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Dosage and
Two-Year-Old Form:
A Predictor of Classic Performance
Kentucky Derby
"Dual Qualifiers" Since 1972
Based on DI1) and Two-Year-Old Form2)
| YEAR
(STARTERS) |
QUALIFIERS
(FINISH) |
SELECTED
NON-QUALIFIERS |
| 1972 (13) |
RIVA RIDGE (1st, $1.50-1) |
Big Spruce |
| |
Hold Your Peace (3rd) |
No Le Hace |
| |
Freetex (6th) |
|
| 1973 (13) |
SECRETARIAT (1st, $1.50-1)* |
Sham |
| |
Angle Light (10th)* |
Our Native |
| |
* entry |
Forego |
| |
|
Shecky Greene |
| 1974 (23) |
CANNONADE (1st, $1.50-1) |
Little Current |
| |
|
Judger |
| |
|
Flip Sal |
| 1975 (15) |
FOOLISH PLEASURE (1st, $1.90-1) |
Diabolo |
| |
|
Master Derby |
| |
|
Avatar |
| 1976 (9) |
BOLD FORBES (1st, $3.00-1) |
On the Sly |
| |
Honest Pleasure (2nd) |
|
| |
Elocutionist (3rd) |
|
| |
Cojak (6th) |
|
| 1977 (15) |
SEATTLE SLEW (1st, $0.50-1) |
Run Dusty Run |
| |
Get the Axe (4th) |
Giboulee |
| |
For the Moment (7th) |
Affiliate |
| |
Nostalgia (13th) |
Flag Officer |
| |
|
Bob's Dusty |
| 1978 (11) |
AFFIRMED (1st, $1.80-1) |
Sensitive Prince |
| |
Alydar (2nd) |
Special Honor |
| |
Believe It (3rd) |
Esops Foibles |
| 1979 (10) |
SPECTACULAR BID (1st, $0.60-1) |
Flying Paster |
| |
General Assembly (2nd) |
Screen King |
| |
Golden Act (3rd) |
Lot o' Gold |
| |
|
Shamgo |
| 1980 (13) |
GENUINE RISK (1st, $13.30-1) |
Jaklin Klugman |
| |
Rumbo (2nd) |
Gold Stage |
| |
Rockhill Native (5th) |
Super Moment |
| |
Plugged Nickle (7th) |
|
| |
Execution's Reason (11th) |
|
| 1981 (21) |
PLEASANT COLONY
(1st, $3.50-1) |
Tap Shoes |
| |
Pass the Tab (6th) |
Well Decorated |
| |
Noble Nashua (9th) |
Woodchopper |
| |
Cure the Blues (15th) |
Bold Ego |
| |
|
Proud Appeal |
| |
|
Top Avenger |
| 1982 (19) |
GATO DEL SOL (1st, $21.20-1) |
El Baba |
| |
Laser Light (2nd) |
Reinvested |
| |
Cassaleria (13th) |
Muttering |
| |
|
Air Forbws Won |
| |
|
Star Gallant |
| |
|
Majesty's Prince |
| |
|
Cupecoy's Joy |
| |
|
Wavering Monarch |
| |
|
Royal Roberto |
| |
|
Bold Style |
| 1983 (20) |
SUNNY'S HALO (1st, $2.50-1) |
Desert Wine |
| |
Caveat (3rd) |
Highland Park |
| |
Pax in Bello (7th) |
Total Departure |
| |
|
Slew o' Gold |
| |
|
Marfa |
| |
|
Play Fellow |
| |
|
Balboa Native |
| |
|
Chumming |
| |
|
Explosive Wagon |
| |
|
Paris Prince |
| 1984 (20) |
SWALE (1st, $3.40-1) |
Althea |
| |
Fali Time (4th) |
At the Threshold |
| |
Life's Magic (8th) |
Gate Dancer |
| |
|
Pine Circle |
| |
|
Silent King |
| |
|
Taylor's Special |
| |
|
Vanlandingham |
| 1985 (13) |
SPEND A BUCK (1st, $4.10-1) |
Chief's Crown |
| |
Stephan's Odyssey (2nd) |
Tank's Prospect |
| |
|
Eternal Prince |
| |
|
Proud Truth |
| |
|
Rhoman Rule |
| |
|
Skywalker |
| 1986 (16) |
FERDINAND (1st, $17.70-1) |
Snow Chief |
| |
Groovy (16th) |
Badger Land |
