2011 Kentucky Derby Preview (Update, May 6)

To 2011 Kentucky Derby Entries page

Before discussing the field, note that I haven't paid too much attention to pre-Derby workouts since many in the turf media blew off Thunder Gulch in 1995, reporting he was essentially outrun by a distaffer at Churchill Downs in his last morning clocking. This followed a disappointing fourth in a paceless Blue Grass Stakes. I much prefer an earlier demonstration of superior dirt performance over workout patterns, especially if it was achieved on the Twin Spires surface. And I will downplay, at least for the win, any starter without some semblance of prior form on dirt or an indication of dirt potential. That said, a disruption of a workout schedule is noteworthy and should be evaluated closely.  Also, the reality is that some horses have an affinity for the Churchill Downs surface while others simply do not. That's just the way it is. For those horses which have not actually raced on the surface, one can only guess how well they will take to it.

One thing that must be considered seriously in discussing the Derby is the "trip". With few exceptions, the Derby winner almost always gets an ideal trip. In a vey crowded field where the quality and experience can vary immensely, the horses that can stay out of trouble in the midst of all the chaos have a huge edge. In fact, the trip may overcome deficiencies in ability, which may explain why many Derby winners were never able to later approach their Derby performance. Whether it is anticipating an unimpeded rail trip or projecting an unencumbered outside run to pick up the pieces of a front-end meltdown, the player who guesses correctly is way ahead of the game. Only "trip" can explain outcomes like Damascus' Derby loss and Mine That Bird's Derby win. In the context of trip, it is also useful to realize that the Derby winner is generally fairly close to the lead by the quarter pole. This is true whether he or she has been near the pace all along or has rallied late.

Finally, with fewer and fewer horses bred legitimately for 10 furlongs, keep in mind an observation made by Danny Perlsweig, trainer of champion Lord Avie, to the effect that any horse will get a distance if you give it enough time. In this era, it is not unusual for only one or two starters to truly stay the Derby distance. In fact, there are Derby winners that didn't, at least in an historical sense. It's just something to recognize.

Now on to the field.

Animal Kingdom is lightly raced with two firsts and two seconds in four lifetime starts, none on dirt. Bred for turf and distance he has been impressive on the AWS winning twice at 9 furlongs, first breaking his maiden at Keeneland and then capturing the Spiral Stakes (G3) at Turfway Park rallyng late and drawing away. On the other hand, PFs, including a PF of -24 in the maiden race, suggest he's not really as fast as many in this field. With distance probably not an issue, the question here is class and surface. Not only would he have to make a smooth transition to dirt, he would have to move up several lengths. It's not likely although he could be improving position late if the pace is fast.

Archarcharch, despite being a sprint stakes winner at two, developed a bit slowly and really didn't blossom until the Arkansas Derby (G1), which is probably the ideal time for a Derby contender to get his act together. By the sire of last year's champion older male, Blame, Archarcharch is bred to stay, with 20 points in the Classic category of his Dosage Profile (DP). His PF in the Arkansas Derby is competitive with those of any horse in the field. On the other hand, his pace characteristics fall outside the historical guidelines of most recent Derby winners. Nevertheless, he's fast enough right now and appears well-suited to stay. This could be a case where trip will determine his fate. Unfortunately, he drew post position 1, a possible problem.  He raced fairly well at Churchill Downs in his first lifetime start, closing to finish a respectable second. He should be considered a contender but will have to overcome traffic on the inside if he is to maintain good position.

Brilliant Speed is by the sire of Derby winner Barbaro and should find the distance to his liking. His PFs on turf and the AWS are competitive, but his early attempts on dirt, albeit at sprint distances, were disastrous. In fact, since those first two races of his career he has finished in the money on turf and an AWS in six straight races culminating with a nose victory coming from far back in the Toyoya Blue Grass Stakes (G1).  With no dirt form to recommend him and with a late-closing running style suggesting a lack of tactical speed, one has to wonder whether he is quick enough or agile enough to win under the race conditions. Despite the distance, many Derby winners do display a degree of handiness that keeps them out of trouble and facilitates their trip.  Unfortunately, Brilliant Speed has had his share of traffic problems in earlier races.

