2011 Ascot Gold Cup Preview

By Steve Miller

The following article by Steve Miller has been recently published in the RACING POST WEEKENDER in the UK.  It is presented here with the permission of the author.

Fame And Glory has requisite stamina

WHILE FEW thoroughbreds genuinely stay 20 furlongs, if the pace in the Gold Cup is true the horse with the greatest reserves of stamina ought to win, assuming that horse is not run off its legs in the early stages and that relative ability and general fitness are otherwise broadly comparable.

The dream combination of a horse with the right sort of profile for such extreme distance that is also Group 1 calibre is relatively rare. Consequently it is common for horses that do make the grade to win the race more than once (Yeats, Royal Rebel, Kayf Tara, Drum Taps, Sadeem, Gildoran, Ardross, Le Moss and Sagaro have all won this race at least twice since the mid-1970s).

This year we may well have an example of that dream combination.

Those with either (or both) a Dosage index (DI) of below 1.0 and a zero or negative centre of distribution (CD), to have won the Gold Cup in the recent years are: Yeats (four times), Papineau, Kayf Tara (twice), Enzeli, Celeric, Classic Cliché, Double Trigger and Arcadian Heights. Such types seem to run well in this race habitually in spite of what they achieve elsewhere and regardless of odds.

The table shows the 16 left in at the latest confirmation stage. As usual it is organised with those showing the greatest stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage index (DI). Note that the top four have negative CDs.

2011 Ascot Gold Cup contenders

The Irish Derby and Coronation Cup winner Fame And Glory has been successful in both his starts this season after being stepped up in trip to 13 and 14 furlongs respectively. The five-year-old Montjeu entire is a Group 1 winner at two, three and four and aims to extend that here. On respective ratings the others have a mountain to climb to get to him, assuming he stays the 20 furlong trip. Fame And Glory is bred on the same Montjeu/Shirley Heights cross as Prix Royal-Oak winner Montare and with a negative CD and a DI of below 1 he is perfectly placed in terms of stamina aptitude. He would appear to hold an outstanding chance, as he is far and away the classiest of these on form and the only Group 1 winner in the field. His chance looks compelling in this.

Fictional Account has finished behind Fame And Glory twice this season, but the mare won on her final start last term over two miles in Listed company at Ascot.

The admirable Geordieland was placed in the Gold Cup behind Yeats on three occasions, in 2007, 2008 and 2009. The son of Johann Quatz was third behind Askar Tau in the Doncaster Cup on his latest start in 2009. The oldest Gold Cup winner was the nine-year-old mare Beeswing in 1842, so at 10 we have probably already seen the best of Geordieland.

Duncan won this year’s Yorkshire Cup in good style from subsequent Henry II Stakes winner Blue Bajan. The Dalakhani gelding was runner-up to Harbinger in the Hardwicke Stakes last year and successful at Group 2 level at Longchamp, but was subsequently overpowered in the Arc when 15^th of 19 behind Workforce.

Manighar won twice at 15 furlongs as a three-year-old. The Linamix gelding has failed to win since but just failed to peg back Americain in a Group 2 over the same trip at Deauville last season and was far from disgraced when seventh of 23 to that same opponent in the Melbourne Cup. He also finished a length third to Duncan in the Yorkshire Cup on his reappearance this term for trainer Luca Cumani.

Last season’s Lonsdale Cup winner, Opinion Poll, has subsequently moved from Michael Jarvis’s yard to Mahmood Al Zarooni and was not beaten by much when fourth to Brigantin on his latest start. The Halling entire will not fail through want of stamina.

The 2009 Queen’s Vase winner, Holberg, was third in the Henry II Stakes on his reappearance this season for trainer Saeed Bin Suroor. The Halling entire also ran a creditable sixth in last year’s Melbourne Cup, rallying after losing his place. Five stamina points in his Dosage profile give him a chance at the trip.

