Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
Main Menu | Search    
  

Prep Race Pace Parameters for 2003 Kentucky Derby Entries

Below is presented a variety of pace parameters for Derby entries in 2003 prep races at a mile or more on dirt.  In addition to the horse, race, and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 10f race (10fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race (10fLQ).  Following 10f is Adj10f which is the projected 10f time adjusted for the differences in track speed between the track on which the prep race was run and Churchill Downs.  The various pace parameters are described here. 

The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are displayed in the following table.

3Fr %E 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
>=51.56 <=52.08 <=122.34 <=24.94 <=25.33

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures. 
 

HORSE RACE DIST SLOPE INT CC EP SP AP 1Fr 2Fr 3Fr TE %E 4f 6f 8f 9f 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
Atswhatimtalknbout Santa Anita Derby 9.00 1.0331 1.0533 0.99984 55.61 53.47 54.54 55.73 55.37 51.34 106.9 52.02 47.34 71.97 96.89 109.42 122.00 24.91 25.12
Atswhatimtalknbout San Felipe 8.50 1.0269 1.0594 0.99990 55.26 53.51 54.38 55.44 54.91 51.75 107.0 51.65 47.61 72.20 97.02 109.49 122.00 24.82 24.99
Atswhatimtalknbout SA Alw 8.50 1.0160 1.0614 0.99980 56.20 54.44 55.32 55.93 56.72 52.69 108.9 51.60 47.11 71.12 95.27 107.38 119.51 24.15 24.24
Atswhatimtalknbout SA Alw 8.00 1.0550 1.0303 0.99991 56.18 53.56 54.87 57.08 54.50 50.95 107.1 52.45 46.29 71.00 96.18 108.91 121.71 25.18 25.53
Badge of Silver LA Derby 8.50 1.0494 1.0381 0.99972 55.95 53.01 54.48 56.22 55.41 50.08 106.0 52.78 46.77 71.57 96.79 109.53 122.33 25.22 25.54
Brancusi Blue Grass 9.00 1.0663 1.0299 0.99962 55.48 51.93 53.71 55.85 54.75 48.39 103.9 53.40 46.98 72.38 98.37 111.53 124.79 25.99 26.42
Brancusi San Felipe 8.50 1.0642 1.0258 0.99995 55.72 53.13 54.42 56.79 53.68 50.53 106.3 52.42 46.40 71.43 97.02 109.98 123.03 25.59 26.01
Brancusi SA MSW 8.00 1.0513 1.0372 1.00000 55.31 53.64 54.47 56.41 53.22 51.97 107.3 51.54 46.79 71.65 96.96 109.74 122.59 25.30 25.63
Buddy Gil Santa Anita Derby 9.00 1.0448 1.0393 0.99984 56.18 53.69 54.94 56.55 55.47 51.21 107.4 52.31 46.59 71.17 96.13 108.72 121.37 24.96 25.24
Buddy Gil San Felipe 8.50 1.0539 1.0351 0.99997 55.51 53.36 54.44 56.47 53.68 51.22 106.7 52.02 46.73 71.64 97.01 109.83 122.73 25.37 25.72
Buddy Gil GG Derby 8.50 1.0734 1.0195 0.99985 55.81 52.52 54.17 56.94 53.76 49.24 105.0 53.15 46.32 71.59 97.48 110.62 123.87 25.90 26.38
Domestic Dispute Santa Anita Derby 9.00 1.0731 1.0161 0.99975 56.43 52.89 54.66 57.21 54.95 49.36 105.8 53.34 45.94 70.99 96.66 109.69 122.82 25.67 26.15
Domestic Dispute San Felipe 8.50 1.0511 1.0389 0.99982 55.58 52.86 54.22 56.09 54.61 50.15 105.7 52.58 46.96 71.92 97.31 110.14 123.04 25.39 25.72
Domestic Dispute Santa Catalina 8.50 1.0256 1.0546 0.99987 56.05 54.20 55.13 56.09 55.98 52.34 108.4 51.71 46.99 71.22 95.66 107.94 120.26 24.44 24.60
Empire Maker Wood Memorial 9.00 1.0172 1.0640 0.99993 55.56 54.31 54.94 55.51 55.67 53.06 108.6 51.16 47.47 71.70 96.07 108.30 120.55 24.37 24.48
Empire Maker Florida Derby 9.00 1.0505 1.0342 0.99997 55.95 53.88 54.92 56.82 54.30 51.82 107.8 51.90 46.41 71.06 96.14 108.80 121.53 25.07 25.40
Empire Maker Sham 9.00 1.0227 1.0578 0.99992 55.86 54.35 55.10 55.95 55.68 52.84 108.7 51.39 47.16 71.39 95.80 108.07 120.36 24.42 24.56
Funny Cide Wood Memorial 9.00 1.0209 1.0607 0.99992 55.63 54.21 54.92 55.61 55.67 52.79 108.4 51.32 47.36 71.64 96.09 108.37 120.67 24.45 24.58
Funny Cide LA Derby 8.50 1.0546 1.0318 0.99984 56.09 53.32 54.71 56.65 55.00 50.55 106.6 52.62 46.42 71.19 96.42 109.18 122.01 25.23 25.58
Funny Cide Holy Bull 8.50 1.0432 1.0481 0.99998 54.90 53.16 54.03 55.61 53.51 51.42 106.3 51.65 47.44 72.41 97.75 110.53 123.38 25.34 25.62
Indian Express Santa Anita Derby 9.00 1.0715 1.0143 0.99991 56.57 53.54 55.06 57.64 54.54 50.51 107.1 52.82 45.64 70.48 95.92 108.83 121.83 25.45 25.91
Lone Star Sky Illinois Derby 9.00 1.0790 1.0249 0.99981 54.68 51.18 52.93 55.69 52.80 47.68 102.4 53.40 47.27 73.21 99.86 113.39 127.05 26.65 27.19
Lone Star Sky LA Derby 8.50 1.0257 1.0608 1.00000 54.96 53.92 54.44 55.47 53.95 52.89 107.8 50.98 47.68 72.27 97.07 109.54 122.04 24.80 24.96
Lone Star Sky Risen Star 8.50 1.0383 1.0545 0.99997 54.58 52.94 53.76 55.17 53.45 51.30 105.9 51.54 47.82 72.86 98.22 111.00 123.83 25.36 25.61
Lone Star Sky Lecomte 8.00 1.0557 1.0384 0.99994 54.94 52.57