Comma to the Top was a leading two-year-old of 2010, has extensive experience with 13 lifetime starts and is as versatile a runner as one could imagine, winning or placing in graded stakes around one and two turns, on dirt, on turf and on the AWS. This versatility is rare, indeed. However, he is the type that likes to be on the lead and he may not be bred for classic distances. His sire was a sprinter/miler type and is a young son of Indian Charlie who is not noted as a predictable classic influence. His dam's sire, the successful stallion Stormy Atlantic, is relatively new to the broodmare sire ranks but as a direct sire of runners he has never gotten a major winner on dirt beyond 9 furlongs. In addition, Comma to the Top's best PFs are a cut below the leaders. However, he is a Dual Qualifier and, while emphasizing that it's unlikely, should he find himself loose on an easy lead, those qualities of high class early maturity could enhance his performance. Here, too, trip is the key.  His post position is ideal but could set up a speed duel.

Decisive Moment was a decent two-year-old, placing in three stakes at Calder and Churchill Downs. He doesn't have an ideal 10 furlong pedigree and may be better suited to short middle distances, having backed up off the lead in both the Risen Star Stakes (G2) and Spiral Stakes (G3) following a wire-to-wire win in the Jean Lafitte Stakes at a flat mile. His PFs have never been good enough and he seems overmatched here.

Derby Kitten has raced once on dirt in 9 lifetime starts, a Belmont Park 8 1/2-furlong MSW as a two-year-old in which he was beaten 27 1/2 lengths by To Honor and Serve.  He has one other non-turf start, the very recent Coolmore Lexington Stakes (G3) on Keeneland's AWS which he won at 9-1 odds rallying from last place to win pulling away.  His PF was close to those of the leading contenders and his pace parameter numbers for the race were outstanding.  Whether his speed and pace figures on the AWS translate to speed and pace on dirt is the issue.  Interestingly, his full brother, William's Kitten, at age two won an 8 1/2-furlong stakes race on the dirt at Louisiana Downs and ran second, beaten five lengths, in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs to the next year's Derby winner, Super Saver.  In that race he earned a very good PF for two-year-old, -40.  In 2010, William's Kitten was third in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3), just over three lengths behind the winner, Winslow Homer.  So Derby Kitten's potential on dirt is an open question.  Notionally bred to stay a mile and a quarter, continued improvement and a smooth transition to the Louisville surface could put him in the mix.

Dialed In is the lightly-raced probable Derby favorite with three wins within his division and a narrow closing loss against older allowance horses. He comes from off the pace and it shows in his strong pace parameter numbers where he is among the top five in every category on dirt. His PFs are right there with the best of the three-year-olds and he has a reasonable chance to last a mile and a quarter. The one caveat is that daughters of his broodmare sire, Storm Cat, have never produced a major winner on dirt beyond 9 furlongs in a major stakes race despite Storm Cat's long and exceptionally successful stud career. Were he to win, Dialed In would be the first. Another concern with Dialed In is the trip. A strong closer, his route wins have come when chasing a very quick pace. The loss to older horses occurred when the pace was slow. Although there are Derby contenders that prefer to race on the front end, there is no guarantee among these that the pace will be unusually fast. Also, as with any horse coming from well back, traffic is a potential issue. Still, on ability and talent he is a contender, and he has a maiden win at Churchill Downs as a two-year-old.

American-bred Master of Hounds has raced once in North America in last year's BC Juvenile Turf (G2) but never on dirt. At two he was ranked 12 pounds below European champion Frankel (since deemed the greatest English 2000 Guineas winner in history) and 9 pounds below American champion Uncle Mo by the Racing Post. If you use that as guide instead of Experimental Free Handicap weights, you could argue that he meets Dual Qualifier requirements, being 9 pounds below the American highweight.  In fact, the Racing Post rated Master of Hounds 4 pounds better than actual Dual Qualifier Soldat and within 4 pounds of Dual Qualifier Comma to the Top, the fourth best North American colt of 2010 on the Experimental.  Similarly, Timeform also rated Master of Hounds 9 pounds below Uncle Mo.  At three he has but one start, that on the AWS at Meydan in the UAE Derby (UAE-2) where he was just run down at the wire by the UAE Oaks (UAE-3) winner Khawlah (Ire) in a valiant effort. From a breeding standpoint he is probably the surest contender to stay 10 furlongs, with his sire, Kingmambo, and his broodmare sire, Sadler's Wells, being among the great stamina influences of our time. While others will be gasping for air, if he takes to dirt he should be finishing with good reserve energy. Kingmambo, primarily a turf sire, has gotten a couple of Grade 1 level dirt horses at a classic distance, Lemon Drop Kid and Student Council. Sadler's Wells is also mainly a turf influence as a broodmare sire, but one of his daughters did produce a classic distance Grade 1 winner on dirt, Music Note. Perhaps the bigger concern is Master of Hounds' preparation. Just a single start at three, thousands of miles from Louisville and on a synthetic surface. Normally that would make him a toss, but when the trainer is Aiden O'Brien and the rider is Garrett Gomez, you can't be arbitrarily dismissive. Without knowing his affinity for dirt or his physical condition, I'd still consider him a threat.