Royal And Regal has won at two miles at Group 3 level in 2007, but has only returned to the winner’s enclosure once since, back at 12 furlongs. Runner-up to Geordieland in the 2008 Yorkshire Cup and third behind Askar Tau in the 2009 Lonsdale Cup, the son of Sadler’s Wells was well beaten in a maiden hurdle at Leopardstown on latest appearance.

Askar Tau won the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes at Ascot this season, but the Montjeu gelding was subsequently no match for Duncan in the Yorkshire Cup.

The Betchworth Kid finished fourth in the Sagaro Stakes, beaten less than three lengths, but won on his previous start at Nottingham at Listed level over 14 furlongs where he beat Free Agent and Askar Tau.

The Sir Mark Prescott-trained Motrice finished runner-up to Tastahil in the Jockey-Club Cup last season, when just three. The Motivator filly has won at 14 furlongs prior to that and looks a staying type.

Brigantin was successful for trainer Andre Fabre in the Group 2 Prix Vicomtesse Vigier at Longchamp this term, at just shy of two miles, where the Cozzene colt gained revenge over Dunaden who had beaten him earlier in the season in a Group 3 on the same track. Despite appearing lower down our table than many, with a DI of 1.6, he nevertheless does have three prepotent stamina points in his profile.

Henry II Stakes winner Blue Bajan has been supplemented at a cost of £25,000. The nine-year-old Montjeu gelding, out of a Darshaan mare appears at the top of our table with a DI of 0.6 and a negative CD.

The Barry Hills-trained Tastahil beat Motrice by five lengths in the Jockey Club Cup over two miles at the end of last season and made an encouraging reappearance this term when runner-up to Overturn in the Chester Cup over 19 furlongs, giving 12lb to the winner. The Singspiel gelding was also a close runner-up in last year’s Chester Cup and second to Samuel in last season’s Doncaster Cup at Group 2 level. A proven performer at around the required trip, although he struggled, finishing down the field in last year’s Gold Cup where he effectively tailed off. He is no doubt better than that would suggest.

The Francois Doumen-trained Kasbah Bliss won this season at Saint-Cloud and was placed behind Dunaden in a Group 3 at Longchamp on his latest start, but was a well beaten sixth in this last year.

Last season’s Cesarewitch winner Aaim To Prosper has been campaigned extensively at around this trip. Despite showing just two stamina points in his profile and appearing at the foot of our table he has managed to perform with some credit at distance trips.

Negative centre of distribution

If a Dosage index of 1.0 and a centre of distribution of zero is the blueprint for a Derby hopeful, for a potential Ascot Gold Cup winner we are looking for a DI of less than 1.0 and ideally a negative CD. Recent winners of the race conforming to this ideal are: Papineau (DI 0.88, CD -0.04), Enzeli (0.54, -0.45), Celeric (0.00, -1.44), Double Trigger (0.21, -1.40) and Arcadian Heights (0.90, -0.05) – while Yeats (0.89, +0.08), Kayf Tara (0.90, +0.08) and Classic Cliché (0.84, 0.00) qualify in terms of DI and are very close to qualifying in respect of the CD.

This is all the more striking when we consider that negative CD horses are far less common than those with positive CDs, which explains why horses are able to win the Gold Cup in years when there is no particular good example of this type of horse in the race.

Dosage of Previous Winners

Summary

There are four in this year’s race with a DI of below 1 and a negative CD: Blue Bajan (DI 0.60), Fame And Glory (0.65), Opinion Poll (0.81) and Duncan (0.83). 

Fame And Glory is confidently taken to continue where his stablemate Yeats left off. Duncan and Opinion Poll have strong claims on making the frame, while Tastahil, Manighar, Blue Bajan and Holberg are interesting outsiders.

Fame And Glory: win at 2/1; Opinion Poll place at 25/1

Verdict
     1)     Fame And Glory
     2)     Duncan
     3)     Opinion Poll
     4)     Manighar
     5)     Blue Bajan