Entries

The following is a brief summary review three days out of the entries in the 2012 Kentucky Derby.

ALPHA: Just short of being a Dual Qualifier at 114 pounds on the EFH and definitely bred for classic distances he has a running style well-suited to the fast pace the Derby is likely to have. Unlike previous Godolphin Derby contenders, this one is strictly American-raced. One negative is an abysmal performance at CD in the BC Juvenile. He earned the fourth best PF in a Derby prep race around two-turns, just 1/2 length below the top and he has improved in each of his three successively longer races in 2012. He appears to be the type that needs a clean trip. If he gets it and the pace is quick up front he would have a very good chance; however, his training setback may be an issue.

BODEMEISTER: He is a lightly-raced, late-developing colt, unraced at two, but with the marginally best PF in a Derby prep race around two turns. He has displayed plenty of speed and is a candidate to get caught up in a typical Derby fast early pace. If loose on the lead he would be a formidable threat. However, his odds are likely to be too low considering legitimate questions about his suitability to classic distances. First, there is the issue of too little foundation as no Derby winner has been unraced as a juvenile in 130 years. Second, daughters of his broodmare sire, Storm Cat, have never produced a major winner on dirt beyond nine furlongs from about 2,500 foals over two decades.

CREATIVE CAUSE: A Dual Qualifier and the third-ranked juvenile of 2011 he is bred to stay, he is experienced, and he has never out of the money in eight career starts.  He ran very well at Churchill in the BC Juvenile but will need to improve a couple or three lengths over his 2012 form to date, although he has displayed historically ideal pace characteristics coming into the race. With a good trip and a normal Derby pace in front of him he should be a factor late and his odds could be more than fair.

DADDY LONG LEGS: The only Derby contender to race or win beyond a mile and an eighth. he was very impressive winning the UAE Derby on a synthetic surface with a Racing Post Rating that places him among the top prospects. He has been almost exclusively European-raced but with American breeding suggesting an affinity for dirt; however, he was trounced in his only start on the main track at CD in the BC Juvenile. That may be attributable to travel from the UK and other factors, but he will be traveling again so it's a concern. If he makes the transition well he could be a major player, especially with a good stalking trip.

DADDY NOSE BEST: A very experienced and solid two-year-old in 2011 racing mainly on turf, he is undefeated at three on the main track around two turns, albeit against second-tier competition. Notionally bred to stay classic distances he doesn't seem quite as fast as the division leaders and will need to step up significantly to compete. He comes from well back and will definitely need a clean run to get position for a late charge. He may not be good enough to challenge the top contenders without a lot of luck and an affinity for the Churchill Downs surface. Disappointing earlier efforts at Churchill in a couple of juvenile maiden sprints prompted his intial transition to grass.

DONE TALKING: A strong closer, he seems reasonably bred for classic distances. He hasn't yet displayed first level speed in any of his races so it's hard to make a case that he can defeat the best of his generation at this point in his career. Further improvement could have him picking up those wilting from a fast early pace but a win would be a big upset. He definitely needs a clean trip.

DULLAHAN - But for a DI that is just 0.20 units over the classic guideline he would be yet another Dual Qualifier Derby contender. Bear in mind that breeding trends suggest half of all Derby winners will exceed the guideline figure within 10 to 15 years so one shouldn't be overly concerned condsidering he has shown steady and consistent race-to-race improvement from the very start of his racing career as distances have increased. His latest PF is among the best in any Derby prep and his pace characteristics are historically ideal. However, despite quality performances on turf and Keeneland's AWS he has yet to break through with a first-rate run on dirt in three tries, all at Churchill Downs. His Derby performance may hinge largely on how well he makes the adjustment to the Churchill Downs surface. If he adjusts well he is a major threat.

EL PADRINO: Like Alpha, he was a very good two-year-old but just below Dual Qualifier status. There aren't many negatives other than a disappointing effort in the Florida Derby at fairly low odds that was a regression in PF from his earlier 2012 starts. If he bounces back to top form he will be a threat and should be in good position early; however, he could be forced wide and will need room for the final drive. Distance should be no problem and his pace characteristics are excellent.

GEMOLOGIST: An undefeated Dual Qualifier, a two-time winner at Churchill and first-rate on an off track, he is hard to fault based on what he has done so far. He's close to the top rank in PF and in the upper third of the field in closing pace characteristics. He should be well-placed and in a position to avoid trouble. With a clean trip and a modest move forward he would be a serious contender. The one caveat is lack of a work at Churchill Downs but his previous success on that surface may be sufficient.

