Dual Qualifiers in Triple Crown Races

The following table displays the success of Dual Qualifiers in Triple Crown races since 1973. The breakdown is by decade and by race and includes an overall summary for each. The measure of success is IV, or Impact Value. The tables include data only for those races in which a Dual Qualifier started.

IV is the ratio of success to opportunity. In this case, IV is calculated by dividing the percentage of Dual Qualifier winners by the percentage of Dual Qualifiers in the field. In a random world, if 20% of the starters are Dual Qualifiers and 20% of the races are won by Dual Qualifiers, the IV would be 1.00. However, if 20% of the starters are Dual Qualifiers and 40% of the races are won by Dual Qualifiers, the IV would be 2.00 (or 40%/20%).

Another example relates to post position. Without an advantage, each horse starting from post positions one through ten should have a ten percent chance of winning. If the historical fact is that 40% of all winners start from post position three, then the IV for starting from post position three is 4.00.

The data reveal that between 1973 and 1999, each decade and each Triple Crown race has an IV greater than 1.00, from IV 1.45 for the Preakness in the 1980's to IV 5.05 for the Kentucky Derby in the 1970's. The pattern continues into the new millennium except for the Derby. The IV for the Derby has declined in each decade between the 1973 and 2009, but the IV's for the Preakness and Belmont have held up well. The overall IV of 2.74 for all the Triple Crown races in which a Dual Qualifier started since 1973 supports the notion that Dual Qualifier characteristics are indeed an advantage in classic performance.

Years		Derby		Preakness		Belmont		All
2010-2019	Races	2		1		1		4
	Winners	1	50.0%	1	100.0%	0		2	50.0%
	DQs	11	28.2%	4	33.3%	2		17	27.0%
	DQ Winners	9.1%		25.0%		0.0%		11.8
	Starters	39		12		12		63
	IV	1.77		3.00		0.00		1.85
Years		Derby		Preakness		Belmont		All
2000-2009	Races	9		7		5		21
	Winners	1	11.1%	3	42.9%	3	60.0%	7	33.3%
	DQs	34	18.2%	17	23.0%	9	23.7%	60	20.1%
	DQ Winners	2.9%		17.6%		33.3%		11.7%
	Starters	187		74		48		309
	IV	0.61		1.87		3.20		1.72
Years		Derby		Preakness		Belmont		All
1990-1999	Races	9		9		10		28
	Winners	5	55.6%	6	66.7%	6	60.0%	17	60.7%
	DQs	38	25.0%	19	19.2%	21	20.0%	78	21.9%
	DQ Winners	13.2%		31.6%		28.6%		21.8%
	Starters	152		99		105		356
	IV	2.22		3.47		3.00		2.77
Years		Derby		Preakness		Belmont		All
1980-1989	Races	10		10		10		30
	Winners	8	80.0%	2	20.0%	5	50.0%	15	50.0%
	DQs	33	19.3%	13	13.8%	14	13.5%	60	16.3%
	DQ Winners	24.2%		15.4%		35.7%		25.0%
	Starters	171		94		104		369
	IV	4.15		1.45		3.71		3.08
Years		Derby		Preakness		Belmont		All
1973-1979	Races	7		7		7		21
	Winners	7	100.0%	5	71.4%	4	57.1%	16	76.2%
	DQs	21	21.9%	15	26.8%	11	20.4%	47	22.8%
	DQ Winners	33.3%		33.3%		36.4%		34.0%
	Starters	96		56		54		206
	IV	4.57		2.67		2.81		3.34
Years		Derby		Preakness		Belmont		All
1973-2011	Races	37		37		33		104
	Winners	22	59.5%	14	48.5%	18	54.5%	57	54.8%
	DQs	137	21.2%	68	19.8%	57	17.6%	262	20.1%
	DQ Winners	16.1%		25.0%		31.6%		21.8%
	Starters	645		3.35		323		1303
	IV	2.80		2.46		3.09		2.73