The following tables display information about the 2011 Kentucky Derby entries.  Information in the first table includes the contender's post position, morning line odds, EFH (Experimental Free Handicap) ranking; the sire; the sire's AWD (average winning distance in North American open stakes); the sire's AWD in dirt and AWS races only; the sire's %C (percentage of progeny open stakes wins at the classic distances of 9 1/2, 10 and 12 furlongs); the sire's sire line; the dam's sire; the dam's sire's AWD; the dam's sire's AWD in dirt and AWS races only; the dam's sire's %C; the dam's sire line; the bloodline cross (P = Phalaris, NP = non-Phalaris); Dosage figures and known connections.  An asterisk (*) after the AWD indicates an AWD sample size of less than five.  Post position (PP) and morning line odds (M/L) will be added after the entries are drawn.

The second table displays lifetime PFs of the contenders in all of their stakes races.  Entries in italics are for races on a synthetic surface.

The last table presents a variety of pace parameters for the contenders in 2011 prep races at a mile or longer on dirt or a synthetic surface.  In addition to the horse, race, track, date and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 10f race (10fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race (10fLQ).  Following 10f is Adj10f which is the projected 10f time adjusted for the differences in track speed between the track on which the prep race was run and Churchill Downs.  The various pace parameters are described here.

Note that because of unresolved questions related to the pace characteristics associated with all-weather surfaces, pace parameters for races on those surfaces are shown in italics in order to differentiate them from those for races on dirt.  At this point, it is left to the reader to decide the significance of these figures on the two different types of surface.  The final table of Derby starters also will differentiate between pace parameters on dirt and synthetic surfaces. 

The historical pace parameter guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are displayed in the following table.  The Adj10f number is missing because the comparative data is unavailable for the races used in developing the guideline figures.  The significance of Adj10f is left to the reader.

Note that all columns in the tables are sortable by clicking on a column head and that the original format can be restored by refreshing the page.
 

  
Since 1998, the Derby winner has been among the top five:
8 times in 3Fr;
8 times in TE;
5 times in %E;
8 times in 10f;
7 times in 10fTT;
7 times in 10fLQ;
10 times in PF.

These are the summary data since 1998 for the top five Derby starters in each of six pace parameter categories plus the starters with the five best PFs in pre-Derby three-year-old graded stakes races at a mile or longer.  The IV (Impact Value) measures the success rate of top five starters relative to their opportunity.  In the 13 years, the top five pace parameter horses have accounted for 27.0% of all starters while, in the 3FR category for example, they have won 61.5% of the races.  The IV of 2.28 is the ratio of 61.5/27.0.  The ROI (Return on Investment) is based on a flat $2 win bet on every qualifying starter.  

Definition of Pace Terms:

Slope is a measure of fatigue.  It parallels the increase in time required to negotiate an additional distance.  The higher the number, the steeper the slope, indicating that the fatigue rate is greater.  Slopes will generally fall between 0.9 (slow early-fast late) and 1.2 (fast early-slow late).

Int., or Intercept is a measure of early speed and is inversely related to the slope.  In this case, the lower the intercept, the greater the relative early speed.  Intercepts also will usually fall between 0.9 (fast early) and 1.2 (slow early).

CC, or Correlation Coefficient is a measure of how efficiently a horse's speed is used throughout the whole race.  Perfect efficiency is equal to a CC of 1.00000.  Any value below 1.00000 represents less than ideal efficiency, although it is almost always greater than 0.99900.  The very best horses continually display CC's above 0.99990 while lower quality horses may not display CCs that high.

The remaining terms are part of the "Sartin Methodology" for describing pace characteristics as discussed by Tom Brohamer ("Modern Pace Handicapping", by Tom Brohamer, William Morrow and Company, Inc,. New York, 1991):

EP (Early Pace) is velocity in fps (feet-per-second) to the second call.

SP (Sustained Pace) is the average of early pace and the final fraction, thus relating a horse's speed to the second call and his ability to finish.

AP (Average Pace) is the average  of EP and SP.

1Fr (First Fraction), 2Fr (Second Fraction) and 3Fr (Third Fraction) are the average velocities in fps between each of the calls.

TE (Total Energy) is the sum of EP and 3Fr.  It is the total available energy based on current conditions of distance, surface and track as well as inherent ability.

%E (Percent Early) is a relative measure of energy used through the second call (EP/TE).  Speed types display %E figures significantly higher than off-the-pace types, although the absolute numbers are greatly affected by the distance of a race.