Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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Prep Race Pace Parameters for 2000 Kentucky Derby Entries

Below is presented a variety of pace parameters for Derby entries in 2000 prep races at a mile or more on dirt.  In addition to the horse, race, and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 10f race (10fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race (10fLQ).  Following 10f is Adj10f which is the projected 10f time adjusted for the differences in track speed between the track on which the prep race was run and Churchill Downs.  The various pace parameters are described here. 

The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are displayed in the following table.

3Fr %E 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
>=51.56 <=52.08 <=121.68 <=24.94 <=25.33

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures. 
 

HORSE RACE DIST SLOPE INT CC EP SP AP 1Fr 2Fr 3Fr TE %E 4f 6f 8f 9f 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
Anees SA Derby 9.00 0.9969 1.0898 0.99994 54.34 53.77 54.05 53.92 55.16 53.19 107.5 50.55 48.98 73.37 97.74 109.92 122.09 24.37 24.35
Anees San Felipe 8.50 1.0389 1.0468 0.99985 55.77 53.46 54.62 56.11 55.12 51.16 106.9 52.17 47.03 71.66 96.63 109.21 121.84 24.96 25.21
Aptitude Wood Memorial 9.00 1.0057 1.0769 0.99998 55.01 54.37 54.69 54.91 55.19 53.74 108.7 50.60 48.13 72.36 96.64 108.79 120.95 24.28 24.31
Aptitude Gotham 8.00 1.0327 1.0421 1.00000 56.50 55.54 56.02 57.35 54.89 54.57 111.1 50.86 46.11 70.10 94.34 106.55 118.79 24.25 24.45
Aptitude SA MSW 8.50 1.0219 1.0686 0.99993 54.54 53.10 53.82 54.68 54.26 51.67 106.2 51.36 48.29 73.07 98.05 110.59 123.16 24.97 25.11
Captain Steve SA Derby 9.00 1.0233 1.0624 0.99996 55.11 53.82 54.47 55.30 54.75 52.53 107.6 51.22 47.69 72.22 96.94 109.36 121.81 24.72 24.87
Captain Steve LA Derby 8.50 1.0468 1.0424 0.99999 55.21 53.46 54.34 56.17 53.42 51.71 106.9 51.65 47.06 71.94 97.22 109.98 122.80 25.28 25.58
Captain Steve Santa Catalina 8.50 1.0697 1.0227 0.99992 55.65 52.74 54.20 56.79 53.52 49.84 105.5 52.75 46.42 71.63 97.44 110.52 123.70 25.81 26.27
Commendable Lexington S 8.50 1.0790 1.0137 0.99990 55.91 52.65 54.28 57.21 53.52 49.39 105.3 53.10 46.06 71.33 97.29 110.48 123.78 25.96 26.49
Commendable San Felipe 8.50 1.0796 1.0094 0.99988 56.41 53.05 54.73 57.64 54.09 49.69 106.1 53.17 45.65 70.71 96.47 109.55 122.75 25.76 26.28
Commendable San Rafael 8.00 1.0405 1.0433 0.99981 56.07 53.51 54.79 56.39 55.46 50.95 107.0 52.40 46.74 71.27 96.14 108.68 121.27 24.87 25.13
Deputy Warlock Spiral 9.00 0.9712 1.1105 0.99925 55.00 53.72 54.36 53.06 58.67 52.44 107.4 51.21 49.56 73.48 97.16 108.94 120.68 23.68 23.51
Deputy Warlock Blue Grass 9.00 0.9743 1.1064 0.99970 54.87 54.18 54.52 53.48 57.56 53.48 108.4 50.62 49.32 73.22 96.90 108.69 120.44 23.69 23.53
Deputy Warlock Florida Derby 9.00 1.0493 1.0531 0.99928 54.59 51.00 52.80 54.20 55.35 47.41 102.0 53.52 48.40 74.06 100.16 113.34 126.59 26.10 26.43
