Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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Prep Race Pace Parameters for 2000 Kentucky Derby Entries

Below is presented a variety of pace parameters for Derby entries in 2000 prep races at a mile or more on dirt.  In addition to the horse, race, and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 10f race (10fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race (10fLQ).  Following 10f is Adj10f which is the projected 10f time adjusted for the differences in track speed between the track on which the prep race was run and Churchill Downs.  The various pace parameters are described here. 

The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are displayed in the following table.

3Fr %E 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
>=51.56 <=52.08 <=121.68 <=24.94 <=25.33

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures. 
 

HORSE RACE DIST SLOPE INT CC EP SP AP 1Fr 2Fr 3Fr TE %E 4f 6f 8f 9f 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
Anees SA Derby 9.00 0.9969 1.0898 0.99994 54.34 53.77 54.05 53.92 55.16 53.19 107.5 50.55 48.98 73.37 97.74 109.92 122.09 24.37 24.35
Anees San Felipe 8.50 1.0389 1.0468 0.99985 55.77 53.46 54.62 56.11 55.12 51.16 106.9 52.17 47.03 71.66 96.63 109.21 121.84 24.96 25.21
Aptitude Wood Memorial 9.00 1.0057 1.0769 0.99998 55.01 54.37 54.69 54.91 55.19 53.74 108.7 50.60 48.13 72.36 96.64 108.79 120.95 24.28 24.31
Aptitude Gotham 8.00 1.0327 1.0421 1.00000 56.50 55.54 56.02 57.35 54.89 54.57 111.1 50.86 46.11 70.10 94.34 106.55 118.79 24.25 24.45
Aptitude SA MSW 8.50 1.0219 1.0686 0.99993 54.54 53.10 53.82 54.68 54.26 51.67 106.2 51.36 48.29 73.07 98.05 110.59 123.16 24.97 25.11
Captain Steve SA Derby 9.00 1.0233 1.0624 0.99996 55.11 53.82 54.47 55.30 54.75 52.53 107.6 51.22 47.69 72.22 96.94 109.36 121.81 24.72 24.87
Captain Steve LA Derby 8.50 1.0468 1.0424 0.99999 55.21 53.46 54.34 56.17 53.42 51.71 106.9 51.65 47.06 71.94 97.22 109.98 122.80 25.28 25.58
Captain Steve Santa Catalina 8.50 1.0697 1.0227 0.99992 55.65 52.74 54.20 56.79 53.52 49.84 105.5 52.75 46.42 71.63 97.44 110.52 123.70 25.81 26.27
Commendable Lexington S 8.50 1.0790 1.0137 0.99990 55.91 52.65 54.28 57.21 53.52 49.39 105.3 53.10 46.06 71.33 97.29 110.48 123.78 25.96 26.49
Commendable San Felipe 8.50 1.0796 1.0094 0.99988 56.41 53.05 54.73 57.64 54.09 49.69 106.1 53.17 45.65 70.71 96.47 109.55 122.75 25.76 26.28
Commendable San Rafael 8.00 1.0405 1.0433 0.99981 56.07 53.51 54.79 56.39 55.46 50.95 107.0 52.40 46.74 71.27 96.14 108.68 121.27 24.87 25.13
Deputy Warlock Spiral 9.00 0.9712 1.1105 0.99925 55.00 53.72 54.36 53.06 58.67 52.44 107.4 51.21 49.56 73.48 97.16 108.94 120.68 23.68 23.51
Deputy Warlock Blue Grass 9.00 0.9743 1.1064 0.99970 54.87 54.18 54.52 53.48 57.56 53.48 108.4 50.62 49.32 73.22 96.90 108.69 120.44 23.69 23.53
Deputy Warlock Florida Derby 9.00 1.0493 1.0531 0.99928 54.59 51.00 52.80 54.20 55.35 47.41 102.0 53.52 48.40 74.06 100.16 113.34 126.59 26.10 26.43
Deputy Warlock FOY 8.50 0.9817 1.1021 0.99963 54.73 53.55 54.14 53.48 57.14 52.38 107.1 51.10 49.33 73.45 97.42 109.37 121.28 23.97 23.86
Exchange Rate Wood Memorial 9.00 1.0582 1.0343 0.99989 55.43 52.75 54.09 56.09 54.13 50.07 105.5 52.54 46.93 72.07 97.72 110.70 123.75 25.65 26.03
Exchange Rate LA Derby 8.50 1.0581 1.0318 0.99999 55.42 53.33 54.38 56.60 53.22 51.24 106.7 51.94 46.65 71.65 97.15 110.04 123.02 25.50 25.87
Exchange Rate Risen Star 8.50 1.0473 1.0433 0.99994 55.15 53.04 54.10 55.85 53.83 50.93 106.1 51.98 47.19 72.16 97.53 110.33 123.20 25.37 25.68
Fusaichi Pegasus San Felipe 8.50 1.0581 1.0269 0.99997 56.13 53.83 54.98 57.21 54.09 51.54 107.7 52.11 46.13 70.84 96.05 108.80 121.63 25.21 25.58
Fusaichi Pegasus Wood Memorial 9.00 1.0263 1.0527 0.99998 55.97 54.72 55.34 56.30 55.29 53.48 109.4 51.16 46.83 71.00 95.39 107.65 119.94 24.39 24.55
Fusaichi Pegasus SA Alw 8.50 1.0524 1.0322 0.99997 56.02 53.87 54.94 56.96 54.26 51.72 107.7 52.01 46.32 70.97 96.06 108.74 121.49 25.09 25.43
Globalize Lexington S 8.50 1.0781 1.0138 0.99982 56.09 52.59 54.34 57.21 54.03 49.09 105.2 53.32 46.01 71.23 97.14 110.29 123.56 25.90 26.42
Globalize Spiral 9.00 1.0692 1.0162 0.99996 56.43 53.73 55.08 57.64 54.13 51.03 107.5 52.49 45.70 70.50 95.90 108.77 121.73 25.39 25.84
Globalize El Camino Real Derby 8.50 1.0733 1.0185 0.99971 56.14 52.47 54.31 56.99 54.57 48.80 104.9 53.52 46.21 71.40 97.23 110.33 123.54 25.83 26.31
Globalize Golden State Mile 8.00 1.0358 1.0490 0.99999 55.42 53.98 54.70 56.14 54.06 52.54 108.0 51.32 47.06 71.63 96.50