Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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Prep Race Pace Parameters for 2001 Kentucky Derby Entries

Below is presented a variety of pace parameters for Derby entries in 2001 prep races at a mile or more on dirt.  In addition to the horse, race, and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 10f race (10fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race (10fLQ).  Following 10f is Adj10f which is the projected 10f time adjusted for the differences in track speed between the track on which the prep race was run and Churchill Downs.  The various pace parameters are described here. 

The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are displayed in the following table.

3Fr %E 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
>=51.56 <=52.08 <=121.68 <=24.94 <=25.33

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures. 
 

HORSE RACE DIST SLOPE INT CC EP SP AP 1Fr 2Fr 3Fr TE %E 4f 6f 8f 9f 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
A P Valentine Blue Grass 9.00 1.0264 1.0636 0.99990 54.87 53.19 54.03 54.96 54.68 51.52 106.4 51.56 48.04 72.84 97.86 110.43 123.04 25.02 25.19
Arctic Boy Arkansas Derby 9.00 1.0622 1.0346 0.99970 55.29 51.97 53.63 55.79 54.36 48.64 103.9 53.22 47.21 72.63 98.58 111.72 124.95 25.96 26.37
Arctic Boy Rebel 8.50 1.0248 1.0636 0.99998 54.74 53.50 54.12 55.08 54.06 52.27 107.0 51.15 47.93 72.62 97.53 110.04 122.58 24.90 25.06
Arctic Boy Southwest 8.00 1.0598 1.0363 0.99998 54.72 52.51 53.61 55.88 52.57 50.29 105.0 52.12 47.24 72.61 98.49 111.58 124.76 25.88 26.27
Balto Star Arkansas Derby 9.00 1.0692 1.0166 0.99999 56.25 53.78 55.01 57.64 53.65 51.30 107.6 52.28 45.74 70.57 95.99 108.87 121.85 25.42 25.86
Balto Star Spiral 9.00 1.0595 1.0209 0.99987 56.09 55.10 55.59 58.15 52.38 54.10 110.2 50.90 45.58 70.04 95.00 107.63 120.34 24.96 25.34
Congaree Wood Memorial 9.00 1.0502 1.0296 0.99997 56.57 54.48 55.52 57.39 55.00 52.38 109.0 51.90 45.91 70.28 95.07 107.59 120.17 24.79 25.11
Dollar Bill Blue Grass 9.00 1.0156 1.0702 0.99999 54.87 53.99 54.43 55.06 54.47 53.11 108.0 50.80 48.04 72.52 97.13 109.47 121.83 24.61 24.70
Dollar Bill Louisiana Derby 8.50 1.0587 1.0364 0.99993 54.99 52.49 53.74 55.95 53.20 50.00 105.0 52.37 47.18 72.48 98.29 111.34 124.48 25.81 26.19
Dollar Bill Risen Star 8.50 1.0206 1.0654 0.99999 54.92 53.86 54.39 55.21 54.33 52.80 107.7 50.99 47.85 72.37 97.07 109.47 121.90 24.70 24.83
Fifty Stars Lone Star Derby 9.00 0.9976 1.0912 0.99998 53.93 53.62 53.77 53.70 54.36 53.32 107.2 50.30 49.18 73.70 98.20 110.45 122.69 24.50 24.49
Fifty Stars Louisiana Derby 8.50 1.0304 1.0613 0.99999 54.49 53.15 53.82 55.09 53.40 51.80 106.3 51.26 48.05 72.97 98.14 110.81 123.52 25.18 25.37
Fifty Stars Risen Star 8.50 0.9894 1.1000 1.00000 53.51 53.81 53.66 53.40 53.71 54.11 107.6 49.73 49.63 74.12 98.52 110.70 122.86 24.40 24.34
Invisible Ink Blue Grass 9.00 1.0554 1.0324 0.99990 55.89 53.34 54.62 56.57 54.58 50.79 106.7 52.39 46.54 71.39 96.72 109.52 122.40 25.33 25.68
Invisible Ink Florida Derby 9.00 1.0554 1.0374 0.99989 55.25 52.69 53.97 55.93 53.96 50.13 105.4 52.42 47.08 72.22 97.85 110.80 123.83 25.62 25.98
Jamaican Rum Arkansas Derby 9.00 1.0164 1.0685 0.99967 55.50 53.50 54.50 55.02 56.40 51.49 107.0 51.87 47.90 72.34 96.90 109.23 121.57 24.57 24.67
Jamaican Rum San Felipe 8.50 0.9952 1.0838 0.99978 55.47 54.29 54.88 54.76 56.81 53.11 108.6 51.08 48.20 72.15 96.07 108.02 119.96 23.92 23.89
Keats Lexington 8.50 1.0685 1.0208 0.99999 55.77 53.35 54.56 57.14 53.22 50.93 106.7 52.27 46.15 71.17 96.79 109.77 122.85 25.61 26.06
Keats Spiral 9.00 1.1173 0.9921 1.00000 54.67 50.80 52.74 57.21 50.09 46.93 101.6 53.81 46.22 72.70 100.27 114.37 128.66 27.56 28.39
Millennium Wind Blue Grass 9.00 1.0441 1.0370 0.99996 56.25 54.32 55.28 56.90 55.00 52.38 108.6 51.80 46.30 70.70 95.47 107.97 120.52 24.77 25.05
Millennium Wind Louisiana Derby 8.50 1.0798 1.0158 0.99985 55.62 52.21 53.91 56.82 53.40 48.80 104.4 53.27 46.33 71.78 97.92 111.20 124.60 26.15 26.68
Monarchos Wood Memorial 9.00 1.0182 1.0623 0.99996 55.68 54.49 55.09 55.82 55.41 53.31 109.0 51.08 47.35 71.55 95.90 108.12 120.37 24.35 24.46
Monarchos Florida Derby 9.00 1.0114 1.0755 1.00000 54.41 53.97 54.19 54.75 53.76 53.52 107.9 50.43 48.36 72.87 97.49 109.82 122.17 24.61 24.68
Point Given Santa Anita Derby 9.00 1.0319 1.0471 1.00000 55.93 54.87 55.40 56.68 54.50 53.80 109.7 50.99 46.60 70.81 95.28 107.59 119.95 24.47 24.67
Point Given San Felipe 8.50 1.0245 1.0537 0.99985 56.25 54.40 55.33 56.28 56.19 52.55 108.8 51.70 46.83 70.95 95.27 107.49 119.74 24.32 24.47
Songandaprayer Blue Grass 9.00 1.0507 1.0339 0.99983 56.25 53.62 54.94 56.68 55.41 50.99 107.2 52.47 46.39 71.03 96.10 108.76 121.49 25.07 25.39
Songandaprayer Florida Derby 9.00 1.0718 1.0239 0.99984 55.43 52.19 53.81 56.30 53.76 48.96 104.4 53.09 46.69 72.10 98.14 111.34 124.66 26.04 26.52
Songandaprayer FOY 8.50 1.0508 1.0359 0.99984 55.93 53.27 54.60 56.41 55.00 50.61 106.5 52.52 46.62 71.39 96.59 109.31 122.11 25.20 25.52
Songandaprayer Holy Bull 8.50 1.1249 0.9819 0.99986 55.46 50.85 53.16 57.64 51.56 46.24 101.7 54.54 45.63 71.99 99.50 113.60 127.89 27.51 28.39
Startac California Derby 9.00 1.0179 1.0685 0.99977 55.24 53.43 54.34 54.88 55.93 51.62 106.9 51.68 48.01 72.53 97.21 109.59 122.00 24.68 24.79
Startac El Camino Real 8.50 1.0196 1.0626 0.99997 55.16 54.84 55.00 56.03 53.60 54.52 109.7 50.28 47.47 71.77 96.24 108.52 120.82 24.47 24.59
Startac Turf Paradise Derby 8.50 0.9665 1.1065 0.99977 55.37 55.11 55.24 54.06 57.88 54.85 110.2 50.25 48.79 72.20 95.35 106.85 118.30 23.15 22.95
Talk Is Money Federico Tesio 9.00 1.0142 1.0686 0.99980 55.46 53.90 54.68 55.00 56.41 52.33 107.8 51.45 47.77 72.08 96.49 108.74 121.00 24.42 24.51
Talk Is Money Flamingo 9.00 1.0441 1.0442 0.99981 55.63 53.15 54.39 55.85 55.20 50.67 106.3 52.34 47.07 71.89 97.07 109.77 122.54 25.19 25.47
Talk Is Money Florida Derby 9.00 1.0706 1.0309 0.99961 54.97 51.22 53.09 55.45 54.06 47.46 102.4 53.68 47.37 73.12 99.49 112.86 126.33 26.37 26.85
Talk Is Money FOY 8.50 1.0255 1.0716 0.99947 54.38 51.65 53.02 53.85 55.41 48.93 103.3 52.64 48.87 74.07 99.49 112.26 125.07 25.42 25.58
Talk Is Money Miracle Wood 8.50 1.0586 1.0382 0.99974 55.00 51.91 53.46 55.46 54.09 48.82 103.8 52.99 47.37 72.76 98.66 111.76 124.95 25.90 26.29
Thunder Blitz Flamingo 9.00 1.0126 1.0664 0.99989 55.77 54.50 55.14 55.51 56.30 53.23 109.0 51.17 47.43 71.51 95.69 107.81 119.95 24.18 24.26

