Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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Dosage and Two-Year-Old Form:
A Predictor of Classic Performance

Kentucky Derby "Dual Qualifiers" Since 1972
Based on DI¹⁾ and Two-Year-Old Form²⁾

SUMMARY:

- 137 qualifiers, 129 betting interests
- 505 non-qualifiers
- 23 qualifiers finished 1st, 15 2nd, and 10 3rd
- 48 of 137 qualifiers finished in-the-money (35%)
- 68 of 505 non-qualifiers finished in-the-money (13%)
- 38 races (with a Dual Qualifier starter), 9 exactas, 5 trifectas
- Flat $2 win bet on all qualifiers yields 35% profit ($367.20 collected on $272.00 wagered)
- 38 qualifiers won at least one classic race (28%)
- 21 non-qualifiers won at least one classic race (4%)

1) DI of 4.00 or less

2) Ranked within 10 pounds of the highweight on the Experimental Free Handicap as a two-year-old or was designated juvenile champion in another country; Note: Both Winning Colors (1988) and Sunday Silence (1989) were among the best two-year-olds of their year but were excluded from ranking among the leaders on the Experimental Free Handicap because of restrictions for inclusion based on their level of competition.  Similar arguments, based on pedigree and two-year-old form, could be made for other Derby winners Grindstone (1996), Funny Cide (2003), Smarty Jones (2004) and Barbaro (2006).  In all cases, these were superior juveniles with a DI less than or equal to 4.00 which confirmed their class as early three-year-olds.  They are displayed in Italics in the Selected Non-Qualifier column of the table.  If you include them among the elite juveniles with a DI of 4.00 or less, such horses have won 28 of the last 38 Derbies (74%).

These two factors, a pedigree balanced in speed and stamina plus a demonstration of high class, early maturity, appear to be important for competitive performance in the Kentucky Derby. Current form in the pre-Derby preps at distances less than the 10 furlongs of the Derby may be less significant.

Note: Bold face or italics indicates a winner of at least one classic race.