Dosage: Pedigree & Performance

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2010 Kentucky Derby Entries

    The following table displays the 2010 Kentucky Derby entries.  The information provided includes the post position, morning line odds, silks, name, EFH (Experimental Free Handicap) ranking; sire; sire's AWD (average winning distance in North American open stakes) for all surfaces; sire's AWD for dirt and AWS races only; sire's %C (percentage of progeny open stakes wins at the classic distances of 9 1/2, 10 and 12 furlongs); sire's sire line; dam's sire; dam's sire's AWD for all races; dam's sire's AWD for dirt and AWS races only; dam's sire's %C; the dam's sire line; bloodline cross (P = Phalaris, NP = non-Phalaris); Dosage figures and connections.  An asterisk (*) after the AWD indicates an AWD sample size of less than five.

Note: Horses identified as elite two-year-olds of 2009 and with a DI of 4.00 or less are shown in maroon.  These include the two-year-old leaders by Experimental Free Handicap ranking, Timeform ranking of American-raced two-year-olds, The Thoroughbred Times Performance Rates, Beyer Speed Figures, Bloodstock Research BRIS Ratings, Thoroughbred Daily News (TDN) Rising Stars and PFs in graded races.
          
  PP   M/L     CONTENDER         SIRE AWD   DIRT   %C   SIRE LINE   DAM'S SIRE AWD   DIRT   %C   DAM'S SIRE LINE BLOODLINES           DP             DI     CD     RIDER TRAINER OWNER
  1   3-1   LOOKIN AT LUCKY    126     SMART STRIKE 8.32   8.05   13.5   RAISE A NATIVE     BELONG TO ME 8.04   8.04   0.0   NORTHERN DANCER  P/P   10 - 4 - 12 - 0 - 0     3.33     0.92     GOMEZ BAFFERT PEGRAM, WATSON & WEITMAN
  2   10-1   ICE BOX         PULPIT  8.36    8.31    4.6   BOLD RULER   TABASCO CAT 8.50   8.58   10.0   NORTHERN DANCER P/P   7 - 6 - 11 - 0 - 0     3.36     0.83     LEZCANO ZITO LAPENTA
  3   12-1   NOBLE'S PROMISE    124     CUVEE 7.50 * 7.50 * 0.0   RAISE A NATIVE     CLEVER TRICK  7.36   7.01   4.5   NEARCTIC P/P   11 - 4 - 7 - 2 - 0     3.36     1.00     MARTINEZ  MCPEEK CHASING DREAMS RACING 2008 LLC
  4   15-1   SUPER SAVER   122     MARIA'S MON 8.21   7.97   6.8   RAISE A NATIVE   A.P. INDY 8.52   8.34   6.7   BOLD RULER P/P   7 - 7 - 14 - 0 - 0     3.00     0.75     BOREL PLETCHER WINSTAR FARM LLC
  5   30-1   LINE OF DAVID          LION HEART 6.81   6.81   0.0   NORTHERN DANCER    CAPOTE 7.63   7.30   5.9   BOLD RULER P/P   7 - 1 - 8 - 0 - 0     3.00     0.94     BEJARANO SADLER THRASH & THRASH
  6   30-1   STATELY VICTOR         GHOSTZAPPER 9.00 * 9.00 * 0.0   NORTHERN DANCER   DYNAFORMER 8.35   8.54   2.1   TURN-TO P/P   3 - 2 - 11 - 0 - 0     1.91     0.50     A. GARCIA MAKER CONWAY & CONWAY
  7     30-1   AMERICAN LION    113     TIZNOW 8.47   8.40   6.3   IN REALITY   STORM CAT 7.70   7.35   0.0   NORTHERN DANCER NP/P   6 - 3 - 7 - 0 - 0     3.57     0.94     FLORES HARTY WINSTAR FARM LLC
  8   50-1   DEAN'S KITTEN   113     KITTEN'S JOY 8.38 * 8.75 * 0.0   NORTHERN DANCER   IDE 9.00 * 9.00 * 0.0   RAISE A NATIVE P/P   2 - 1 - 9 - 2 - 0     1.15     0.21     ALBARADO MAKER RAMSEY & RAMSEY
  9   50-1   MAKE MUSIC FOR ME   118     BERNSTEIN 7.41   7.02   0.0   NORTHERN DANCER   CARSON CITY 7.68   7.56   7.9   RAISE A NATIVE P/P   12 - 5 - 9 - 2 - 0     3.31     0.96     ROSARIO BARBA JOHNSON & JOHNSON
  10   20-1   PADDY O'PRADO   100     EL PRADO 8.18   7.83   7.7   NORTHERN DANCER   PRIZED 8.73   8.00 * 9.1   TURN-TO P/P   2 - 4 - 12 - 4 - 0     1.20     0.18     DESORMEAUX ROMANS DONEGAL RACING
  11   10-1   DEVIL MAY CARE (f)   116     MALIBU MOON 7.83   7.87   5.0   BOLD RULER   RED RANSOM 8.71   8.00   9.7   TURN-TO P/P   7 - 6 - 17 - 0 - 0     2.53     0.67     VELAZQUEZ PLETCHER GLENCREST FARM LLC
  12   12-1   CONVEYANCE         INDIAN CHARLIE 7.29   7.49   4.9   NASRULLAH   HOLY BULL 7.80   7.74   0.0   QUESTIONNAIRE P/NP   4 - 1 - 3 - 0 - 0     4.33     1.13     M. GARCIA BAFFERT ZABEEL RACING INTERNATIONAL LLC
  13   15-1   JACKSON BEND    116     HEAR NO EVIL             RAISE A NATIVE   TABASCO CAT 8.50   8.58   10.0   NORTHERN DANCER P/P   9 - 4 - 5 - 0 - 0     6.20     1.22     M. SMITH ZITO LAPENTA & BREI
  14   20-1   MISSION IMPAZIBLE   101     UNBRIDLED'S SONG 7.89   8.00   3.4   RAISE A NATIVE   HOLD YOUR PEACE 7.72   7.70   2.0   PRINCEQUILLO P/NP   7 - 12 - 7 - 0 - 2     4.09     0.79     MARAGH PLETCHER TWIN CREEKS RACING STABLES LLC
  15   30-1   DISCREETLY MINE   116     MINESHAFT  8.50    8.50   0.0   BOLD RULER   PRIVATE ACCOUNT 8.25   8.17   7.7   DAMASCUS P/NP   8 - 8 - 15 - 0 - 1     2.76     0.69     CASTELLANO    PLETCHER ROBSHAM STABLES LLC
  16   10-1   AWESOME ACT   117     AWESOME AGAIN 8.43   8.32   6.9   NORTHERN DANCER   MR. PROSPECTOR 8.01   7.82   5.6   RAISE A NATIVE P/P   15 - 3 - 14 - 0 - 0     3.57     1.03     LEPAROUX NOSEDA ROY, VINERY STABLES
  17   12-1   DUBLIN    117     AFLEET ALEX 7.75 * 7.75 * 0.0   RAISE A NATIVE   STORM BIRD 8.13   7.84   7.3   NORTHERN DANCER P/P   3 - 1 - 6 - 0 - 0     2.33     0.70     THOMPSON LUKAS BAKER & MACK
  18   50-1   BACKTALK    115     SMARTY JONES 6.67 * 6.67 *  0.0   RAISE A NATIVE   AFFIRMED 8.55   7.98   9.4   RAISE A NATIVE P/P   6 - 2 - 7 - 1 - 0     2.56     0.81     MENA AMOSS GOLD MARK FARM LLC
  19   50-1   HOMEBOYKRIS    117     ROMAN RULER 8.25 * 8.25 * 0.0   RAISE A NATIVE   SALUTELY 8.00 * 8.00 * 0.0   RIBOT P/NP   6 - 3 - 4 - 0 - 1     3.67     0.93     DOMINGUEZ R. DUTROW JR   LAZZINNARO ET AL
  20   5-1   SIDNEY'S CANDY         CANDY RIDE 7.72   7.70   4.5   RAISE A NATIVE   STORM CAT 7.70   7.35   0.0   NORTHERN DANCER P/P   2 - 2 - 5 - 1 - 0     1.86     0.50     TALAMO SADLER CRAIG FAMILY TRUST
 