Deputy Warlock FOY 8.50 0.9817 1.1021 0.99963 54.73 53.55 54.14 53.48 57.14 52.38 107.1 51.10 49.33 73.45 97.42 109.37 121.28 23.97 23.86
Exchange Rate Wood Memorial 9.00 1.0582 1.0343 0.99989 55.43 52.75 54.09 56.09 54.13 50.07 105.5 52.54 46.93 72.07 97.72 110.70 123.75 25.65 26.03
Exchange Rate LA Derby 8.50 1.0581 1.0318 0.99999 55.42 53.33 54.38 56.60 53.22 51.24 106.7 51.94 46.65 71.65 97.15 110.04 123.02 25.50 25.87
Exchange Rate Risen Star 8.50 1.0473 1.0433 0.99994 55.15 53.04 54.10 55.85 53.83 50.93 106.1 51.98 47.19 72.16 97.53 110.33 123.20 25.37 25.68
Fusaichi Pegasus San Felipe 8.50 1.0581 1.0269 0.99997 56.13 53.83 54.98 57.21 54.09 51.54 107.7 52.11 46.13 70.84 96.05 108.80 121.63 25.21 25.58
Fusaichi Pegasus Wood Memorial 9.00 1.0263 1.0527 0.99998 55.97 54.72 55.34 56.30 55.29 53.48 109.4 51.16 46.83 71.00 95.39 107.65 119.94 24.39 24.55
Fusaichi Pegasus SA Alw 8.50 1.0524 1.0322 0.99997 56.02 53.87 54.94 56.96 54.26 51.72 107.7 52.01 46.32 70.97 96.06 108.74 121.49 25.09 25.43
Globalize Lexington S 8.50 1.0781 1.0138 0.99982 56.09 52.59 54.34 57.21 54.03 49.09 105.2 53.32 46.01 71.23 97.14 110.29 123.56 25.90 26.42
Globalize Spiral 9.00 1.0692 1.0162 0.99996 56.43 53.73 55.08 57.64 54.13 51.03 107.5 52.49 45.70 70.50 95.90 108.77 121.73 25.39 25.84
Globalize El Camino Real Derby 8.50 1.0733 1.0185 0.99971 56.14 52.47 54.31 56.99 54.57 48.80 104.9 53.52 46.21 71.40 97.23 110.33 123.54 25.83 26.31
Globalize Golden State Mile 8.00 1.0358 1.0490 0.99999 55.42 53.98 54.70 56.14 54.06 52.54 108.0 51.32 47.06 71.63 96.50 109.02 121.59 24.87 25.09
Globalize Golden Gate Derby 8.50 1.0410 1.0430 0.99966 56.25 53.40 54.82 56.25 56.25 50.54 106.8 52.67 46.74 71.29 96.18 108.73 121.33 24.89 25.15
Graeme Hall AK Derby 9.00 1.0426 1.0429 0.99999 55.31 54.12 54.72 56.41 53.22 52.94 108.2 51.12 46.84 71.48 96.48 109.09 121.76 25.00 25.27
Graeme Hall Rushaway 8.50 1.0552 1.0309 0.99999 55.77 53.83 54.80 56.93 53.62 51.89 107.7 51.79 46.36 71.12 96.34 109.09 121.92 25.22 25.58
Hal's Hope Blue Grass 9.00 1.0929 1.0012 0.99948 56.66 51.98 54.32 57.39 55.25 47.29 104.0 54.48 45.62 71.06 97.32 110.68 124.19 26.25 26.88
Hal's Hope Florida Derby 9.00 1.0642 1.0282 0.99958 55.93 52.35 54.14 56.17 55.46 48.77 104.7 53.42 46.66 71.84 97.57 110.59 123.72 25.73 26.15
Hal's Hope FOY 8.50 1.0601 1.0247 0.99959 56.73 53.18 54.96 57.07 56.09 49.62 106.4 53.32 46.02 70.73 95.95 108.71 121.56 25.22 25.61
Hal's Hope Holy Bull 8.50 1.0419 1.0503 1.00000 54.55 53.22 53.88 55.46 52.80 51.89 106.4 51.26 47.59 72.62 98.00 110.79 123.65 25.38 25.65
High Yield Blue Grass 9.00 1.0593 1.0232 0.99986 56.73 53.88 55.31 57.39 55.46 51.03 107.8 52.63 45.81 70.39 95.46 108.15 120.92 25.08 25.46
High Yield Florida Derby 9.00 1.0642 1.0284 0.99963 55.86 52.38 54.12 56.17 55.25 48.89 104.8 53.30 46.68 71.87 97.61 110.65 123.77 25.74 26.16
High Yield FOY 8.50 1.0608 1.0223 0.99981 56.73 53.67 55.20 57.39 55.46 50.61 107.3 52.87 45.81 70.43 95.56 108.28 121.08 25.13 25.52
High Yield Santa Catalina 8.50 1.0717 1.0170 0.99999 55.93 53.43 54.68 57.39 53.22 50.93 106.9 52.32 45.95 70.96 96.59 109.58 122.68 25.63 26.10
