Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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Prep Race Pace Parameters for 2004 Kentucky Derby Entries

Below is presented a variety of pace parameters for Derby entries in 2004 prep races at a mile or more on dirt.  In addition to the horse, race, and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 10f race (10fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race (10fLQ).  Following 10f is Adj10f which is the projected 10f time adjusted for the differences in track speed between the track on which the prep race was run and Churchill Downs.  The various pace parameters are described here. 

The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are displayed in the following table.

3Fr %E 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
>=51.56 <=52.08 <=122.34 <=24.94 <=25.33

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures. 
 

HORSE RACE DIST SLOPE INT CC EP SP AP 1Fr 2Fr 3Fr TE %E 4f 6f 8f 9f 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
Action This Day San Felipe 8.50 1.0365 1.0544 0.99977 55.14 52.73 53.93 55.24 54.95 50.31 105.5 52.27 47.69 72.60 97.82 110.52 123.27 25.22 25.45
Action This Day Sham 9.00 1.0024 1.0813 0.99991 54.93 54.00 54.47 54.52 55.72 53.08 108.0 50.86 48.40 72.66 96.95 109.10 121.25 24.29 24.30
Birdstone Lane's End 9.00 1.0595 1.0378 0.99955 55.22 51.71 53.47 55.35 54.95 48.21 103.4 53.40 47.39 72.83 98.78 111.91 125.13 25.95 26.35
Birdstone GP Alw 2-14 8.32 1.0053 1.0835 0.99984 54.36 53.07 53.71 53.89 55.31 51.77 106.1 51.24 48.83 73.41 98.03 110.35 122.68 24.62 24.65
Borrego Arkansas Derby 9.00 1.0387 1.0492 1.00000 54.99 53.79 54.39 55.93 53.22 52.58 107.6 51.11 47.26 72.01 97.09 109.73 122.42 25.08 25.33
Borrego LA Derby 8.50 1.0134 1.0707 0.99999 54.96 54.16 54.56 55.31 54.33 53.36 108.3 50.75 47.96 72.33 96.81 109.09 121.38 24.48 24.57
Borrego Sham 9.00 1.0314 1.0534 0.99991 55.56 53.76 54.66 55.74 55.20 51.96 107.5 51.69 47.24 71.77 96.57 109.04 121.56 24.79 24.99
Castledale SA Derby 9.00 1.0201 1.0635 0.99992 55.39 53.97 54.68 55.40 55.37 52.55 107.9 51.33 47.60 71.99 96.54 108.87 121.22 24.55 24.68
Friends Lake FL Derby 9.00 1.0182 1.0718 0.99964 54.90 52.83 53.86 54.36 55.94 50.75 105.7 51.94 48.39 73.12 98.01 110.50 123.01 24.89 25.00
Imperialism SA Derby 9.00 1.0092 1.0751 0.99986 55.11 53.83 54.47 54.75 55.78 52.55 107.7 51.17 48.16 72.51 96.94 109.17 121.42 24.43 24.48
Imperialism San Rafael 8.00 1.0122 1.0667 0.99990 55.79 54.33 55.06 55.76 55.84 52.88 108.7 51.32 47.44 71.51 95.68 107.79 119.92 24.17 24.25
Limehouse Blue Grass 9.00 1.0617 1.0301 0.99996 55.42 52.97 54.20 56.44 53.48 50.52 105.9 52.33 46.70 71.82 97.47 110.45 123.53 25.65 26.06
Limehouse Tampa Bay Derby 8.50 1.0255 1.0620 0.99994 54.94 53.49 54.22 55.15 54.54 52.03 107.0 51.35 47.80 72.44 97.30 109.79 122.32 24.86 25.02
Lion Heart Blue Grass 9.00 1.0535 1.0332 0.99997 55.77 53.60 54.69 56.65 54.09 51.43 107.2 52.03 46.51 71.29 96.53 109.28 122.11 25.24 25.58
Lion Heart San Rafael 8.00 1.0736 1.0117 0.99994 56.57 53.62 55.10 57.89 54.09 50.67 107.2 52.77 45.51 70.33 95.78 108.69 121.71 25.45 25.93
Master David Wood Memorial 9.00 1.0335 1.0532 0.99997 55.22 53.69 54.45 55.69 54.30 52.16 107.4 51.41 47.36 72.01 96.95 109.50 122.09 24.93 25.15
Master David Sham 9.00 1.0396 1.0449 0.99992 55.77 53.80 54.79 56.17 55.00 51.83 107.6 51.84 46.86 71.43 96.33 108.87 121.48 24.90 25.15
Master David Santa Catalina 8.50 1.0601 1.0239 0.99998 56.30 54.02 55.16 57.46 54.13 51.73 108.0 52.13 45.94 70.61 95.78 108.52 121.34 25.18 25.56
Minister Eric Kee Alw 4-14 8.50 1.0430 1.0481 0.99963 55.39 52.47 53.93 55.36 55.46 49.55 104.9 52.80 47.43 72.39 97.72 110.50 123.33 25.33 25.61
Pollard's Vision Illinois Derby 9.00 1.0367 1.0549 0.99999 54.55 53.19 53.87 55.23 53.22 51.83 106.4 51.26 47.76 72.72 97.99 110.71 123.49 25.27 25.50
Pollard's Vision LA Derby 8.50 1.0643 1.0238 1.00000 55.74 53.69 54.71 57.30 52.95 51.64 107.4 51.90 46.19 71.12 96.60 109.50 122.49 25.48 25.89
Pollard's Vision GP Alw 2-8 8.50 1.0273 1.0578 0.99998 54.86 54.38 54.62 55.72 53.22 53.90 108.8 50.42 47.46 71.99 96.74 109.19 121.67 24.75 24.93
Pro Prado Arkansas Derby 9.00 1.0073 1.0800 1.00000 54.29 53.90 54.10 54.49 53.93 53.51 107.8 50.37 48.59 73.09 97.66 109.97 122.28 24.57 24.62
Pro Prado Southwest 8.00 1.0109 1.0750 0.99985 54.92 53.36 54.14 54.80 55.11 51.81 106.7 51.47 48.26 72.71 97.25 109.55 121.86 24.54 24.61
QuINtons Gold Rush Lexington 8.50 1.0397 1.0494 0.99999 55.00 53.45 54.22 55.72 53.62 51.89 106.9 51.45 47.35 72.17 97.33 110.01 122.75 25.16 25.41
Read The Footnotes FL Derby 9.00 1.0474 1.0460 0.99940 55.46 52.10 53.78 55.21 55.94 48.74 104.2 53.23 47.49 72.62 98.16 111.05 124.01 25.54 25.85
Read The Footnotes FOY 8.50 1.0127 1.0685 0.99990 55.48 54.17 54.83 55.25 55.93 52.87 108.3 51.23 47.66 71.86 96.16 108.34 120.54 24.30 24.38
Smarty Jones Arkansas Derby 9.00 1.0445 1.0423 1.00000 55.31 53.84 54.58 56.30 53.42 52.38 107.7 51.35 46.89 71.62 96.72 109.38 122.11 25.10 25.39
Smarty Jones Southwest 8.00 1.0885 1.0055 1.00000 55.62 53.00 54.31 57.64 51.96 50.38 106.0 52.47 45.80 71.21 97.39 110.72 124.17 26.19 26.78
Smarty Jones Rebel 8.50 1.0058 1.0743 0.99999 54.93 55.05 54.99 55.25 54.30 55.17 110.1 49.89 47.85 71.94 96.08 108.16 120.26 24.14 24.17
Smarty Jones Count Fleet 8.32 1.0435 1.0449 0.99995 55.31 53.32 54.32 55.96 54.06 51.34 106.6 51.88 47.11 71.92 97.10 109.79 122.55 25.18 25.46
Song of the Sword Lexington 8.50 1.0268 1.0626 0.99989 54.83 53.12 53.97 54.98 54.53 51.42 106.2 51.63 47.96 72.72 97.71 110.27 122.87 24.99 25.16
Song of the Sword Illinois Derby 9.00 1.0262 1.0662 0.99992 54.41 52.89 53.65 54.55 54.13 51.37 105.8 51.43 48.31 73.23 98.38 111.02 123.70 25.15 25.32
Tapit Wood Memorial 9.00 0.9965 1.0870 0.99982 54.90 53.89 54.40 54.20 56.25 52.88 107.8 50.93 48.63 72.85 97.03 109.11 121.19 24.18 24.16
The Cliff's Edge Blue Grass 9.00 0.9829 1.0990 0.99979 54.79 54.09 54.44 53.76 56.76 53.39 108.2 50.64 49.07 73.09 96.98 108.88 120.76 23.89 23.78
The Cliff's Edge FL Derby 9.00 0.9964 1.0924 0.99921 54.76 52.70 53.73 53.30 57.58 50.63 105.4 51.96 49.24 73.75 98.24 110.47 122.70 24.48 24.46
The Cliff's Edge Sam Davis 8.50 1.0085 1.0823 0.99991 54.13 53.04 53.59 53.92 54.53 51.95 106.1 51.02 48.92 73.63 98.41 110.83 123.25 24.78 24.84