(f) indicates a filly

POSSIBLE INDICATORS RELEVANT TO CLASSIC PERFORMANCE:

Dual Qualifiers:
 AWESOME ACT
DEVIL MAY CARE
DISCREETLY MINE
DUBLIN
HOMEBOYKRIS
LOOKIN AT LUCKY
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME
NOBLE'S PROMISE
SUPER SAVER
    		 other Elite 2009 juveniles:
BACKTALK

 DI>4 Horses:
CONVEYANCE
JACKSON BEND
MISSION IMPAZIBLE
Horses With Dominant Classicity:  
 DEAN'S KITTEN
DEVIL MAY CARE
DUBLIN
PADDY O' PRADO
STATELY VICTOR  
 		sire/ Broodmare Sire AWDs>=8.00f On Dirt:  
 DEAN'S KITTEN
DISCREETLY MINE
HOMEBOYKRIS
ICE BOX
LOOKIN AT LUCKY
STATELY VICTOR
  		PF -55 or Better At Three:
 SUPER SAVER
MISSION IMPAZIBLE
Top five Pace Parameter Horses:
SEE PACE PARAMETER SECTION BELOW


  		horses with <16 dosage points:
 CONVEYANCE
DEAN'S kITTEN
 HOMEBOYKRIS
SIDNEY'S CANDY
  		no starts or unplaced on dirt:
DEAN'S KITTEN
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME
SIDNEY'S CANDY
STATELY VICTOR
 
Out-of-the-money last start:
 DISCREETLY MINE
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME
 		prior good race at churchill downs:
MISSION IMPAZIBLE
SUPER SAVER
 derby-winning rider or trainer:
 CONVEYANCE
HOMEBOYKRIS
ICE BOX 
 JACKSON BEND
LOOKIN AT LUCKY
PADDY O'PRADO
SUPER SAVER
   

CONTENDER PFs:

HORSE PF FIN DATE    RACE GR AGE/SEX TRK DIST SURF TRK COND
American Lion -10 1st 11-21-09 Hollywood Prevue S G3 2yo Hol 7.00 Synth fst
American Lion -64 3RD 02-13-10 ROBERT B. LEWIS S G2 3YO SA 8.50 Synth fst
AMERICAN LION -36 4TH 03-13-10 SAN FELIPE S G2 3YO SA 8.50 Synth fst
American Lion -32 1st 04-03-10 illinois derby g3 3YO haw 9.00 dirt fst
AWESOME ACT 100 9TH 10-17-09 JUMEIRAH DEWHURST S ENG-1 2YO NMK 7.00 TURF GD
AWESOME ACT -9 4TH 11-07-09 BC JUVENILE TURF G2 2YO SA 8.00 TURF FM
AWESOME ACT -37 1st 03-06-10 GOTHAM S G3 3YO AQU 8.50 Dirt fst
awesome act -37 3rd 04-30-10 wood memorial s g1 3YO aqu 9.00 DIRT fst
Backtalk -26 1st 07-03-09 Bashford Manor S G3 2yo CD 6.00 Dirt fst
Backtalk -27 1st 07-30-09 Sanford S G2 2yo Sar 6.00 Dirt fst
Backtalk -24 4TH 09-07-09 Hopeful S G1 2yo Sar 7.00 Dirt fst
BACKTALK 13 8TH 10-10-09 Breeders' Futurity G1 2yo Kee 8.50 Synth fst
Backtalk -19 1ST 02-26-10 SPORTSMAN'S PARADISE S L 3YO DED 8.00 Dirt SY
backtalk 24 3rd 04-03-10 illinois derby g3 3YO haw 9.00 dirt fst
CONVEYANCE -37 1ST 01-16-09 SAN RAFAEL S G3 3YO SA 8.00 Synth fst
CONVEYANCE -41 1ST 02-20-10 southwest s G3 3YO op 8.00 dirt fst
CONVEYANCE -19 2ND 03-28-10 SUNLAND DERBY G3 3YO SUN 9.00 Dirt fst
Dean's kitten -2 4TH 09-09-09 WITH ANTICIPATION S g3 2YO SAR 8.50 turf fm
DEAN'S KITTEN 157 5th 10-04-09 pilgrim s l 2YO bel 8.00 dirt gd
DEAN'S KITTEN 0 1st 10-26-09 vision s l 2YO bel 8.50 TURF FM
DEAN'S KITTEN -2 6TH 11-07-09 BC JUVENILE TURF G2 2YO SA 8.00 TURF FM
DEAN'S KITTEN 22 6th 11-28-09 grand canyon h L 2yo cd 8.50 TURF FM
DEAN'S KITTEN -10 4TH 02-07-10 HALLANDALE BEACH S L 3YO GP 8.50 TURF FM
Dean's kitten -43 2nd 03-06-10 palm beach s g3 3yo gp 9.00 turf fm
Dean's kitten -46 1st 03-27-10 lane's end s g2 3yo tp 9.00 sYnth fst
Devil May Care -24 1st 10-10-09 Frizette S G1 2yof Bel 8.00 Dirt fst
Devil May Care 19 11TH 11-06-09 BC JUVENILE FILLIES G1 2yof SA 8.50 SYNTH fst
Devil May Care 5 5TH 02-20-10 SILVERBULLETDAY S G3 3YOF FG 8.50 Dirt fst
Devil May Care -51 1st 03-20-10 Bonnie Miss S G2 3yof GP 9.00 Dirt fst
Discreetly Mine -5 2nd 09-19-09 Futurity S G2 2yo Bel 7.00 Dirt fst
Discreetly Mine -23 2nd 10-10-09 Champagne S G1 2yo Bel 8.00 Dirt fst
Discreetly Mine -25 4TH 01-09-10 SPECTACULAR BID S L 3YO GP 6.00 Dirt SY
Discreetly Mine -41 1ST 02-20-10 RISEN STAR S G2 3YO Bel 8.00 Dirt fst
Discreetly Mine -51 4TH 03-27-10 LOUISIANA DERBY G2 3YO FG 9.00 Dirt fst
Dublin -44 1st 09-07-09 Hopeful S G1 2yo Sar 7.00 Dirt fst
Dublin -12 5TH 10-10-09 CHAMPAGNE S G1 2yo BEL 8.00 Dirt fst
Dublin 8 7TH 11-01-09 IROQUOIS S G3 2yo CD 8.00 Dirt fst
dublin -37 2nd 02-20-10 southwest s G3 3YO op 8.00 dirt fst
DUBLIN -36 3RD 03-13-10 REBEL S G2 3YO OP 8.50 DIRT fst
DUBLIN -50 3RD 04-10-10 ARKANSAS DERBY G1 3yo OP 9.00 DIRT fst
Homeboykris -31 1st 10-10-09 Champagne S G1 2yo Bel 8.00 Dirt fst
Homeboykris -2 5TH 11-28-09 REMSEN S G2 2yo AQU 9.00 Dirt fst
HOMEBOYKRIS -14 2ND 02-27-10 GULFSTREAM pARK ALLOWANCE ALW 3YO GP 8.00 DIRT FST
ICE BOX -13 5TH 02-20-10 FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S G2 3YO GP 9.00 DIRT fst
ICE BOX -50 1st 03-20-10 FLORIDA DERBY G1 3YO GP 9.00 DIRT FST
JACKSON BEND -13 1st 07-11-09 FRANK GOMEZ MEMORIAL S l 2yo crc 6.00 Dirt fst
JACKSON BEND -3 1st 08-08-09 dr. fager s r 2yo crc 6.00 Dirt fst
JACKSON BEND -28 1st 08-29-09 affirmed s r 2yo crc 7.00 DIRT fst
jackson bend -48 1st 10-17-09 in reality s r 2yo crc 8.50 DIRT fst
JACKSON BEND -41 2ND 01-23-10 HOLY BULL S G3 3YO GP 8.00 Dirt fst
JACKSON BEND -27 2ND 02-20-10 FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S G2 3YO GP 9.00 DIRT fst
jackson bend -37 2nd 04-30-10 wood memorial s g1 3YO aqu 9.00 DIRT fst
LINE OF DAVID -52 1st 04-10-10 ARKANSAS DERBY G1 3yo OP 9.00 DIRT fst
Lookin At Lucky -8 1st 08-09-09 Best Pal S G2 2yo Dmr 6.50 Synth fst
Lookin At Lucky -2 1st 09-07-09 Del Mar Futurity G1 2yo Dmr 7.00 Synth fst
Lookin At Lucky -32 1st 10-04-09 Norfolk S G1 2yo SA 8.50 Synth fst
Lookin At Lucky -31 2nd 11-07-09 BC Juvenile G1 2yo SA 8.50 Synth fst
Lookin At Lucky -27 1ST 12-19-09 CASHCALL FUTURITY G1 2yo HOL 8.50 Synth fst
Lookin At Lucky -37 1ST 03-13-10 REBEL S G2 3YO OP 8.50 DIRT fst
lookin at lucky -12 3rd 04-03-10 santa anita derby g1 3YO SA 9.00 Synth fst
Make Music for Me -3 2nd 08-09-09 Best Pal S G2 2yo Dmr 6.50 Synth fst
Make Music for Me 3 2nd 09-07-09 Del Mar Futurity G1 2yo Dmr 7.00 Synth fst
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME -22 3RD 12-19-09 CASHCALL FUTURITY G1 2yo HOL 8.50 Synth fst
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME -8 4TH 10-10-09 Breeders' Futurity G1 2yo Kee 8.50 Synth fst
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME -47 1ST 03-06-10 PASADENA S L 3YO SA 8.00 TURF FM
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME -13 6TH 04-10-10 TOYOTA BLUE GRASS S G1 3YO KEE 9.00 SYNTH FST
Mission Impazible 20 3rd 04-30-09 Kentucky Juvenile S G3 2yo CD 5.00 Dirt gd
MISSION IMPAZIBLE -20 4TH 02-20-10 southwest s G3 3YO op 8.00 dirt fst
Mission Impazible -56 1ST 03-27-10 LOUISIANA DERBY G2 3YO FG 9.00 Dirt FST
Noble's Promise 3 1st 09-26-09 FITZ DIXON JR. MEMORIAL JUVENILE S L 2yo PID 6.50 Synth fst
Noble's Promise -27 1st 10-10-09 Breeders' Futurity G1 2yo Kee 8.50 Synth fst
Noble's Promise -29 3rd 11-07-09 BC Juvenile G1 2yo SA 8.50 Synth fst
NOBLE'S PROMISE -24 2ND 12-19-09 CASHCALL FUTURITY G1 2yo HOL 8.50 Synth fst
NOBLE'S PROMISE -37 2ND 03-13-10 REBEL S G2 3YO OP 8.50 DIRT fst
NOBLE'S PROMISE -31 5TH 04-10-10 ARKANSAS DERBY G1 3yo OP 9.00 DIRT fst
PADDY O'PRADO -5 3RD 09-04-09 WITH ANTICIPATION S G3 2yo SAR 8.50 TURF FM
PADDY O'PRADO -53 1ST 03-06-10 PALM BEACH S G3 3YO GP 9.00 TURF FM
PADDY O'PRADO  -32 2ND 04-10-10 TOYOTA BLUE GRASS S G1 3YO KEE 9.00 SYNTH FST
SIDNEY'S CANDY -58 1ST 02-15-10 SAN VICENTE S G2 3YO SA 7.00 Synth fst
SIDNEY'S CANDY -54 1ST 03-13-10 SAN FELIPE S G2 3YO SA 8.50 Synth fst
SIDNEY'S CANDY -36 1ST 04-03-10 santa anita derby g1 3YO SA 9.00 Synth fst
STATELY VICTOR  3 6TH 10-10-09 Breeders' Futurity G1 2yo Kee 8.50 Synth fst
STATELY VICTOR  -49 1ST 04-10-10 TOYOTA BLUE GRASS S G1 3YO KEE 9.00 SYNTH FST
SUPER SAVER -21 4TH 10-10-09 Champagne S G1 2yo Bel 8.00 Dirt fst
super saver -60 1st 11-28-09 kentucky jockey club s G2 2yo cd 8.50 Dirt fst
SUPER SAVER -59 3RD 03-13-10 TAMPA BAY DERBY G3 3YO TAM 8.50 DIRT fst
SUPER SAVER -51 2ND 04-10-10 ARKANSAS DERBY G1 3yo OP 9.00 DIRT fst
    
