Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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Prep Race Pace Parameters for 1999 Kentucky Derby Entries

Below is presented a variety of pace parameters for Derby entries in 1999 prep races at a mile or more on dirt.  In addition to the horse, race, and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 10f race (10fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race (10fLQ).  Following 10f is Adj10f which is the projected 10f time adjusted for the differences in track speed between the track on which the prep race was run and Churchill Downs.  The various pace parameters are described here. 

The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are displayed in the following table.

3Fr %E 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
>=51.56 <=52.08 <=121.68 <=24.94 <=25.33

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures. 
 

HORSE RACE DIST SLOPE INT CC EP SP AP 1Fr 2Fr 3Fr TE %E 4f 6f 8f 9f 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
Adonis Florida Derby 9.00 1.0166 1.0785 0.99991 53.86 52.58 53.22 53.73 54.09 51.31 105.2 51.19 49.05 74.06 99.23 111.85 124.49 25.16 25.27
Adonis GP Alw 8.50 1.0220 1.0714 1.00000 53.84 53.17 53.50 54.41 52.75 52.50 106.3 50.64 48.61 73.57 98.71 111.34 124.00 25.15 25.29
Adonis Wood 9.00 1.0227 1.0552 0.99998 55.98 54.85 55.42 56.25 55.46 53.72 109.7 51.03 46.88 70.97 95.24 107.44 119.66 24.28 24.42
Answer Lively AK Derby 9.00 1.0773 1.0155 0.99975 56.13 52.45 54.29 56.96 54.54 48.78 104.9 53.50 46.14 71.41 97.35 110.52 123.80 25.94 26.45
Answer Lively LA Derby 8.50 1.0072 1.0786 1.00000 54.33 54.20 54.27 54.58 53.83 54.08 108.4 50.12 48.42 72.84 97.32 109.58 121.84 24.48 24.52
Answer Lively LeComte 8.50 1.0959 1.0081 0.99993 54.89 51.32 53.11 56.74 51.63 47.76 102.6 53.50 46.55 72.59 99.49 113.20 127.05 26.90 27.56
Answer Lively Risen Star 8.50 1.0321 1.0618 0.99998 53.96 53.26 53.61 54.88 52.20 52.56 106.5 50.67 48.21 73.26 98.58 111.32 124.11 25.32 25.53
Cat Thief Blue Grass 9.00 1.0304 1.0518 0.99986 55.93 53.99 54.96 55.96 55.88 52.05 108.0 51.79 47.01 71.38 96.01 108.40 120.83 24.63 24.82
Cat Thief Florida Derby 9.00 1.0275 1.0634 0.99995 54.55 53.12 53.83 54.77 54.09 51.70 106.2 51.36 48.09 72.94 98.03 110.64 123.29 25.09 25.26
Cat Thief FOY 8.50 1.0601 1.0376 0.99997 54.55 52.23 53.39 55.59 52.57 49.92 104.5 52.20 47.42 72.88 98.87 112.02 125.26 25.99 26.39
Charismatic El Camino Real Derby 8.50 1.0283 1.0554 0.99971 55.89 53.51 54.70 55.76 56.14 51.13 107.0 52.24 47.26 71.72 96.40 108.82 121.27 24.69 24.87
Charismatic Lexington 8.50 1.0062 1.0686 0.99999 55.88 55.32 55.60 55.88 55.88 54.77 110.6 50.52 47.25 71.06 94.91 106.85 118.80 23.85 23.89
Charismatic SA Derby 9.00 1.0289 1.0602 0.99994 54.90 53.35 54.13 55.14 54.44 51.80 106.7 51.45 47.82 72.58 97.59 110.16 122.77 25.00 25.19
Desert Hero SA Derby 9.00 1.0378 1.0504 0.99990 55.32 53.33 54.33 55.61 54.75 51.34 106.7 51.85 47.34 72.10 97.18 109.82 122.51 25.08 25.32
Desert Hero San Rafael 8.50 1.0563 1.0284 0.99986 56.32 53.49 54.91 57.10 54.85 50.66 107.0 52.64 46.17 70.85 96.00 108.72 121.52 25.16 25.52
Ecton Park AK Derby 9.00 1.0434 1.0453 0.99953 55.91 52.83 54.37 55.76 56.19 49.74 105.7 52.90 47.14 71.97 97.17 109.87 122.64 25.20 25.47
Ecton Park GP Alw 8.50 1.0407 1.0620 0.99998 53.07 52.19 52.63 54.18 50.96 51.31 104.4 50.83 48.81 74.44 100.42 113.52 126.67 25.98 26.25
Ecton Park LA Derby 8.50 0.9852 1.1004 0.99991 53.54 54.71 54.12 53.70 53.22 55.88 109.4 48.94 49.38 73.63 97.75 109.78 121.79 24.13 24.04
Ecton Park Risen Star 8.50 1.0266 1.0670 0.99998 53.82 53.35 53.58 54.67 52.20 52.87 106.7 50.44 48.42 73.42 98.64 111.32 124.04 25.22 25.40
Excellent Meeting Fantasy 8.50 0.9937 1.0869 0.99998 54.81 54.59 54.70 54.50 55.43 54.36 109.2 50.20 48.43 72.47 96.45 108.42 120.39 23.98 23.94
Excellent Meeting Las Virgenes 8.00 1.0468 1.0323 0.99995 56.57 54.48 55.52 57.37 55.06 52.38 109.0 51.90 45.97 70.28 94.98 107.44 119.97 24.70 24.99
Excellent Meeting SA Oaks 8.50 1.0204 1.0638 0.99989 55.31 53.76 54.54 55.23 55.46 52.22 107.5 51.45 47.65 72.07 96.67 109.01 121.38 24.59 24.72
First American Flamingo 9.00 1.0285 1.0541 0.99994 55.70 54.13 54.91 55.93 55.25 52.55 108.3 51.43 47.13 71.52 96.14 108.52 120.94 24.62 24.80
