2011 Epsom Derby/Oaks Previews
 by Steve Miller

The following article by Steve Miller has been recently published in the WEEKENDER in the UK.  It is presented here with the permission of the author.

Pour Moi’s class and stamina to ruin Queen’s day  

THE RUN UP to the June Classics has presented form students with the usual clues and false trails they are obliged to separate and solve. Where the form is inconclusive we look to the Dosage system to give us our edge.  

Contenders for the Investec Derby and Oaks, as a rule of thumb, require a blend of speed and stamina that conforms to a Dosage index (DI) of around 1.0 and a centre of distribution (CD) of around zero – or the best fit to this standard in relative terms of those taking part. In addition to stamina suitability (to which the Dosage system confines itself) other factors will of course play their part – not least the ability to handle the track and the prevailing going and how good the individual is to begin with.  

The accompanying table shows 16 of the 17 acceptors at Monday’s (May 30) confirmation stage. It is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and those with the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage Index (DI).

2011 Derby contenders

The relatively unexposed Carlton House conforms to a virtual blueprint reading for a Derby candidate with a DI of 1.00 and a CD of 0.17. The son of Street Cry has good speed influences through his tail-male (top) line, but crucially he also derives stamina from his dam sire Bustino through Busted and Crepello before him. The Dante form in which he quickened pleasingly to outpoint the Aidan O’Brien-trained Seville looks solid and he looks sure to give a good account of himself for his handler Sir Michael Stoute.  

The Ed Dunlop-trained Native Khan is excluded from our table due to insufficient points in his Dosage profile. This should not be taken to reflect a lack of ability, simply that his Dosage reading is likely to prove inaccurate. The Azamour colt should be at least as effective at trips beyond a mile as he is at that distance. He was originally aimed at the French Derby over 10 furlongs, which would have suited him very well, but he can also give a good account of himself here following his exertions in the Guineas, now that Frankel is out of his way.  

The Andre Fabre trained Pour Moi is a Group 2 winner by Montjeu out of a Darshaan mare. Darshaan’s sire Shirley Heights was a classic/professional chef-de-race (a prepotent influence for stamina). Derby runner-up Fame And Glory and Prix Royal-Oak winner Montare were bred on the Montjeu/Shirley Heights cross. Pour Moi will not be beaten for lack of stamina and has also shown an explosive turn of foot. He aims to emulate Montjeu’s Derby winning sons Motivator and Authorized here.That Fabre believes him to be the best chance he has had of landing the Derby and that owners Magnier/Tabor/Smith have backed this judgment in bringing him over to bolster their formidable Ballydoyle contingent, may be all we need to know.  

Ocean War has won at Listed level at 10 furlongs for Mahmood Al Zarooni, but the Dosage indicates a mile and a quarter may be his optimum trip. It is expected that the Dalakhani colt will be Godolphin’s sole representative.  

Apart from running no sort of race in the 2,000 Guineas Roderic O’Connor made amends in the Irish equivalent with a determined front-running performance at the Curragh. While others here have more stamina aptitude, Roderic O’Connor may have the right sort of blend of speed and stamina to show up well in this. Although he has been left in at the latest acceptance stage the Galileo colt may travel to Chantilly for the French Derby rather than to Epsom.

The Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial winner Recital is no doubt talented and will get the trip, but does not seem ideally suited to Epsom and also appears to be the type who may boil over. There is also no doubt that Dante runner-up Seville will get the trip and while he has a steadier temperament he may just fall short in terms of ability.

Speed/stamina balance

The optimum blend of speed and stamina for the Derby is often expressed as a DI of 1.0 and a centre of distribution (CD) of zero. However, the average DI for the past 13 winners is a little higher at 1.27 and those in a band between around DI 0.7 and 1.4 appear best suited to the requirements of the race (see table).

Dosage of previous Derby winners

* Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)

The winners who matched this requirement, of the past 13 winners are: Workforce (DI 1.44), New Approach (0.89), Authorized (0.86), Motivator (1.43), North Light (1.13), Kris Kin (1.05), High Chaparral (0.82), Galileo (1.11) and High-Rise (0.82). The exceptional Sea The Stars is the outlier here – a colt with a DI of 3 would normally not be expected to last the Derby trip.

Shortlist

The best matches of those that make our shortlist are: Seville (DI 0.73), Pour Moi (0.78), Recital (0.78), Treasure Beach (0.89), Nathaniel (1.00), Carlton House (1.00), Memphis Tennessee (1.13), Casamento (1.22) and Roderic O’Connor (1.26).  

It is easy to see why Carlton House is the ante-post favourite. However at the respective odds he looks worth taking on. Pour Moi is nominated to outstay and perhaps to outclass the Queen’s colt, while Native Khan and Roderic O’Connor (if lining up here) could both run very well at decent prices.

Verdict

    1) Pour Moi
    2) Carlton House
    3) Native Khan
    4) Roderic O'Connor

Wonder to wow

Selected Oaks contenders

Of the leading Investec Oaks contenders, the Dosage system marks Zain Al Boldan, Wonder Of Wonders and Beatrice Aurore as best suited to 12 furlongs.  

The royally-bred Wonder of Wonders gets the vote. The daughter of Kingmambo, out of the Sadler’s Wells mare All Too Beautiful, has no less than 12 points (Solid) in the stamina wing of her Dosage profile balanced by 14 speed points (Brilliant and Intermediate), with a 26 point concentration in her middle Classic division.  

Misty For Me is an interesting possibility, but is also the likeliest of these to be found wanting at the trip (Storm Cat is her dam sire). Blue Bunting is already a classic winner at a mile, but is not certain to fully get the trip here. Any easing in the going would help Havant who is fancied to get a lot closer to Blue Bunting than she did in the Guineas.

Verdict