Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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Prep Race Pace Parameters for 2002 Kentucky Derby Entries

Below is presented a variety of pace parameters for Derby entries in 2002 prep races at a mile or more on dirt.  In addition to the horse, race, and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 10f race (10fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race (10fLQ).  Following 10f is Adj10f which is the projected 10f time adjusted for the differences in track speed between the track on which the prep race was run and Churchill Downs.  The various pace parameters are described here. 

The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are displayed in the following table.

3Fr %E 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
>=51.56 <=52.08 <=121.68 <=24.94 <=25.33

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures. 
 

HORSE RACE DIST SLOPE INT CC EP SP AP 1Fr 2Fr 3Fr TE %E 4f 6f 8f 9f 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
Blue Burner Wood Memorial 9.00 1.0251 1.0586 0.99954 56.00 53.49 54.74 55.40 57.21 50.97 107.0 52.34 47.40 71.84 96.48 108.86 121.27 24.64 24.80
Blue Burner Florida Derby 9.00 1.0234 1.0602 0.99968 55.84 53.63 54.74 55.59 56.30 51.42 107.3 52.04 47.46 71.87 96.48 108.84 121.23 24.61 24.75
Blue Burner FOY 8.50 1.0432 1.0525 0.99997 54.35 52.57 53.46 55.13 52.92 50.78 105.1 51.71 47.92 73.15 98.76 111.67 124.64 25.60 25.88
Came Home Santa Anita Derby 9.00 1.0565 1.0323 0.99996 55.65 53.33 54.49 56.57 53.89 51.02 106.7 52.16 46.60 71.51 96.92 109.76 122.68 25.40 25.77
Came Home San Rafael 8.00 1.0204 1.0609 0.99998 55.46 54.35 54.90 55.70 55.00 53.23 108.7 51.02 47.34 71.61 96.04 108.30 120.60 24.43 24.56
Easy Grades Santa Anita Derby 9.00 1.0523 1.0378 0.99994 55.44 53.13 54.29 56.20 53.99 50.83 106.3 52.15 46.92 71.89 97.31 110.15 123.06 25.42 25.76
Easy Grades San Rafael 8.00 1.0288 1.0554 0.99992 55.46 53.74 54.60 55.70 55.00 52.02 107.5 51.59 47.30 71.78 96.50 108.93 121.40 24.72 24.90
Harlan's Holiday Blue Grass 9.00 1.0511 1.0420 0.99984 55.15 52.58 53.86 55.64 54.23 50.00 105.2 52.43 47.29 72.43 98.00 110.92 123.91 25.57 25.91
Harlan's Holiday Florida Derby 9.00 1.0430 1.0394 0.99982 56.34 53.88 55.11 56.75 55.60 51.42 107.8 52.26 46.48 70.95 95.78 108.30 120.88 24.83 25.10
Harlan's Holiday FOY 8.50 1.0419 1.0503 1.00000 54.56 53.22 53.89 55.56 52.73 51.88 106.4 51.28 47.59 72.62 98.00 110.79 123.65 25.38 25.65
Harlan's Holiday Holy Bull 8.50 1.0275 1.0691 0.99984 54.05 52.14 53.10 54.06 54.03 50.23 104.3 51.82 48.72 73.89 99.31 112.08 124.90 25.41 25.59
It'sallinthechase Louisiana Derby 8.50 1.0017 1.0879 0.99999 53.70 53.84 53.77 53.89 53.32 53.98 107.7 49.86 49.09 73.68 98.29 110.60 122.91 24.61 24.62
It'sallinthechase Risen Star 8.50 1.0426 1.0500 0.99996 54.81 52.92 53.86 55.54 53.47 51.02 105.8 51.81 47.61 72.65 98.07 110.88 123.75 25.41 25.69
It'sallinthechase Lecomte 8.00 1.0173 1.0726 1.00000 54.17 53.68 53.93 54.64 53.25 53.20 107.4 50.43 48.42 73.14 98.00 110.47 122.97 24.86 24.97
Lusty Latin Santa Anita Derby 9.00 1.0229 1.0671 0.99999 54.52 53.41 53.96 54.90 53.79 52.30 106.8 51.05 48.19 72.97 97.93 110.47 123.04 24.97 25.11
Lusty Latin El Camino Real Derby 8.50 0.9918 1.0938 0.99993 54.40 53.76 54.08 53.88 55.41 53.11 107.5 50.61 49.08 73.38 97.61 109.71 121.79 24.23 24.18
Lusty Latin Turf Paradise Derby 8.50 1.0126 1.0684 0.99999 55.10 54.89 54.99 55.63 54.09 54.68 109.8 50.18 47.65 71.84 96.14 108.31 120.51 24.30 24.37
Lusty Latin Rattlesnake 8.00 0.9944 1.0864 0.99999 54.63 54.90 54.77 54.76 54.40 55.16 109.8 49.76 48.43 72.48 96.49 108.48 120.46 24.01 23.97
Medaglia d'Oro Wood Memorial 9.00 1.0381 1.0426 0.99969 56.57 53.94 55.25 56.41 56.89 51.30 107.9 52.43 46.52 70.86 95.52 107.94 120.42 24.66 24.90
Medaglia d'Oro San Felipe 8.50 1.0306 1.0490 0.99997 56.02 54.53 55.27 56.41 55.25 53.04 109.1 51.35 46.72 70.96 95.45 107.77 120.13 24.49 24.68
Ocean Sound Blue Grass 9.00 1.0590 1.0397 0.99999 54.35 52.30 53.33 55.53 52.11 50.25 104.6 51.96 47.56 73.07 99.09 112.26 125.51 26.02 26.42
Ocean Sound Rebel 8.50 1.0461 1.0488 0.99996 54.55 52.58 53.56 55.23 53.22 50.62 105.2 51.85 47.71 72.91 98.51 111.43 124.41 25.60 25.90
Ocean Sound San Rafael 8.00 1.0289 1.0564 0.99993 55.32 53.67 54.50 55.59 54.79 52.02 107.3 51.56 47.41 71.95 96.73 109.19 121.69 24.78 24.96
Perfect Drift Spiral 9.00 1.0377 1.0465 1.00000 55.46 54.22 54.84 56.36 53.76 52.98 108.4 51.16 46.90 71.44 96.29 108.81 121.38 24.85 25.09
Perfect Drift Battaglia 8.50 1.0356 1.0479 0.99972 56.09 53.54 54.81