Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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Dual Qualifiers in Triple Crown Races

The following table displays the success of Dual Qualifiers in Triple Crown races since 1973.  The breakdown is by decade and by race and includes an overall summary for each.  The measure of success is IV, or Impact Value.  The tables include data only  for those races in which a Dual Qualifier started.

IV is the ratio of success to opportunity.  In this case, IV is calculated by dividing the percentage of Dual Qualifier winners by the percentage of Dual Qualifiers in the field.  In a random world, if 20% of the starters are Dual Qualifiers and 20% of the races are won by Dual Qualifiers, the IV would be 1.00.  However, if 20% of the starters are Dual Qualifiers and 40% of the races are won by Dual Qualifiers, the IV would be 2.00 (or 40%/20%).

Another example relates to post position.  Without an advantage, each horse starting from post positions one through ten should have a ten percent chance of winning.  If the historical fact is that 40% of all winners start from post position three, then the IV for starting from post position three is 4.00.

The data reveal that between 1973 and 1999, each decade and each Triple Crown race has an IV greater than 1.00, from IV 1.45 for the Preakness in the 1980's to IV 5.05 for the Kentucky Derby in the 1970's.  The pattern continues into the new millennium except for the Derby.  The IV for the Derby has declined in each decade since the 1970's, but the IV's for the Preakness and Belmont have held up well.  The overall IV close to 3.00 for all 95 Triple Crown races in which a Dual Qualifier started since 1973 supports the notion that Dual Qualifier characteristics are indeed an advantage in classic performance.

Years       Derby % Preakness % Belmont % All %
2000-2008   Races 8   6   3   17  
  Winners 1 12.5% 2 33.3% 3 100.0% 6 35.3%
  DQs 31 18.5% 13 21.3% 6 20.7% 50 19.4%
  DQ Winners 3.2%   15.4%   50.0%   12.0%  
  Starters 168   61   29   258  
  IV 0.68   1.56   4.83   1.82  
Years       Derby % Preakness % Belmont % All %
1990-1999   Races 9   9   10   28  
  Winners 5 55.6% 6 66.7% 6 60.0% 17 60.7%
  DQs 39 25.7% 19 19.2% 21 20.0% 79 22.2%
  DQ Winners 12.8%   31.6%   28.6%   21.5%  
  Starters 152   99   105   356  
  IV 2.17   3.47   3.00   2.74  
Years       Derby % Preakness % Belmont % All %
1980-1989   Races 10   10   10   30  
  Winners 8 80.0% 2 20.0% 5 50.0% 15 50.0%
  DQs 33 19.3% 13 13.8% 14 13.5% 60 16.3%
  DQ Winners 24.2%   15.4%   35.7%   25.0%  
  Starters 171   94   104   369  
  IV 4.15   1.45   3.71   3.08  
Years       Derby % Preakness % Belmont % All %
1973-1979   Races 7   7   7   21  
  Winners 7 100.0% 5 71.4% 4 57.1% 16 76.2%
  DQs 19 19.8% 15 26.8% 11 20.4% 45 21.8%
  DQ Winners 36.8%   33.3%   36.4%   35.6%  
  Starters 96   56   54   206  
  IV 5.05   2.67   2.81   3.49  
Years       Derby % Preakness % Belmont % All %
1973-2008   Races 34   32   30   96  
  Winners 21 61.8% 15 46.9% 18 60.0% 54 56.3%
  DQs 122 20.8% 60 19.4% 52 17.8% 234 19.7%
  DQ Winners 17.2%   25.0%   34.6%   23.1%  
  Starters 587   310   292   1189  
  IV 2.97   2.42   3.37   2.86