Lightly- raced Midnight Interlude won the Santa Anita Derby (G1) at long odds in his first stakes start, racing just behind the moderate pace set by Comma to the Top and catching that one close to the wire. He may stay the Derby distance but that is not assured based on his breeding. His Santa Anita Derby PF is several lengths slower than those of some top contenders. He has some decent pace parameter numbers and is among the leaders in two of the most profitable categories, TE and 10f . He is improving at the right time, although perhaps not enough, but he fits a productive pace profile and should be at least considered.  The same jockey-trainer combo that took War Emblem to a Derby win is a huge asset.

Mucho Macho Man is certainly one of the most consistent runners of his generation, unplaced in just one of 8 lifetime starts. At two he was ranked at 115 pounds on the Experimental Free Handicap. In a typical year where the juvenile highweight is assigned 126 pounds instead of Uncle Mo's 128, he would have been only one pound shy of being a Dual Qualifier. The Derby distance could be within his reach and his lifetime PFs are competitive with those of any in the field. His pace parameters are among the best on dirt. He likes to run in a stalking position which could keep him out of trouble and his post position is ideal. With a good trip he is a legitimate contender.

Nehro has only a maiden win in five lifetime starts but has generated excitement from fast closing seconds by a neck in both the Louisiana Derby (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G1). Normally coming from far back, trip and traffic are major issues in a 20-horse field in which others have a similar style. As a one-run closer, it is assumed he will handle the Derby distance. However, daughters of his broodmare sire, Afleet, have gotten only one major winner at a classic distance, older female champion Fleet Indian. And despite his running style, his pace parameter numbers are not among the leaders. His PFs are first-rate and he is improving at the right time, but can he put together a third consecutive top effort, this time against a bigger and better field and involving a strategically more difficult race scenario? Starting from the 19 hole is not an issue since he will be dropping well back, leaving the traffic conditions as his major challenge.  He's a contender, but could be overbet.

Pants On Fire seems to need the lead or be right off it to be successful. He never got close to the front in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) and was trounced. In the three routes immediately preceding the Risen Star he gave up the lead late despite modest fractions. Only in the Louisiana Derby (G2) did he punch through to a narrow win over a fast closing Nehro after pressing the comfortable pace set by Liondrive who finished last. In that race he earned the best PF by any contender in a route race this year. From a pedigree perspective he has the potential to stay a mile and a quarter although he doesn't run like it. Also, there are several in the field who will be trying for the lead early and his prospects for getting there first are not good. He's a nice colt who may be better suited to middle rather than classic distances.

Santiva, weighted at 116 pounds on the Experimental Free Handicap, missed being a Dual Qualifier only because the highweight, Uncle Mo, was assigned 128 pounds instead of the traditional 126. A son of Giant's Causeway, the leading sire in North America for the last two years, he is bred to handle the Derby distance. However, apart from a second in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) in which he was backing up late after attending a modest pace he hasn't earned anything like the PFs required to win the Derby. His best pace parameter numbers are good but not stellar. He will need to express his near-Dual Qualifier characteristics and improve dramatically with the increased distance to be competitive. On the positive side he won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) around two turns at Churchill Downs in his only race at that venue.  He's worth considering at a price.

Shackleford came very close to upsetting the Florida Derby (G1) at 69-1 when headed by Dialed In just before the wire. He had set a brisk pace throughout but couldn't hold off the late rush by the winner. He hadn't shown much before the race and he is not ideally bred for 10 furlongs. He'll probably be in the mix with several others on the front end which won't help his chances and he is unlikely to get a comfortable uncontested lead. Short of an ideal trip he will probably be backing up in the stretch. To his credit he is a winner in his only start at Churchill Downs at two.

Soldat's best races have been when on the lead while setting a moderate pace. When he failed to gain the lead in the fast-paced Florida Derby (G1) he faded badly and finished up the track. He is a Dual Qualifier even if his breeding may not be the best for classic distances. When in top form his PFs are consistent but marginally below those of the division leaders. If the pace is comfortable and he can reach the front without excessive effort he could be a threat. However, there are a few others that would benefit from a similar scenario. And his post position, far outside, won't help. The edge he has over some of those is his two-year-old foundation, early expression of class and maturity.