Figures in red under PF are Racing Post Ratings (RPR) for foreign performances.
As a rough comparison,
RPR 100 = PF -15
RPR 105 = PF -26
RPR 110 = PF -38
RPR 115 = PF -48
RPR 120 = PF -63
RPR 125 = PF -75
RPR 130 = PF -87

Figures in green under PF are estimated from Beyer Speed Figures.

CONTENDER PACE PARAMETERS:
    
Below is presented a variety of pace parameters for Derby contenders in 2010 prep races at a mile or more on dirt or a synthetic surface.  In addition to the horse, race, track, date and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 10f race (10fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race (10fLQ).  Following 10f is Adj10f which is the projected 10f time adjusted for the differences in track speed between the track on which the prep race was run and Churchill Downs.  The various pace parameters are described here.

Note that because of unresolved questions related to the pace characteristics associated with all-weather surfaces, pace parameters for races on those surfaces are shown in italics in order to differentiate them from those for races on dirt.  It is left to the reader to decide the significance of these figures on the two different types of surface.

The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are displayed in the following table.  The Adj10f number is missing because the comparative data is unavailable for the races used in developing the guideline figures.  The significance of Adj10f is left to the reader.

3Fr TE %E 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
>=51.56 >=107.3 <=52.08 <=122.34 <=24.94 <=25.33

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures.  Races for each horse are listed in chronological order with the latest race last.