Definition of Pace Terms:

Slope is a measure of fatigue.  It parallels the increase in time required to negotiate an additional distance.  The higher the number, the steeper the slope, indicating that the fatigue rate is greater.  Slopes will generally fall between 0.9 (slow early-fast late) and 1.2 (fast early-slow late).

Int., or Intercept is a measure of early speed and is inversely related to the slope.  In this case, the lower the intercept, the greater the relative early speed.  Intercepts also will usually fall between 0.9 (fast early) and 1.2 (slow early).

CC, or Correlation Coefficient is a measure of how efficiently a horse's speed is used throughout the whole race.  Perfect efficiency is equal to a CC of 1.00000.  Any value below 1.00000 represents less than ideal efficiency, although it is almost always greater than 0.99900.  The very best horses continually display CC's above 0.99990 while lower quality horses may not display CCs that high.

The remaining terms are part of the "Sartin Methodology" for describing pace characteristics as discussed by Tom Brohamer ("Modern Pace Handicapping", by Tom Brohamer, William Morrow and Company, Inc,. New York, 1991):

EP (Early Pace) is velocity in fps (feet-per-second) to the second call.

SP (Sustained Pace) is the average of early pace and the final fraction, thus relating a horse's speed to the second call and his ability to finish.

AP (Average Pace) is the average  of EP and SP.

1Fr (First Fraction), 2Fr (Second Fraction) and 3Fr (Third Fraction) are the average velocities in fps between each of the calls.

TE (Total Energy) is the sum of EP and 3Fr.  It is the total available energy based on current conditions of distance, surface and track as well as inherent ability.

%E (Percent Early) is a relative measure of energy used through the second call (EP/TE).  Speed types display %E figures significantly higher than off-the-pace types, although the absolute numbers are greatly affected by the distance of a race.

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