Definition of Pace Terms:

Slope is a measure of fatigue.  It parallels the increase in time required to negotiate an additional distance.  The higher the number, the steeper the slope, indicating that the fatigue rate is greater.  Slopes will generally fall between 0.9 (slow early-fast late) and 1.2 (fast early-slow late).

Int., or Intercept is a measure of early speed and is inversely related to the slope.  In this case, the lower the intercept, the greater the relative early speed.  Intercepts also will usually fall between 0.9 (fast early) and 1.2 (slow early).

CC, or Correlation Coefficient is a measure of how efficiently a horse's speed is used throughout the whole race.  Perfect efficiency is equal to a CC of 1.00000.  Any value below 1.00000 represents less than ideal efficiency, although it is almost always greater than 0.99900.  The very best horses continually display CC's above 0.99990 while lower quality horses may not display CCs that high.

The remaining terms are part of the "Sartin Methodology" for describing pace characteristics as discussed by Tom Brohamer ("Modern Pace Handicapping", by Tom Brohamer, William Morrow and Company, Inc,. New York, 1991):

EP (Early Pace) is velocity in fps (feet-per-second) to the second call.

SP (Sustained Pace) is the average of early pace and the final fraction, thus relating a horse's speed to the second call and his ability to finish.

AP (Average Pace) is the average  of EP and SP.

1Fr (First Fraction), 2Fr (Second Fraction) and 3Fr (Third Fraction) are the average velocities in fps between each of the calls.

TE (Total Energy) is the sum of EP and 3Fr.  It is the total available energy based on current conditions of distance, surface and track as well as inherent ability.

%E (Percent Early) is a relative measure of energy used through the second call (EP/TE).  Speed types display %E figures significantly higher than off-the-pace types, although the absolute numbers are greatly affected by the distance of a race.

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