HORSE RACE TRK DATE DIST SLOPE INT CC EP SP AP 1FR 2FR 3FR TE %E 4F 6F 8F 9F 10F ADJ10F 10FTT 10FLQ
AMERICAN LION ROBERT B. LEWIS S (G2) SA 0213 8.50 1.0285 1.0527 1.00000 55.62 54.58 55.10 56.17 54.54 53.54 109.2 50.93 46.98 71.28 95.82 108.16 120.54 122.14 24.54 24.72
AMERICAN LION SAN FELIPE S (G2) SA 0313 8.50 0.9985 1.0869 0.99987 53.81 54.95 54.38 54.34 52.80 56.08 109.9 48.97 48.76 73.09 97.41 109.56 121.72 123.32 24.32 24.31
AMERICAN LION ILLINOIS DERBY (G3) HAW 0403 9.00 1.0056 1.0851 0.99989 54.10 53.10 53.60 53.66 55.00 52.11 106.2 50.94 49.03 73.71 98.44 110.81 123.20 121.60 24.73 24.76
AWESOME ACT GOTHAM S (G3) AQUI 0306 8.50 1.0397 1.0494 0.99999 55.01 53.45 54.23 55.79 53.57 51.88 106.9 51.46 47.35 72.17 97.33 110.01 122.75 123.15 25.16 25.41
AWESOME ACT WOOD MEMORIAL S (G1) AQU 0403 9.00 0.9967 1.0956 0.99988 53.68 52.97 53.33 53.05 54.95 52.27 105.9 50.69 49.62 74.33 99.02 111.35 123.68 123.48 24.68 24.66
BACKTALK SPORTSMAN'S PARADISE S DED 0226 8.00 1.0172 1.0805 0.99987 53.51 51.95 52.73 53.43 53.67 50.38 103.9 51.50 49.31 74.49 99.81 112.52 125.25 123.85 25.32 25.43
BACKTALK ILLINOIS DERBY (G3) HAW 0403 9.00 1.0139 1.0868 0.99967 53.42 51.58 52.50 52.74 54.79 49.74 103.2 51.76 49.79 75.11 100.55 113.30 126.08 124.48 25.44 25.53
CONVEYANCE SAN RAFAEL S (G3) SA 0116 8.00 0.9944 1.0864 0.99999 54.55 55.00 54.77 54.55 54.54 55.46 110.0 49.59 48.43 72.48 96.48 108.47 120.45 122.05 24.00 23.97
CONVEYANCE SOUTHWEST S (G3) OP 0220 8.00 1.0657 1.0220 0.99991 56.09 53.24 54.66 57.14 54.09 50.38 106.5 52.67 46.09 71.00 96.48 109.38 122.38 122.78 25.47 25.90
CONVEYANCE SUNLAND DERBY (G3) SUN 0328 9.00 1.0114 1.0713 0.99995 55.15 54.22 54.68 55.00 55.46 53.28 108.4 50.88 47.88 72.15 96.52 108.73 120.96 122.16 24.37 24.44
DEAN'S KITTEN LANE'S END S (G2) TP 0327 9.00 1.0017 1.0854 0.99986 54.48 53.49 53.98 53.93 55.57 52.51 107.0 50.91 48.81 73.27 97.73 109.97 122.21 123.01 24.47 24.48
DEVIL MAY CARE SILVERBULLETDAY S (G3) FG 0220 8.50 1.0840 1.0223 0.99888 55.17 49.95 52.56 55.27 54.95 44.74 99.9 55.22 47.31 73.42 100.29 113.95 127.74 127.74 26.87 27.45
DEVIL MAY CARE BONNIE MISS S (G2) GP 0320 9.00 1.0217 1.0604 0.99980 55.81 53.94 54.88 55.51 56.41 52.08 107.9 51.72 47.37 71.69 96.18 108.48 120.81 120.81 24.49 24.63
DISCREETLY MINE RISEN STAR S (G2) FG 0220 8.50 1.0194 1.0728 1.00000 53.95 53.25 53.60 54.32 53.22 52.55 106.5 50.66 48.58 73.45 98.48 111.05 123.64 123.64 25.03 25.15
DISCREETLY MINE LOUISIANA DERBY (G2) FG 0327 9.00 1.0302 1.0590 0.99995 54.86 53.32 54.09 55.13 54.33 51.77 106.6 51.46 47.78 72.56 97.59 110.18 122.81 122.81 25.03 25.22
DUBLIN SOUTHWEST S (G3) OP 0220 8.00 1.0144 1.0691 0.99991 55.24 53.82 54.53 55.25 55.22 52.39 107.6 51.34 47.84 72.19 96.65 108.91 121.20 121.60 24.46 24.55
DUBLIN REBEL S (G2) OP 0313 8.50 1.0119 1.0737 0.99993 54.81 53.75 54.28 54.73 54.97 52.68 107.5 50.99 48.18 72.63 97.16 109.46 121.78 122.18 24.54 24.61
DUBLIN ARKANSAS DERBY (G1) OP 0410 9.00 1.0303 1.0545 0.99996 55.45 53.89 54.67 55.84 54.71 52.33 107.8 51.44 47.29 71.82 96.60 109.06 121.56 121.96 24.78 24.97
HOMEBOYKRIS HOLY BULL S (G3) GP 0123 8.00 1.0845 1.0039 0.99962 56.90 52.59 54.74 57.89 55.00 48.28 105.2 54.08 45.38 70.44 96.23 109.34 122.57 122.57 25.79 26.35
HOMEBOYKRIS ALW GP 0227 8.00 1.0015 1.0806 0.99997 54.55 55.00 54.78 54.81 54.02 55.46 110.0 49.59 48.26 72.43 96.62 108.72 120.81 120.81 24.19 24.19
ICE BOX ALW GP 0118 9.00 1.0146 1.0729 0.99995 54.63 53.57 54.10 54.56 54.75 52.51 107.1 51.01 48.28 72.85 97.55 109.93 122.33 122.33 24.69 24.79
