2010 Epsom Derby Preview
 by Steve Miller

The following article by Steve Miller has been recently published in RACEFORM UPDATE in the UK.  It is presented here with the permission of the author.

With a close to ideal Dosage profile of speed and stamina, Vermeer can paint himself into history by winning premier Classic now stablemate and long-time Derby favourite St Nicholas Abbey has been withdrawn.

O’Brien may not be ‘Abbey’ but Jan Vermeer can leave him with a smile on his face

THE RUN UP to the 2010 Investec Derby has presented form students with the usual puzzle. In order to gain an edge we look to the fundamentals of breeding and basic type, using the Dosage system as our guide.  

Contenders for the Derby require a blend of speed and stamina that conforms to a Dosage index (DI) of around 1.0 and a centre of distribution (CD) of around zero – or the best fit to this standard in relative terms of those taking part. In addition to stamina suitability (to which the Dosage system confines itself) other factors will of course play their part – not least the ability to handle the track and the prevailing going.  

The accompanying table shows the 15 acceptors at the five-day confirmation stage. Goldolphin has supplemented Rewilding and Buzzword for the race. St Nicholas Abbey is an absentee due to a muscle injury. As usual the table is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage Index (DI). 

2010 Derby contenders

Note: Horses in red were withdrawn. 

Team Ballydoyle

Last season’s champion two-year-old St Nicholas Abbey has been burdened by the stellar expectations of him. To most he proved a disappointing favourite in the 2,000 Guineas , finishing sixth, beaten 3½ lengths by the French raider Makfi. However, we reasoned in our 2,000 Guineas preview that whatever he achieved at Newmarket the son of Montjeu would outperform at middle distances. It is a hammer blow to Ballydoyle that he will not get a chance to redeem himself here where his attributes would have been given an appropriate airing.

It could now be left to Jan Vermeer to step into the breach. At the time of writing, those who could join Jan Vermeer line up from Ballydoyle are: Cape Blanco , Midas Touch, At First Sight and Bright Horizon.

Jan Vermeer, by Montjeu out of a Pennekamp mare, rounded off his two-year-old campaign with a four length victory in the Group 1 Criterium International at Saint-Cloud, on soft going, after winning a maiden at Gowran Park on good to firm, with Midas Touch finishing behind him on both occasions. He was an easy winner of the Group 3 Gallinule Stakes over 10 furlongs at the Curragh on his reappearance this term and warrants huge respect if appearing either at Epsom or in the French Derby.

Midas Touch took the four-runner Group 2 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown from Address Unknown and the pacemaking At First Sight after finishing fourth at Group 1 level in France at the tail-end of last season, behind stablemate Jan Vermeer. The son of Galileo, out of a Darshaan mare, has a negative CD and a DI of less than 1.0, marking him out as a staying type. He appears close to the top of our table and is likely to prove very well suited to the St Leger. He will not fail through want of stamina.

A convincing winner of the Dante from Workforce on his reappearance this term Cape Blanco has subsequently held a prominent position in the betting market for the Derby . The son of Galileo is on a negative CD near the head of our table and, contrary to the doubts of some, will have no problem seeing out the Derby trip. Nevertheless, he has also shown a good element of speed in his races and has all of the credentials to represent Ballydoyle here. He was unbeaten in three races at seven furlongs last season, two at Group level, culminating at Fairyhouse in the Group 2 Galileo EBF Futurity Stakes, in which he made all and stayed on convincingly when challenged.

Godolphin line-up

Frankie Dettori is set to partner Rewilding, leaving Godolphin’s second rider Ahmed Ajtebi to take his chance on either Al Zir or Buzzword.

Rewilding, who has been supplemented for the race at a cost of £75,000, finished runner-up in the Group 2 Prix Noailles at Longchamp earlier this season, when trained by Andre Fabre. The son of Tiger Hill impressed for his new handler, Mahmood Al Zarooni, when landing Goodwood’s 11 furlong Listed Cocked Hat Stakes by four lengths from Prizefighting under Dettori. The Tiger Hill colt out of Darara is a half-brother to Dar Re Mi (by Singspiel) and has good chances of staying the Derby trip.

Al Zir, trained by Saeed Bin Suroor, won his first two starts last term before being placed third to St Nicholas Abbey in the Racing Post Trophy. He was outpaced in the 2,000 Guineas on his reappearance, where he finished ninth and although he may appreciate a step up in trip and easier going than he experienced at Newmarket , he may not have the same sort of stamina reserves as several others here.

Buzzword has also been supplemented by Godolphin. The Pivotal colt is the winner of two of his 10 starts, including the Group 3 Prix La Rochette over 7 furlongs at Longchamp last term. He finished down the field in the 2,000 Guineas on his reappearance, but was subsequently good enough to finish fourth behind Lope De Vega in the Poule D’Essai Des Poulains. No stamina points appear in his Dosage profile and he consequently appears at the bottom of our table. While this speaks against his chances at a mile-and-a-half, connections feel he has been staying on at a mile and are clearly keen to give him the chance of stepping up.

