Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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Prep Race Pace Parameters for 1998 Kentucky Derby Entries

Below is presented a variety of pace parameters for Derby entries in 1998 prep races at a mile or more on dirt.  In addition to the horse, race, and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 10f race (10fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race (10fLQ).  Following 10f is Adj10f which is the projected 10f time adjusted for the differences in track speed between the track on which the prep race was run and Churchill Downs.  The various pace parameters are described here. 

The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are displayed in the following table.

3Fr %E 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
>=51.56 <=52.08 <=121.68 <=24.94 <=25.33

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures. 
 

HORSE RACE DIST SLOPE INT CC EP SP AP 1Fr 2Fr 3Fr TE %E 4f 6f 8f 9f 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
Artax SA Derby 9.00 1.0435 1.0390 0.99982 56.38 53.89 55.13 56.63 55.88 51.41 107.8 52.30 46.48 70.96 95.81 108.34 120.93 24.85 25.12
Artax San Felipe 8.50 1.0282 1.0508 0.99999 55.93 54.75 55.34 56.41 55.00 53.57 109.5 51.08 46.76 70.94 95.36 107.63 119.95 24.42 24.59
Artax Santa Catalina 8.50 1.0586 1.0245 0.99995 56.41 53.99 55.20 57.39 54.54 51.56 108.0 52.23 45.91 70.51 95.62 108.31 121.10 25.10 25.48
Artax SA Alw 8.50 1.0448 1.0403 0.99995 55.77 53.75 54.76 56.41 54.54 51.73 107.5 51.88 46.70 71.33 96.34 108.96 121.64 25.01 25.29
Basic Trainee Wood 9.00 1.0349 1.0492 0.99988 55.82 53.82 54.82 55.98 55.50 51.82 107.6 51.88 47.02 71.54 96.35 108.84 121.38 24.81 25.03
Basic Trainee OBS Championship 8.50 1.0430 1.0551 1.00000 53.80 52.52 53.16 54.77 51.96 51.24 105.0 51.24 48.21 73.58 99.33 112.31 125.36 25.75 26.03
Basic Trainee Whirlaway 8.50 1.0446 1.0492 0.99989 54.78 52.54 53.66 55.25 53.86 50.31 105.1 52.12 47.65 72.78 98.30 111.17 124.10 25.51 25.80
Basic Trainee AQU Alw 8.50 1.0459 1.0513 1.00000 54.10 52.51 53.31 55.04 52.34 50.93 105.0 51.52 47.97 73.30 99.04 112.02 125.07 25.73 26.03
Basic Trainee AQU Alw 8.50 1.0327 1.0671 0.99995 53.59 51.99 52.79 53.96 52.87 50.38 104.0 51.53 48.84 74.24 99.93 112.85 125.82 25.68 25.90
Cape Town Blue Grass 9.00 1.0168 1.0642 0.99979 55.79 54.11 54.95 55.43 56.51 52.43 108.2 51.56 47.47 71.69 96.05 108.27 120.52 24.36 24.47
Cape Town Florida Derby 9.00 1.0034 1.0793 0.99991 55.14 54.10 54.62 54.78 55.83 53.06 108.2 50.96 48.24 72.47 96.72 108.85 120.99 24.25 24.27
Cape Town FOY 8.50 1.0597 1.0324 0.99959 55.81 52.28 54.04 56.17 55.12 48.75 104.6 53.35 46.81 71.94 97.58 110.56 123.62 25.64 26.03
Cape Town Holy Bull 8.50 1.0061 1.0810 0.99996 54.40 53.64 54.02 54.22 54.75 52.88 107.3 50.69 48.61 73.10 97.63 109.92 122.21 24.54 24.58
Chilito Falmingo 9.00 1.0599 1.0277 0.99998 55.77 53.54 54.66 56.90 53.65 51.30 107.1 52.08 46.33 71.21 96.60 109.44 122.37 25.39 25.77
Chilito GP Alw 8.50 1.0456 1.0452 0.99949 55.62 52.35 53.99 55.46 55.93 49.09 104.7 53.12 47.28 72.24 97.60 110.39 123.24 25.35 25.65
Favorite Trick AK Derby 9.00 1.0734 1.0159 0.99999 55.93 53.32 54.63 57.39 53.22 50.71 106.6 52.47 45.94 70.99 96.67 109.70 122.84 25.68 26.16
Halory Hunter Blue Grass 9.00 1.0054 1.0717 0.99990 55.79 54.79 55.29 55.43 56.51 53.78 109.6 50.90 47.54 71.47 95.44 107.44 119.45 23.97 24.01
Halory Hunter Florida Derby 9.00 0.9994 1.0852 0.99990 54.82 53.88 54.35 54.35 55.72 52.93 107.8 50.85 48.64 72.94 97.24 109.38 121.53 24.30 24.29
Halory Hunter FOY 8.50 0.9746 1.1077 1.00000 54.11 54.55 54.33 53.57 55.12 55.00 109.1 49.59 49.48 73.46 97.24 109.06 120.86 23.77 23.62
Halory Hunter GP Alw 8.50 0.9901 1.1008 0.99999 53.52 53.40 53.46 53.22 54.09 53.28 106.8 50.11 49.76 74.34 98.83 111.06 123.27 24.50 24.43
Hanuman Highway AK Derby 9.00 1.1129 0.9994 0.99819 55.61 49.25 52.43 55.92 55.04 42.88 98.5 56.46 46.72 73.36 101.04 115.19 129.52 27.68 28.48
Hanuman Highway SA Alw 8.00 1.0557 1.0289 0.99996 56.13 53.83 54.98 57.25 54.10 51.54 107.7 52.11 46.18 70.85 96.00 108.71 121.50 25.14 25.50
Hanuman Highway SA Alw 8.00 1.0342 1.0631 0.99972 54.32 51.72 53.02 54.36 54.23 49.13 103.4 52.53 48.50 73.77 99.33 112.20 125.11 25.56 25.78
Indian Charlie SA Derby 9.00 1.0303 1.0452 0.99996 56.59 55.04 55.82 56.96 55.88 53.49 110.1 51.40 46.30 70.31 94.56 106.77 119.01 24.26 24.44
Indian Charlie SA Alw 8.00 1.0269 1.0496 0.99998 56.25 54.96 55.60 56.68 55.41