Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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Prep Race Pace Parameters for 1998 Kentucky Derby Entries

Below is presented a variety of pace parameters for Derby entries in 1998 prep races at a mile or more on dirt.  In addition to the horse, race, and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 10f race (10fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race (10fLQ).  Following 10f is Adj10f which is the projected 10f time adjusted for the differences in track speed between the track on which the prep race was run and Churchill Downs.  The various pace parameters are described here. 

The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are displayed in the following table.

3Fr %E 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
>=51.56 <=52.08 <=121.68 <=24.94 <=25.33

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures. 
 

HORSE RACE DIST SLOPE INT CC EP SP AP 1Fr 2Fr 3Fr TE %E 4f 6f 8f 9f 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
Artax SA Derby 9.00 1.0435 1.0390 0.99982 56.38 53.89 55.13 56.63 55.88 51.41 107.8 52.30 46.48 70.96 95.81 108.34 120.93 24.85 25.12
Artax San Felipe 8.50 1.0282 1.0508 0.99999 55.93 54.75 55.34 56.41 55.00 53.57 109.5 51.08 46.76 70.94 95.36 107.63 119.95 24.42 24.59
Artax Santa Catalina 8.50 1.0586 1.0245 0.99995 56.41 53.99 55.20 57.39 54.54 51.56 108.0 52.23 45.91 70.51 95.62 108.31 121.10 25.10 25.48
Artax SA Alw 8.50 1.0448 1.0403 0.99995 55.77 53.75 54.76 56.41 54.54 51.73 107.5 51.88 46.70 71.33 96.34 108.96 121.64 25.01 25.29
Basic Trainee Wood 9.00 1.0349 1.0492 0.99988 55.82 53.82 54.82 55.98 55.50 51.82 107.6 51.88 47.02 71.54 96.35 108.84 121.38 24.81 25.03
Basic Trainee OBS Championship 8.50 1.0430 1.0551 1.00000 53.80 52.52 53.16 54.77 51.96 51.24 105.0 51.24 48.21 73.58 99.33 112.31 125.36 25.75 26.03
Basic Trainee Whirlaway 8.50 1.0446 1.0492 0.99989 54.78 52.54 53.66 55.25 53.86 50.31 105.1 52.12 47.65 72.78 98.30 111.17 124.10 25.51 25.80
Basic Trainee AQU Alw 8.50 1.0459 1.0513 1.00000 54.10 52.51 53.31 55.04 52.34 50.93 105.0 51.52 47.97 73.30 99.04 112.02 125.07 25.73 26.03
Basic Trainee AQU Alw 8.50 1.0327 1.0671 0.99995 53.59 51.99 52.79 53.96 52.87 50.38 104.0 51.53 48.84 74.24 99.93 112.85 125.82 25.68 25.90
Cape Town Blue Grass 9.00 1.0168 1.0642 0.99979 55.79 54.11 54.95 55.43 56.51 52.43 108.2 51.56 47.47 71.69 96.05 108.27 120.52 24.36 24.47
Cape Town Florida Derby 9.00 1.0034 1.0793 0.99991 55.14 54.10 54.62 54.78 55.83 53.06 108.2 50.96 48.24 72.47 96.72 108.85 120.99 24.25 24.27
Cape Town FOY 8.50 1.0597 1.0324 0.99959 55.81 52.28 54.04 56.17 55.12 48.75 104.6 53.35 46.81 71.94 97.58 110.56 123.62 25.64 26.03
Cape Town Holy Bull 8.50 1.0061 1.0810 0.99996 54.40 53.64 54.02 54.22 54.75 52.88 107.3 50.69 48.61 73.10 97.63 109.92 122.21 24.54 24.58
Chilito Falmingo 9.00 1.0599 1.0277 0.99998 55.77 53.54 54.66 56.90 53.65 51.30 107.1 52.08 46.33 71.21 96.60 109.44 122.37 25.39 25.77
Chilito GP Alw 8.50 1.0456 1.0452 0.99949 55.62 52.35 53.99 55.46 55.93 49.09 104.7 53.12 47.28 72.24 97.60 110.39 123.24 25.35 25.65
Favorite Trick AK Derby 9.00 1.0734 1.0159 0.99999 55.93 53.32 54.63 57.39 53.22 50.71 106.6 52.47 45.94 70.99 96.67 109.70 122.84 25.68 26.16
Halory Hunter Blue Grass 9.00 1.0054 1.0717 0.99990 55.79 54.79 55.29 55.43 56.51 53.78 109.6 50.90 47.54 71.47 95.44 107.44 119.45 23.97 24.01
Halory Hunter Florida Derby 9.00 0.9994 1.0852 0.99990 54.82 53.88 54.35 54.35 55.72 52.93 107.8 50.85 48.64 72.94 97.24 109.38 121.53 24.30 24.29
Halory Hunter FOY 8.50 0.9746 1.1077 1.00000 54.11 54.55 54.33 53.57 55.12 55.00 109.1 49.59 49.48 73.46 97.24 109.06 120.86 23.77 23.62