| |
|
Mogambo |
| |
|
Broad Brush |
| |
|
Rampage |
| |
|
Vernon Castle |
| 1987 (17) |
ALYSHEBA (1st, $8.40-1) |
Cryptoclearance |
| |
Bet Twice (2nd) |
Gulch |
| |
Conquistarose (9th) |
Leo Castelli |
| |
Capote (16th) |
Masterful Advocate |
| |
Demons Begone (DNF) |
|
| 1988 (17) |
Forty Niner (2nd) |
WINNING COLORS |
| |
Regal Classic (5th) |
Risen Star |
| |
Kingpost (14th) |
Seeking the Gold |
| |
|
Private Terms |
| |
|
Brian's Time |
| |
|
Proper Reality |
| 1989 (15) |
Easy Goer (2nd) |
SUNDAY SILENCE |
| |
Hawkster (5th) |
Awe Inspiring |
| |
Irish Actor (7th) |
|
| 1990 (15) |
UNBRIDLED (1st, $10.80-1) |
Silver Ending |
| |
Summer Squall (2nd) |
Land Rush |
| |
Pleasant Tap (3rd) |
Thirty Six Red |
| |
Mister Frisky (8th) |
|
| 1991 (16) |
Best Pal (2nd) |
STRIKE THE GOLD |
| |
Fly So Free (5th) |
Alydavid |
| |
Hansel (10th) |
Corporate Report |
| |
Happy Jazz Band (11th) |
Lost Mountain |
| |
|
Mane Minister |
| |
|
Green Alligator |
| 1992 (18) |
Pine Bluff (5th) |
LIL E. TEE |
| |
Arazi (8th) |
Casual Lies |
| |
|
Dance Floor |
| |
|
Technology |
| |
|
Dr. Devious |
| 1993 (19) |
SEA HERO (1st, $12.90-1) |
Prairie Bayou |
| |
Silver of Silver (8th) |
Personal Hope |
| |
Truth Of It All (10th) |
Bull inthe Heather |
| |
|
Storm Tower |
| |
|
Corby |
| 1994 (14) |
GO FOR GIN (1st, $9.10-1) |
Holy Bull |
| |
Blumin Affair (3rd) |
Strodes Creek |
| |
Brocco (4th) |
Soul of the Matter |
| |
Tabasco Cat (6th) |
Southern Rhythm |
| |
Valiant Nature (13th) |
|
| 1995 (19) |
THUNDER GULCH (1st, $24.50-1) |
Afternoon Deelites |
| |
Tejano Run (2nd) |
Jumron |
| |
Timber Country (3rd)* |
Suave Prospect |
| |
Eltish (6th) |
|
| |
Talkin Man (12th) |
|
| |
Serena's Song (16th)* |
|
| |
* entry |
|
| 1996 (19) |
Cavonnier (2nd) |
GRINDSTONE* |
| |
Unbridled's Song (5th) |
Prince of Thieves |
| |
Editor's Note (6th)* |
Alyrob |
| |
Diligence (9th) |
Skip Away |
| |
Matty G (18th) |
Louis Quatorze |
| |
Honour and Glory (19th) |
|
| |
* entry |
|
| 1997 (13) |
SILVER CHARM (1st, $4.00-1) |
Captain Bodgit |
| |
Hello (8th) |
Free House |
| |
|
Pulpit |
| |
|
Concerto |
| |
|
Crypto Star |
| 1998 (15) |
NO DUAL QUALIFIERS |
|
| 1999 (19) |
Cat Thief (3rd) |
CHARISMATIC |
| |
Prime Timber (4th) |
Menifee |
| |
Excellent Meeting (5th) |
Stephen Got Even |
| |
Lemon Drop Kid (9th) |
Worldly Manner |
| |
Answer Lively (10th) |
|
| |
Three Ring (19th) |
|
| 2000 (19) |
More Than Ready (4th) |
FUSAICHI PEGASUS |
| |
Captain Steve (8th) |
War Chant |
| |
Exchange Rate (12th) |
Hal's Hope |
| |
Anees (13th) |
The Deputy |
| |
High Yield (15th) |
|
| 2001 (17) |
Point Given (5th) |
MONARCHOS |
| |
A P Valentine (7th) |
Congaree |
| |
Dollar Bill (15th) |
Express Tour |
| |
|
Millennium Wind |
| |
|
Balto Star |
| 2002 (18) |
Came Home (6th) |
WAR EMBLEM |
