2011 Two Thousand Guineas Preview
 by Steve Miller
 
The following article is exclusive to www.chef-de-race.com..

Clear form pick Frankel may prove vulnerable to one (or two) better suited to the speed/stamina requirements of the Guineas

Frankel worth taking on at a trip short of his best

THE 2,000 Guineas has a new sponsor in Qipco and a new generation of three-year-olds are shaping up to take each other on over Newmarket’s Rowley Mile, but the spring Classic poses the same old conundrums. Where the form is inconclusive we look to the Dosage system to identify those with the right blend of speed and stamina to succeed.

The table shows the 15 left in at the latest declaration stage for the April 30 showdown. Those with the most stamina potential appear at the top and those with the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage Index (DI).

2,000 Guineas contenders

Cecil star
The joint-champion two-year-old Frankel maintained his unbeaten (five-from-five) record on his reappearance this term, running out a facile winner of the Greenham from the Marco Botti-trained Excelebration. Contrary to the conviction of many, the Dosage tells us he will improve at middle-distances and, assuming they can get him to settle, the son of Galileo should outperform what he achieves in the Guineas when stepped up. He is to receive the services of a pacemaker in the Khalid Abdulla-owned Group 3 winner Rerouted, trained by Barry Hills. Rerouted appears to be an ideal candidate for the role of pacemaker with a Dosage index of 3.0, which is higher than a typical Guineas winner, suggesting a bias toward basic speed.

The 4/1 currently available about Frankel for Epsom looks worth taking ahead of his Guineas run, despite his classy-looking stablemate World Domination featuring second best in the Derby market. At his odds for the Guineas, we may be better off looking elsewhere however.

Ballydoyle trio
The Aidan O’Brien-trained Roderic O’Connor had to settle for second best behind Frankel in the Dewhurst last term but gained compensation when following up in the Group 1 Criterium International at Saint-Cloud. Like Frankel, Roderic O’Connor is by Galileo out of a Danehill mare, but has fewer stamina points than Frankel in stamina wing of his Dosage profile. This suggests that despite sharing the same sire and dam sire Roderic O’Connor may be better suited to the Newmarket mile than Frankel in this their classic season.

Master Of Hounds finished runner-up to Roderic O’Connor in a Curragh maiden before scoring at Tipperary last term. The Kingmambo colt just failed to land the Group 2 UAE Derby at Meydan in March, beaten a nose by the Saeed Bin Suroor-trained Khawlah. He was also placed behind Casamento and Seville in the Racing Post Trophy and may prove better suited to middle distances. A single maiden win from seven appearances doesn’t suggest a clear chance here.

Alexander Pope won at Leopardstown and Dundalk last term, but finished down the field behind Khawlah and Master Of Hounds in the UAE Derby at Meydan recently.

The Group 1 winner Pathfork was unbeaten in his three starts at the Curragh last season for trainer Jessica Harrington, signing off his two-year-old campaign by beating Casamento a head in the National Stakes at the Curragh. A DI of 1.67 would not look out of place for a Guineas winner and the Distorted Humor colt demands respect.

A brilliant winner of the Middle Park and Prix Morny at two, the dual Group 1 winner Dream Ahead looked the real deal until Frankel put him firmly in his place in the Dewhurst. The Diktat colt has been withdrawn due to the likely fast going.

The Ed Dunlop-trained Native Khan took the Craven in good style from Libranno and Yaseer on his return to action this term. The winner of the Group 3 Solario Stakes last season the son of Azamour finished his two-year-old campaign with a decent fourth in the Racing Post Trophy, staying on to be beaten less than four lengths. The likely fast going will suit the imposing grey very well. He was earlier earmarked for the French Derby, but could also give a very good account of himself here. Olivier Peslier is set to take the ride.

Godolphin options
Sheikh Mohammed’s Casamento just failed to land the National Stakes when splitting Pathfork and Zoffany at the Curragh, but went on to round off a highly successful season in landing the Group 2 Juddmonte Beresford Stakes followed by Group 1 glory in Doncaster’s Racing Post Trophy, at the expense of the Ballydoyle pair Seville and Master Of Hounds. The Shamardal colt is now trained by Mahmood Al Zarooni who has withdrawn Ecliptic and Neebras from the race.

Saamidd represents Saeed Bin Suroor for Godolphin. The Street Cry colt won a maiden at Newbury last term in eye-catching style before going on to take the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster from Approve. He subsequently finished last of six in the Dewhurst after taking a keen hold. That run may be best forgotten. His Dosage index of 1.67 puts him close to the average winning mark in the race.

