Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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Prep Race Pace Parameters for 2002 Kentucky Derby Entries

Below is presented a variety of pace parameters for Derby entries in 2002 prep races at a mile or more on dirt.  In addition to the horse, race, and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 10f race (10fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race (10fLQ).  Following 10f is Adj10f which is the projected 10f time adjusted for the differences in track speed between the track on which the prep race was run and Churchill Downs.  The various pace parameters are described here. 

The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are displayed in the following table.

3Fr %E 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
>=51.56 <=52.08 <=121.68 <=24.94 <=25.33

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures. 
 

HORSE RACE DIST SLOPE INT CC EP SP AP 1Fr 2Fr 3Fr TE %E 4f 6f 8f 9f 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
Blue Burner Wood Memorial 9.00 1.0251 1.0586 0.99954 56.00 53.49 54.74 55.40 57.21 50.97 107.0 52.34 47.40 71.84 96.48 108.86 121.27 24.64 24.80
Blue Burner Florida Derby 9.00 1.0234 1.0602 0.99968 55.84 53.63 54.74 55.59 56.30 51.42 107.3 52.04 47.46 71.87 96.48 108.84 121.23 24.61 24.75
Blue Burner FOY 8.50 1.0432 1.0525 0.99997 54.35 52.57 53.46 55.13 52.92 50.78 105.1 51.71 47.92 73.15 98.76 111.67 124.64 25.60 25.88
Came Home Santa Anita Derby 9.00 1.0565 1.0323 0.99996 55.65 53.33 54.49 56.57 53.89 51.02 106.7 52.16 46.60 71.51 96.92 109.76 122.68 25.40 25.77
Came Home San Rafael 8.00 1.0204 1.0609 0.99998 55.46 54.35 54.90 55.70 55.00 53.23 108.7 51.02 47.34 71.61 96.04 108.30 120.60 24.43 24.56
Easy Grades Santa Anita Derby 9.00 1.0523 1.0378 0.99994 55.44 53.13 54.29 56.20 53.99 50.83 106.3 52.15 46.92 71.89 97.31 110.15 123.06 25.42 25.76
Easy Grades San Rafael 8.00 1.0288 1.0554 0.99992 55.46 53.74 54.60 55.70 55.00 52.02 107.5 51.59 47.30 71.78 96.50 108.93 121.40 24.72 24.90
Harlan's Holiday Blue Grass 9.00 1.0511 1.0420 0.99984 55.15 52.58 53.86 55.64 54.23 50.00 105.2 52.43 47.29 72.43 98.00 110.92 123.91 25.57 25.91
Harlan's Holiday Florida Derby 9.00 1.0430 1.0394 0.99982 56.34 53.88 55.11 56.75 55.60 51.42 107.8 52.26 46.48 70.95 95.78 108.30 120.88 24.83 25.10
Harlan's Holiday FOY 8.50 1.0419 1.0503 1.00000 54.56 53.22 53.89 55.56 52.73 51.88 106.4 51.28 47.59 72.62 98.00 110.79 123.65 25.38 25.65
Harlan's Holiday Holy Bull 8.50 1.0275 1.0691 0.99984 54.05 52.14 53.10 54.06 54.03 50.23 104.3 51.82 48.72 73.89 99.31 112.08 124.90 25.41 25.59
It'sallinthechase Louisiana Derby 8.50 1.0017 1.0879 0.99999 53.70 53.84 53.77 53.89 53.32 53.98 107.7 49.86 49.09 73.68 98.29 110.60 122.91 24.61 24.62
It'sallinthechase Risen Star 8.50 1.0426 1.0500 0.99996 54.81 52.92 53.86 55.54 53.47 51.02 105.8 51.81 47.61 72.65 98.07 110.88 123.75 25.41 25.69
It'sallinthechase Lecomte 8.00 1.0173 1.0726 1.00000 54.17 53.68 53.93 54.64 53.25 53.20 107.4 50.43 48.42 73.14 98.00 110.47 122.97 24.86 24.97
Lusty Latin Santa Anita Derby 9.00 1.0229 1.0671 0.99999 54.52 53.41 53.96 54.90 53.79 52.30 106.8 51.05 48.19 72.97 97.93 110.47 123.04 24.97 25.11
Lusty Latin El Camino Real Derby 8.50 0.9918 1.0938 0.99993 54.40 53.76 54.08 53.88 55.41 53.11 107.5 50.61 49.08 73.38 97.61 109.71 121.79 24.23 24.18
Lusty Latin Turf Paradise Derby 8.50 1.0126 1.0684 0.99999 55.10 54.89 54.99 55.63 54.09 54.68 109.8 50.18 47.65 71.84 96.14 108.31 120.51 24.30 24.37
Lusty Latin Rattlesnake 8.00 0.9944 1.0864 0.99999 54.63 54.90 54.77 54.76 54.40 55.16 109.8 49.76 48.43 72.48 96.49 108.48 120.46 24.01 23.97
Medaglia d'Oro Wood Memorial 9.00 1.0381 1.0426 0.99969 56.57 53.94 55.25 56.41 56.89 51.30 107.9 52.43 46.52 70.86 95.52 107.94 120.42 24.66 24.90
Medaglia d'Oro San Felipe 8.50 1.0306 1.0490 0.99997 56.02 54.53 55.27 56.41 55.25 53.04 109.1 51.35 46.72 70.96 95.45 107.77 120.13 24.49 24.68
Ocean Sound Blue Grass 9.00 1.0590 1.0397 0.99999 54.35 52.30 53.33 55.53 52.11 50.25 104.6 51.96 47.56 73.07 99.09 112.26 125.51 26.02 26.42
Ocean Sound Rebel 8.50 1.0461 1.0488 0.99996 54.55 52.58 53.56 55.23 53.22 50.62 105.2 51.85 47.71 72.91 98.51 111.43 124.41 25.60 25.90
Ocean Sound San Rafael 8.00 1.0289 1.0564 0.99993 55.32 53.67 54.50 55.59 54.79 52.02 107.3 51.56 47.41 71.95 96.73 109.19 121.69 24.78 24.96
Perfect Drift Spiral 9.00 1.0377 1.0465 1.00000 55.46 54.22 54.84 56.36 53.76 52.98 108.4 51.16 46.90 71.44 96.29 108.81 121.38 24.85 25.09
Perfect Drift Battaglia 8.50 1.0356 1.0479 0.99972 56.09 53.54 54.81 56.11 56.04 50.99 107.1 52.37 46.92 71.40 96.18 108.66 121.19 24.78 25.00
Perfect Drift WebnFrog 8.50 1.0337 1.0528 0.99996 55.24 53.61 54.42 55.77 54.23 51.98 107.2 51.53 47.33 71.97 96.89 109.43 122.03 24.92 25.14
Private Emblem Arkansas Derby 9.00 1.0274 1.0610 0.99998 54.78 53.51 54.14 55.15 54.06 52.24 107.0 51.19 47.82 72.54 97.48 110.02 122.60 24.95 25.12
Proud Citizen Lexington 8.50 1.0302 1.0597 0.99990 54.85 53.04 53.95 55.00 54.54 51.24 106.1 51.69 47.86 72.67 97.74 110.35 123.00 25.07 25.26
Request for Parole Spiral 9.00 1.0515 1.0333 1.00000 55.77 54.04 54.91 56.90 53.65 52.31 108.1 51.60 46.39 71.05 96.14 108.82 121.56 25.09 25.42
Request for Parole Battaglia 8.50 1.0513 1.0336 0.99979 56.27 53.44 54.85 56.71 55.41 50.61 106.9 52.64 46.40 71.06 96.16 108.83 121.58 25.09 25.42
Request for Parole WebnFrog 8.50 1.0360 1.0500 1.00000 55.20 53.94 54.57 55.98 53.72 52.68 107.9 51.16 47.18 71.81 96.75 109.31 121.91 24.93 25.16
Saarland Wood Memorial 9.00 1.0206 1.0628 0.99987 55.57 53.92 54.75 55.40 55.92 52.27 107.8 51.55 47.57 71.95 96.50 108.83 121.19 24.55 24.68
Saarland Gotham 8.00 1.0696 1.0135 0.99997 56.70 54.09 55.40 58.11 54.09 51.48 108.2 52.40 45.44 70.12 95.38 108.18 121.09 25.26 25.71
War Emblem Illinois Derby 9.00 1.0153 1.0723 0.99999 54.25 54.02 54.13 54.77 53.22 53.80 108.0 50.23 48.26 72.83 97.54 109.93 122.34 24.70 24.80
War Emblem Risen Star 8.50 1.0824 1.0141 0.99996 55.37 52.37 53.87 56.96 52.48 49.37 104.7 52.89 46.32 71.83 98.08 111.41 124.87 26.24 26.79
War Emblem Lecomte 8.00 1.0326 1.0607 0.99997 54.34 52.86 53.60 54.81 53.42 51.39 105.7 51.41 48.12 73.15 98.45 111.18 123.96 25.30 25.51
Wild Horses Arkansas Derby 9.00 1.0349 1.0572 0.99996 54.61 52.99 53.80 55.04 53.76 51.38 106.0 51.51 47.90 72.87 98.14 110.86 123.63 25.27 25.49
Wild Horses Rushaway 8.50 1.0548 1.0321 0.99990 55.93 53.40 54.66 56.65 54.54 50.86 106.8 52.37 46.46 71.26 96.52 109.29 122.13 25.26 25.61