First American Florida Derby 9.00 1.0117 1.0802 0.99996 53.99 53.11 53.55 53.94 54.09 52.23 106.2 50.84 48.90 73.70 98.60 111.07 123.57 24.90 24.97
First American GP Alw 8.50 1.0371 1.0559 0.99998 54.45 52.97 53.71 55.12 53.20 51.48 105.9 51.42 47.90 72.93 98.28 111.05 123.87 25.35 25.59
First American GP Alw 8.50 1.0240 1.0652 0.99970 55.03 52.82 53.92 54.75 55.57 50.61 105.6 52.11 48.06 72.79 97.73 110.26 122.82 24.94 25.09
General Challenge LA Derby 8.50 0.9870 1.0999 0.99995 53.95 53.73 53.84 53.39 55.04 53.51 107.5 50.19 49.45 73.78 98.01 110.09 122.15 24.23 24.15
General Challenge SA Derby 9.00 1.0298 1.0534 0.99999 55.46 54.20 54.83 55.93 54.54 52.94 108.4 51.16 47.14 71.57 96.25 108.67 121.12 24.68 24.87
General Challenge Santa Catalina 8.50 1.0074 1.0753 0.99999 54.86 54.38 54.62 54.94 54.71 53.90 108.8 50.42 48.06 72.31 96.63 108.80 120.98 24.31 24.36
K One King Gallery Furniture.Com 9.00 0.9891 1.0950 0.99998 54.25 54.28 54.26 53.78 55.20 54.31 108.6 49.95 49.03 73.22 97.31 109.34 121.35 24.10 24.03
K One King John Battaglia Memorial 8.50 1.0766 1.0167 1.00000 55.31 53.12 54.21 57.14 51.96 50.93 106.2 52.08 46.22 71.52 97.49 110.67 123.96 25.96 26.47
K One King Presidents 8.00 1.0415 1.0415 0.99994 55.93 53.95 54.94 56.69 54.56 51.97 107.9 51.84 46.62 71.11 95.95 108.48 121.06 24.84 25.11
Kimberlite Pipe Blue Grass 9.00 1.0424 1.0426 0.99984 55.93 53.60 54.76 56.17 55.46 51.26 107.2 52.18 46.80 71.41 96.39 108.98 121.63 24.97 25.24
Kimberlite Pipe LA Derby 8.50 1.0073 1.0789 0.99998 54.19 54.30 54.24 54.58 53.42 54.41 108.6 49.90 48.46 72.91 97.41 109.69 121.97 24.51 24.55
Kimberlite Pipe LeComte 8.50 1.0936 1.0099 1.00000 54.61 51.88 53.25 56.80 50.76 49.16 103.8 52.61 46.60 72.60 99.45 113.12 126.93 26.84 27.49
Kimberlite Pipe Risen Star 8.50 1.0426 1.0514 1.00000 54.41 52.90 53.66 55.25 52.80 51.40 105.8 51.43 47.77 72.90 98.40 111.26 124.18 25.50 25.77
Lemon Drop Kid Blue Grass 9.00 1.0314 1.0542 0.99982 55.61 53.54 54.58 55.59 55.67 51.46 107.1 51.93 47.33 71.91 96.75 109.25 121.79 24.84 25.04
Lemon Drop Kid GP Alw 8.50 1.0298 1.0605 0.99985 54.85 52.89 53.87 54.92 54.71 50.93 105.8 51.84 47.93 72.77 97.86 110.48 123.14 25.09 25.28
Menifee Blue Grass 9.00 1.0197 1.0618 0.99996 55.54 54.33 54.94 55.64 55.35 53.11 108.7 51.10 47.40 71.66 96.10 108.36 120.65 24.43 24.55
Menifee Tampa Bay Derby 8.50 1.0461 1.0502 0.99999 54.28 52.60 53.44 55.19 52.57 50.91 105.2 51.60 47.86 73.14 98.82 111.78 124.80 25.68 25.98
Prime Timber SA Derby 9.00 1.0196 1.0656 0.99997 55.04 53.93 54.48 55.19 54.75 52.81 107.9 51.01 47.81 72.28 96.92 109.29 121.68 24.64 24.76
Prime Timber San Felipe 8.50 1.0053 1.0737 0.99998 55.34 54.78 55.06 55.34 55.32 54.22 109.6 50.49 47.75 71.77 95.84 107.89 119.95 24.07 24.10
Prime Timber San Rafael 8.50 1.0549 1.0292 0.99975 56.46 53.33 54.90 57.04 55.37 50.19 106.7 52.92 46.17 70.81 95.92 108.61 121.38 25.11 25.46
Stephen Got Even Gallery Furniture.Com 9.00 0.9809 1.1011 1.00000 54.18 54.66 54.42 53.67 55.20 55.14 109.3 49.57 49.17 73.19 97.05 108.93 120.80 23.86 23.75
Stephen Got Even GP Alw 8.50 1.0417 1.0500 0.99999 54.70 53.13 53.91 55.49 53.20 51.56 106.3 51.45 47.55 72.55 97.90 110.68 123.52 25.35 25.62
Stephen Got Even GP MSW 8.50 1.0192 1.0725 0.99998 54.10 53.16 53.63 54.34 53.62 52.22 106.3 50.89 48.54 73.38 98.39 110.94 123.51 25.00 25.12
Three Ring Bonnie Miss 8.50 1.0368 1.0505 0.99993 55.31 53.43 54.37 55.70 54.54 51.56 106.9 51.74 47.28 71.99 97.01 109.61 122.26 25.02 25.25
Three Ring Davona Dale 8.32 1.0316 1.0552 0.99987 55.31 53.32 54.32 55.46 55.00 51.34 106.6 51.88 47.45 72.10 97.01 109.54 122.12 24.91 25.11
Valhol AK Derby 9.00 1.0634 1.0219 0.99990 56.41 53.59 55.00 57.28 54.75 50.77 107.2 52.62 45.94 70.70 96.00 108.81 121.71 25.30 25.71
Valhol LA Derby 8.50 1.0189 1.0695 1.00000 54.40 53.75 54.07 54.79 53.62 53.10 107.5 50.60 48.19 72.84 97.65 110.10 122.58 24.81 24.93
Vicar Blue Grass 9.00 1.0368 1.0466 0.99992 55.86 53.96 54.91 56.17 55.25 52.05 107.9 51.77 46.86 71.34 96.13 108.61 121.15 24.79 25.02
Vicar Florida Derby 9.00 1.0201 1.0704 0.99998 54.34 53.28 53.81 54.51 53.99 52.23 106.6 50.97 48.37 73.15 98.09 110.61 123.16 24.95 25.07
Vicar FOY 8.50 1.0624 1.0355 0.99998 54.55 52.27 53.41 55.70 52.38 50.00 104.5 52.20 47.33 72.82 98.85 112.03 125.30 26.03 26.45