Impeachment Tampa Bay Derby 8.50 0.9522 1.1327 0.99981 53.48 53.78 53.63 51.88 56.55 54.09 107.6 49.70 50.81 74.75 98.31 109.97 121.58 23.55 23.27
Impeachment AK Derby 9.00 0.9700 1.1131 0.99982 54.22 54.08 54.15 52.99 56.55 53.94 108.2 50.12 49.79 73.78 97.53 109.33 121.10 23.75 23.57
Impeachment Sam F Davis 8.50 0.9348 1.1555 0.99993 52.20 53.39 52.80 50.42 55.69 54.58 106.8 48.88 52.28 76.38 99.94 111.57 123.12 23.57 23.18
Impeachment GP Alw 8.50 1.0003 1.0926 0.99997 53.54 53.07 53.30 53.27 54.09 52.60 106.1 50.46 49.52 74.30 99.07 111.46 123.84 24.77 24.78
Impeachment GP Alw 8.50 1.0386 1.0624 0.99961 54.06 51.29 52.68 53.99 54.20 48.52 102.6 52.69 48.72 74.23 100.07 113.10 126.17 25.85 26.10
More Than Ready Blue Grass 9.00 1.0513 1.0312 0.99991 56.45 54.00 55.22 57.07 55.25 51.55 108.0 52.27 46.15 70.67 95.63 108.24 120.91 24.96 25.28
More Than Ready LA Derby 8.50 1.0710 1.0192 0.99998 55.77 53.20 54.49 57.14 53.22 50.62 106.4 52.42 46.13 71.22 96.92 109.96 123.09 25.70 26.17
Ronton AK Derby 9.00 1.0039 1.0869 0.99998 53.91 53.39 53.65 53.85 54.03 52.87 106.8 50.48 49.13 73.81 98.52 110.89 123.26 24.71 24.74
Ronton Rushaway 8.50 1.0340 1.0508 1.00000 55.32 54.11 54.72 56.11 53.83 52.91 108.2 51.12 47.14 71.69 96.53 109.03 121.58 24.84 25.05
Ronton SA MSW 8.50 1.0110 1.0788 0.99994 54.31 53.23 53.77 54.29 54.33 52.15 106.5 50.99 48.69 73.36 98.12 110.53 122.95 24.76 24.83
Ronton SA MSW 8.00 1.0215 1.0680 1.00000 54.38 53.61 53.99 54.83 53.48 52.85 107.2 50.72 48.19 72.92 97.83 110.34 122.88 24.91 25.05
The Deputy SA Derby 9.00 1.0243 1.0595 0.99999 55.25 54.16 54.70 55.61 54.54 53.06 108.3 51.02 47.44 71.87 96.50 108.87 121.28 24.63 24.78
The Deputy San Felipe 8.50 1.0340 1.0489 0.99984 55.98 53.80 54.89 56.22 55.53 51.62 107.6 52.03 46.93 71.37 96.09 108.54 121.03 24.73 24.94
The Deputy Santa Catalina 8.50 1.0692 1.0187 0.99999 55.93 53.59 54.76 57.39 53.22 51.24 107.2 52.18 45.97 70.91 96.45 109.40 122.44 25.54 25.99
Trippi Flamingo 9.00 1.0644 1.0252 0.99999 55.62 53.32 54.47 56.90 53.22 51.03 106.6 52.17 46.35 71.36 96.93 109.88 122.92 25.57 25.99
War Chant SA Derby 9.00 1.0317 1.0529 0.99997 55.39 53.96 54.68 55.83 54.54 52.53 107.9 51.34 47.22 71.75 96.54 109.01 121.53 24.79 24.99
War Chant San Rafael 8.00 1.0588 1.0255 0.99974 56.57 53.29 54.93 57.14 55.46 50.00 106.6 53.07 46.01 70.68 95.85 108.58 121.40 25.17 25.54
War Chant SA Alw 8.50 1.0221 1.0581 0.99999 55.62 54.59 55.11 55.93 55.00 53.57 109.2 50.93 47.15 71.36 95.75 108.00 120.28 24.39 24.53
Wheelaway Blue Grass 9.00 1.0201 1.0632 0.99988 55.59 53.95 54.77 55.49 55.77 52.32 107.9 51.52 47.57 71.94 96.47 108.79 121.13 24.53 24.66
Wheelaway Tampa Bay Derby 8.50 1.0149 1.0728 1.00000 54.41 53.81 54.11 54.71 53.83 53.21 107.6 50.56 48.28 72.86 97.56 109.95 122.36 24.70 24.80
Wheelaway GP Alw 8.50 1.0094 1.0741 0.99970 55.35 53.58 54.46 54.83 56.35 51.80 107.2 51.63 48.06 72.37 96.75 108.97 121.19 24.38 24.44
Wheelaway GP MSW 8.50 1.0409 1.0516 0.99992 54.79 52.78 53.78 55.34 53.76 50.76 105.6 51.89 47.68 72.71 98.09 110.89 123.74 25.38 25.65