| |
Johannesburg (8th) |
Harlan's Holiday |
| |
Saarland (10th) |
Medaglia d'Oro |
| |
|
Essence of Dubai |
| |
|
Perfect Drift |
| 2003 (16) |
NO DUAL QUALIFIERS |
|
| 2004 (18) |
Lion Heart (2nd) |
SMARTY JONES |
| |
The Cliff's Edge (5th) |
Limehouse |
| |
Action This Day (6th) |
Tapit |
| |
Read the Footnotes (7th) |
Castledale |
| |
Birdstone (8th) |
Friends Lake |
| 2005 (20) |
Afleet Alex
(3rd) |
GIACOMO |
| |
Sun King
(15th) |
Closing
Argument |
| |
|
Bellamy Road |
| |
|
Bandini |
| |
|
High Fly |
| |
|
Wilko |
| 2006 (20) |
Brother
Derek (4th) |
BARBARO |
| |
Private Vow
(17th) |
Sweetnorthernsaint |
| |
|
Bon and
John |
| |
|
Bluegrass
Cat |
| |
|
Point
Determined |
| |
|
A. P.
Warrior |
| 2007 (20) |
STREET
SENSE (1st, $4.90-1) |
Hard Spun |
| |
Circular
Quay (6th) |
Curlin |
| |
Any Given Saturday (8th) |
Tiago |
| |
Nobiz Like Shobiz (10th) |
Dominican |
| |
Great Hunter (13th) |
Zanjero |
| |
Liquidity (14th) |
|
| |
Scat Daddy (18th) |
|
| |
Stormello (19th) |
|
| 2008 (20) |
Tale of
Ekati (4th) |
BIG
BROWN |
| |
Pyro (8th) |
Colonel
John |
| |
Court Vision (13th) |
Eight
Belles |
| |
|
Gayego |
| |
|
Z Fortune |
|
SUMMARY:
- 123 qualifiers, 118 betting interests
- 461 non-qualifiers
- 22 qualifiers finished 1st, 14 2nd, and 10 3rd
- 46 of 123 qualifiers finished in-the-money (37%)
- 60 of 461 non-qualifiers finished in-the-money (13%)
- 35 races (with a Dual Qualifier starter), 9 exactas, 5 trifectas
- Flat $2 win bet on all qualifiers yields 44% profit ($349.20
collected on $242.00 wagered)
- 36 qualifiers won at least one classic race (30%)
- 19 non-qualifiers won at least one classic race (4%)
1) DI of 4.00 or less
2) Ranked within 10 pounds of the highweight on the Experimental Free
Handicap as a two-year-old or was designated juvenile champion in another country;
Note:
Both Winning Colors (1988) and Sunday Silence (1989) were among the best two-year-olds of
their year but were excluded from ranking among the leaders on the Experimental Free Handicap because of
restrictions for inclusion based on their level of competition. Similar
arguments, based on pedigree and two-year-old form, could be made for other
Derby winners such as Grindstone (1996), Funny Cide (2003), Smarty Jones (2004)
and Barbaro (2006). In all cases, these were superior juveniles which confirmed their
class as early three-year-olds.
These two factors, a pedigree balanced in speed and stamina plus a
demonstration of high class, early maturity, appear to be important for competitive
performance in the Kentucky Derby. Current form in the pre-Derby preps at distances less
than the 10 furlongs of the Derby may be less significant.
Note: Bold face or italics indicates a winner of at least one classic
race.
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