Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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Prep Race Pace Parameters for 2003 Kentucky Derby Entries

Below is presented a variety of pace parameters for Derby entries in 2003 prep races at a mile or more on dirt.  In addition to the horse, race, and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 10f race (10fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race (10fLQ).  Following 10f is Adj10f which is the projected 10f time adjusted for the differences in track speed between the track on which the prep race was run and Churchill Downs.  The various pace parameters are described here. 

The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are displayed in the following table.

3Fr %E 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
>=51.56 <=52.08 <=122.34 <=24.94 <=25.33

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures. 
 

HORSE RACE DIST SLOPE INT CC EP SP AP 1Fr 2Fr 3Fr TE %E 4f 6f 8f 9f 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
Atswhatimtalknbout Santa Anita Derby 9.00 1.0331 1.0533 0.99984 55.61 53.47 54.54 55.73 55.37 51.34 106.9 52.02 47.34 71.97 96.89 109.42 122.00 24.91 25.12
Atswhatimtalknbout San Felipe 8.50 1.0269 1.0594 0.99990 55.26 53.51 54.38 55.44 54.91 51.75 107.0 51.65 47.61 72.20 97.02 109.49 122.00 24.82 24.99
Atswhatimtalknbout SA Alw 8.50 1.0160 1.0614 0.99980 56.20 54.44 55.32 55.93 56.72 52.69 108.9 51.60 47.11 71.12 95.27 107.38 119.51 24.15 24.24
Atswhatimtalknbout SA Alw 8.00 1.0550 1.0303 0.99991 56.18 53.56 54.87 57.08 54.50 50.95 107.1 52.45 46.29 71.00 96.18 108.91 121.71 25.18 25.53
Badge of Silver LA Derby 8.50 1.0494 1.0381 0.99972 55.95 53.01 54.48 56.22 55.41 50.08 106.0 52.78 46.77 71.57 96.79 109.53 122.33 25.22 25.54
Brancusi Blue Grass 9.00 1.0663 1.0299 0.99962 55.48 51.93 53.71 55.85 54.75 48.39 103.9 53.40 46.98 72.38 98.37 111.53 124.79 25.99 26.42
Brancusi San Felipe 8.50 1.0642 1.0258 0.99995 55.72 53.13 54.42 56.79 53.68 50.53 106.3 52.42 46.40 71.43 97.02 109.98 123.03 25.59 26.01
Brancusi SA MSW 8.00 1.0513 1.0372 1.00000 55.31 53.64 54.47 56.41 53.22 51.97 107.3 51.54 46.79 71.65 96.96 109.74 122.59 25.30 25.63
Buddy Gil Santa Anita Derby 9.00 1.0448 1.0393 0.99984 56.18 53.69 54.94 56.55 55.47 51.21 107.4 52.31 46.59 71.17 96.13 108.72 121.37 24.96 25.24
Buddy Gil San Felipe 8.50 1.0539 1.0351 0.99997 55.51 53.36 54.44 56.47 53.68 51.22 106.7 52.02 46.73 71.64 97.01 109.83 122.73 25.37 25.72
Buddy Gil GG Derby 8.50 1.0734 1.0195 0.99985 55.81 52.52 54.17 56.94 53.76 49.24 105.0 53.15 46.32 71.59 97.48 110.62 123.87 25.90 26.38
Domestic Dispute Santa Anita Derby 9.00 1.0731 1.0161 0.99975 56.43 52.89 54.66 57.21 54.95 49.36 105.8 53.34 45.94 70.99 96.66 109.69 122.82 25.67 26.15
Domestic Dispute San Felipe 8.50 1.0511 1.0389 0.99982 55.58 52.86 54.22 56.09 54.61 50.15 105.7 52.58 46.96 71.92 97.31 110.14 123.04 25.39 25.72
Domestic Dispute Santa Catalina 8.50 1.0256 1.0546 0.99987 56.05 54.20 55.13 56.09 55.98 52.34 108.4 51.71 46.99 71.22 95.66 107.94 120.26 24.44 24.60
Empire Maker Wood Memorial 9.00 1.0172 1.0640 0.99993 55.56 54.31 54.94 55.51 55.67 53.06 108.6 51.16 47.47 71.70 96.07 108.30 120.55 24.37 24.48
Empire Maker Florida Derby 9.00 1.0505 1.0342 0.99997 55.95 53.88 54.92 56.82 54.30 51.82 107.8 51.90 46.41 71.06 96.14 108.80 121.53 25.07 25.40