Godolphin’s Chabal has been scratched from the race and Simon De Montfort, who has already taken Group 3 honours this term at Saint-Cloud and Longchamp over 10 furlongs, will head for the French Derby.

Prince Khalid Abdullah

The Henry Cecil-trained Bullet Train won the Lingfield Derby Trial in impressive fashion from Dubawi Phantom after finishing runner-up to David Elsworth’s Myplacelater in a conditions stakes race at Newbury. The Sadler’s Wells colt is unexposed and with 12 points in the stamina wing of his Dosage profile he will comfortably see out the trip. He could easily make up into a fine St Leger prospect.

Bullet Train’s owner, Prince Khalid Abdullah, also has the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Workforce in the Derby. The King’s Best colt was an easy winner of a Goodwood maiden on his only outing last term, slamming Oasis Dancer by six lengths. He showed his dislike for fast going in the Dante on his reappearance this term, by refusing to let himself down on the ground and hanging, causing the bit to slip through his mouth. He nevertheless stayed on for runner-up spot behind Cape Blanco, which in the circumstance was a solid effort. Connections have been particularly pleased with his recent homework and with four points in the stamina wing of his Dosage profile, deriving from his dam sire Sadler’s Wells, this classy colt has fair chances of getting the full 12 furlong trip.

It seems that both Bullet Train and Workforce will take their chances for Prince Khalid, as Commander In Chief and Tenby did for their owner in 1993.

The rest

The John Gosden-trained Azmeel won the Group 3 Dee Stakes at Chester from Dancing David after finishing runner-up to Godolphin’s Chabal in the Group 3 Classic Trial at Sandown earlier in the season.

The Michael Bell-trained Coordinated Cut rallied admirably, when hampered by Ameer, to take Newmarket’s valuable Tattersalls Timeform 3-y-o Trophy by a head on his reappearance this season, but was subsequently made to look one paced behind Cape Blanco and Workforce in the Dante. The son of Montjeu was well beaten in the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy at the tail-end of last season. He must improve again on what he has achieved so far to figure here, but his trainer believes he has come on for the Dante and he looks set to take his chance.

Ted Spread took the Chester Vase on his reappearance this term, rallying when headed to win by a head from Icon Dream. He appears high up in our table and will have no problem with the trip. He must nevertheless improve again to figure here.

The Michael Jarvis-trained Hot Prospect, a maiden winner at two, finished third to Bullet Train at Lingfield this season and occupied the same position behind Coordinated Cut at Newmarket before that. He is by a Derby winner in Motivator, but looks a little out of his depth amongst these.

Dosage track record

The Dosage system helped us to select the winner and first four, in this column in 2008 and the winner and first five in 2007. New Approach was taken to outperform his earlier efforts at a mile over middle distances in 2008, while Authorized was the confident selection the year before that, conforming to a profile that was a virtual blueprint for the race.

Last year Fame And Glory was our choice, also appearing to be an ideal candidate – as indeed he proved by taking the Irish Derby – but had to settle for runner-up spot at Epsom to a brilliant atypical winner in Sea The Stars.

Speed/stamina balance

The optimum blend of speed and stamina for the Derby is often expressed as a Dosage index (DI) of 1.0 and a centre of distribution (CD) of zero. The average DI for the past 12 winners is 1.25 and those in a band between around DI 0.7 and just above 1 appear best suited to the requirements of the race (see table).

* Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)

The winners who matched this requirement of the past 12 winners are: New Approach (DI 0.89), Authorized (0.86), Motivator (1.43), North Light (1.13), Kris Kin (1.05), High Chaparral (0.82), Galileo (1.11) and High-Rise (0.82).

Shortlist

The best matches to the required stamina for this year’s race are: Cape Blanco (0.67), Bright Horizon (0.68), Midas Touch (0.69), At First Sight (0.82), Ted Spread (0.91), Bullet Train (0.92), Azmeel (1.00), St Nicholas Abbey (1.00), Jan Vermeer (1.12) and Coordinated Cut (1.29).

Of these the classy Jan Vermeer is preferred to his stablemates, although Cape Blanco and Midas Touch warrant great respect should they also line up. The unexposed Bullet Train also merits close attention, bidding for a fifth win in the race for Henry Cecil. Azmeel is well placed in terms of his stamina profile. And Workforce and Rewilding also come into it despite falling just outside our ideal parameters shortlisted above.

Verdict

1) Jan Vermeer
2) Bullet Train
3) Cape Blanco
4) Workforce
5) Midas Touch
6) Rewilding

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found on www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.