Halory Hunter GP Alw 8.50 0.9901 1.1008 0.99999 53.52 53.40 53.46 53.22 54.09 53.28 106.8 50.11 49.76 74.34 98.83 111.06 123.27 24.50 24.43
Hanuman Highway AK Derby 9.00 1.1129 0.9994 0.99819 55.61 49.25 52.43 55.92 55.04 42.88 98.5 56.46 46.72 73.36 101.04 115.19 129.52 27.68 28.48
Hanuman Highway SA Alw 8.00 1.0557 1.0289 0.99996 56.13 53.83 54.98 57.25 54.10 51.54 107.7 52.11 46.18 70.85 96.00 108.71 121.50 25.14 25.50
Hanuman Highway SA Alw 8.00 1.0342 1.0631 0.99972 54.32 51.72 53.02 54.36 54.23 49.13 103.4 52.53 48.50 73.77 99.33 112.20 125.11 25.56 25.78
Indian Charlie SA Derby 9.00 1.0303 1.0452 0.99996 56.59 55.04 55.82 56.96 55.88 53.49 110.1 51.40 46.30 70.31 94.56 106.77 119.01 24.26 24.44
Indian Charlie SA Alw 8.00 1.0269 1.0496 0.99998 56.25 54.96 55.60 56.68 55.41 53.66 109.9 51.18 46.55 70.59 94.85 107.05 119.28 24.26 24.43
Nationalore SA Derby 9.00 1.0240 1.0625 0.99955 55.66 53.20 54.43 55.11 56.72 50.74 106.4 52.31 47.76 72.33 97.11 109.56 122.04 24.78 24.93
Nationalore San Felipe 8.50 0.9901 1.0975 1.00000 53.88 53.97 53.93 53.63 54.37 54.06 107.9 49.94 49.38 73.77 98.08 110.21 122.33 24.31 24.25
Nationalore SA Alw 8.00 1.0049 1.0809 0.99994 54.56 53.68 54.12 54.36 54.95 52.80 107.4 50.80 48.51 72.91 97.35 109.59 121.83 24.44 24.47
Nationalore SA MSW 8.50 1.0533 1.0390 0.99983 55.34 52.59 53.96 55.88 54.30 49.84 105.2 52.60 47.11 72.21 97.77 110.69 123.68 25.56 25.91
Old Trieste SA Alw 8.00 1.0460 1.0308 0.99999 56.73 54.98 55.86 57.64 55.00 53.23 110.0 51.58 45.76 69.94 94.49 106.88 119.33 24.55 24.84
Old Trieste SA Alw 8.00 1.0383 1.0437 0.99982 56.18 53.75 54.96 56.47 55.62 51.32 107.5 52.26 46.65 71.06 95.80 108.27 120.78 24.74 24.98
Parade Ground Wood 9.00 1.0141 1.0676 0.99987 55.58 54.17 54.87 55.29 56.14 52.77 108.3 51.32 47.66 71.91 96.26 108.48 120.71 24.36 24.45
Parade Ground Tampa Bay Derby 8.50 1.0093 1.0802 0.99999 53.94 53.78 53.86 54.34 53.17 53.62 107.6 50.13 48.74 73.38 98.10 110.48 122.88 24.72 24.78
Parade Ground GP Alw 8.50 1.0281 1.0687 0.99983 54.05 52.10 53.08 54.03 54.09 50.15 104.2 51.87 48.71 73.91 99.34 112.13 124.96 25.43 25.62
Real Quiet SA Derby 9.00 1.0118 1.0647 0.99995 56.02 54.99 55.51 55.98 56.09 53.97 110.0 50.92 47.19 71.13 95.16 107.20 119.26 24.03 24.10
Real Quiet San Felipe 8.50 1.0110 1.0661 0.99994 55.86 54.80 55.33 55.77 56.04 53.73 109.6 50.97 47.29 71.25 95.30 107.36 119.42 24.05 24.12
Real Quiet Golden Gate Derby 8.50 1.0901 1.0155 0.99947 55.12 50.44 52.78 55.95 53.55 45.76 100.9 54.63 46.96 73.07 99.98 113.68 127.51 26.91 27.53
Robinwould AK Derby 9.00 1.0669 1.0258 0.99989 55.61 52.68 54.15 56.58 53.83 49.74 105.4 52.77 46.58 71.78 97.57 110.64 123.80 25.79 26.23
Robinwould Rebel 8.50 1.0450 1.0494 0.99995 54.10 53.32 53.71 55.46 51.56 52.55 106.6 50.75 47.70 72.87 98.42 111.31 124.27 25.55 25.85
Robinwould Southwest 8.00 1.1142 0.9973 1.00000 54.13 51.03 52.58 56.76 49.41 47.93 102.1 53.02 46.57 73.17 100.82 114.95 129.27 27.65 28.46
Robinwould OP MSW 8.00 1.0845 1.0136 1.00000 55.00 52.50 53.75 56.90 51.56 50.00 105.0 52.38 46.40 72.02 98.39 111.79 125.32 26.37 26.94
Rock and Roll Tampa Bay Derby 8.50 1.0453 1.0472 1.00000 54.63 53.14 53.88 55.61 52.77 51.65 106.3 51.39 47.49 72.55 98.00 110.84 123.75 25.45 25.75
Rock and Roll Sam F. Davis 8.50 1.0505 1.0492 0.99999 53.95 52.13 53.04 54.90 52.16 50.30 104.3 51.73 48.05 73.57 99.53 112.63 125.82 25.96 26.29
Victory Gallop AK Derby 9.00 1.0320 1.0544 0.99991 55.40 53.57 54.48 55.71 54.83 51.73 107.1 51.73 47.39 72.02 96.91 109.44 122.01 24.89 25.10
Victory Gallop Rebel 8.50 1.0351 1.0582 0.99997 54.03 53.37 53.70 55.09 52.05 52.71 106.7 50.64 48.02 73.06 98.41 111.17 123.98 25.34 25.57