ICE BOX FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S (G2) GP 0220 9.00 0.9993 1.0908 0.99986 54.07 53.21 53.64 53.50 55.18 52.34 106.4 50.82 49.26 73.87 98.47 110.77 123.07 123.07 24.60 24.60
ICE BOX FLORIDA DERBY (G1) GP 0320 9.00 1.0037 1.0789 0.99997 54.99 54.29 54.64 54.85 55.26 53.58 108.6 50.64 48.21 72.42 96.66 108.80 120.93 120.93 24.24 24.27
JACKSON BEND HOLY BULL S (G3) GP 0123 8.00 1.0635 1.0197 0.99984 56.75 53.62 55.18 57.62 55.10 50.48 107.2 52.94 45.71 70.35 95.53 108.28 121.12 121.12 25.18 25.59
JACKSON BEND FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S (G2) GP 0220 9.00 1.0231 1.0663 0.99997 54.56 53.45 54.00 54.81 54.06 52.34 106.9 51.04 48.12 72.85 97.79 110.31 122.86 122.86 24.93 25.08
JACKSON BEND WOOD MEMORIAL S (G1) AQU 0403 9.00 1.0066 1.0861 0.99988 53.88 52.87 53.37 53.46 54.75 51.85 105.7 50.98 49.22 74.03 98.90 111.35 123.81 123.61 24.87 24.91
LINE OF DAVID MSW SA 0205 8.50 1.0138 1.0777 0.99990 54.18 52.92 53.55 54.00 54.54 51.67 105.8 51.21 48.76 73.55 98.46 110.95 123.46 125.06 24.91 25.00
LINE OF DAVID ARKANSAS DERBY (G1) OP 0410 9.00 1.0608 1.0251 0.99997 56.09 53.70 54.89 57.14 54.09 51.30 107.4 52.23 46.11 70.89 96.18 108.98 121.87 122.27 25.29 25.69
LOOKIN AT LUCKY REBEL S (G2) OP 0313 8.50 0.9991 1.0841 1.00000 54.54 54.42 54.48 54.52 54.57 54.30 108.8 50.13 48.48 72.70 96.91 109.01 121.11 121.51 24.21 24.20
LOOKIN AT LUCKY SANTA ANITA DERBY (G1) SA 0403 9.00 0.9932 1.0894 0.99995 54.64 54.34 54.49 54.13 55.67 54.05 108.7 50.27 48.69 72.83 96.92 108.95 120.97 122.57 24.09 24.05
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME TOYOTA BLUE GRASS S (G1) KEE 0410 9.00 0.9957 1.0916 0.99999 54.05 53.92 53.98 53.82 54.50 53.78 107.8 50.14 49.10 73.51 97.90 110.08 122.25 123.25 24.38 24.36
MISSION IMPAZIBLE   SOUTHWEST S (G3) OP 0220 8.00 1.0691 1.0228 0.99992 55.67 52.78 54.22 56.82 53.48 49.90 105.6 52.71 46.40 71.58 97.35 110.41 123.58 123.98 25.77 26.23
MISSION IMPAZIBLE LOUISIANA DERBY (G2) FG 0327 9.00 1.0210 1.0681 1.00000 54.34 53.71 54.03 54.86 53.30 53.08 107.4 50.60 48.17 72.88 97.76 110.25 122.78 122.78 24.88 25.01
NOBLE'S PROMISE REBEL S (G2) OP 0313 8.50 1.0071 1.0761 0.99998 54.85 54.21 54.53 54.83 54.87 53.57 108.4 50.60 48.13 72.41 96.75 108.93 121.13 121.53 24.34 24.38
NOBLE'S PROMISE ARKANSAS DERBY (G1) OP 0410 9.00 1.0283 1.0588 0.99990 55.24 53.50 54.37 55.41 54.91 51.75 107.0 51.63 47.64 72.28 97.17 109.68 122.23 122.63 24.88 25.06
PADDY O'PRADO TOYOTA BLUE GRASS S (G1) KEE 0410 9.00 1.0190 1.0664 0.99999 54.85 54.04 54.44 55.13 54.30 53.23 108.1 50.74 47.85 72.34 96.98 109.35 121.74 122.74 24.64 24.76
SIDNEY'S CANDY SAN FELIPE S (G2) SA 0313 8.50 0.9926 1.0892 0.99976 53.95 55.62 54.79 54.55 52.80 57.29 111.2 48.52 48.61 72.70 96.73 108.72 120.71 122.31 24.03 23.98
SIDNEY'S CANDY SANTA ANITA DERBY (G1) SA 0403 9.00 0.9898 1.0887 1.00000 54.85 55.08 54.96 54.55 55.46 55.31 110.2 49.77 48.38 72.27 96.07 107.95 119.82 121.42 23.81 23.74
STATELY VICTOR ALW GP 0131 9.00 1.0461 1.0442 0.99993 55.23 53.11 54.17 55.82 54.09 50.98 106.2 52.01 47.22 72.16 97.50 110.29 123.14 123.14 25.34 25.64
STATELY VICTOR TOYOTA BLUE GRASS S (G1) KEE 0410 9.00 0.9789 1.1020 1.00000 54.19 54.94 54.57 53.87 54.81 55.70 109.9 49.31 49.13 73.06 96.83 108.66 120.47 121.47 23.77 23.64
SUPER SAVER TAMPA BAY DERBY (G3) TAM 0313 8.50 1.0558 1.0355 0.99994 55.31 52.96 54.13 56.17 53.65 50.61 105.9 52.23 46.89 71.95 97.48 110.39 123.38 123.18 25.53 25.90
SUPER SAVER ARKANSAS DERBY (G1) OP 0410 9.00 1.0428 1.0426 0.99997 55.67 53.84 54.75 56.39 54.30 52.01 107.7 51.69 46.82 71.45 96.45 109.06 121.72 122.12 25.00 25.27