HANSEN: The only thing that can stop last year's juvenile champion is himself, more specifically his racing style and his demeanor on the track.  In terms of class and speed there are none superior. He loves the surface at Churchill Downs and if the track is wet he will handle it. He is bred on the speed side but within the guidelines. If he can remain relaxed and sit behind the early speed that is likely to fade late, his native ability might be enough to hold off any late challenges. If the others are foolish enough to let him get away in the manner of War Emblem he will bbe formidable. He may not be an ideal ten furlong horse, but that hasn't stopped a few others in recent years from taking the roses.

I'LL HAVE ANOTHER: He showed promise as a two-year-old and moved forward at three and has developed a desirable racing style sitting comfortably off an honest pace and finishing well with determination. He could have issues if shuffled back early but if he tries to gain a forward placing he may be compromised by his far outside post position. Breeding suggests distance is not an major concern.  He should not be overlooked, especially if there are indications of further improvement. However, if the track comes up wet he might have some problems based on his lone earlier effort on an off-track where he never got into contention.

LIAISON: He is a Dual Qualifier but not ideally bred for classic distances despite two mile-and-a-sixteenth wins as a juvenile on Hollywood's synthetic surface. He doesn't seem fast enough and he hasn't improved since last year.

OPTIMIZER: He has yet to display the speed, class or form of a serious Derby contender.

PROSPECTIVE: Over his career he has expressed fairly consistent second-tier form but he was completely overmatched both times facing Grade 1 competition. Distance may not be an issue but he hasn't been fast enough or classy enough to match the the better contenders. He finished dead last in the 2011 BC Juvenile, possibly attributable to class issues and/or a dislike for the Churchill Downs surface.

ROUSING SERMON: He is a Dual Qualifier that has shown no significant improvement at three. Neither his pace characteristics nor current form are encouraging.  He lost twice at two to Liaison which may not be a ringing endorsement. His Louisiana Derby effort was decent but the race quality was modest.

SABERCAT: Another Dual Qualifier that has failed to match his juvenile form. He does like Churchill and an off track but his speed and pace characteristics are deficient at this point.

TAKE CHARGE INDY: A good two-year-old, his claim to fame is a front-running win over Union Rags in the Florida Derby. However, he won't get away with the same slow pace he set in that one, so if he tries to stay with the early leaders he could be in trouble. He has displayed good, consistent speed over his last few races albeit a few lengths slower than the division leaders. A win would be a major upset but perhaps not impossible if everything were to go his way, a situation that occurs only rarely in the Derby but is not impossible, especially if he can relax just off the lead.

TRINNIBERG: A Dual Qualifier that has actually improved from two to three. That said, he has never raced beyond seven furlongs in seven lifetime starts and asking him to go a mile-and-a-quarter his first time around two turns seems unreasonable. Will probably be a career sprinter and  have a lot to say about the early pace in the Derby. If he tries to set a fast pace he is a candidate to finish last.

UNION RAGS: He was the co-highweight with champion Hansen on the 2011 Experiental Free Handicap but hasn't shown much development at three.  Coupled with the fact that his sire, Dixie Union, has never gotten a major stakes winner beyond nine furlongs on any surface from hundreds of foals ththere could be major questions about his suitability to the Derby distance. Still, his back class is exceptional, he likes the Churchill Downs surface and if the weather is bad he will like an off track. One can not arbitrarily dismiss a Dual Qualifier with such extraordinary credentials, but he may not fit the ideal prototype of a Derby winner.

WENT THE DAY WELL: A versatile type, he has shown solid form first on turf in the UK at two and on dirt and an AWS in the U.S. at three. In addition, he has displayed continual improvement at three and while perhaps not yet as fast as some of the others, another move forward could put him in the mix. Not among the leaders in any critical category but not far behind in several.  At this stage he is among the second-tier contenders but with the potential to step up if he pops a lifetime best effort. He might be a viable longshot.

CONTENDERS in BLUE are Dual Qualifiers
CONTENDERS in MAROON are elite two-year-olds of 2011 but not Dual Qualifiers

The following table sorts the contenders according to the categories described.  The last two columns under POSITIVES and NEGATIVES summarize contender assets or liabilities.

