2010 Kentucky Derby Preview

To 2010 Kentucky Derby Entries page

There is little doubt that the Kentucky Derby picture over the last few  years has been muddled by the emergence of the all-weather surface (AWS) as a third type of racing surface, complementing traditional dirt and turf.  Thus far no AWS specialist has won the Derby despite the inclusion of several prominent contenders.  Some have argued that those without prior good form on dirt should be eliminated from consideration.  Others remind us that in 2009, highly regarded AWS specialist Pioneerof the Nile did finish second to Mine That Bird.  He did.  But he was beaten almost seven lengths in one of the slowest adjusted-time Derbies in many years.  His was not a stellar performance by any measure and he is not a good argument against the necessity of good dirt form.

This year there are four entries with either no starts on dirt or which started on dirt but never placed.  They include this year's morning line second favorite Sidney's Candy.  He is coming off three straight convincing wire-to-wire wins on the AWS with decent Performance Figures.  However, those figures have declined with increasing distance.  His pedigree is light in aptitudinal influences and, on balance, does not seem well-suited to classic distances.  When coupled with his racing style, it is hard to make a strong case for him in the absence of a huge move forward on dirt.

Stately Victor was unplaced in five straight starts, mainly allowance races, before his stunning win at 40-1 in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) on Keeneland's AWS.  It  was a modest effort in terms of Performance Figures.  Most important, however, is his dismal record on dirt which includes two allowance starts around two turns in which his better effort was a fifth-place finish beaten six lengths.

Make Music For Me was a good two-year-old and is one of nine Dual Qualifiers among the entries, inexplicably the most in Derby history (the average has been slightly over three).  Why so many top class two-year-olds of 2009 have made it this far on the Derby trail is a mystery.  In any case, Make Music for Me has never raced on dirt, has just one win in his career and that was on grass and he is coming to the Derby off a poor showing in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1).

Dean's Kitten essentially is a turf horse who did win the Lane's End Stakes (G2) at Turfway Park in his only AWS start.  His Performance Figure was modest in that one and in his only start on dirt, albeit on a track rated "good", he was beaten almost 34 lengths in the Pilgrim Stakes as a two-year-old.  In his favor is a pedigree that seems consistent with classic distances, although that by itself is probably not enough.

As always, the contingent of horses that have displayed prior good form on dirt is a mixed bag.

Juvenile champion Lookin at Lucky, the morning line favorite, is, of course, a Dual Qualifier and has an enviable record of six wins in eight lifetime starts plus a second and a third.  Although seven of those starts were on an AWS, he did win the Rebel Stakes (G2) on the dirt at Oaklawn Park in a very game effort in which he earned both his best Performance Figure and his best Beyer Speed Figure.  However, both of those figures are below classic standards and apparently he is one of the lowest best-Beyer Derby favorites in recent memory.  There is enough stay in his pedigree to suggest he may get the distance, but if he does win, expect a race that is fairly slow.  He is prone to eventful trips, but if he can stay out of trouble and step it up a little he has a shot.

Noble's Promise is another Dual Qualifier rated second only to Lookin at Lucky on the Experimental Free Handicap.  He gave up the lead at the wire to Lookin at Lucky in the Rebel Stakes then disappointed as the favorite by never really threatening in the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn.  He hasn't ever run a really fast race and his pedigree suggests he is better suited to shorter distances.  That said, and with six of his eight lifetime starts being on an AWS or turf, his best races in terms of Performance Figures have been the two on dirt.

Line of David won the Arkansas Derby at 17-1 in wire-to-wire fashion after setting brisk fractions and holding on late.  It was his first start in a stakes race and on dirt and followed two front-running wins in turf allowance races at Santa Anita.  Both his pedigree and running style argue against getting the Derby distance.

Mission Impazible won the Louisiana Derby (G2) at the Fair Grounds with a solid late rally and earned an excellent Performance Figure while doing it, well beyond any of his previous efforts.  "Bounce" theorists are probably concerned, but more important, his pedigree is light on stamina influences.  Whether his is "over the top" or developing at the right time is a judgment call.  Either way, the greater worry could be the ten furlongs, although he can't be arbitrarily dismissed.

Ice Box is a relatively late developer who was trounced in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park then rebounded with a 21-1 win at the same distance at the same venue in the Florida Derby (G1).  He rallied from far back to get up at the wire in a fast-paced race that earned him a solid if not stellar Performance Figure.  His pedigree is acceptable for the distance and if the Derby pace is quick (as it usually is) and he can maintain his Florida form, this Nick Zito-trained colt could be a threat.

