Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
Main Menu | Search    
  

Prep Race Pace Parameters for 2001 Kentucky Derby Entries

Below is presented a variety of pace parameters for Derby entries in 2001 prep races at a mile or more on dirt.  In addition to the horse, race, and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 10f race (10fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race (10fLQ).  Following 10f is Adj10f which is the projected 10f time adjusted for the differences in track speed between the track on which the prep race was run and Churchill Downs.  The various pace parameters are described here. 

The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are displayed in the following table.

3Fr %E 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
>=51.56 <=52.08 <=121.68 <=24.94 <=25.33

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures. 
 

HORSE RACE DIST SLOPE INT CC EP SP AP 1Fr 2Fr 3Fr TE %E 4f 6f 8f 9f 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
A P Valentine Blue Grass 9.00 1.0264 1.0636 0.99990 54.87 53.19 54.03 54.96 54.68 51.52 106.4 51.56 48.04 72.84 97.86 110.43 123.04 25.02 25.19
Arctic Boy Arkansas Derby 9.00 1.0622 1.0346 0.99970 55.29 51.97 53.63 55.79 54.36 48.64 103.9 53.22 47.21 72.63 98.58 111.72 124.95 25.96 26.37
Arctic Boy Rebel 8.50 1.0248 1.0636 0.99998 54.74 53.50 54.12 55.08 54.06 52.27 107.0 51.15 47.93 72.62 97.53 110.04 122.58 24.90 25.06
Arctic Boy Southwest 8.00 1.0598 1.0363 0.99998 54.72 52.51 53.61 55.88 52.57 50.29 105.0 52.12 47.24 72.61 98.49 111.58 124.76 25.88 26.27
Balto Star Arkansas Derby 9.00 1.0692 1.0166 0.99999 56.25 53.78 55.01 57.64 53.65 51.30 107.6 52.28 45.74 70.57 95.99 108.87 121.85 25.42 25.86
Balto Star Spiral 9.00 1.0595 1.0209 0.99987 56.09 55.10 55.59 58.15 52.38 54.10 110.2 50.90 45.58 70.04 95.00 107.63 120.34 24.96 25.34
Congaree Wood Memorial 9.00 1.0502 1.0296 0.99997 56.57 54.48 55.52 57.39 55.00 52.38 109.0 51.90 45.91 70.28 95.07 107.59 120.17 24.79 25.11
Dollar Bill Blue Grass 9.00 1.0156 1.0702 0.99999 54.87 53.99 54.43 55.06 54.47 53.11 108.0 50.80 48.04 72.52 97.13 109.47 121.83 24.61 24.70
Dollar Bill Louisiana Derby 8.50 1.0587 1.0364 0.99993 54.99 52.49 53.74 55.95 53.20 50.00 105.0 52.37 47.18 72.48 98.29 111.34 124.48 25.81 26.19
Dollar Bill Risen Star 8.50 1.0206 1.0654 0.99999 54.92 53.86 54.39 55.21 54.33 52.80 107.7 50.99 47.85 72.37 97.07 109.47 121.90 24.70 24.83
Fifty Stars Lone Star Derby 9.00 0.9976 1.0912 0.99998 53.93 53.62 53.77 53.70 54.36 53.32 107.2 50.30 49.18 73.70 98.20 110.45 122.69 24.50 24.49
Fifty Stars Louisiana Derby 8.50 1.0304 1.0613 0.99999 54.49 53.15 53.82 55.09 53.40 51.80 106.3 51.26 48.05 72.97 98.14 110.81 123.52 25.18 25.37
Fifty Stars Risen Star 8.50 0.9894 1.1000 1.00000 53.51 53.81 53.66 53.40 53.71 54.11 107.6 49.73 49.63 74.12 98.52 110.70 122.86 24.40 24.34
Invisible Ink Blue Grass 9.00 1.0554 1.0324 0.99990 55.89 53.34 54.62 56.57 54.58 50.79 106.7 52.39 46.54 71.39 96.72 109.52 122.40 25.33 25.68
Invisible Ink Florida Derby 9.00 1.0554 1.0374 0.99989 55.25 52.69 53.97 55.93 53.96 50.13 105.4 52.42 47.08 72.22 97.85 110.80 123.83 25.62 25.98
Jamaican Rum Arkansas Derby 9.00 1.0164 1.0685 0.99967 55.50 53.50 54.50 55.02 56.40 51.49 107.0 51.87 47.90 72.34 96.90 109.23 121.57 24.57 24.67
Jamaican Rum San Felipe 8.50 0.9952 1.0838 0.99978 55.47 54.29 54.88 54.76 56.81 53.11 108.6 51.08 48.20 72.15 96.07 108.02 119.96 23.92 23.89
Keats Lexington 8.50 1.0685 1.0208 0.99999 55.77 53.35 54.56 57.14 53.22 50.93 106.7 52.27 46.15 71.17 96.79 109.77 122.85 25.61 26.06
Keats Spiral 9.00 1.1173 0.9921 1.00000 54.67 50.80 52.74 57.21 50.09 46.93 101.6 53.81 46.22 72.70 100.27 114.37 128.66 27.56 28.39
Millennium Wind Blue Grass 9.00 1.0441 1.0370 0.99996 56.25 54.32 55.28 56.90 55.00 52.38 108.6 51.80 46.30 70.70 95.47 107.97 120.52 24.77 25.05
Millennium Wind Louisiana Derby 8.50 1.0798 1.0158 0.99985 55.62 52.21 53.91 56.82 53.40 48.80 104.4 53.27 46.33 71.78 97.92 111.20 124.60 26.15 26.68
Monarchos Wood Memorial 9.00 1.0182 1.0623 0.99996 55.68 54.49 55.09 55.82 55.41 53.31 109.0 51.08 47.35 71.55 95.90 108.12 120.37 24.35 24.46
Monarchos Florida Derby 9.00 1.0114 1.0755 1.00000 54.41 53.97 54.19 54.75 53.76 53.52 107.9 50.43 48.36 72.87 97.49 109.82 122.17 24.61 24.68
Point Given Santa Anita Derby 9.00 1.0319 1.0471 1.00000 55.93 54.87 55.40 56.68 54.50 53.80 109.7 50.99 46.60 70.81 95.28 107.59 119.95 24.47 24.67
Point Given San Felipe 8.50 1.0245 1.0537 0.99985 56.25 54.40 55.33 56.28 56.19 52.55 108.8 51.70 46.83 70.95 95.27