Since 1998, the Derby winner has been among the top five:
8 times in 3Fr;
8 times in TE;
5 times in %E;
7 times in 10f;
7 times in 10fTT;
 7 times in 10fLQ:
9 times in PF.

The next two tables show the rank order of each contender's top pace parameters by category, separated by surface:

DIRT:

3Fr   TE %E 10f Adj10f 10fTT 10fLQ
HOMEBOYKRIS HOMEBOYKRIS HOMEBOYKRIS DEVIL MAY CARE   DEVIL MAY CARE   HOMEBOYKRIS HOMEBOYKRIS
LOOKIN AT LUCKY   LOOKIN AT LUCKY   LOOKIN AT LUCKY HOMEBOYKRIS HOMEBOYKRIS LOOKIN AT LUCKY   LOOKIN AT LUCKY  
ICE BOX ICE BOX NOBLE'S PROMISE ICE BOX ICE BOX ICE BOX ICE BOX
NOBLE'S PROMISE NOBLE'S PROMISE MISSION IMPAZIBLE   CONVEYANCE JACKSON BEND NOBLE'S PROMISE NOBLE'S PROMISE
CONVEYANCE CONVEYANCE ICE BOX LOOKIN AT LUCKY   LOOKIN AT LUCKY   CONVEYANCE CONVEYANCE
MISSION IMPAZIBLE   DEVIL MAY CARE DISCREETLY MINE JACKSON BEND NOBLE'S PROMISE DUBLIN DUBLIN
DUBLIN   DUBLIN   AWESOME ACT NOBLE'S PROMISE DUBLIN DEVIL MAY CARE DEVIL MAY CARE
DISCREETLY MINE SUPER SAVER CONVEYANCE DUBLIN AMERICAN LION AWESOME ACT AWESOME ACT
JACKSON BEND MISSION IMPAZIBLE   AMERICAN LION SUPER SAVER SUPER SAVER AMERICAN LION AMERICAN LION
AWESOME ACT LINE OF DAVID JACKSON BEND LINE OF DAVID CONVEYANCE JACKSON BEND JACKSON BEND
AMERICAN LION JACKSON BEND DUBLIN AWESOME ACT LINE OF DAVID MISSION IMPAZIBLE   MISSION IMPAZIBLE  
DEVIL MAY CARE AWESOME ACT BACKTALK MISSION IMPAZIBLE   MISSION IMPAZIBLE   SUPER SAVER DISCREETLY MINE
SUPER SAVER  DISCREETLY MINE SUPER SAVER DISCREETLY MINE DISCREETLY MINE DISCREETLY MINE SUPER SAVER
LINE OF DAVID AMERICAN LION DEVIL MAY CARE STATELY VICTOR STATELY VICTOR LINE OF DAVID BACKTALK
STATELY VICTOR STATELY VICTOR STATELY VICTOR AMERICAN LION AWESOME ACT STATELY VICTOR STATELY VICTOR
BACKTALK BACKTALK LINE OF DAVID BACKTALK BACKTALK BACKTALK LINE OF DAVID