Empire Maker Sham 9.00 1.0227 1.0578 0.99992 55.86 54.35 55.10 55.95 55.68 52.84 108.7 51.39 47.16 71.39 95.80 108.07 120.36 24.42 24.56
Funny Cide Wood Memorial 9.00 1.0209 1.0607 0.99992 55.63 54.21 54.92 55.61 55.67 52.79 108.4 51.32 47.36 71.64 96.09 108.37 120.67 24.45 24.58
Funny Cide LA Derby 8.50 1.0546 1.0318 0.99984 56.09 53.32 54.71 56.65 55.00 50.55 106.6 52.62 46.42 71.19 96.42 109.18 122.01 25.23 25.58
Funny Cide Holy Bull 8.50 1.0432 1.0481 0.99998 54.90 53.16 54.03 55.61 53.51 51.42 106.3 51.65 47.44 72.41 97.75 110.53 123.38 25.34 25.62
Indian Express Santa Anita Derby 9.00 1.0715 1.0143 0.99991 56.57 53.54 55.06 57.64 54.54 50.51 107.1 52.82 45.64 70.48 95.92 108.83 121.83 25.45 25.91
Lone Star Sky Illinois Derby 9.00 1.0790 1.0249 0.99981 54.68 51.18 52.93 55.69 52.80 47.68 102.4 53.40 47.27 73.21 99.86 113.39 127.05 26.65 27.19
Lone Star Sky LA Derby 8.50 1.0257 1.0608 1.00000 54.96 53.92 54.44 55.47 53.95 52.89 107.8 50.98 47.68 72.27 97.07 109.54 122.04 24.80 24.96
Lone Star Sky Risen Star 8.50 1.0383 1.0545 0.99997 54.58 52.94 53.76 55.17 53.45 51.30 105.9 51.54 47.82 72.86 98.22 111.00 123.83 25.36 25.61
Lone Star Sky Lecomte 8.00 1.0557 1.0384 0.99994 54.94 52.57 53.76 55.88 53.20 50.19 105.1 52.28 47.21 72.43 98.14 111.13 124.20 25.70 26.07
Offlee Wild Blue Grass 9.00 1.0683 1.0310 0.99951 55.27 51.46 53.36 55.53 54.75 47.65 102.9 53.71 47.23 72.83 99.04 112.32 125.70 26.20 26.66
Offlee Wild FOY 8.50 1.0473 1.0436 0.99962 55.58 52.48 54.03 55.69 55.37 49.38 105.0 52.93 47.22 72.21 97.59 110.41 123.29 25.39 25.69
Offlee Wild Holy Bull 8.50 1.0378 1.0506 0.99999 55.04 53.57 54.31 55.72 53.71 52.10 107.1 51.39 47.36 72.14 97.23 109.87 122.57 25.10 25.34
Peace Rules Blue Grass 9.00 1.0664 1.0276 0.99974 55.62 52.31 53.97 56.17 54.54 49.01 104.6 53.17 46.73 72.01 97.87 110.97 124.16 25.86 26.29
Peace Rules Louisiana Derby 8.50 1.0378 1.0449 0.99988 56.02 53.87 54.94 56.33 55.41 51.72 107.7 52.01 46.75 71.20 95.98 108.46 120.99 24.77 25.01
Scrimshaw Lexington S 8.50 1.0594 1.0364 0.99985 55.03 52.22 53.62 55.74 53.65 49.41 104.4 52.71 47.23 72.57 98.43 111.51 124.67 25.86 26.25
Supah Blitz Florida Derby 9.00 1.0437 1.0496 0.99984 55.03 52.61 53.82 55.36 54.40 50.20 105.2 52.31 47.64 72.74 98.21 111.06 123.97 25.47 25.76
Supah Blitz FOY 8.50 1.0446 1.0448 0.99974 55.58 52.83 54.20 55.79 55.16 50.08 105.7 52.58 47.17 72.05 97.30 110.04 122.85 25.26 25.54
Ten Cents a Shine San Felipe 8.50 1.0932 1.0085 0.99984 55.30 51.43 53.36 56.68 52.66 47.56 102.9 53.74 46.42 72.31 99.03 112.64 126.39 26.72 27.36
Ten Cents a Shine FOY 8.50 1.0888 1.0193 0.99980 54.48 50.58 52.53 55.69 52.16 46.68 101.2 53.84 47.29 73.54 100.59 114.35 128.25 27.05 27.66
Ten Cents a Shine GP Alw 8.50 1.0340 1.0558 1.00000 54.69 53.48 54.08 55.50 53.22 52.27 107.0 51.11 47.68 72.51 97.63 110.28 122.97 25.12 25.34
Ten Most Wanted Illinois Derby 9.00 1.0511 1.0430 0.99997 54.82 52.72 53.77 55.69 53.20 50.63 105.4 52.01 47.40 72.59 98.23 111.17 124.19 25.63 25.97
Ten Most Wanted El Camino Real Derby 8.50 1.0711 1.0140 0.99993 56.63 53.69 55.16 57.82 54.37 50.76 107.4 52.73 45.59 70.38 95.78 108.66 121.64 25.40 25.86
Ten Most Wanted Sham 9.00 1.0660 1.0219 0.99985 56.25 53.19 54.72 57.03 54.75 50.13 106.4 52.87 46.10 71.02 96.51 109.42 122.42 25.49 25.92

