Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
Main Menu         Search

Two-Year-Old Identification System

Background

This program is designed to provide serious opportunities for potential buyers of young racing and/or breeding stock.  The focus is on two-year-olds with graded stakes potential very early in their racing career.  We seek juveniles that are suitable for purchase and identified before the full scope of their talent is exposed, usually within their first few races.  We are at the front end of a process that involves the monitoring and evaluation of two-year-old races throughout the U.S. and Canada on a daily basis from early April through the end of the year.  This is accomplished through a proprietary “Fatigue Curve Analysis” technique (the “FC System”) with a proven record of success.   The methodology is based in part on the concept of Performance Figures developed by Steven A. Roman, Ph.D., creator of the widely known “Dosage Index”.  Performance Figures measure the true quality of a race and rely on a combination of fractional and final times converted into a single number.  Thus, they represent performance integrated over the entire race.  In that sense, they differ from conventional speed figures such as Beyer Figures that depend only on the final time.  Parameters such as distance, sex and time of year are critical components of the analysis.  The level of performance required to pass the first screen will increase throughout the racing season, commensurate with developing maturity.  Historical records suggest only 200 or so two-year-olds per year from among the thousands of two-year-old starters will meet the required performance criteria within their first few starts.  Other parameters are incorporated into the evaluation, including energy distribution characteristics and advanced pedigree analysis.

Attachment A displays representative data for FC System two-year-olds of 1995, 1996 and 2010.  The data cover the combined two-year-old and three-year-old racing seasons of two-year-olds identified in 1995 as well as the two-year-old racing season for the two-year-olds identified in 1996 and 2010.  The results clearly show that the FC System horses are not only excellent two-year-olds, but that they maintain their quality at three.  Note, in particular, the high percentage of stakes winners and total stakes horses. The selected data are typical and, as suggested in the examples, similar results have been obtained from year to year for well over a decade.

Attachment B is a listing of all the FC System juveniles found between 1993 and 2011 that ultimately won Grade 1 stakes through 2010.  There are 1446 stakes winners out of a total of 3705 two-year-olds identified (39.0%).  Of these, 350 won Grade 1 stakes, or 9.4% of all FC releases since 1993.  This includes over 140 two-year-olds of 2011, some of which will inevitably win graded stakes at three or older, thereby raising the percentages.  Over the years, many of these were purchased by private clients, including Dance Diane, Intrepid Son, Marlin, Oh Nellie, Tipically Irish, Victory Speech, Worldly Manner and Rhythm Band.  Still others were available for purchase but ultimately rejected by clients for reasons of their own.  These include champions and major winners Skip Away, Silver Charm, Hidden Lake, Captain Bodgit, Frisk Me Now, as well as Spend a Buck, Mom’s Command and more in prior years.

Additional stakes horses purchased by clients through the years include Irish champion Eloquent Minister, Maryland juvenile champion Haymaker, Chief Seattle, Breech, Purdue Queen, Never Wavering, Hippomenes, Bigger Issues, My Peace, Wolf Prince, Thrill Courier, Tropicool, Lord Peregrine, Wired to Fly and others.