Definition of Pace Terms:

Slope is a measure of fatigue.  It parallels the increase in time required to negotiate an additional distance.  The higher the number, the steeper the slope, indicating that the fatigue rate is greater.  Slopes will generally fall between 0.9 (slow early-fast late) and 1.2 (fast early-slow late).

Int., or Intercept is a measure of early speed and is inversely related to the slope.  In this case, the lower the intercept, the greater the relative early speed.  Intercepts also will usually fall between 0.9 (fast early) and 1.2 (slow early).

CC, or Correlation Coefficient is a measure of how efficiently a horse's speed is used throughout the whole race.  Perfect efficiency is equal to a CC of 1.00000.  Any value below 1.00000 represents less than ideal efficiency, although it is almost always greater than 0.99900.  The very best horses continually display CC's above 0.99990 while lower quality horses may not display CCs that high.

The remaining terms are part of the "Sartin Methodology" for describing pace characteristics as discussed by Tom Brohamer ("Modern Pace Handicapping", by Tom Brohamer, William Morrow and Company, Inc,. New York, 1991):

EP (Early Pace) is velocity in fps (feet-per-second) to the second call.

SP (Sustained Pace) is the average of early pace and the final fraction, thus relating a horse's speed to the second call and his ability to finish.

AP (Average Pace) is the average  of EP and SP.

1Fr (First Fraction), 2Fr (Second Fraction) and 3Fr (Third Fraction) are the average velocities in fps between each of the calls.

TE (Total Energy) is the sum of EP and 3Fr.  It is the total available energy based on current conditions of distance, surface and track as well as inherent ability.

%E (Percent Early) is a relative measure of energy used through the second call (EP/TE).  Speed types display %E figures significantly higher than off-the-pace types, although the absolute numbers are greatly affected by the distance of a race.

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