Definition of Pace Terms:

Slope is a measure of fatigue.  It parallels the increase in time required to negotiate an additional distance.  The higher the number, the steeper the slope, indicating that the fatigue rate is greater.  Slopes will generally fall between 0.9 (slow early-fast late) and 1.2 (fast early-slow late).

Int., or Intercept is a measure of early speed and is inversely related to the slope.  In this case, the lower the intercept, the greater the relative early speed.  Intercepts also will usually fall between 0.9 (fast early) and 1.2 (slow early).

CC, or Correlation Coefficient is a measure of how efficiently a horse's speed is used throughout the whole race.  Perfect efficiency is equal to a CC of 1.00000.  Any value below 1.00000 represents less than ideal efficiency, although it is almost always greater than 0.99900.  The very best horses continually display CC's above 0.99990 while lower quality horses may not display CCs that high.

The remaining terms are part of the "Sartin Methodology" for describing pace characteristics as discussed by Tom Brohamer ("Modern Pace Handicapping", by Tom Brohamer, William Morrow and Company, Inc,. New York, 1991):

EP (Early Pace) is velocity in fps (feet-per-second) to the second call.

SP (Sustained Pace) is the average of early pace and the final fraction, thus relating a horse's speed to the second call and his ability to finish.

AP (Average Pace) is the average  of EP and SP.

1Fr (First Fraction), 2Fr (Second Fraction) and 3Fr (Third Fraction) are the average velocities in fps between each of the calls.

TE (Total Energy) is the sum of EP and 3Fr.  It is the total available energy based on current conditions of distance, surface and track as well as inherent ability.

%E (Percent Early) is a relative measure of energy used through the second call (EP/TE).  Speed types display %E figures significantly higher than off-the-pace types, although the absolute numbers are greatly affected by the distance of a race.

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