Stay Thirsty was Grade 1-placed at two but was beaten almost 15 lengths in the BC Juvenile (G1) at Churchill Downs in his only attempt at the Luoisville track. He won the Gotham Stakes (G3) on Aqueduct's inner track earlier this year but when facing better in the Florida Derby (G1) he ran next to last. He could be suited to the distance but his inconsistency is an issue. Crushed in both efforts around two turns at the Grade 1 level, his ultimate class is a major question mark.

Twice the Appeal took a while to get rolling but his last 4 starts have been encouraging even if his last two were at the secondary venues Turf Paradise and Sunland Park. However, his PFs are lengths inferior to the top three-year-olds and the likelihood of him getting 10 furlongs is remote. His sire's AWD in North American open stakes races is a short 7.3 furlongs and the daughters of his broodmare sire have never produced a major winner beyond 9 furlongs. He seems overmatched in this field.

Twinspired is an AWS mid-pack type with only one race on dirt and that was a disaster. He is placed in his last two starts - graded stakes on the AWS - but that is not necessarily an endorsement. His distance breeding is sound enough but apart from a couple of good PFs on turf and the AWS, it is hard to make a case for him on the Churchill Downs surface. His pace parameter numbers look very good, although they were achieved on a synthetic surface so their relevance to dirt is suspect.

Uncle Mo, SCRATCHED
 
Watch Me Go is experienced with 10 lifetime starts characterized by a pattern of in-and-out performances. He is a Grade 2 winner and Grade 3-placed this year against second- and third-tier competition but unplaced in five other lifetime starts against stakes competition. Class and consistency, not distance, are the issues here and he doesn't match up well with the competition.  His outside post, coupled with his mid-pack style of running will almost certainly keep him wide around the turns.

So where does that leave us in what appears to be one of the weakest group of classic runners in recent years?  Top tier contenders seem to include Archarcharch, Dialed In, Master of Hounds, Mucho Macho Man and Nehro.  Below these are Brilliant Speed, Comma to the Top, Derby Kitten, Midnight Interlude, Santiva, Shackleford and Soldat.  The rest?  For the most part, a win by any of these would be a surprise.  With so many questions relating to quality of the field, distance ability, form and surface suitability, I propose to take a shot on the European invader Master of Hounds.  Certainly he could flop for any number of reasons, not the least of which are the uncertainty of his transition to dirt, a single prep race (albeit excellent at a longer distance than any other starter has gone) and the rigors of traveling half way around the world to get to Louisville via Duabi.  But his connections are the best, he has sufficient class against these (a notional Dual Qualifier according to European ratings), his tracking style is an advantage and he is almost assured of staying on.  Plus, his odds should be attractive.  For what it's worth, only three Derby contenders have a higher Timeform Rating this year as a three-year-old.  However, as a cautionary note there are reports from a couple of observers that he has not looked impressive following his arrival from Ireland.  In contrast, his connections have said they were delighted with his foray onto the track.

The defection of Uncle Mo alters the pace parameter analysis to a degree and moves Dialed In to the very top in five of the six categories, so despite concerns about the bottom side of his pedigree jeopardizing his prospects at ten furlongs and the possibility the pace will not be overly fast, this pattern is very compelling.  If the pace is fast and he avoids traffic problems (trip, again) he is viable.  It is encouraging that Equestrio, which defeated Dialed In in his older horse allowance start by a half length on March 6, was third in the Alysheba Stakes (G3) for three-year-olds and up on May 6 at Churchill Downs beaten just a nose and a head.  

I am leaning toward putting Derby Kitten, Mucho Macho Man and Midnight Interlude into the mix, the first because he's peaking at the right time and despite only turf and AWS form, his full brother's high quality abilities on dirt are encouraging.  Mucho Macho Man gets the nod because of his combination of speed, pace characteristics, experience and consistency.  Midnight Interlude is included because of his continual improvement, profitable pace parameter pattern and his Derby-winning connections.    Additionally, both Comma to the Top and Soldat, as the other Dual Qualifiers, could surprise with better than anticipated performances so I always find a spot on the tickets for the DQs.  And as mentioned in the horse-by-horse analysis, Santiva is a near Dual Qualifier, has a graded stakes win at Churchill Downs, strong pace parameter numbers and should offer value.  

Some Factors Relevant to Classic Performance: