Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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Prep Race Pace Parameters for 2004 Kentucky Derby Entries

Below is presented a variety of pace parameters for Derby entries in 2004 prep races at a mile or more on dirt.  In addition to the horse, race, and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 10f race (10fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race (10fLQ).  Following 10f is Adj10f which is the projected 10f time adjusted for the differences in track speed between the track on which the prep race was run and Churchill Downs.  The various pace parameters are described here. 

The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are displayed in the following table.

3Fr %E 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
>=51.56 <=52.08 <=122.34 <=24.94 <=25.33

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures. 
 

HORSE RACE DIST SLOPE INT CC EP SP AP 1Fr 2Fr 3Fr TE %E 4f 6f 8f 9f 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
Action This Day San Felipe 8.50 1.0365 1.0544 0.99977 55.14 52.73 53.93 55.24 54.95 50.31 105.5 52.27 47.69 72.60 97.82 110.52 123.27 25.22 25.45
Action This Day Sham 9.00 1.0024 1.0813 0.99991 54.93 54.00 54.47 54.52 55.72 53.08 108.0 50.86 48.40 72.66 96.95 109.10 121.25 24.29 24.30
Birdstone Lane's End 9.00 1.0595 1.0378 0.99955 55.22 51.71 53.47 55.35 54.95 48.21 103.4 53.40 47.39 72.83 98.78 111.91 125.13 25.95 26.35
Birdstone GP Alw 2-14 8.32 1.0053 1.0835 0.99984 54.36 53.07 53.71 53.89 55.31 51.77 106.1 51.24 48.83 73.41 98.03 110.35 122.68 24.62 24.65
Borrego Arkansas Derby 9.00 1.0387 1.0492 1.00000 54.99 53.79 54.39 55.93 53.22 52.58 107.6 51.11 47.26 72.01 97.09 109.73 122.42 25.08 25.33
Borrego LA Derby 8.50 1.0134 1.0707 0.99999 54.96 54.16 54.56 55.31 54.33 53.36 108.3 50.75 47.96 72.33 96.81 109.09 121.38 24.48 24.57
Borrego Sham 9.00 1.0314 1.0534 0.99991 55.56 53.76 54.66 55.74 55.20 51.96 107.5 51.69 47.24 71.77 96.57 109.04 121.56 24.79 24.99
Castledale SA Derby 9.00 1.0201 1.0635 0.99992 55.39 53.97 54.68 55.40 55.37 52.55 107.9 51.33 47.60 71.99 96.54 108.87 121.22 24.55 24.68
Friends Lake FL Derby 9.00 1.0182 1.0718 0.99964 54.90 52.83 53.86 54.36 55.94 50.75 105.7 51.94 48.39 73.12 98.01 110.50 123.01 24.89 25.00
Imperialism SA Derby 9.00 1.0092 1.0751 0.99986 55.11 53.83 54.47 54.75 55.78 52.55 107.7 51.17 48.16 72.51 96.94 109.17 121.42 24.43 24.48
Imperialism San Rafael 8.00 1.0122 1.0667 0.99990 55.79 54.33 55.06 55.76 55.84 52.88 108.7 51.32 47.44 71.51 95.68 107.79 119.92 24.17 24.25
Limehouse Blue Grass 9.00 1.0617 1.0301 0.99996 55.42 52.97 54.20 56.44 53.48 50.52 105.9 52.33 46.70 71.82 97.47 110.45 123.53 25.65 26.06
Limehouse Tampa Bay Derby 8.50 1.0255 1.0620 0.99994 54.94 53.49 54.22 55.15 54.54 52.03 107.0 51.35 47.80 72.44 97.30 109.79 122.32 24.86 25.02
Lion Heart Blue Grass 9.00 1.0535 1.0332 0.99997 55.77 53.60 54.69 56.65 54.09 51.43 107.2 52.03 46.51 71.29 96.53 109.28 122.11 25.24 25.58
Lion Heart San Rafael 8.00 1.0736 1.0117 0.99994 56.57 53.62 55.10 57.89 54.09 50.67 107.2 52.77 45.51 70.33 95.78 108.69 121.71 25.45 25.93
Master David Wood Memorial 9.00 1.0335 1.0532 0.99997 55.22 53.69 54.45 55.69 54.30 52.16 107.4 51.41 47.36 72.01 96.95 109.50 122.09 24.93 25.15
Master David Sham 9.00 1.0396 1.0449 0.99992 55.77 53.80 54.79 56.17 55.00 51.83 107.6 51.84 46.86 71.43 96.33 108.87 121.48 24.90 25.15
Master David Santa Catalina 8.50 1.0601 1.0239 0.99998 56.30 54.02 55.16 57.46 54.13 51.73 108.0 52.13 45.94 70.61 95.78 108.52 121.34 25.18 25.56
Minister Eric Kee Alw 4-14 8.50 1.0430 1.0481 0.99963 55.39 52.47 53.93 55.36 55.46 49.55 104.9 52.80 47.43 72.39 97.72 110.50 123.33 25.33 25.61
Pollard's Vision Illinois Derby 9.00 1.0367 1.0549 0.99999 54.55 53.19 53.87 55.23 53.22 51.83 106.4 51.26 47.76 72.72 97.99 110.71 123.49 25.27 25.50
Pollard's Vision LA Derby 8.50 1.0643 1.0238 1.00000 55.74 53.69 54.71 57.30 52.95 51.64 107.4 51.90 46.19 71.12 96.60 109.50 122.49 25.48 25.89
Pollard's Vision GP Alw 2-8 8.50 1.0273 1.0578 0.99998 54.86 54.38 54.62 55.72 53.22 53.90 108.8 50.42 47.46 71.99 96.74 109.19 121.67 24.75 24.93
Pro Prado Arkansas Derby 9.00 1.0073 1.0800 1.00000 54.29 53.90 54.10 54.49 53.93 53.51 107.8 50.37 48.59 73.09 97.66 109.97 122.28 24.57 24.62
Pro Prado Southwest 8.00 1.0109 1.0750 0.99985 54.92 53.36 54.14 54.80 55.11 51.81 106.7 51.47 48.26 72.71 97.25 109.55 121.86 24.54 24.61
QuINtons Gold Rush Lexington 8.50 1.0397 1.0494 0.99999 55.00 53.45 54.22 55.72