Definition of Pace Terms:

Slope is a measure of fatigue.  It parallels the increase in time required to negotiate an additional distance.  The higher the number, the steeper the slope, indicating that the fatigue rate is greater.  Slopes will generally fall between 0.9 (slow early-fast late) and 1.2 (fast early-slow late).

Int., or Intercept is a measure of early speed and is inversely related to the slope.  In this case, the lower the intercept, the greater the relative early speed.  Intercepts also will usually fall between 0.9 (fast early) and 1.2 (slow early).

CC, or Correlation Coefficient is a measure of how efficiently a horse's speed is used throughout the whole race.  Perfect efficiency is equal to a CC of 1.00000.  Any value below 1.00000 represents less than ideal efficiency, although it is almost always greater than 0.99900.  The very best horses continually display CC's above 0.99990 while lower quality horses may not display CCs that high.

The remaining terms are part of the "Sartin Methodology" for describing pace characteristics as discussed by Tom Brohamer ("Modern Pace Handicapping", by Tom Brohamer, William Morrow and Company, Inc,. New York, 1991):

EP (Early Pace) is velocity in fps (feet-per-second) to the second call.

SP (Sustained Pace) is the average of early pace and the final fraction, thus relating a horse's speed to the second call and his ability to finish.

AP (Average Pace) is the average  of EP and SP.

1Fr (First Fraction), 2Fr (Second Fraction) and 3Fr (Third Fraction) are the average velocities in fps between each of the calls.

TE (Total Energy) is the sum of EP and 3Fr.  It is the total available energy based on current conditions of distance, surface and track as well as inherent ability.

%E (Percent Early) is a relative measure of energy used through the second call (EP/TE).  Speed types display %E figures significantly higher than off-the-pace types, although the absolute numbers are greatly affected by the distance of a race.

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