AWS:

3Fr   TE %E 10f Adj10f 10fTT 10fLQ
SIDNEY'S CANDY   SIDNEY'S CANDY   SIDNEY'S CANDY   SIDNEY'S CANDY SIDNEY'S CANDY STATELY VICTOR   STATELY VICTOR 
AMERICAN LION CONVEYANCE AMERICAN LION CONVEYANCE STATELY VICTOR   SIDNEY'S CANDY SIDNEY'S CANDY
STATELY VICTOR AMERICAN LION STATELY VICTOR STATELY VICTOR   CONVEYANCE CONVEYANCE CONVEYANCE
CONVEYANCE STATELY VICTOR CONVEYANCE AMERICAN LION AMERICAN LION LOOKIN AT LUCKY   LOOKIN AT LUCKY  
LOOKIN AT LUCKY   LOOKIN AT LUCKY   MAKE MUSIC FOR ME   LOOKIN AT LUCKY   LOOKIN AT LUCKY   AMERICAN LION AMERICAN LION 
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME   PADDY O'PRADO   LOOKIN AT LUCKY  PADDY O'PRADO PADDY O'PRADO MAKE MUSIC FOR ME   MAKE MUSIC FOR ME  
PADDY O'PRADO MAKE MUSIC FOR ME   PADDY O'PRADO DEAN'S KITTEN DEAN'S KITTEN DEAN'S KITTEN DEAN'S KITTEN
DEAN'S KITTEN DEAN'S KITTEN DEAN'S KITTEN MAKE MUSIC FOR ME   MAKE MUSIC FOR ME   PADDY O'PRADO PADDY O'PRADO
LINE OF DAVID   LINE OF DAVID   LINE OF DAVID   LINE OF DAVID   LINE OF DAVID   LINE OF DAVID   LINE OF DAVID  

The following table shows the rank order of each contender's top PF on any surface at a mile or more in 2010 stakes races:

PF
American Lion (-64)
Super Saver (-59)
Mission Impazible (-56) 
Sidney's Candy (-54)
PADDY O'PRADO (-53)
LINE OF DAVID (-52)
devil may care (-51)
DISCREETLY MINE (-51)
dublin (-50)
ice box (-50)
stately victor (-49)
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME (-47)
DEAN'S KITTEN (-46)
CONVEYANCE (-41)
JACKSON BEND (-41)
AWESOME ACT (-37)
LOOKIN AT LUCKY (-37)
NOBLE'S PROMISE (-37)
HOMEBOYKRIS (-31)
BACKTALK (+24)
  
Definition of Pace Terms: 

Slope is a measure of fatigue.  It parallels the increase in time required to negotiate an additional distance.  The higher the number, the steeper the slope, indicating that the fatigue rate is greater.  Slopes will generally fall between 0.9 (slow early-fast late) and 1.2 (fast early-slow late).

Int., or Intercept is a measure of early speed and is inversely related to the slope.  In this case, the lower the intercept, the greater the relative early speed.  Intercepts also will usually fall between 0.9 (fast early) and 1.2 (slow early).

CC, or Correlation Coefficient is a measure of how efficiently a horse's speed is used throughout the whole race.  Perfect efficiency is equal to a CC of 1.00000.  Any value below 1.00000 represents less than ideal efficiency, although it is almost always greater than 0.99900.  The very best horses continually display CC's above 0.99990 while lower quality horses may not display CCs that high.

The remaining terms are part of the "Sartin Methodology" for describing pace characteristics as discussed by Tom Brohamer ("Modern Pace Handicapping", by Tom Brohamer, William Morrow and Company, Inc,. New York, 1991):

EP (Early Pace) is velocity in fps (feet-per-second) to the second call.

SP (Sustained Pace) is the average of early pace and the final fraction, thus relating a horse's speed to the second call and his ability to finish.

AP (Average Pace) is the average  of EP and SP.

1Fr (First Fraction), 2Fr (Second Fraction) and 3Fr (Third Fraction) are the average velocities in fps between each of the calls.

TE (Total Energy) is the sum of EP and 3Fr.  It is the total available energy based on current conditions of distance, surface and track as well as inherent ability.

%E (Percent Early) is a relative measure of energy used through the second call (EP/TE).  Speed types display %E figures significantly higher than off-the-pace types, although the absolute numbers are greatly affected by the distance of a race.