Conveyance has been a model of consistency, his only loss in five starts coming in his last race, the Sunland Derby (G3) at Sunland Park.  It was the only race in which he had been headed at any call.  His Performance Figures have been sub-standard and his pedigree, along with his need-the-lead racing style, suggest he may want no part of the Derby distance.

American Lion, another consistent type, made a successful transition to dirt from AWSs in his slow-paced wire-to-wire victory in the Illinois Derby (G3) at Hawthorne Park, although his Performance Figure was weak.  He won't see a 49-and-change half mile at Churchill Downs, so a repeat of his Illinois Derby win is improbable.  His pedigree has elements of stamina but is shifted well to the speed side.  It would take another major step forward to make him a threat.

Dual Qualifier Dublin is an enigma.  A Grade 1 winner at two, he tailed off late in his juvenile campaign when stretching out beyond sprint distances.  At three he has run well in three graded route preps but hasn't yet exhibited the punch to break through for a win,  earning a second and two thirds in three Oaklawn Park races, all at odds of 7-2 or less.  His Arkansas Derby Performance Figure puts him in the mix and his racing style is an asset.  However, his pedigree lacks strong aptitudinal influences.  He can't be dismissed, but he will have to step up a bit to get the win.

Super Saver, rated third among Dual Qualifiers in the Derby field, has two solid efforts in route preps this year and is the clear overall leader in Performance Figures on dirt.  In the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs he was third by a half length and in the Arkansas Derby he was second by just a neck.  However, in both races he was running second by a head at the eighth pole and failed to come on.  His pedigree is strong for the Derby distance and if the third start back from a layoff is a handicapping advantage, he would be a serious threat.

The only filly in the field is Devil May Care, also a Dual Qualifier.  After a horrendous 2010 debut in the Silverbulletday Stakes (G3) at the Fair Grounds in which she was fifth beaten over 13 lengths as the 4-5 favorite, she bounced back with a facile pressing-the-pace win in the Bonnie Miss Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park, earning one of the better pre-Derby Performance Figures.  Her pedigree is a combination of speed on top and stamina on the bottom.  On balance it should be sufficient for the distance.  However, unlike previous filly Derby winners, she has never faced males and her inconsistency in graded stakes company is a question mark.

Dual Qualifier Discreetly Mine has improved with distance in three 2010 starts, culminating with one of the year's better Performance Figures among the Derby entries in the Louisiana Derby despite running fourth but only beaten just over a length.  He is bred to stay a classic distance and with a modest move forward while rated a bit off a fast pace he would be a contender.

Awesome Act is another Dual Qualifier who disappointed in the Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct, losing his second place position in the final eighth of mile to finish third almost 10 lengths behind a dominating Eskendereya.  He hasn't been especially fast and his pedigree for the distance is not a sure thing.  A major recovery from his last effort would be required for him to have any chance.

Paddy O'Prado is bred for turf and for distance.  It is not surprising that in his first lifetime start, a six-furlong dirt sprint at Churchill Downs, he ran seventh and was over 11 lengths back at the finish.  His lone effort on an AWS was in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes where he had the lead in mid-stretch and folded, although he was able to maintain the place.  It's probably best that he return to the grass.

Homeboykris is a Dual Qualifier who probably wants no part of ten furlongs according to pedigree.  He gave way easily in the latter stages of the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park in January and hasn't raced since a second-place finish in a Gulfstream Park allowance in February.  That doesn't seem like much preparation for the Kentucky Derby.

Jackson Bend is among the most consistent of all the Derby entries, never finishing worse than second in nine lifetime starts and having swept the Florida Stallion Stakes series as a juvenile.  In 2010 he has three consecutive seconds, although very far back in two nine-furlong efforts in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Wood Memorial.  He is game and he tries every time, but his pedigree and his inability to finish his races with reserve energy say no to the Derby distance.

Backtalk has a listed stakes win at Delta Downs and a 14-length whipping in the Illinois Derby to his credit in 2010.  In his only other start beyond a mile he was ten lengths back at the finish.  He appears not to be fast enough nor do his performances give confidence that he wants a classic distance.  On the upside, if the Derby is run on a wet surface, he is two-for-two on an off track.