Fury a two-from-two winner at 7 furlongs at Newbury and Newmarket last season for trainer William Haggas carries the colours of Cheveley Park Stud. The Invincible Spirit colt’s Dosage profile is skewed toward speed (appearing close to the bottom of our table), but as he was staying on strongly when taking the valuable Tatersalls Millions 2yo Trophy here at the beginning of October the trip shouldn’t be a concern.

Dubawi Gold has won both his starts this season for trainer Richard Hannon, on the all-weather at Lingfield, with his best piece of winning form last season coming in a conditions stakes race at Ascot.

Happy Today won a maiden for his trainer Brian Meehan at Bath last term and was a good second to the Mark Johnston-trained Dordogne in the Feilden Stakes on his reappearance. The trip is clearly not a problem, although his Dosage profile is skewed toward speed over stamina.

The Eoghan O’Niell-trained Broox won a Group 3 at Maisons-Laffitte last season and was staying on when fourth to Dream Ahead in the Group 1 Prix Morny at Deauville. The Xaar colt is well placed in terms of stamina suitability, but rider Olivier Peslier has opted to take his chance on Native Khan.

The James Toller-trained Loving Spirit is unexposed, winning a maiden and finishing runner-up in a conditions stakes at Newmarket last term. The Azamour colt’s chance on form is difficult to weigh up and the Dosage suggests he may prove best at further than a mile.

Slim Shadey won a novice race at Ascot last season and has been highly tried. The Val Royal colt finished last of five to Frankel in the Royal Lodge last term and looks out of his depth here.

Dosage track record in the 2,000 Guineas
Since I have been writing these big race previews (for Raceform Update) the system has given us Haafhd in 2004, when he was put forward to topple the unsuitable favourite One Cool Cat. In 2005 it told us that Footstepsinthesand and Oratorio had a clear advantage over the red-hot favourite Dubawi – both finishing in front of that one in the race itself. The confident vote went to George Washington in 2006. In 2007 the system gave us the first, second and fourth, in Cockney Rebel, Vital Equine and Duke Of Marmalade (a Cockney Rebel/Vital Equine straight forecast paid out £692.93 to a £1 stake!), and in 2008 the system told us that Henrythenavigator had a better blend of speed and stamina at a mile than New Approach (who was marked out for middle distances). We missed the target with Mastercraftsman – although he went on to land the Irish 2,000 Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes, proving he was the right type for Group 1-level performances at a mile. Sea The Stars was fancied as an outside chance in 2009 and Makfi shortlisted last year.

Sweet spot
The average Dosage index (DI) for the past 13 2,000 Guineas winners is 1.79 (see table), but those with a slightly higher DI than the average (up to around DI 2) seem the ideal type for the race. Of the past 13 winners those that conform to this measure are: Makfi (2.11), Henrythenavigator (1.92), Cockney Rebel (1.91), George Washington (1.67), Haafhd (2.33), Rock Of Gibraltar (2.16), Kings Best (2.06) and King Of Kings (1.78). Golan is the only winner in the past 13 renewals with a DI of below 1 (indicating greater stamina potential than is usually associated with this race). 

* Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)

Shortlist
If we concentrate on those lying in the band of DI 1.2-2.2 (capturing the majority of past winners), we are left with a shortlist of: Casamento (DI 1.22), Roderic O’Connor (1.26), Loving Spirit (1.29), Dubawi Gold (1.46), Broox (1.67), Pathfork (1.67), Saamidd (1.67), Alexander Pope (1.75), Slim Shadey (2.09) and Native Khan (2.20).

Frankel is conspicuous by his absence from this list, which suggests that others will be better suited to the speed/stamina balance that the race demands. While in terms of form and ability Frankel is the clear pick, and it is likely that many from the shortlist will simply not be up to the task, we may find one or two to take him on with from these.

Summary
If Frankel can win the Guineas he’ll likely be a world-beater, as the indications are that we can expect him to improve for stepping up in trip (along the lines of what we said about New Approach). Frankel will clearly take a lot of beating, but it may not be a forlorn task to take him on.

Native Khan is likely to run the race of his life, being very well suited by the likely going and the trip. In terms of what the Dosage tells us, Roderic O’Connor, Pathfork and Native Khan all have a better speed/stamina balance for this than Frankel. For these reasons it may prove worth opposing Frankel here. Roderic O’Connor and Pathfork look the most plausible of his opponents, being better suited to the trip and not a mile behind him on ratings, while Native Khan should relish the conditions.

Suggested finishing order:
 
     1)     Roderic O’Connor
     2)     Pathfork
     3)     Frankel
     4)     Native Khan
     5)     Saamidd/Casamento