Definition of Pace Terms:

Slope is a measure of fatigue.  It parallels the increase in time required to negotiate an additional distance.  The higher the number, the steeper the slope, indicating that the fatigue rate is greater.  Slopes will generally fall between 0.9 (slow early-fast late) and 1.2 (fast early-slow late).

Int., or Intercept is a measure of early speed and is inversely related to the slope.  In this case, the lower the intercept, the greater the relative early speed.  Intercepts also will usually fall between 0.9 (fast early) and 1.2 (slow early).

CC, or Correlation Coefficient is a measure of how efficiently a horse's speed is used throughout the whole race.  Perfect efficiency is equal to a CC of 1.00000.  Any value below 1.00000 represents less than ideal efficiency, although it is almost always greater than 0.99900.  The very best horses continually display CC's above 0.99990 while lower quality horses may not display CCs that high.

The remaining terms are part of the "Sartin Methodology" for describing pace characteristics as discussed by Tom Brohamer ("Modern Pace Handicapping", by Tom Brohamer, William Morrow and Company, Inc,. New York, 1991):

EP (Early Pace) is velocity in fps (feet-per-second) to the second call.

SP (Sustained Pace) is the average of early pace and the final fraction, thus relating a horse's speed to the second call and his ability to finish.

AP (Average Pace) is the average  of EP and SP.

1Fr (First Fraction), 2Fr (Second Fraction) and 3Fr (Third Fraction) are the average velocities in fps between each of the calls.

TE (Total Energy) is the sum of EP and 3Fr.  It is the total available energy based on current conditions of distance, surface and track as well as inherent ability.

%E (Percent Early) is a relative measure of energy used through the second call (EP/TE).  Speed types display %E figures significantly higher than off-the-pace types, although the absolute numbers are greatly affected by the distance of a race.

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