 |
1.0302 |
1.0590 |
0.99995 |
54.86 |
53.32 |
54.09 |
55.13 |
54.33 |
51.77 |
106.6 |
51.46 |
47.78 |
72.56 |
97.59 |
110.18 |
122.81 |
122.81 |
25.03 |
25.22 |
| DUBLIN |
SOUTHWEST
S (G3) |
OP |
0220 |
8.00 |
1.0144 |
1.0691 |
0.99991 |
55.24 |
53.82 |
54.53 |
55.25 |
55.22 |
52.39 |
107.6 |
51.34 |
47.84 |
72.19 |
96.65 |
108.91 |
121.20 |
121.60 |
24.46 |
24.55 |
| DUBLIN |
REBEL
S (G2) |
OP |
0313 |
8.50 |
1.0119 |
1.0737 |
0.99993 |
54.81 |
53.75 |
54.28 |
54.73 |
54.97 |
52.68 |
107.5 |
50.99 |
48.18 |
72.63 |
97.16 |
109.46 |
121.78 |
122.18 |
24.54 |
24.61 |
| DUBLIN |
ARKANSAS
DERBY (G1) |
OP |
0410 |
9.00 |
1.0303 |
1.0545 |
0.99996 |
55.45 |
53.89 |
54.67 |
55.84 |
54.71 |
52.33 |
107.8 |
51.44 |
47.29 |
71.82 |
96.60 |
109.06 |
121.56 |
121.96 |
24.78 |
24.97 |
| HOMEBOYKRIS |
HOLY
BULL S (G3) |
GP |
0123 |
8.00 |
1.0845 |
1.0039 |
0.99962 |
56.90 |
52.59 |
54.74 |
57.89 |
55.00 |
48.28 |
105.2 |
54.08 |
45.38 |
70.44 |
96.23 |
109.34 |
122.57 |
122.57 |
25.79 |
26.35 |
| HOMEBOYKRIS |
ALW |
GP |
0227 |
8.00 |
1.0015 |
1.0806 |
0.99997 |
54.55 |
55.00 |
54.78 |
54.81 |
54.02 |
55.46 |
110.0 |
49.59 |
48.26 |
72.43 |
96.62 |
108.72 |
120.81 |
120.81 |
24.19 |
24.19 |
| ICE
BOX |
ALW |
GP |
0118 |
| |