Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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Prep Race Pace Parameters for 1999 Kentucky Derby Entries

Below is presented a variety of pace parameters for Derby entries in 1999 prep races at a mile or more on dirt.  In addition to the horse, race, and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 10f race (10fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race (10fLQ).  Following 10f is Adj10f which is the projected 10f time adjusted for the differences in track speed between the track on which the prep race was run and Churchill Downs.  The various pace parameters are described here. 

The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are displayed in the following table.

3Fr %E 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
>=51.56 <=52.08 <=121.68 <=24.94 <=25.33

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures. 
 

HORSE RACE DIST SLOPE INT CC EP SP AP 1Fr 2Fr 3Fr TE %E 4f 6f 8f 9f 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
Adonis Florida Derby 9.00 1.0166 1.0785 0.99991 53.86 52.58 53.22 53.73 54.09 51.31 105.2 51.19 49.05 74.06 99.23 111.85 124.49 25.16 25.27
Adonis GP Alw 8.50 1.0220 1.0714 1.00000 53.84 53.17 53.50 54.41 52.75 52.50 106.3 50.64 48.61 73.57 98.71 111.34 124.00 25.15 25.29
Adonis Wood 9.00 1.0227 1.0552 0.99998 55.98 54.85 55.42 56.25 55.46 53.72 109.7 51.03 46.88 70.97 95.24 107.44 119.66 24.28 24.42
Answer Lively AK Derby 9.00 1.0773 1.0155 0.99975 56.13 52.45 54.29 56.96 54.54 48.78 104.9 53.50 46.14 71.41 97.35 110.52 123.80 25.94 26.45
Answer Lively LA Derby 8.50 1.0072 1.0786 1.00000 54.33 54.20 54.27 54.58 53.83 54.08 108.4 50.12 48.42 72.84 97.32 109.58 121.84 24.48 24.52
Answer Lively LeComte 8.50 1.0959 1.0081 0.99993 54.89 51.32 53.11 56.74 51.63 47.76 102.6 53.50 46.55 72.59 99.49 113.20 127.05 26.90 27.56
Answer Lively Risen Star 8.50 1.0321 1.0618 0.99998 53.96 53.26 53.61 54.88 52.20 52.56 106.5 50.67 48.21 73.26 98.58 111.32 124.11 25.32 25.53
Cat Thief Blue Grass 9.00 1.0304 1.0518 0.99986 55.93 53.99 54.96 55.96 55.88 52.05 108.0 51.79 47.01 71.38 96.01 108.40 120.83 24.63 24.82
Cat Thief Florida Derby 9.00 1.0275 1.0634 0.99995 54.55 53.12 53.83 54.77 54.09 51.70 106.2 51.36 48.09 72.94 98.03 110.64 123.29 25.09 25.26
Cat Thief FOY 8.50 1.0601 1.0376 0.99997 54.55 52.23 53.39 55.59 52.57 49.92 104.5 52.20 47.42 72.88 98.87 112.02 125.26 25.99 26.39
Charismatic El Camino Real Derby 8.50 1.0283 1.0554 0.99971 55.89 53.51 54.70 55.76 56.14 51.13 107.0 52.24 47.26 71.72 96.40 108.82 121.27 24.69 24.87
Charismatic Lexington 8.50 1.0062 1.0686 0.99999 55.88 55.32 55.60 55.88 55.88 54.77 110.6 50.52 47.25 71.06 94.91 106.85 118.80 23.85 23.89
Charismatic SA Derby 9.00 1.0289 1.0602 0.99994 54.90 53.35 54.13 55.14 54.44 51.80 106.7 51.45 47.82 72.58 97.59 110.16 122.77 25.00 25.19
Desert Hero SA Derby 9.00 1.0378 1.0504 0.99990 55.32 53.33 54.33 55.61 54.75 51.34 106.7 51.85 47.34 72.10 97.18 109.82 122.51 25.08 25.32
Desert Hero San Rafael 8.50 1.0563 1.0284 0.99986 56.32 53.49 54.91 57.10 54.85 50.66 107.0 52.64 46.17 70.85 96.00 108.72 121.52 25.16 25.52
Ecton Park AK Derby 9.00 1.0434 1.0453 0.99953 55.91 52.83 54.37 55.76 56.19 49.74 105.7 52.90 47.14 71.97 97.17 109.87 122.64 25.20 25.47
Ecton Park GP Alw 8.50 1.0407 1.0620 0.99998 53.07 52.19 52.63 54.18 50.96 51.31 104.4 50.83 48.81 74.44 100.42 113.52 126.67 25.98 26.25
Ecton Park LA Derby 8.50 0.9852 1.1004 0.99991 53.54 54.71 54.12 53.70 53.22 55.88 109.4 48.94 49.38 73.63 97.75 109.78 121.79 24.13 24.04
Ecton Park Risen Star 8.50 1.0266 1.0670 0.99998 53.82 53.35 53.58 54.67 52.20 52.87 106.7 50.44 48.42 73.42 98.64 111.32 124.04 25.22 25.40
Excellent Meeting Fantasy 8.50 0.9937 1.0869 0.99998 54.81 54.59 54.70 54.50 55.43 54.36 109.2 50.20 48.43 72.47 96.45 108.42 120.39 23.98 23.94
Excellent Meeting Las Virgenes 8.00 1.0468 1.0323 0.99995 56.57 54.48 55.52 57.37 55.06 52.38 109.0 51.90 45.97 70.28 94.98 107.44 119.97 24.70 24.99
Excellent Meeting SA Oaks 8.50 1.0204 1.0638 0.99989 55.31 53.76 54.54 55.23 55.46 52.22 107.5 51.45 47.65 72.07 96.67 109.01 121.38 24.59 24.72
First American Flamingo 9.00 1.0285 1.0541 0.99994 55.70 54.13 54.91 55.93 55.25 52.55 108.3 51.43 47.13 71.52 96.14 108.52 120.94 24.62 24.80
First American Florida Derby 9.00 1.0117 1.0802 0.99996 53.99 53.11 53.55 53.94 54.09 52.23 106.2 50.84 48.90 73.70 98.60 111.07 123.57 24.90 24.97
First American GP Alw 8.50 1.0371 1.0559 0.99998 54.45 52.97 53.71 55.12 53.20 51.48 105.9 51.42 47.90 72.93 98.28 111.05