DISTANCE:  Notional ability to stay classic distances (positive); sub-classic distance potential (negative)
CLASS:  Lifetime PF of -50 or better (positive); worse than -40 (negative)
PACE:  Among the top five in at least four pace parameter categories (positive); not among top five in any category (negative)
FORM:  PF of -50 or better in last Derby prep race; worse than -40 (negative)
SURFACE:  Prior good race at Churchill Downs (positive); poor races at Churchill Downs (negative)
OFF TRACK:  Demonstrated ability on a wet surface (positive); poor record on a wet surface (negative)

	DISTANCE	CLASS	PACE	FORM	SURFACE	OFF TRACK		POSITIVES (DRY)		POSITIVES (WET)
	ALPHA	ALPHA	CREATIVE CAUSE	ALPHA	CREATIVE CAUSE	EL PADRINO		CREATIVE CAUSE-4		CREATIVE CAUSE-4
	CREATIVE CAUSE	BODEMEISTER	DULLAHAN	BODEMEISTER	GEMOLOGIST	GEMOLOGIST		DULLAHAN - 4		DULLAHAN - 4
	DADDY NOSE BEST	CREATIVE CAUSE	EL PADRINO	DULLAHAN	HANSEN	HANSEN		ALPHA - 3		HANSEN - 4
	DULLAHAN	DULLAHAN	I'LL HAVE ANOTHER	GEMOLOGIST	SABERCAT	SABERCAT		HANSEN - 3		ALPHA - 3
	I'LL HAVE ANOTHER	HANSEN		HANSEN	UNION RAGS	TAKE CHARGE INDY		BODEMEISTER - 2		GEMOLOGIST - 3
	(MY ADONIS)	UNION RAGS				TRINNIBERG		GEMOLOGIST - 2		UNION RAGS - 3
						UNION RAGS		I'LL HAVE ANOTHER - 2		BODEMEISTER - 2
						(MY ADONIS)		UNION RAGS - 2		EL PADRINO - 2
								DADDY NOSE BEST -1		I'LL HAVE ANOTHER - 2
								EL PADRINO - 1		SABERCAT -2
								SABERCAT - 1		DADDY NOSE BEST - 1
								(MY ADONIS - 1)		TAKE CHARGE INDY - 1
										TRINNIBERG - 1
										(MY ADONIS - 2)
	DISTANCE	CLASS	PACE	FORM	SURFACE	OFF TRACK		NEGATIVES (DRY)		NEGATIVES (WET)
	LIAISON	LIAISON	DADDY NOSE BEST	DADDY NOSE BEST	ALPHA	DONE TALKING		LIAISON - 4		LIAISON - 4
	TRINNIBERG	OPTIMIZER	DONE TALKING	EL PADRINO	DADDY LONG LEGS	I'LL HAVE ANOTHER		DADDY NOSE BEST - 3		DADDY NOSE BEST - 3
		ROUSING SERMON	LIAISON	LIAISON	DADDY NOSE BEST			OPTIMIZER - 3		OPTIMIZER - 3
		SABERCAT	PROSPECTIVE	OPTIMIZER	DULLAHAN			PROSPECTIVE - 3		PROSPECTIVE - 3
		WENT THE DAY WELL	ROUSING SERMON	PROSPECTIVE	OPTIMIZER			ROUSING SERMON - 3		ROUSING SERMON - 3
			SABERCAT	ROUSING SERMON	PROSPECTIVE			SABERCAT - 3		SABERCAT - 3
			TAKE CHARGE INDY	SABERCAT	TRINNIBERG			TRINNIBERG - 3		TRINNIBERG - 3
			TRINNIBERG	UNION RAGS				UNION RAGS - 2		DONE TALKING - 2
			UNION RAGS	WENT THE DAY WELL				WENT THE DAY WELL - 2		UNION RAGS - 2
				(MY ADONIS)				ALPHA - 1		WENT THE DAY WELL - 2
								DADDY LONG LEGS - 1		ALPHA - 1
								DONE TALKING - 1		DADDY LONG LEGS - 1
								DULLAHAN - 1		DULLAHAN - 1
								EL PADRINO - 1		I'LL HAVE ANOTHER - 1
								TAKE CHARGE INDY - 1		TAKE CHARGE INDY - 1
								(MY ADONIS - 1)		(MY ADONIS - 1)

Live longshots: Daddy Nose Best, El Padrino, I'll Have Another, Take Charge Indy