Since 1993, fifty-eight identified FC system juveniles won a Breeders' Cup race.  These include four in the Classic (Cat Thief, Drosselmeyer, Skip Away and Volponi); five in the Ladies Classic (Ajina, Ashado, Beautiful Pleasure, Escena and Spain); two in the Filly & Mare Turf (Perfect Sting and Soaring Softly); sixteen in the Juvenile (Action This Day, Anees, Boston Harbor, Favorite Trick, Hansen, Johannesburg, Macho Uno, Midshipman, Shanghai Bobby, Stevie Wonderboy, Street Sense, Unbridled's Song, Uncle Mo, War Pass, Wilko and Vindication); eighteen in the Juvenile Fillies (Awesome Feather, Beholder, Caressing, Cash Run, Countess Diana, Dreaming of Anna, Flanders, Folklore, Halfbridled, Indian Blessing, My Miss Aurelia, She Be Wild, Silverbulletday, Stardom Bound, Storm Flag Flying, Storm Song, Sweet Catomine and Tempera); four in the Mile (Artie Schiller, Court Vision, Miesque's Approval and Singletary); four in the Sprint (Artax, Big Drama, Reraise and Squirtle Squirt); two in the Dirt Mile (Corinthian and Tapizar); two in the Juvenile Turf (Donativum and Nownownow), two in the Juvenile Fillies Turf (Maram and Tapitsfly); and one in the Juvenile Sprint (Secret Circle).  Also since 1993, twenty-seven FC juveniles have won an American or Canadian classic race.  These are Afleet Alex, Animal Kingdom, Archers Bay, Barbaro, Big Brown, Birdstone, Commendable, Drosselmeyer, Edenwold, Funny Cide, Giacomo, Grindstone, I’ll Have Another, Inglorious, Lemon Drop Kid, Lookin At Lucky, Louis Quatorze, Niigon, Point Given, Rachel Alexandra, Silver Charm, Street Sense, Super Saver, Touch Gold, Union Rags, Wando and Woodcarver.

What are the advantages and disadvantages to our approach?  The one disadvantage could be that these horses may cost more than they would as weanlings, yearlings or perhaps, but not necessarily, as two-year-olds in training.  However, the higher price is more than compensated by the advantages.  First, the horses have demonstrated competitive ability under race conditions, something not always assured for horses bought prior to racing.  Second, the measure of their quality places them among the elite of their peers and, barring injury, they can be expected to improve.  Third, the expenses of raising and training a weanling or yearling are eliminated.  Fourth, once a two-year-old is identified, its younger sibling, its dam and its dam's siblings present further opportunities for profit because of the probability that their pedigree will improve.  For example, close up relatives of Fatigue Curve releases in 2009 had an average selling price of $155,881 and a median selling price of $68,500 t the 2009 November Keeneland Sale.  By comparison, the overall sale average and median were $57,477 and $20,000, respectively.  Basically then, much of the risk and cost associated with unraced horses is removed and new pinhooking or breeding opportunities are created.  Obviously there must be a physical evaluation and a pedigree assessment prior to any purchase, but that would be true in all cases.

If you have an interest and would like to learn more, please contact us by e-mail at sar130@columbia.edu.

Curriculum Vitae of Steve Roman

• Born 1943, New York City, now living in Costa Rica.
• B.S. in Chemistry, City University of New York, ΦBK and magna cum laude, 1963; M.A. in Organic Chemistry, Columbia University, 1964; Ph.D. in Physical-Organic Chemistry, Columbia University, 1967.
• Post-Doctoral Research at Harvard University (1967-1969) and the University of Texas at Austin (1969).
• Author of 53 U.S. agricultural and animal health chemical patents.
• Author of DOSAGE: PEDIGREE AND PERFORMANCE published by the Russell Meerdink Co., 2003.
• “Hands-on” in the horse industry for forty years as an owner, breeder and early-stage trainer of performance and conformation show horses.
• Thirty years in the Thoroughbred racing business as an owner, consultant, writer and educator.
• Creator of the “Dosage Index”, a tool for classifying Thoroughbred pedigrees according to aptitudinal type.
• Creator of Performance Figures (PFs), a superior alternative to final time-based speed figures.
• Internationally recognized authority on the relationship between Thoroughbred pedigree and racing performance.
• Advisor to Thoroughbred owners, breeders and trainers.
• Named by Daily Racing Form as one of the ten most influential people in 20^th century Thoroughbred handicapping.
• Originator of the “FC System” that has been successfully operating on a private basis for over twenty-five years.

Attachment A.  Typical FC System Statistics

Attachment B.  FC System Two-Year-Olds (1993-2012)
That Became Grade 1 Stakes Winners (through December 2012)