Definition of Pace Terms:

Slope is a measure of fatigue.  It parallels the increase in time required to negotiate an additional distance.  The higher the number, the steeper the slope, indicating that the fatigue rate is greater.  Slopes will generally fall between 0.9 (slow early-fast late) and 1.2 (fast early-slow late).

Int., or Intercept is a measure of early speed and is inversely related to the slope.  In this case, the lower the intercept, the greater the relative early speed.  Intercepts also will usually fall between 0.9 (fast early) and 1.2 (slow early).

CC, or Correlation Coefficient is a measure of how efficiently a horse's speed is used throughout the whole race.  Perfect efficiency is equal to a CC of 1.00000.  Any value below 1.00000 represents less than ideal efficiency, although it is almost always greater than 0.99900.  The very best horses continually display CC's above 0.99990 while lower quality horses may not display CCs that high.

The remaining terms are part of the "Sartin Methodology" for describing pace characteristics as discussed by Tom Brohamer ("Modern Pace Handicapping", by Tom Brohamer, William Morrow and Company, Inc,. New York, 1991):

EP (Early Pace) is velocity in fps (feet-per-second) to the second call.

SP (Sustained Pace) is the average of early pace and the final fraction, thus relating a horse's speed to the second call and his ability to finish.

AP (Average Pace) is the average  of EP and SP.

1Fr (First Fraction), 2Fr (Second Fraction) and 3Fr (Third Fraction) are the average velocities in fps between each of the calls.

TE (Total Energy) is the sum of EP and 3Fr.  It is the total available energy based on current conditions of distance, surface and track as well as inherent ability.

%E (Percent Early) is a relative measure of energy used through the second call (EP/TE).  Speed types display %E figures significantly higher than off-the-pace types, although the absolute numbers are greatly affected by the distance of a race.

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